Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[Harry Bosch]

I for one am surprised how well Ukraine managed to hold Russia off, and even fight them back.

Who here accurately predicated how things would turn out?

I'm stunned at how well the Ukrainians have fought. I did predict (in this thread) that smaller mobile Ukranian units armed with javelins and NLAWS would have devastating effect on Russian tanks and transports. Barbos mocked the javelins. I'd love to see his reaction to 647 Russian tanks and 1,844 armored combat vehicles being destroyed by these light units. Would love to see Barbos respond to this!

Current reports are stating that the Russians have lost 40,000 troops that were either killed in combat, wounded or have deserted:

How many Russian troops have died in Ukraine war as US claims Putin is being 'misled'

Up to 15,000 Russian soldiers may have been killed in the war in Ukraine since the invasion was launched on 24 February

inews.co.uk

The Russians haven't taken a single major Ukranian town. We need to keep sending arms and aid to Ukraine.

 

[SLD]

I for one am surprised how well Ukraine managed to hold Russia off, and even fight them back.

Who here accurately predicated how things would turn out?

I'm stunned at how well the Ukrainians have fought. I did predict (in this thread) that smaller mobile Ukranian units armed with javelins and NLAWS would have devastating effect on Russian tanks and transports. Barbos mocked the javelins. I'd love to see his reaction to 647 Russian tanks and 1,844 armored combat vehicles being destroyed by these light units. Would love to see Barbos respond to this!

Current reports are stating that the Russians have lost 40,000 troops that were either killed in combat, wounded or have deserted:

How many Russian troops have died in Ukraine war as US claims Putin is being 'misled'

Up to 15,000 Russian soldiers may have been killed in the war in Ukraine since the invasion was launched on 24 February

inews.co.uk

The Russians haven't taken a single major Ukranian town. We need to keep sending arms and aid to Ukraine.

And here’s the kicker, it takes months to build a tank. They aren’t likely to be able to build more than 50 a month total. Russia has something like 12,000 tanks total. So at this loss rate, they will be out of armor in less than two years. Granted they won’t deploy all of their tanks, so the loss rate will go down. But still, there’s a serious loss rate for Russia that can’t be sustained.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I for one am surprised how well Ukraine managed to hold Russia off, and even fight them back.

Who here accurately predicated how things would turn out?

I'm stunned at how well the Ukrainians have fought. I did predict (in this thread) that smaller mobile Ukranian units armed with javelins and NLAWS would have devastating effect on Russian tanks and transports. Barbos mocked the javelins. I'd love to see his reaction to 647 Russian tanks and 1,844 armored combat vehicles being destroyed by these light units. Would love to see Barbos respond to this!

Not to overuse the cliche, but Russia is more losing due to equipping a bunch of teenagers with guns to invade and occupy a nation... with virtually no resources in the way of food or fuel being supplied.

urrent reports are stating that the Russians have lost 40,000 troops that were either killed in combat, wounded or have deserted:

Perhaps the most damning part of all of this. Putin's actions are killing even more Russians than Ukrainians. Possibly a lot more.

The Russians haven't taken a single major Ukranian town. We need to keep sending arms and aid to Ukraine.

I think the trouble is Russia is attempting to reinforce the Eastern Ukraine occupation, and likely drive further west. And holding that line will be much harder as there are more gaps than people.

 

[Ford]

I for one am surprised how well Ukraine managed to hold Russia off, and even fight them back.

Who here accurately predicated how things would turn out?

I'm stunned at how well the Ukrainians have fought. I did predict (in this thread) that smaller mobile Ukranian units armed with javelins and NLAWS would have devastating effect on Russian tanks and transports. Barbos mocked the javelins. I'd love to see his reaction to 647 Russian tanks and 1,844 armored combat vehicles being destroyed by these light units. Would love to see Barbos respond to this!

Current reports are stating that the Russians have lost 40,000 troops that were either killed in combat, wounded or have deserted:

How many Russian troops have died in Ukraine war as US claims Putin is being 'misled'

Up to 15,000 Russian soldiers may have been killed in the war in Ukraine since the invasion was launched on 24 February

inews.co.uk

The Russians haven't taken a single major Ukranian town. We need to keep sending arms and aid to Ukraine.

And here’s the kicker, it takes months to build a tank. They aren’t likely to be able to build more than 50 a month total. Russia has something like 12,000 tanks total. So at this loss rate, they will be out of armor in less than two years. Granted they won’t deploy all of their tanks, so the loss rate will go down. But still, there’s a serious loss rate for Russia that can’t be sustained.

Ukraine didn't just build up their armed forces in the past 8 years since Russia took Crimea. They've been modernizing them as much as possible (not much) but have also been modernizing their tactics as well...with help from the US. I read a long article a few days ago (I forgot to bookmark it) which was an interview with a Ukrainian MiG pilot. He's not the "Ghost of Kyiv," but said that yes...the Ghost is real. Their entire air force is on the run...on purpose. Rather than take to the skies all at once in a brave attempt to hold off the Russians (who have better aircraft), they moved most of their stuff to any out of the way airfields that could hold them. They've been running and gunning, taking opportunities to strike ground targets when and where they can, and then sneaking off to their temporary bases (moving those constantly) until they have another opportunity to strike.

On the ground, they're using tactics learned from the US...a country which has learned a lot (the hard way) about urban warfare over the past couple decades. Their command and control have been completely overhauled as well. The US advisor I heard the other day in an NPR interview noted that the old Soviet model was very top-down. Orders had to come from the top and filter down, and field commanders were not able to make decisions on the fly. Ukraine changed that, and as a result are far more flexible. Russia seems very slow to adapt, throwing troops and ordnance at a target over and over again, and thinking (apparently) that superior numbers will carry the day eventually.

Thing is, not only are they losing a staggering number of soldiers and a lot of equipment, I've heard it argued that they simply don't have a large enough force to hold Ukraine even if they could take Kyiv. It's like Rumsfeld's old "you go to war with the army you have" thing, but it turns out they didn't even have the army they needed.

 

[ZiprHead]

More in the thread.

 

[SLD]

This is a really good article about the Marine Corps University war gaming the invasion.

https://mwi.usma.edu/wargaming-a-long-war-ukraine-fights-on/

“The game ended with Ukraine growing stronger, but still incapable of retaking lost territory. Russia, on the other hand, needed a prolonged operational and strategic reset, no longer having the combat power to sustain a major advance and with little hope of reviving such power in the near term.

Ultimately, both sides lack the forces to achieve their ideal outcomes. Without a political compromise, we predicted the military aspects of this conflict will be characterized by stalemate, limited advances, high casualties, and massive equipment attrition on both sides over the next twelve months.”

Wargaming is utterly essential in military planning. Has been for quite some time. I just get the impression that the Russians didn’t. Nothing about this attack makes much military sense.

 

[Rhea]

Ultimately, both sides lack the forces to achieve their ideal outcomes

I am hoping that the West re-supplying Ukraine will alter this outcome.

 

[ZiprHead]

Ultimately, both sides lack the forces to achieve their ideal outcomes

I am hoping that the West re-supplying Ukraine will alter this outcome.

I agree but I think but I fear Ukraine may be running out of soldiers.

 

[Jayjay]

This is a really good article about the Marine Corps University war gaming the invasion.

https://mwi.usma.edu/wargaming-a-long-war-ukraine-fights-on/

“The game ended with Ukraine growing stronger, but still incapable of retaking lost territory. Russia, on the other hand, needed a prolonged operational and strategic reset, no longer having the combat power to sustain a major advance and with little hope of reviving such power in the near term.

Ultimately, both sides lack the forces to achieve their ideal outcomes. Without a political compromise, we predicted the military aspects of this conflict will be characterized by stalemate, limited advances, high casualties, and massive equipment attrition on both sides over the next twelve months.”

Wargaming is utterly essential in military planning. Has been for quite some time. I just get the impression that the Russians didn’t. Nothing about this attack makes much military sense.

That was very interesting. Especially to see how prescient some of the results of the game were:

Russia’s summer 2022 move prioritized political objectives to achieve iconic successes over improvements of the overall military situation. Despite increasing Ukrainian partisan activity in occupied areas, Russia launched localized and limited offensives in pursuit of these objectives. However, apart from Mariupol, these objectives proved elusive, and most of the Russian-Ukrainian front lines barely budged. The only major exception was a local Ukrainian counterattack that retook a sizable amount of territory northwest of Kyiv.

That happened due to Russian withdrawal, but a few months ahead of schedule. But it also means more Russian forces available in the East. And right now, it might seem like the attempt to take Odessa has been put on hold.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine didn't just build up their armed forces in the past 8 years since Russia took Crimea. They've been modernizing them as much as possible (not much) but have also been modernizing their tactics as well...with help from the US. I read a long article a few days ago (I forgot to bookmark it) which was an interview with a Ukrainian MiG pilot. He's not the "Ghost of Kyiv," but said that yes...the Ghost is real. Their entire air force is on the run...on purpose. Rather than take to the skies all at once in a brave attempt to hold off the Russians (who have better aircraft), they moved most of their stuff to any out of the way airfields that could hold them. They've been running and gunning, taking opportunities to strike ground targets when and where they can, and then sneaking off to their temporary bases (moving those constantly) until they have another opportunity to strike.

Exactly what we figured they would have to do--strike from the shadows, not a pitched battle. I'm just surprised they could do it in the air--I would have thought Russia would have long since smacked anyplace that could operate jets. They need long, straight, flat places and lots of supplies.

 

[Ford]

Ukraine didn't just build up their armed forces in the past 8 years since Russia took Crimea. They've been modernizing them as much as possible (not much) but have also been modernizing their tactics as well...with help from the US. I read a long article a few days ago (I forgot to bookmark it) which was an interview with a Ukrainian MiG pilot. He's not the "Ghost of Kyiv," but said that yes...the Ghost is real. Their entire air force is on the run...on purpose. Rather than take to the skies all at once in a brave attempt to hold off the Russians (who have better aircraft), they moved most of their stuff to any out of the way airfields that could hold them. They've been running and gunning, taking opportunities to strike ground targets when and where they can, and then sneaking off to their temporary bases (moving those constantly) until they have another opportunity to strike.

Exactly what we figured they would have to do--strike from the shadows, not a pitched battle. I'm just surprised they could do it in the air--I would have thought Russia would have long since smacked anyplace that could operate jets. They need long, straight, flat places and lots of supplies.

You would think, but they apparently didn't. Air superiority is about not just having better planes and pilots, but about denying the enemy the ability to even get their planes off the ground, and that means cratering every runway and airfield that might even be able to land jets. This is not some radical concept that has popped up in the last few years. So Russia either didn't have this as part of their plan, or they simply didn't have the ability to carry it out. Almost 6 weeks in, Ukraine should even have any MiGs, let alone the ability to resupply and get them airborne.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Critical Threats Daily Update on Russian Maneuvers.

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces claim to have successfully captured central Mariupol, but Ukrainian forces retain control of the port southwest of the city. Russian forces will likely complete the capture of Mariupol in the coming days.
• Russian forces are setting conditions for a major offensive in eastern Ukraine in the coming days, but damaged units redeployed from northeastern Ukraine are unlikely to enable a successful Russian breakthrough.
• Ukrainian forces repelled continuing Russian attacks from Izyum southeast toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove.
• Russian and Belarusian forces are conducting “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place. However, these units are highly unlikely to launch new offensive operations, and Ukrainian units around Kyiv can likely safely redeploy to eastern Ukraine.
• Western sanctions are likely successfully disrupting Russia’s military-industrial base.

Area maps at the link.

 

[Jayjay]

Russian state media labels the areas where they withdrew from as "containment zones". it's like walking into a bar, starting a fight, getting thrown out, and saying that you won the fight and contained your opponents in the bar... just where you want them.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Russian state media labels the areas where they withdrew from as "containment zones". it's like walking into a bar, starting a fight, getting thrown out, and saying that you won the fight and contained your opponents in the bar... just where you want them.

Not to defend Putin, but aggressive spin, preposterous claims and bold faced lies are all standard in times of war. In any war the belligerents are not reliable. The reason is obvious. Information is the main weapon in war. The goal isn't to murder all your opponents. It's to make them believe that there's no point in continuing to fight. This has been the case since forever.

"In war, truth is the first casualty"
-Aeschylus

What we should be doing is to stop listening to Putin. And Zelenskyy. Ukraine is also going to say whatever they need to say to get what they need to beat Russia. Zelenskyy has exactly the same incentive to talk shit as Putin has. We can only trust independent sources. But that creates another set of hurdles. Those that sit on the best information are soldiers. They're not going to talk to the press. They'd be court marshalled if they do. No civilian has more than a partial understanding of what is going on. It's dangerous for journalists to go to the places they need to be.

To sum up, any information about what is going on in Ukraine is sketchy at best.

Even the experts are doing armchair research, speculating wildly.

But one thing is clear. When this war started we all thought that he attacked with his B-team and kept the elite troupes in reserve. Nope. He attacked with his A-team. The Russian army is garbage. Most likely hit hard by a lack of funding due to the fact that Russia is a kleptocracy. Putin and his oligarchs sawing off the branch they're sitting on so that they get to have a gold toilet bowl. Well, done guys.

 

[barbos]

Russian state media labels the areas where they withdrew from as "containment zones". it's like walking into a bar, starting a fight, getting thrown out, and saying that you won the fight and contained your opponents in the bar... just where you want them.

I heard retired american colonel or something saying that a lot of these occupation-withdrawals were pre-planned diversions. In particular, march on Kiev was a diversion because there was simply no chance of taking Kiev by that amount of force, so the goal was to force ukrainians keep forces there instead of moving to Donbas.
I personally think that russians were counting on shock effect and it almost worked. Zelensky was ready to surrender but then americans asked him to wait a little longer and see what happens. And what happened was initial ukrainain success in ambushes and such. There is indirect evidence that FSB failed to prepare ground for invasion. That is they (russians) had informal assurances/assessment from the local ukrainian authorities that there would be no funny business if they enter particular towns. Apparently that was incorrect assessment. But this is all in the past. Russians are less concerned with taking territories and more concerned with exterminating ukrainian army and equipment.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Russian state media labels the areas where they withdrew from as "containment zones". it's like walking into a bar, starting a fight, getting thrown out, and saying that you won the fight and contained your opponents in the bar... just where you want them.

I heard retired american colonel or something saying that a lot of these occupation-withdrawals were pre-planned diversions. In particular, march on Kiev was a diversion because there was simply no chance of taking Kiev by that amount of force, so the goal was to force ukrainians keep forces there instead of moving to Donbas.
I personally think that russians were counting on shock effect and it almost worked. Zelensky was ready to surrender but then americans asked him to wait a little longer and see what happens. And what happened was initial ukrainain success in ambushes and such. There is indirect evidence that FSB failed to prepare ground for invasion. That is they (russians) had informal assurances/assessment from the local ukrainian authorities that there would be no funny business if they enter particular towns. Apparently that was incorrect assessment. But this is all in the past. Russians are less concerned with taking territories and more concerned with exterminating ukrainian army and equipment.

You always bring such a fresh perspective.

 

[barbos]

In other news:
Ukrainians have tried few evacuation attempts of someone from Mariupol.
One using helicopters (shot down), other one sent to help downed helicopter was shot down too.
Then they tried to do it by sea using large civilian ship, was captured too.

People are speculating who are they trying to evacuate. Obvious answer is Azov commanders. But some say it could be more than that - some NATO VIPs who were coordinating this.

 

[Patooka]

So NATO is coordinating with Nazis. I honestly don't know what to say about that.

 

[barbos]

So NATO is coordinating with Nazis. I honestly don't know what to say about that.

Why not? You were coordinating with them before. You were coordinating with ISIS, soviet era mujahideens, etc. You were coordinating with all kind of scam.
And as I said before, BBC now admits it, so why?