• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

Potentially the biggest scientific story in history?

It was discussed on this forum when the story broke. The problem with the alien structure idea appears to be the absence of radio signals, which are presumably associated with civilisation. Of course, there is the possibility that such a highly advanced culture, if it exists, no longer broadcasts in radio waves.
 
9148130.jpg
 
I have a hypothesis... The star has a ring of planetary debris in an eccentric orbit. Over a period of possibly 100's of years, the plane of the ring slowly 'wobbles' into our plane of view, either obstructing, or reflecting light, changing the overall luminosity of the body.

Saturn behaves this way... the luminosity of Saturn increases when the rings are more visible (perpendicular to our plane of view) and decreases when they are less visible (parallel to our plane of view). The period of change would be quite different than that of a transiting body (such as a 'whole' planet or satellite)
 
The article is not claiming aliens.

Naturally, the speculation didn’t last long, as further observations revealed no signs of intelligent life or artificial structures.

But the mystery of the strange dimming has not gone away. What’s more, in a paper posted this past Friday to arXiv, Benjamin T. Montet and Joshua D. Simon (astronomers from the Cahill Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics at Caltech and the Carnegie Institute of Science, respectively) have shown how an analysis of the star’s long-term behavior has only deepened the mystery further.

Doesn't seem like potentially the biggest scientific story in history, but what do I know?
 
It was discussed on this forum when the story broke. The problem with the alien structure idea appears to be the absence of radio signals, which are presumably associated with civilisation. Of course, there is the possibility that such a highly advanced culture, if it exists, no longer broadcasts in radio waves.
You can't hear their internal radio communication from such distance using SETI antennas.
 
I have a hypothesis... The star has a ring of planetary debris in an eccentric orbit. Over a period of possibly 100's of years, the plane of the ring slowly 'wobbles' into our plane of view, either obstructing, or reflecting light, changing the overall luminosity of the body.

Saturn behaves this way... the luminosity of Saturn increases when the rings are more visible (perpendicular to our plane of view) and decreases when they are less visible (parallel to our plane of view). The period of change would be quite different than that of a transiting body (such as a 'whole' planet or satellite)

I'm not up on all the details, but I thought there wasn't the presence of an infrared signal that would accompany a significant debris (or other kind of) disk.

- - - Updated - - -

Could a black hole along the line of sight from us be slowly bending more and more light?

I'm pretty sure that microlensing causes increases in brightness, not decreases.
 
Oh, come on now! It's obviously, the name gives it away!

A giant space cat is playing with it!
 
Any currently inexplicable observation is potentially the biggest scientific story in history. However to become actually the biggest scientific story in history, further evidence is needed; and right now, we simply do not have that evidence, nor the technical means to obtain it. So this is in the 'unexplained' basket, awaiting a future set of observations that will allow us to make sense of it - at which point it may become a mildly interesting anomaly that caught our attention before the astronomers were able to pin a mundane (but probably rare) explanation on it; Or (rather less likely) it could prove to be one of the biggest scientific stories in history.

I would like the explanation to be intelligent activity on the part of an alien civilization. But what I would like has no bearing on reality. So the science will have to wait. It might inspire some interesting science fiction, of course. And hypothesizing is fun. But in the absence of sufficient data to render any unfalsified hypothesis more plausible than any other, all we can say scientifically is 'We don't yet know', which unfortunately doesn't make for a very long-running debate.
 
It was discussed on this forum when the story broke. The problem with the alien structure idea appears to be the absence of radio signals, which are presumably associated with civilisation. Of course, there is the possibility that such a highly advanced culture, if it exists, no longer broadcasts in radio waves.
You can't hear their internal radio communication from such distance using SETI antennas.


I'm just repeating what was in the reports, the researchers presumably understanding signal strength in relation to their ability to detect potential signals.

What sort of signal strength is being assumed? Similar to Earth output of radio, TV and whatever else? What would you expect a civilisation building a Dyson sphere to put out, a hundred times more, a million times more, hundreds of millions?

I don't know. I couldn't guess. Maybe something else entirely.
 
You can't hear their internal radio communication from such distance using SETI antennas.


I'm just repeating what was in the reports, the researchers presumably understanding signal strength in relation to their ability to detect potential signals.

What sort of signal strength is being assumed? Similar to Earth output of radio, TV and whatever else? What would you expect a civilisation building a Dyson sphere to put out, a hundred times more, a million times more, hundreds of millions?

I don't know. I couldn't guess. Maybe something else entirely.

One good way to determine what radio signals we might be able to detect from an alien civilization is to look at how far from Earth we would be able to detect our own signals.

The answer turns out to be that space is too big for us to detect most of our rf emissions from even fairly close range; The inverse square law is against us, and if SETI was looking at a copy of the Earth from a distance of as little as a few dozen lightyears, TV signals would be very hard to discriminate from background noise, and almost impossible to decode.

That makes a lot of sense - radio engineers and designers of transmitters want to use the weakest signal possible, conversant with them being clear enough to terrestrial viewers and listeners - so they take active steps to reduce the transmission of their signals into space, using aerials designed to deflect the signals along the ground, and using only enough power to reach the maximum intended range for their station.

The exception to this is the big cold-war era active radar arrays (eg DEW), designed to illuminate small, fast-moving targets coming in from the edge of space on ballistic trajectories. These signals carried very little information, but were powerful (particularly in the earlier part of the Cold War), regular, and were deliberately transmitted away from the Earth's surface. Even these signals would be beyond the ability of current SETI detectors, or even of proposed facilities like the Square Kilometre Array, past a range of (at most) a few hundred lightyears.

Tabby's Star is about 1,480 lightyears from Earth. If we make the (rather dodgy) assumption that ~1,480 years ago they had similar radars in operation (bear in mind that ours were only in place for a few decades, so we would need to be very fortunate with the timing for that assumption to hold up), then they are still about five times as far away as our most optimistic detection range.

The Earth has only been making radio noise for a century - and already we are cutting it back dramatically, not just as a result of the end of the Cold War, but also as the use of fibre-optics and other cable based networks increases, and as the efficiency of the remaining broadcast equipment improves. It would be reasonable to assume that the Earth's life as a radio source, even if our civilization persists indefinitely, might be as short as a couple of centuries in total; and our time as a bright source, visible tens or hundreds of lightyears away, was likely only half a century or so.

Add to that that the really 'bright' signals are radar scan signals, so they are regular and 'bright', but carry very little information. If we detected such signals, we might well attribute them to an unknown natural source, rather than to aliens, as we have been caught out before (eg by Pulsars). A TV, voice or morse code signal couldn't be explained away so easily - but these sources are far weaker, and to detect them would require much larger arrays of radio telescopes than would be needed to pick up the DEW Radar signals.

I would expect a civilization that was building a Dyson sphere to be putting out very little radio noise; They might well use laser communications in their space program (more efficient and less prone to interception than radio), and fibre optic or other cable technology on the surface of their planet. Certainly that's the way we are heading, and we are nowhere close to being able to consider building any kind of solar orbiting megastructures.

The absence of detectable and clearly artificial radio frequency transmissions from that star system is therefore to be expected; It would be expected if they were as 'noisy' as we were at our peak radio brightness, and is even more to be expected if they are (as I think would be almost certain) far less noisy than our rather lowly civilization.

Assuming they have a SETSI (Search for Extra Tabby's Star Intelligence) program with far larger collection area than our puny Square Kilometre effort (if they are at 5x the SKA detection range, then they need to have a 25x larger array), and that they have selected Sol as a possible life-hosting star, they might see our first powerful signals in about 1,430 year's time. Reversing the polarity, we can say that if they had an identical history to ours, and if they started building their Dyson sphere a thousand years after the end of their Cold War era, then we could detect their radar 'leakage' in about the year 2396 - but only if we have built a SETI detection array on the order of 25 - 100 km2, and only if we are including Tabby's star as one of our target systems to listen to.

In short, even if we got lucky and pointed our ears directly at a star which hosted a 'radio noisy' civilization, we might not hear a peep on our radio telescopes. So while an unambiguously artificial signal that was demonstrably generated outside our solar system would be positive evidence for ETI, its absence tells us nothing very much either way.
 
Last edited:
Bilby, I think that's a good summary.

Here is what they had to say in the early reports:

''Seti said that if large scale alien engineering projects really are underway around KIC 8462852, they would pick up signals made by intense microwave beams that could be used to power spacecraft.''

'This is the first time we've used the Allen Telescope Array to look for relatively wide-band signals, a type of emission that is generally not considered in Seti searches', said Seti Institute scientist Gerry Harp.

Scientists analysing the data found no clear evidence for either type of signal between the frequencies of one and 10 GHz.

They believe this rules out the presence of omnidirectional transmitters - large antenna - of approximately 100 times today's total terrestrial energy usage in the case of the narrow-band signals, and ten million times that usage for broad band emissions.''

''Seti scientists note that any society able to build such a megastructure would have access to energy at a level approaching 1027 watts, so that massive transmitters would be detected even if only a tiny percentage of this energy were used for signalling.''


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...errestrial-origin-admits-doesn-t-know-is.html
 
Bilby, I think that's a good summary.

Here is what they had to say in the early reports:

''Seti said that if large scale alien engineering projects really are underway around KIC 8462852, they would pick up signals made by intense microwave beams that could be used to power spacecraft.''

'This is the first time we've used the Allen Telescope Array to look for relatively wide-band signals, a type of emission that is generally not considered in Seti searches', said Seti Institute scientist Gerry Harp.

Scientists analysing the data found no clear evidence for either type of signal between the frequencies of one and 10 GHz.

They believe this rules out the presence of omnidirectional transmitters - large antenna - of approximately 100 times today's total terrestrial energy usage in the case of the narrow-band signals, and ten million times that usage for broad band emissions.''

''Seti scientists note that any society able to build such a megastructure would have access to energy at a level approaching 1027 watts, so that massive transmitters would be detected even if only a tiny percentage of this energy were used for signalling.''


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...errestrial-origin-admits-doesn-t-know-is.html

Sure. IF an advanced civilization decided to use insanely powerful transmitters; or IF they used microwave beam propulsion spacecraft, then we MIGHT have been able to detect it. But none of that seems very plausible - to whom are they supposed to be transmitting these massively powerful signals? What happens if they use ion engines, or Orion type nuclear propulsion?

We have radars that can transmit in the 10MW power range here on Earth - but I don't see anyone using a 10MW radio transmitter to talk to anyone else as a likely solution any time soon - why use 10MW when a few mW will do the job? And if the point of the Dyson Sphere is to harness the 1027W of power coming from their star, why would you then waste that power on a transmitter that is a billion times more powerful than you need to talk to someone anywhere in your neighbourhood?

The assumptions here just don't add up to anything other than wishful thinking - they want to be able to detect aliens, so they come up with fanciful scenarios that would render such detection possible. But nobody told the aliens that they had to develop and deploy microwave propulsion systems, or multi-exawatt range cellphones - and it seems highly likely that they wouldn't want to do so. I can't think of a likely scenario in which we would do such wasteful things, so why would we assume that an advanced alien civilization would do them?
 
I wonder if it could be an instrument not behaving itself on Kepler? We need other telescopes to detect this change in brightness as well before we can even say it is changing.
 
Size of the antenna is proportional to distance. So if you want to get alien satellite TV transmission from 1000 light years away you will need antenna which is 1000.*365.*24*3600*300000./30000. = 315360000000 times bigger than normal one.
that's 315 billions times bigger. Ordinary SatTV antenna is 0.5 meter in diameter then you will need antenna with 1 astronomical unit in diameter.
So we will need to build a Dyson sphere here to get their signals.
Also, I ignored background from the star which could become significant because distance to the star is the same as distance to the satellite unlike normal situation.
It's really hopeless, people.
 
Last edited:
Size of the antenna is proportional to distance. So if you want to get alien satellite TV transmission fro 1000 light years away you will need antenna which is 1000.*365.*24*3600*300000./30000. = 315360000000 times bigger than normal one.
that's 315 billions time bigger. Ordinary SatTV antenna is 0.5 meter in diameter then you will need antenna with 1 astronomical unit in diameter.
So we will need to build a Dyson sphere here to get their signals.

Or just an array of antennae that has a diameter of 1 AU. We could simply launch a few hundred or a few thousand such antennae to orbit the sun evenly spaced at a distance of 75 million km (0.5AU) to achieve this - not cheap, but much cheaper than a Dyson Sphere :D

The bandwidth would suck, but it's OK if we just want to detect whether there is a signal - it's not like we want to download alien porn or anything.

Well, most of us probably don't.

Well, some of us.

Probably.
 
I wonder if it could be an instrument not behaving itself on Kepler? We need other telescopes to detect this change in brightness as well before we can even say it is changing.
That's highly unlikely, because other stars are fine.
 
Back
Top Bottom