Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[ZiprHead]

Russian embassy in Dublin short on fuel as companies refuse to deliver supplies

EXCLUSIVE: The Irish Mirror also understands that Bank of Ireland have decided to suspend their accounts with the Russian Embassy in Ireland

www.irishmirror.ie

Apparently that's how you say fuck off in Gaelic.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I disagree with increasing the “defense” budget. It is incredibly bloated as it is. We have more than enough already budgeted to kick Pootey’s ass if we had the will, and all the “defense” money in the world isn’t going to change that.

Well, I'm far from an expert on the military budget. But I know this, the ongoing Russian invasion is costing the US deeply (and everyone else). I'd assume that once the war is over, that the cost of oil will drop dramatically. And, IMO, Russia is not going to stop until their military runs out of tanks and artillery. And I keep hearing that Ukraine dosn't have enough. We need to ship them more and more stingers and javelins. It will be far more expensive in the future if Russia isn't stopped now. If there is a way to better support Ukraine and not increase the military budget (get more lean), I'm all ears!

Yeah. Winning a war is expensive. Losing is even more expensive, though.

What I think we need to do is up our stockpiles of defensive weapons--the sort of stuff we have been shipping to Ukraine, short range drones and the like. Specifically plan it to be shipped to the next target of Russian aggression. Pre-position a decent chunk of it in Europe. That way Moscow knows if they try a stunt like this again they'll be facing the weapons much sooner.

This isn't over. Russia is moving troops to the East and and expanding to the west on the south end, with Odessa being possibly next and Javelins aren't as much an anti-amphibious weapon. Russia appears to be at Plan B (what we thought was Plan A but now with larger territorial gains in mind), capture as much of Eastern Ukraine as possible.

And it will not be nearly as "easy" to defend the lost territory and the territory in front of it, as it was Kviv. Ukraine is in trouble. Deep trouble.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Yeah. Winning a war is expensive. Losing is even more expensive, though.

What I think we need to do is up our stockpiles of defensive weapons--the sort of stuff we have been shipping to Ukraine, short range drones and the like. Specifically plan it to be shipped to the next target of Russian aggression. Pre-position a decent chunk of it in Europe. That way Moscow knows if they try a stunt like this again they'll be facing the weapons much sooner.

This isn't over. Russia is moving troops to the East and and expanding to the west on the south end, with Odessa being possibly next and Javelins aren't as much an anti-amphibious weapon. Russia appears to be at Plan B (what we thought was Plan A but now with larger territorial gains in mind), capture as much of Eastern Ukraine as possible.

And it will not be nearly as "easy" to defend the lost territory and the territory in front of it, as it was Kviv. Ukraine is in trouble. Deep trouble.

It'll take at least a couple weeks to get these leaderless, disgruntled Russian soldiers repositioned.

DoD News April 4, 2022
Kirby said, adding that there has not yet been a wholesale movement in that direction yet. 

TVCC News April 5, 2022
Yeah, they're straggling along in disarray.

I have some hope the Russian forces are in such a state of clusterfuck that any concentration in the East may end up being halfhearted.
Many lies to Putin to follow.

 

[RVonse]

I disagree with increasing the “defense” budget. It is incredibly bloated as it is. We have more than enough already budgeted to kick Pootey’s ass if we had the will, and all the “defense” money in the world isn’t going to change that.

Well, I'm far from an expert on the military budget. But I know this, the ongoing Russian invasion is costing the US deeply (and everyone else). I'd assume that once the war is over, that the cost of oil will drop dramatically. And, IMO, Russia is not going to stop until their military runs out of tanks and artillery. And I keep hearing that Ukraine dosn't have enough. We need to ship them more and more stingers and javelins. It will be far more expensive in the future if Russia isn't stopped now. If there is a way to better support Ukraine and not increase the military budget (get more lean), I'm all ears!

Yeah. Winning a war is expensive. Losing is even more expensive, though.

What I think we need to do is up our stockpiles of defensive weapons--the sort of stuff we have been shipping to Ukraine, short range drones and the like. Specifically plan it to be shipped to the next target of Russian aggression. Pre-position a decent chunk of it in Europe. That way Moscow knows if they try a stunt like this again they'll be facing the weapons much sooner.

This isn't practical anymore. We don't really make our own weapons any more and our supply chain (China) agrees more with Russia than us.

 

[RVonse]

I disagree with increasing the “defense” budget. It is incredibly bloated as it is. We have more than enough already budgeted to kick Pootey’s ass if we had the will, and all the “defense” money in the world isn’t going to change that.

Well, I'm far from an expert on the military budget. But I know this, the ongoing Russian invasion is costing the US deeply (and everyone else). I'd assume that once the war is over, that the cost of oil will drop dramatically. And, IMO, Russia is not going to stop until their military runs out of tanks and artillery. And I keep hearing that Ukraine dosn't have enough. We need to ship them more and more stingers and javelins. It will be far more expensive in the future if Russia isn't stopped now. If there is a way to better support Ukraine and not increase the military budget (get more lean), I'm all ears!

Yeah. Winning a war is expensive. Losing is even more expensive, though.

What I think we need to do is up our stockpiles of defensive weapons--the sort of stuff we have been shipping to Ukraine, short range drones and the like. Specifically plan it to be shipped to the next target of Russian aggression. Pre-position a decent chunk of it in Europe. That way Moscow knows if they try a stunt like this again they'll be facing the weapons much sooner.

This isn't over. Russia is moving troops to the East and and expanding to the west on the south end, with Odessa being possibly next and Javelins aren't as much an anti-amphibious weapon. Russia appears to be at Plan B (what we thought was Plan A but now with larger territorial gains in mind), capture as much of Eastern Ukraine as possible.

And it will not be nearly as "easy" to defend the lost territory and the territory in front of it, as it was Kviv. Ukraine is in trouble. Deep trouble.

Did your really ever think Ukraine was not going to fall to Russia?

 

[Elixir]

Did your really ever think Ukraine was not going to fall to Russia?

Didn't you say it wouldn't take a week?

 

[bilby]

We don't really make our own weapons any more and our supply chain (China) agrees more with Russia than us

This sounds seriously dubious to me. The USA is a major manufacturer of weapons and weapons systems, for both their own forces and for export. I doubt very much that weapons for US forces are imported from China to any great extent (if at all); Do you have any evidence to show that they are?

Weapons systems are surely one manufacturing industry that no nation would outsource, other than to very close military allies, if they had any option. And the US surely has the option.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I disagree with increasing the “defense” budget. It is incredibly bloated as it is. We have more than enough already budgeted to kick Pootey’s ass if we had the will, and all the “defense” money in the world isn’t going to change that.

Well, I'm far from an expert on the military budget. But I know this, the ongoing Russian invasion is costing the US deeply (and everyone else). I'd assume that once the war is over, that the cost of oil will drop dramatically. And, IMO, Russia is not going to stop until their military runs out of tanks and artillery. And I keep hearing that Ukraine dosn't have enough. We need to ship them more and more stingers and javelins. It will be far more expensive in the future if Russia isn't stopped now. If there is a way to better support Ukraine and not increase the military budget (get more lean), I'm all ears!

Yeah. Winning a war is expensive. Losing is even more expensive, though.

What I think we need to do is up our stockpiles of defensive weapons--the sort of stuff we have been shipping to Ukraine, short range drones and the like. Specifically plan it to be shipped to the next target of Russian aggression. Pre-position a decent chunk of it in Europe. That way Moscow knows if they try a stunt like this again they'll be facing the weapons much sooner.

This isn't over. Russia is moving troops to the East and and expanding to the west on the south end, with Odessa being possibly next and Javelins aren't as much an anti-amphibious weapon. Russia appears to be at Plan B (what we thought was Plan A but now with larger territorial gains in mind), capture as much of Eastern Ukraine as possible.

And it will not be nearly as "easy" to defend the lost territory and the territory in front of it, as it was Kviv. Ukraine is in trouble. Deep trouble.

Did your really ever think Ukraine was not going to fall to Russia?

Ukraine won't fall to Russia. Book it Dano.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I disagree with increasing the “defense” budget. It is incredibly bloated as it is. We have more than enough already budgeted to kick Pootey’s ass if we had the will, and all the “defense” money in the world isn’t going to change that.

Well, I'm far from an expert on the military budget. But I know this, the ongoing Russian invasion is costing the US deeply (and everyone else). I'd assume that once the war is over, that the cost of oil will drop dramatically. And, IMO, Russia is not going to stop until their military runs out of tanks and artillery. And I keep hearing that Ukraine dosn't have enough. We need to ship them more and more stingers and javelins. It will be far more expensive in the future if Russia isn't stopped now. If there is a way to better support Ukraine and not increase the military budget (get more lean), I'm all ears!

Yeah. Winning a war is expensive. Losing is even more expensive, though.

What I think we need to do is up our stockpiles of defensive weapons--the sort of stuff we have been shipping to Ukraine, short range drones and the like. Specifically plan it to be shipped to the next target of Russian aggression. Pre-position a decent chunk of it in Europe. That way Moscow knows if they try a stunt like this again they'll be facing the weapons much sooner.

This isn't practical anymore. We don't really make our own weapons any more and our supply chain (China) agrees more with Russia than us.

Link? (I'll save you some time, we manufacture most of our weapons. No way would we have China manufacture the Javelin or any of our weapon systems. Let google do some research for you).

 

[Loren Pechtel]

We don't really make our own weapons any more and our supply chain (China) agrees more with Russia than us

This sounds seriously dubious to me. The USA is a major manufacturer of weapons and weapons systems, for both their own forces and for export. I doubt very much that weapons for US forces are imported from China to any great extent (if at all); Do you have any evidence to show that they are?

Weapons systems are surely one manufacturing industry that no nation would outsource, other than to very close military allies, if they had any option. And the US surely has the option.

The weapons are built here. What about the chips that go into them, though? He might have a point.

 

[SLD]

I disagree with increasing the “defense” budget. It is incredibly bloated as it is. We have more than enough already budgeted to kick Pootey’s ass if we had the will, and all the “defense” money in the world isn’t going to change that.

Well, I'm far from an expert on the military budget. But I know this, the ongoing Russian invasion is costing the US deeply (and everyone else). I'd assume that once the war is over, that the cost of oil will drop dramatically. And, IMO, Russia is not going to stop until their military runs out of tanks and artillery. And I keep hearing that Ukraine dosn't have enough. We need to ship them more and more stingers and javelins. It will be far more expensive in the future if Russia isn't stopped now. If there is a way to better support Ukraine and not increase the military budget (get more lean), I'm all ears!

Yeah. Winning a war is expensive. Losing is even more expensive, though.

What I think we need to do is up our stockpiles of defensive weapons--the sort of stuff we have been shipping to Ukraine, short range drones and the like. Specifically plan it to be shipped to the next target of Russian aggression. Pre-position a decent chunk of it in Europe. That way Moscow knows if they try a stunt like this again they'll be facing the weapons much sooner.

This isn't over. Russia is moving troops to the East and and expanding to the west on the south end, with Odessa being possibly next and Javelins aren't as much an anti-amphibious weapon. Russia appears to be at Plan B (what we thought was Plan A but now with larger territorial gains in mind), capture as much of Eastern Ukraine as possible.

And it will not be nearly as "easy" to defend the lost territory and the territory in front of it, as it was Kviv. Ukraine is in trouble. Deep trouble.

Did your really ever think Ukraine was not going to fall to Russia?

Hunh? Seriously? After Putin just gave up? Putin’s military sucks. They should have conquered Ukraine in three days. Now they’ve decided to punt and call it a victory. They’re a paper bear.

 

[Jayjay]

This isn't over. Russia is moving troops to the East and and expanding to the west on the south end, with Odessa being possibly next and Javelins aren't as much an anti-amphibious weapon. Russia appears to be at Plan B (what we thought was Plan A but now with larger territorial gains in mind), capture as much of Eastern Ukraine as possible.

And it will not be nearly as "easy" to defend the lost territory and the territory in front of it, as it was Kviv. Ukraine is in trouble. Deep trouble.

Did your really ever think Ukraine was not going to fall to Russia?

Hunh? Seriously? After Putin just gave up? Putin’s military sucks. They should have conquered Ukraine in three days. Now they’ve decided to punt and call it a victory. They’re a paper bear.

To me it seems that Russia abandoned the initial horrible idea of trying to attack everywhere at once, and is now attempting to concentrate its forces on one goal at a time. That might have better success.

Right now the consensus of analyses I've seen is that Russia is attempting to move south from Izyum and north from Donetsk in a pincer move that would surround the Ukrainian forces in the East. I'm not an expert enough to tell whether Ukraine is in a position to stop that. The Ukrainian supply lines are longer than near Kyiv and its forces still have mopping up to do in the North.

 

[SLD]

This isn't over. Russia is moving troops to the East and and expanding to the west on the south end, with Odessa being possibly next and Javelins aren't as much an anti-amphibious weapon. Russia appears to be at Plan B (what we thought was Plan A but now with larger territorial gains in mind), capture as much of Eastern Ukraine as possible.

And it will not be nearly as "easy" to defend the lost territory and the territory in front of it, as it was Kviv. Ukraine is in trouble. Deep trouble.

Did your really ever think Ukraine was not going to fall to Russia?

Hunh? Seriously? After Putin just gave up? Putin’s military sucks. They should have conquered Ukraine in three days. Now they’ve decided to punt and call it a victory. They’re a paper bear.

To me it seems that Russia abandoned the initial horrible idea of trying to attack everywhere at once, and is now attempting to concentrate its forces on one goal at a time. That might have better success.

Right now the consensus of analyses I've seen is that Russia is attempting to move south from Izyum and north from Donetsk in a pincer move that would surround the Ukrainian forces in the East. I'm not an expert enough to tell whether Ukraine is in a position to stop that. The Ukrainian supply lines are longer than near Kyiv and its forces still have mopping up to do in the North.

True. But they still can’t hold anything. If we continue to supply the Ukrainians, and Biden just dumped a huge ton of javelins in their lap today, it’s unlikely the Russians will be able to advance much against Ukraine. Ukraine can now focus to the south. They can probably mass a great deal of forces against the Russians there. They may have trouble pushing them all the way out of Donbas, but they could restore their old lines.

They could also mount other strikes against Russia, forcing them to divide their forces further. They actually have lots of options. It’s Russia that risks losing too much armor. How much more can he throw in the fight? He dare not risk it all. We can supply Ukraine with more and more. Russia picked on the wrong guy. He’s not just fighting Ukraine, but the rest of Europe that is supplying the logistical support.

 

[Copernicus]

We don't really make our own weapons any more and our supply chain (China) agrees more with Russia than us

This sounds seriously dubious to me. The USA is a major manufacturer of weapons and weapons systems, for both their own forces and for export. I doubt very much that weapons for US forces are imported from China to any great extent (if at all); Do you have any evidence to show that they are?

Weapons systems are surely one manufacturing industry that no nation would outsource, other than to very close military allies, if they had any option. And the US surely has the option.

The weapons are built here. What about the chips that go into them, though? He might have a point.

Right. We're looking at the major supplier--Taiwan--here. Cutting off Taiwan would be a huge blow to the US military, as it would to China. And China knows this. It is a weak point in our supply chain.

 

[TV and credit cards]

We don't really make our own weapons any more and our supply chain (China) agrees more with Russia than us

This sounds seriously dubious to me. The USA is a major manufacturer of weapons and weapons systems, for both their own forces and for export. I doubt very much that weapons for US forces are imported from China to any great extent (if at all); Do you have any evidence to show that they are?

Weapons systems are surely one manufacturing industry that no nation would outsource, other than to very close military allies, if they had any option. And the US surely has the option.

The weapons are built here. What about the chips that go into them, though? He might have a point.

Probably some COTS electronic components. I recall that was a story awhile back.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I for one am surprised how well Ukraine managed to hold Russia off, and even fight them back.

Who here accurately predicated how things would turn out?

 

[TV and credit cards]

Yeah. Winning a war is expensive. Losing is even more expensive, though.

What I think we need to do is up our stockpiles of defensive weapons--the sort of stuff we have been shipping to Ukraine, short range drones and the like. Specifically plan it to be shipped to the next target of Russian aggression. Pre-position a decent chunk of it in Europe. That way Moscow knows if they try a stunt like this again they'll be facing the weapons much sooner.

This isn't over. Russia is moving troops to the East and and expanding to the west on the south end, with Odessa being possibly next and Javelins aren't as much an anti-amphibious weapon. Russia appears to be at Plan B (what we thought was Plan A but now with larger territorial gains in mind), capture as much of Eastern Ukraine as possible.

And it will not be nearly as "easy" to defend the lost territory and the territory in front of it, as it was Kviv. Ukraine is in trouble. Deep trouble.

It'll take at least a couple weeks to get these leaderless, disgruntled Russian soldiers repositioned.

DoD News April 4, 2022
Kirby said, adding that there has not yet been a wholesale movement in that direction yet. 

TVCC News April 5, 2022
Yeah, they're straggling along in disarray.

I have some hope the Russian forces are in such a state of clusterfuck that any concentration in the East may end up being halfhearted.
Many lies to Putin to follow.

So if Russia has had seven? generals die in Ukraine, I’d imagine they’ve had at least three times as many other senior and junior officers die there who’s job it has been to be closer to the battle.
Russia’s Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu and his Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov now have to fill this void in leadership in a military where personal relationships matter. So do the right leaders get put in the right jobs in the Ukraine conflict or do those furthest away from the inner circle of friends? I’d think the latter.
This is a military with no civilian oversight. A military answerable to one man. So even if Putin knows Shoigu is blowing smoke up his ass, does this most paranoid president have a replacement he can rely upon? If not, Shoigu could be gaining power while Putin’s is diminished.

 

[TV and credit cards]

That said, an unconfirmed Ukrainian military intelligence report suggests that Moscow could soon send the 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, a unit that reportedly committed war crimes in Bucha, into the fight in eastern Ukraine in the hopes that guilty members of that brigade and witnesses of its war crimes are killed in combat with Ukrainian forces.

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ukraine-conflict-updates

 

[Jayjay]

Yeah. Winning a war is expensive. Losing is even more expensive, though.

What I think we need to do is up our stockpiles of defensive weapons--the sort of stuff we have been shipping to Ukraine, short range drones and the like. Specifically plan it to be shipped to the next target of Russian aggression. Pre-position a decent chunk of it in Europe. That way Moscow knows if they try a stunt like this again they'll be facing the weapons much sooner.

This isn't over. Russia is moving troops to the East and and expanding to the west on the south end, with Odessa being possibly next and Javelins aren't as much an anti-amphibious weapon. Russia appears to be at Plan B (what we thought was Plan A but now with larger territorial gains in mind), capture as much of Eastern Ukraine as possible.

And it will not be nearly as "easy" to defend the lost territory and the territory in front of it, as it was Kviv. Ukraine is in trouble. Deep trouble.

It'll take at least a couple weeks to get these leaderless, disgruntled Russian soldiers repositioned.

DoD News April 4, 2022
Kirby said, adding that there has not yet been a wholesale movement in that direction yet. 

TVCC News April 5, 2022
Yeah, they're straggling along in disarray.

I have some hope the Russian forces are in such a state of clusterfuck that any concentration in the East may end up being halfhearted.
Many lies to Putin to follow.

So if Russia has had seven? generals die in Ukraine, I’d imagine they’ve had at least three times as many other senior and junior officers die there who’s job it has been to be closer to the battle.
Russia’s Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu and his Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov now have to fill this void in leadership in a military where personal relationships matter. So do the right leaders get put in the right jobs in the Ukraine conflict or do those furthest away from the inner circle of friends? I’d think the latter.
This is a military with no civilian oversight. A military answerable to one man. So even if Putin knows Shoigu is blowing smoke up his ass, does this most paranoid president have a replacement he can rely upon? If not, Shoigu could be gaining power while Putin’s is diminished.

I read somewhere that Shoigu is where he is precisely because he is not a threat to Putin. He's from a Tuvan minority ethnicity and thus cannot run for presidency (not that it's legally forbidden, but because Russians are racist as fuck).

 

[Harry Bosch]

We don't really make our own weapons any more and our supply chain (China) agrees more with Russia than us

This sounds seriously dubious to me. The USA is a major manufacturer of weapons and weapons systems, for both their own forces and for export. I doubt very much that weapons for US forces are imported from China to any great extent (if at all); Do you have any evidence to show that they are?

Weapons systems are surely one manufacturing industry that no nation would outsource, other than to very close military allies, if they had any option. And the US surely has the option.

The weapons are built here. What about the chips that go into them, though? He might have a point.

All products are manufactured with components and materials that are part of a supply chain. If China could, they would immediately stop us manufacturing weapons if they could. Having said that, sadly, China is more and more treating the west as enemies. They are continually sidding with Russia. As such, it would probably be beneficial for Europe and the US to start permanently removing China from supply chain