Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[Jayjay]

He doesn’t need to impose a quisling. He just needs the Ukrainians to say uncle.

Nobody can say uncle for an entire population, and the current government is likely to die rather than surrender. If they weren't willing to die, they would all be sitting in Lviv or a NATO enclave by now. Martyrs don't say uncle.

Then they’ll never get the territory they recently lost back. They’ll say uncle. They already nixed NATO membership.

Currently it seems that Russia wants both the territory and subservience. Which is why negotiations are stalled. And no-NATO clause in the constitution shouldn't be a red line for Ukraine, because this war has shown that the country can defend itself pretty well even without it, and constitutions can changed if the situation changes. The no-EU demand is a much harder pill to swallow, because while it's a harder club to get to, the benefits of even applying are better and more far-reaching than those of NATO.

 

[ZiprHead]

Putin doesn't want NATO countries on Russia's borders. Yet if he annexes Ukraine he will increase the number of NATO countries on its border.

 

[steve_bank]

Putin doesn't want NATO countries on Russia's borders. Yet if he annexes Ukraine he will increase the number of NATO countries on its border.

At this point i think it is clear Putin is not rational analogous to Trump's behavior.

It probably all makes perfect sense to Putin.

 

[Elixir]

It probably all makes perfect sense to Putin

It has been reported that Russian media are already “talking about” Poland and Lithuania.

 

[Copernicus]

He doesn’t need to impose a quisling. He just needs the Ukrainians to say uncle.

Nobody can say uncle for an entire population, and the current government is likely to die rather than surrender. If they weren't willing to die, they would all be sitting in Lviv or a NATO enclave by now. Martyrs don't say uncle.

Then they’ll never get the territory they recently lost back. They’ll say uncle. They already nixed NATO membership.

Are you serious? Russia does not hold all the leverage here. Russia is reeling from unsustainable sanctions already, and those are not going to go away even after a ceasefire and Ukrainian concessions. The Russian invasion is bogged down and domestic opposition is growing worse at home. And this is before the sanctions have really bitten down hard on the lives of ordinary Russians, most of whom never expected or wanted their country to invade Ukraine. Even now, it is illegal to call the invasion an invasion and the war a war. So Putin is getting more and more desperate. Have you not noticed that they only recently started targeting the civilian population? That isn't going to go over big as the news spreads inside of Russia while official media keep trying to deny reality.

 

[laughing dog]

He doesn’t need to impose a quisling. He just needs the Ukrainians to say uncle.

Nobody can say uncle for an entire population, and the current government is likely to die rather than surrender. If they weren't willing to die, they would all be sitting in Lviv or a NATO enclave by now. Martyrs don't say uncle.

Then they’ll never get the territory they recently lost back. They’ll say uncle. They already nixed NATO membership.

Never (?) - that area has changed hands many times over the past 1,000 years or so. That is one of the issues driving this invasion - it was once in Russian hands (and several other countries as well).

 

[ZiprHead]

It has been reported that Russian media are already “talking about” Poland and Lithuania.

And Alaska.

 

[steve_bank]

It probably all makes perfect sense to Putin

It has been reported that Russian media are already “talking about” Poland and Lithuania.

Pre imvasion he put out a string of lies. We will not invade Ukraine and so on. He sted clearly when he took power he thought the fall of the Soviet Union was the great tragedy of the last century, the west was responsible, and it was his goal to restore what was the Soviet Union territories and client states.

Pre invasion he demanded former Soviet client states leave NATO.

It is dangerous for NATO to think Putin can be negotiated with. IMO it is time for NATO to mobilize.

I am no psychologist, but to me it is obvious Putin may be mentally ill and delusional.

 

[Copernicus]

Putin will agree to anything, but his word is worthless. He has already been caught lying in public so many times. So there is not "Trust, but verify". It always has to be "Never trust and always verify".

 

[SLD]

He doesn’t need to impose a quisling. He just needs the Ukrainians to say uncle.

Nobody can say uncle for an entire population, and the current government is likely to die rather than surrender. If they weren't willing to die, they would all be sitting in Lviv or a NATO enclave by now. Martyrs don't say uncle.

Then they’ll never get the territory they recently lost back. They’ll say uncle. They already nixed NATO membership.

Bullshit. Russia is the one in serious trouble. They can’t replace their losses. They can’t sustain their offensive much longer. The sanctions are sinking the economy. Ukraine is getting tons of support from the west and they have stopped the supposed Russian Juggernaut cold right now and even thrown it back in places. It will be Russia that cries uncle. And it may happen very suddenly and unexpectedly.

 

[Hermit]

I was listening to the morning news from the BBC on the way home from work a couple hours ago. Sounds like Russia is encircling a few key cities and Putin is planning to remind the world that civilian casualties are not really something he's terribly worked up about. I heard a report that there's something like 75% of Russia's forces massed in and around Ukraine., and it seems he's going "all in" on this.

Maybe a good time to snatch Kaliningrad from him.

Well, they'd need to want to leave. No one else (wanted) wants it.

Germany does. Well, at least those Germans pining for the glory days of Fritz, followed by Otto and even Bill II.

Königsberg was the historic Prussian city that is now Kaliningrad, Russia. Königsberg was founded in 1255 on the site of the ancient Old Prussian settlement Twangste by the Teutonic Knights during the Northern Crusades, and was named in honour of King Ottokar II of Bohemia.

It was annexed by the Soviet Union in 1945. Nothing would given my paternal grandfather greater joy than to see it back in German hands. He was a died-in-the wool Prussian Junker, who was an inveterate admirer of the Kaiser and volunteered service in the imperial guard.

He was also among the first casualties in WWI. A bullet went through his upper leg. He recovered well enough to participate in a parade a short time later, but it killed his horse.

After the parade he went straight back to his hospital bed. There he was visited by his superior officer, who told him that he'll be demoted to Sergeant or lower for breaking etiquette. An officer does not salute the Emperor by taking off his cap like a civilian. My grandfather protested, pointing out that the proper military salute was impossible on account of having to use a walking stick. This cut no ice. The officer left. Then the empress arrived with a small entourage. She chatted with him about conditions at the front, how he got his injury and stuff like that for 20 minutes. An hour after she left, his commanding officer reappeared, this time accompanied by a major and a colonel. Instead of a demotion they gave him an iron cross, second class.

Sorry for the derail.

 

[Hermit]

They already nixed NATO membership.

Your faith in commitments and contracts is truly touching. Do you have any idea how quickly they are ignored or broken when changed geopolitical circumstances allow?

Besides, there is formal NATO membership and there is the de facto one. Last September Ukraine conducted joint military exercises with U.S. and other NATO troops. Since January that year Ukraine had 2000 US soldiers and another 2000 military personnel from other NATO countries permanently stationed on its soil. That is 1000 more than in 2020. Their purpose is to train Ukraine soldiers and conduct tactical manoeuvres with them. Sounds familiar?

 

[SLD]

Ukraine launched a strike against a Russian airbase in Ukraine today, destroying several helicopters and other vehicles. News reports though don’t indicate what they used, long range missiles, artillery or air strikes.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

It has been reported that Russian media are already “talking about” Poland and Lithuania.

And Alaska.

Oh Noes! What will Sarah Palin say!?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

They already nixed NATO membership.

Your faith in commitments and contracts is truly touching. Do you have any idea how quickly they are ignored or broken when changed geopolitical circumstances allow?

Besides, there is formal NATO membership and there is the de facto one. Last September Ukraine conducted joint military exercises with U.S. and other NATO troops. Since January that year Ukraine had 2000 US soldiers and another 2000 military personnel from other NATO countries permanently stationed on its soil. That is 1000 more than in 2020. Their purpose is to train Ukraine soldiers and conduct tactical manoeuvres with them. Sounds familiar?

Then there is the Partnership In Peace program. A sort of junior NATO. For nations like Finland and Sweden who for various reasons do not want to join NATO but do want to be allied with NATO countries. PIP nations like Sweden and Finland often take part in NATO exercises. And often can buy weapons systems otherwise not available.

Expect PIP to become more muscular in the future.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

At some point, something has to give. And continued terror bombing of Ukraine, which is basically all he has left, doesn’t appear to be breaking the will to resist. The question is where is that point? Two weeks out? Two months? Or just two days?

There are now reports coming in of Russian troops refusing to follow orders to move into Ukrainian territory. Plus desertions and surrenders to Ukrainians forces. Time may not be on Putin's side.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

None of us can predict what Putin is going to do, probably not even Putin. It just seems very likely that everyone else around him must now be questioning the faith that they put in him in the past. He is an angry, desperate man.

US view of Putin: Angry, frustrated, likely to escalate war

If Putin were a strong leader or a courageous man, he wouldn't be sitting at the end of a mile-long table in every meeting and spreading that bizarre image all over the news media. It is prudent for him to be fearful, but not to show his fear. He may like to threaten that he's going to push the nuclear button, but would a man who is afraid to let anyone near him really be the one to start a nuclear war? Anyway, this ex-KGB agent thinks that Putin, like Trump, is just one of those leaders who thinks he is always the smartest person in the room. So he has dug himself into a very deep hole.

Ex-KGB agent weighs in on 'bizarre' Putin photos​

Then there’s this article that contradicts the one I posted earlier, showing ways in which Putin can hold on to power.

Could Putin actually fall?

What history teaches us about how autocrats lose power — and how Putin might hang on.

www.vox.com

Still, I’m optimistic that severe economic sanctions coupled with military setbacks would do the trick. It may take both the Army and the people together to rise up against the security state that Putin has created.

It is not just a case of Putin. He has an entire government upper echelon that is just as corrupt and incompetent as Putin and has never reigned him and his oligarch friends in. If Putin goes but not these schnooks, Russia will simply get another strong man who will follow the same path of surrounding himself with incompetent Yes Men and incompetents.

The economic collapse Russia is facing cannot be solved by a few new faces at the top. The entire Russian government is the problem. And not totally new. Russia under Brezhnez wasted 20 years and set Russia up for its last eventual big collapse. Incompetent strong men leaders that cannot do anything really useful are not the answer.

The entire concept of checks and balances does not exist in the Russian government. It is going to take a French Revolution situation to set Russia on the right track and it might happen a few years down the line as Russia becomes a failed state. Or maybe not.

For the young ones among us, the next 25 years will be interesting to watch to see how Russians deals will all this abject failure, disaster, and unhappiness that will soon be on Russia.

 

[ZiprHead]

It has been reported that Russian media are already “talking about” Poland and Lithuania.

And Alaska.

Oh Noes! What will Sarah Palin say!?

I say let them have Wasilla.

 

[Elixir]

I bet Murmansk isn’t very well defended right now…

 

[bleubird]

It has been reported that Russian media are already “talking about” Poland and Lithuania.

And Alaska.

Oh Noes! What will Sarah Palin say!?

I say let them have Wasilla.

Hey,I have a friend there!