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Post-poll Brexit poll

Will Britain actually leave the EU

  • Yes, they're gone

    Votes: 18 54.5%
  • No, they'll stay

    Votes: 8 24.2%
  • It depends (explain)

    Votes: 3 9.1%
  • Magical scones

    Votes: 4 12.1%

  • Total voters
    33
Faster growth of UK imports vs. exports has resulted in a widening trade deficit, to about £61 billion (2014) against just £11.2 billion in 1999. The UK however has been expanding its foreign exports and imports have grown steadily each year since 1999. It will also be better off by £21 billion per year when it no longer pays membership fees to the EU.

Who gives a fuck about the trade deficit? Are you a mercantilist? The fact that the money passes through the UK is what counts. The turnover.

If you buy more than you sell, or if sales are less than purchases then eventually there will be problems which borrowing alone will on the long term not resolve. It's impossible to do this with government restrictions on individual companies but rather good economic bookkeeping
 
Who gives a fuck about the trade deficit? Are you a mercantilist? The fact that the money passes through the UK is what counts. The turnover.

If you buy more than you sell, or if sales are less than purchases then eventually there will be problems which borrowing alone will on the long term not resolve. It's impossible to do this with government restrictions on individual companies but rather good economic bookkeeping

A nations trade deficit isn't like your personal bank account. That's a common misunderstanding. What a trade deficit means in a modern economy is that people in other countries think that investing in your country is a worthwhile investment. They want to give you free money because they value you. That puts a pressure on the receiving country. They have to actually put that money to good work, growing it. They can't just piss it away on buying houses and consumer goods. But if they have sensible policies, a trade deficit can be a pure boon.

So trade deficits can be bad, especially for developing nations (lacking in worthwhile investments). But for the largest well developed western economies (like the UK), I have a hard time seeing how they could suffer from it. For them it's only a good thing.
 
If you buy more than you sell, or if sales are less than purchases then eventually there will be problems which borrowing alone will on the long term not resolve. It's impossible to do this with government restrictions on individual companies but rather good economic bookkeeping

A nations trade deficit isn't like your personal bank account. That's a common misunderstanding. What a trade deficit means in a modern economy is that people in other countries think that investing in your country is a worthwhile investment. They want to give you free money because they value you. That puts a pressure on the receiving country. They have to actually put that money to good work, growing it. They can't just piss it away on buying houses and consumer goods. But if they have sensible policies, a trade deficit can be a pure boon.

So trade deficits can be bad, especially for developing nations (lacking in worthwhile investments). But for the largest well developed western economies (like the UK), I have a hard time seeing how they could suffer from it. For them it's only a good thing.

Long term a trade deficit will be bad. Of course if someone paid £100 million for coal and then sold this for a net profit of £20 million then in that modern thinking will reduce the deficit in real terms. However less people in the supply chain of the importer will benefit since this is simply importing selling and transportation. Less manufacturing jobs will benefit unless some processes are required.
 
A nations trade deficit isn't like your personal bank account. That's a common misunderstanding. What a trade deficit means in a modern economy is that people in other countries think that investing in your country is a worthwhile investment. They want to give you free money because they value you. That puts a pressure on the receiving country. They have to actually put that money to good work, growing it. They can't just piss it away on buying houses and consumer goods. But if they have sensible policies, a trade deficit can be a pure boon.

So trade deficits can be bad, especially for developing nations (lacking in worthwhile investments). But for the largest well developed western economies (like the UK), I have a hard time seeing how they could suffer from it. For them it's only a good thing.

Long term a trade deficit will be bad. Of course if someone paid £100 million for coal and then sold this for a net profit of £20 million then in that modern thinking will reduce the deficit in real terms. However less people in the supply chain of the importer will benefit since this is simply importing selling and transportation. Less manufacturing jobs will benefit unless some processes are required.

WTF are you on about?
 
Brexit is not that important

Brexit is not that important, except for the uncertainty that it has created in the short term and as a sign of unrest and dissatisfaction with the status quo in certain sections of British society.

The uncertainty will pass. People have short attention spans and they crave stability.

The initial response in the EU was to come down hard on the UK to discourage other countries from leaving. But finally there is a purpose to the EU, trade, and there is too much trade between the UK and the EU for there to be any meaningful separation between them. It will be on paper only, like it is currently between the EU and Switzerland and Norway, membership in the EU in all respects but name.

Ironically, the only thing that the UK will give up is one of the main things that the Brexit was suppose to provide to them, control over the regulations that the EU applies to trade and to trade goods. The UK will still be forced to follow the regulations but will lose any say in the writing of the regulations.

There is no reason to think that situation with immigration will change because of the Brexit either. The UK right now controls their own immigration. They never accepted EU controls over immigration. Whatever EU immigration type policies that the UK has right now are British policies that are written into British law. The UK doesn't have to leave the EU to change their immigration policies.
 
Long term a trade deficit will be bad. Of course if someone paid £100 million for coal and then sold this for a net profit of £20 million then in that modern thinking will reduce the deficit in real terms. However less people in the supply chain of the importer will benefit since this is simply importing selling and transportation. Less manufacturing jobs will benefit unless some processes are required.

WTF are you on about?

If investment takes place there is a benefit to the country receiving it, and hopefully later to the investors.

Theoretically an agent purchase Motors from Siemens to the value of £5 million is sent to the UK.
He sells these to his client in the UK for £6 million.
A small benefit for employment is the payment of workers for the movement of goods and the Clients shop where they are coupled with large offshore pumping stations.
He banks one million leaving $5 million and buys refined oil from BP Scotland for the five million and sells it to Germany for $5.3 million after also paying for tax insurance and transport costs.
This means he made about 1.3 million and the trade balance was .5 million surplus in exports, but it means Germany has a deficit of .3 million. (However, this would in practice not be so clear as Britain is covering a lot of transactions for import and export.

There are a lot of theories around trade deficits but if a country is expending more than it sells, that would be a problem.
 
Ironically, the only thing that the UK will give up is one of the main things that the Brexit was suppose to provide to them, control over the regulations that the EU applies to trade and to trade goods. The UK will still be forced to follow the regulations but will lose any say in the writing of the regulations.

That's an excellent point. That was Sweden's main argument for joining the EU. We were already Europe's bitch at that point. Whatever Brussels decided we just had to adapt to, since all our main trade partners were in the EU. With joining the EU we went from having no say, to having some say. The UK will make the opposite journey.
 
Brexit is not that important, except for the uncertainty that it has created in the short term and as a sign of unrest and dissatisfaction with the status quo in certain sections of British society.

The uncertainty will pass. People have short attention spans and they crave stability.

The initial response in the EU was to come down hard on the UK to discourage other countries from leaving. But finally there is a purpose to the EU, trade, and there is too much trade between the UK and the EU for there to be any meaningful separation between them. It will be on paper only, like it is currently between the EU and Switzerland and Norway, membership in the EU in all respects but name.

Ironically, the only thing that the UK will give up is one of the main things that the Brexit was suppose to provide to them, control over the regulations that the EU applies to trade and to trade goods. The UK will still be forced to follow the regulations but will lose any say in the writing of the regulations.

There is no reason to think that situation with immigration will change because of the Brexit either. The UK right now controls their own immigration. They never accepted EU controls over immigration. Whatever EU immigration type policies that the UK has right now are British policies that are written into British law. The UK doesn't have to leave the EU to change their immigration policies.

If the UK trades with China or the US, then the goods it exports will be subject to local import duties and possible restrictions on certain goods. Likewise it affects goods being imported to the UK. Frequently they can make trade deals by giving each other some concessions. This is something done by mutual exchange.

For instance all goods imported into China that bear Eu conformity such as electrical appliances are subject to import tariffs. This is because some Chinese manufacturers specialize in goods to the same standard, both for export and import.

Even if the goods made in China to Eu standard are re imported they are subject to tax. For instance where air conditioning units were installed in porta cabins fabricated outside of China but then imported in for installation on a production facility.

Britain will always require skills from abroad but within its reason, otherwise this will but strains on education, healthcare, housing and other public services, and pricing of low-skilled British labour out of the market.

Europe has allowed a free flow of migrants through its member states, through Europe and little has been done to block those boarding trucks or trains in the English Channel. I don’t see a great problem in general for migration. From experience in working abroad on contract, work permits are available and do not cause such a problem.

Since Merkel invited huge amounts into Germany and where in some cases checks were non existent (as many refused to give dates of birth and had no ID), you can’t blame economic migrants who want a better life abroad from taking advantage of such limp policies.

Britain can, however make its own laws which cannot be overturned in an EU court. It has a current trade deficit with Europe where it is importing more than it exports, but it will further increase its markets abroad.

In the hands of the main two political parties however, much of the potential gains from Brexit would be watered down through careless economic policies. It seems that Teresa May, if she becomes prime minister will not dither on the leave process like some of her other colleagues. Nonetheless this will take time as a lot of interconnected issues will be discussed to seek mutual benefit.
 
The exit should be done as quickly as possible. Get it done already! England will be the better for it.

The trouble is, even if that were true, the rest of the UK will have to suffer just as much, and will it buggery be better for them!
 
The exit should be done as quickly as possible. Get it done already! England will be the better for it.

The trouble is, even if that were true, the rest of the UK will have to suffer just as much, and will it buggery be better for them!

Perhaps Teresa May if elected would expediently start the process. She is anti BREXIT, so there is also a chance she could be wooed by the Euro flirts. However, the other candidates seem a bit limp sausage to me. The process will take some time simply because there are a lot of issues and there might be a bit of buggery here and there.
 
The trouble is, even if that were true, the rest of the UK will have to suffer just as much, and will it buggery be better for them!

Perhaps Teresa May if elected would expediently start the process. She is anti BREXIT, so there is also a chance she could be wooed by the Euro flirts. However, the other candidates seem a bit limp sausage to me. The process will take some time simply because there are a lot of issues and there might be a bit of buggery here and there.


The only thing to say for Theresa May is that she comes of respectable people, which is more than you can say for all the morally-grubby chancers from Thatcher on. The difficulty is that no-one knows what the Brexit voters actually wanted, except what was impossible, so how can anyone please them?
 
Perhaps Teresa May if elected would expediently start the process. She is anti BREXIT, so there is also a chance she could be wooed by the Euro flirts. However, the other candidates seem a bit limp sausage to me. The process will take some time simply because there are a lot of issues and there might be a bit of buggery here and there.


The only thing to say for Theresa May is that she comes of respectable people, which is more than you can say for all the morally-grubby chancers from Thatcher on. The difficulty is that no-one knows what the Brexit voters actually wanted, except what was impossible, so how can anyone please them?

I think it will take more than the stipulated two years necessary to finalize this process. Teresa May could become quite popular but we don't know yet how she will progress.
 
Perhaps Teresa May if elected would expediently start the process. She is anti BREXIT, so there is also a chance she could be wooed by the Euro flirts. However, the other candidates seem a bit limp sausage to me. The process will take some time simply because there are a lot of issues and there might be a bit of buggery here and there.


The only thing to say for Theresa May is that she comes of respectable people, which is more than you can say for all the morally-grubby chancers from Thatcher on. The difficulty is that no-one knows what the Brexit voters actually wanted, except what was impossible, so how can anyone please them?
The referendum wasn't about pleasing people, only about leaving the E.U. Theresa May will give them that. Half the population, possibly more, will be unhappy just because of that. And very few will really see any substantial improvement in their lives because of it. Many will suffer as a direct consequence. It's already started. And I doubt very much if the poorest among British people will have more jobs, or better paid jobs, just because Britain will have left the E.U. Some will, certainly, but most won't. And political parties don't seem to have any good answer for those left out. All you can expect is wages going down for the poorest and public services being reduced. The best that can happen is if you have Theresa. At least you'll know where you're going. And Labour won't be an alternative for quite some time now. You may have May for a while. At least it will be interesting to see what she does.
EB
 
The only thing to say for Theresa May is that she comes of respectable people, which is more than you can say for all the morally-grubby chancers from Thatcher on. The difficulty is that no-one knows what the Brexit voters actually wanted, except what was impossible, so how can anyone please them?
The referendum wasn't about pleasing people, only about leaving the E.U. Theresa May will give them that. Half the population, possibly more, will be unhappy just because of that. And very few will really see any substantial improvement in their lives because of it. Many will suffer as a direct consequence. It's already started. And I doubt very much if the poorest among British people will have more jobs, or better paid jobs, just because Britain will have left the E.U. Some will, certainly, but most won't. And political parties don't seem to have any good answer for those left out. All you can expect is wages going down for the poorest and public services being reduced. The best that can happen is if you have Theresa. At least you'll know where you're going. And Labour won't be an alternative for quite some time now. You may have May for a while. At least it will be interesting to see what she does.
EB

There is nothig to suggest that wages in theselves would go down. Europe has its problems.Spain and Portugal cannot keep their budget deficits down, and are facing a fine (which I understand will be levied later). Italy has financial problems, Greece has still a lot of issues despite the bale outs. Why would the poorest be worse of if the UK restricts the migration of poorer workers. Public services have already been reduced. The UK has extra revenue from no longer paying the EU (net about 21 million per day). Some could also go to paying off the debts.
 
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