Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[DrZoidberg]

This war just went from "special operations" to "war". Now this is getting dangerous for real, threatening to pull us all in. But this fucking lunatic has to be stopped now. Haven't we reached the point where Europe was 1/9 1939? I think so.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-62970683

The interesting thing is that it'll take six months before Russian reserves will reach the front. That means that Russia is counting on this war continuing that long. Not good.

They'll get there much faster. There are stories of contract soldiers being thrown to Ukraine after only a couple of weeks of training. If Russia is smart though, they'll train the troops a little bit longer, but definitely not for six months. Also, this means that contract soldiers that are currently serving will not be able to quit even if their contracts say so. That will have immediate impact.

I've been saying since the beginning that mobilization is on the cards, and it has been the main reason why I've been very skeptical of Ukraine's chances in this war. It's great that Putin was stupid enough not to do it sooner, but counting on your opponents stupidity to continue forever would have been foolish.

What the west needs to do is not go batshit insane, but continue on current path, just speed it up. Train Ukrainian troops in UK, Poland, Germany. Send more drones, counter-battery radars, and develop together with Ukraine good counters to Russian artillery. Come up with better anti-drone tactics now that Russia is using Iranian attack and suicide UAVs. Limited number of ATACMS would be useful. And we shouldn't publicly announce everything that's delivered, so that Russia can come up with counters.

Perhaps we should also send angry letters?

Yes! Increase anger by 50%!

Seriously though, I'm a total peacenik and I don't want escalation. Just like Putin's mobilization decree is an admission that Russia is losing, a radical change in western policy like a no-fly-zone or sending troops would be an admission of failure on our part, and would just embolden Putin, and not really be that effective to be honest. So what's the alternative, except to do what we're doing now, but faster and with more resolve?

How would that be a failure on our part? Not standing up in solidarity to dictators is to fail.

I think the only reason we are not sending troops is because Ukraine is a corrupt country run by oligarchs and the mafia. Just like Russia is. It's not people we should be risking lives to help.

I still think we should send troops. Coming down fast and hard on aggressive dictators is the only way to maintain peace on Earth in the long run.

 

[TV and credit cards]

ISW states Russia’s most ready reserves were being called back to service as early as Nov. 2021. Ukraine claims as many as 80k Russians had been called back as of Jun. 2022. While I usually take Ukrainian numbers with a grain of salt, it would make sense that if Russia started this call back in Nov. 2021, it would continue on at a regular pace. It would be fair to assume those who were called back were those with the most needed field and systems knowledge. Perhaps guys who served a two year contract instead of the one year obligation. The ones left are guys that spent a year standing watch (guard duty). They basically know how to stand around with a rifle slung over their shoulder.
One year is next to nothing. Shoigu claims these reservists will receive at least a month’s training before returning to service. Trained by whom? Anyone capable of training will likely have to be pulled from the field or is already dead. ISW claims those returning to service will likely not receive any refresher training.
Something not mentioned by ISW is what training these reservists received during their original service. How much money would you invest training guys who serve one year and leave? I’ll bet many of these guys never even fired their service weapon. I’ll bet they were put on a gun range and “dry fired” (no rounds in the gun).
This call back of reserves will amount to little or nothing on the battlefield. Considering this and The Insiders article of how general the wording is of this mobilization, young Russian men should be worried.

Another interesting tidbit: CEPA has an article (Russia’s Military Manpower Crunch Will Worsen) and it goes into the laws surrounding Russian mobilization in that Russia goes to a “command economy” giving the military control of production. Is the Kremlin prepared to hand control of the economy over to the generals?

 

[ZiprHead]

Russian newspaper Izvestia, citing an unnamed source, reported that Gerashchenko "fell from a great height, flying (down) several flights of stairs."

 

[ZiprHead]

That seems fair...

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[TV and credit cards]

Well the whole "calling up reservists only" thing went out the window in a big hurry. A little Russian humor there. Governors have quotas to meet and meet them they will less they become part of it. Minorities and students along with anyone protesting of course are being snatched up. The good news of your opportunity to show your patriotism often delivered in the middle of the night. Meanwhile the line to get into Finland isn't getting any shorter. I suspect it will stay that way until Finland closes it. And when these poor souls are turned back, I bet I know who will be waiting for them.

 

[Jayjay]

Interesting post in teh Institute for the Study of War today:

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives that continue to advance. Russian troops continue to attack Bakhmut and various

www.understandingwar.org

Russian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives that continue to advance. Russian troops continue to attack Bakhmut and various villages near Donetsk City of emotional significance to pro-war residents of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) but little other importance. The Russians are apparently directing some of the very limited reserves available in Ukraine to these efforts rather than to the vulnerable Russian defensive lines hastily thrown up along the Oskil River in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. The Russians cannot hope to make gains around Bakhmut or Donetsk City on a large enough scale to derail Ukrainian counteroffensives and appear to be continuing an almost robotic effort to gain ground in Donetsk Oblast that seems increasingly divorced from the overall realities of the theater.

(...)

(My emphasis)

I’m very curious about their actions. Is it as simmple as admitting publicly that it was never about Donetsk and Luhansk, but was always about the land route to Crimea?

Here's a recent five-minute video that explains why Bakhmut and its surroundings are still important to both sides:

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

ISW states Russia’s most ready reserves were being called back to service as early as Nov. 2021. Ukraine claims as many as 80k Russians had been called back as of Jun. 2022. While I usually take Ukrainian numbers with a grain of salt, it would make sense that if Russia started this call back in Nov. 2021, it would continue on at a regular pace. It would be fair to assume those who were called back were those with the most needed field and systems knowledge. Perhaps guys who served a two year contract instead of the one year obligation. The ones left are guys that spent a year standing watch (guard duty). They basically know how to stand around with a rifle slung over their shoulder.
One year is next to nothing. Shoigu claims these reservists will receive at least a month’s training before returning to service. Trained by whom? Anyone capable of training will likely have to be pulled from the field or is already dead. ISW claims those returning to service will likely not receive any refresher training.
Something not mentioned by ISW is what training these reservists received during their original service. How much money would you invest training guys who serve one year and leave? I’ll bet many of these guys never even fired their service weapon. I’ll bet they were put on a gun range and “dry fired” (no rounds in the gun).
This call back of reserves will amount to little or nothing on the battlefield. Considering this and The Insiders article of how general the wording is of this mobilization, young Russian men should be worried.

Another interesting tidbit: CEPA has an article (Russia’s Military Manpower Crunch Will Worsen) and it goes into the laws surrounding Russian mobilization in that Russia goes to a “command economy” giving the military control of production. Is the Kremlin prepared to hand control of the economy over to the generals?

They may not be neede for manning a rifle. But for manning shovels. Digging trenchs and filling sandbags.

 

[Elixir]

Is the Kremlin prepared to hand control of the economy over to the generals?

WUT?
Doesn't the Kremlin have control over the generals?
If not, Putler's days are numbered and it's not a very large number.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[TV and credit cards]

.

Is the Kremlin prepared to hand control of the economy over to the generals?

WUT?
Doesn't the Kremlin have control over the generals?
If not, Putler's days are numbered and it's not a very large number.

I'm guessing there'd be trust issues.

 

[steve_bank]

Maybe Putin wants to flood he occupied zones with a lot of Russian warm bodies.

Maybe he realizes he has lost and now it is about keeping the occupied territory and then claming victory.

 

[Elixir]

.

Is the Kremlin prepared to hand control of the economy over to the generals?

WUT?
Doesn't the Kremlin have control over the generals?
If not, Putler's days are numbered and it's not a very large number.

I'm guessing there'd be trust issues.

I’m guessing you’re right, and that there’s an inverse relationship between the size of those issues and Putler’s life expectancy.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Zelensky invites Russians to run away or surrender once at the front. Holding your ground or turning back towards Russia are both very unhealthy choices. You'll be treated a hell of a lot better as a POW in Ukraine.

Ukraine will treat deserters in line with international conventions and will not return anyone to Russia if they are afraid of repercussions, he said.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Protests in Dagestan region against new draft

Dozens of videos posted to social media showed protesters confronting police and other security officials in Makhachkala, with OVD-Info reporting that officers resorted to using stun guns and truncheons on the crowds.
In one video, a man detained by officials headbutts a police officer, before being beaten by other personnel.
Another video showed a security officer fleeing from a large group of demonstrators, some of whom attempted to grab and trip him as he ran.

Let's get physical.

Dagestan has had more die than any other region. Meanwhile in Chechnya, mutt Kadyrov stated on television, Chechnya has given enough and the mobilization does not extend to Chechnya. Sounds like he made this proclamation without so much as a by your leave from master Putin. That deserves a rap on the nose.

 

[TV and credit cards]

ISW states Russia’s most ready reserves were being called back to service as early as Nov. 2021. Ukraine claims as many as 80k Russians had been called back as of Jun. 2022. While I usually take Ukrainian numbers with a grain of salt, it would make sense that if Russia started this call back in Nov. 2021, it would continue on at a regular pace. It would be fair to assume those who were called back were those with the most needed field and systems knowledge. Perhaps guys who served a two year contract instead of the one year obligation. The ones left are guys that spent a year standing watch (guard duty). They basically know how to stand around with a rifle slung over their shoulder.
One year is next to nothing. Shoigu claims these reservists will receive at least a month’s training before returning to service. Trained by whom? Anyone capable of training will likely have to be pulled from the field or is already dead. ISW claims those returning to service will likely not receive any refresher training.
Something not mentioned by ISW is what training these reservists received during their original service. How much money would you invest training guys who serve one year and leave? I’ll bet many of these guys never even fired their service weapon. I’ll bet they were put on a gun range and “dry fired” (no rounds in the gun).
This call back of reserves will amount to little or nothing on the battlefield. Considering this and The Insiders article of how general the wording is of this mobilization, young Russian men should be worried.

Another interesting tidbit: CEPA has an article (Russia’s Military Manpower Crunch Will Worsen) and it goes into the laws surrounding Russian mobilization in that Russia goes to a “command economy” giving the military control of production. Is the Kremlin prepared to hand control of the economy over to the generals?

What did I tell you?
What did I tell you?

Even a competently executed call up of Russia’s reserves would be unlikely to generate significant combat power in Ukraine in the near term. Financially motivated MoD reforms that reduced the term of conscripts’ service from two years to one in 2008 mean that those conscripted since 2008 were not trained to a level of competence that would make them useful force-multipliers for Russia’s current efforts without considerable additional training.[14] The MoD does not appear to have taken steps to render these new recruits useful, however. Russian reports from a Russian training center in Sergeyevsky claimed that newly mobilized men wandered around the center without training, equipment, or officers for four days.[15]

And I'll betchya rubles to piroshki they've never fired their service weapons.

 

[Jayjay]

ISW states Russia’s most ready reserves were being called back to service as early as Nov. 2021. Ukraine claims as many as 80k Russians had been called back as of Jun. 2022. While I usually take Ukrainian numbers with a grain of salt, it would make sense that if Russia started this call back in Nov. 2021, it would continue on at a regular pace. It would be fair to assume those who were called back were those with the most needed field and systems knowledge. Perhaps guys who served a two year contract instead of the one year obligation. The ones left are guys that spent a year standing watch (guard duty). They basically know how to stand around with a rifle slung over their shoulder.
One year is next to nothing. Shoigu claims these reservists will receive at least a month’s training before returning to service. Trained by whom? Anyone capable of training will likely have to be pulled from the field or is already dead. ISW claims those returning to service will likely not receive any refresher training.
Something not mentioned by ISW is what training these reservists received during their original service. How much money would you invest training guys who serve one year and leave? I’ll bet many of these guys never even fired their service weapon. I’ll bet they were put on a gun range and “dry fired” (no rounds in the gun).
This call back of reserves will amount to little or nothing on the battlefield. Considering this and The Insiders article of how general the wording is of this mobilization, young Russian men should be worried.

Another interesting tidbit: CEPA has an article (Russia’s Military Manpower Crunch Will Worsen) and it goes into the laws surrounding Russian mobilization in that Russia goes to a “command economy” giving the military control of production. Is the Kremlin prepared to hand control of the economy over to the generals?

What did I tell you?
What did I tell you?

Even a competently executed call up of Russia’s reserves would be unlikely to generate significant combat power in Ukraine in the near term. Financially motivated MoD reforms that reduced the term of conscripts’ service from two years to one in 2008 mean that those conscripted since 2008 were not trained to a level of competence that would make them useful force-multipliers for Russia’s current efforts without considerable additional training.[14] The MoD does not appear to have taken steps to render these new recruits useful, however. Russian reports from a Russian training center in Sergeyevsky claimed that newly mobilized men wandered around the center without training, equipment, or officers for four days.[15]

And I'll betchya rubles to piroshki they've never fired their service weapons.

Russia has mandatory conscription (that you can pay your way out of) of one year, so I would take that bet, although there are reports that some people even without any military service have been mobilized. But most have probably fired a gun at least once, even if it was 10-20 years ago.

In general, I think it's too early to tell from anecdotal evidence how the mobilization is going to affect the war. Even if they are poorly equipped or trained, they don't need to be super soldiers to dig trenches and whatnot. The sheer numbers will make a difference, and it's foolish to bet that Russia is completely incapable of improving or learning from its mistakes. Rather, it's a race for Ukraine to shore up its own capabilities faster, and to eliminate as many Russian soldiers and artillery pieces as possible before Russia can get its shit together.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

In general, I think it's too early to tell from anecdotal evidence how the mobilization is going to affect the war. Even if they are poorly equipped or trained, they don't need to be super soldiers to dig trenches and whatnot. The sheer numbers will make a difference, and it's foolish to bet that Russia is completely incapable of improving or learning from its mistakes. Rather, it's a race for Ukraine to shore up its own capabilities faster, and to eliminate as many Russian soldiers and artillery pieces as possible before Russia can get its shit together.

Discontent at home more than anything else is what will tilt the scale. It's pretty obvious that the population doesn't want mobilization and is attempting to leave in droves. Tactically, Ukraine and its allies need to counter Iranian drones more than anything else presently. Kherson seems to be the strategic lynchpin at this point and which side is controlling it when winter arrives.

I also think it isn't a question of how far Putin will go anymore. It's a question of how far he will be allowed to go from within.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Unconfirmed report that the Iranian drone training facility in Chulakivka on the Kinburn Spit of Kherson Oblast with a dozen Iranians and two dozen Russians was destroyed.

Cheers.

And

Straight from the Russian's mouth:
“We’ve been told officially that we’ll go to the combat zone without training.”

It's high time Russians do violence on their own government.

 

[Jayjay]

The Iranian kamikaze drones seem to be a big problem. They're cheap to manufacture, relatively hard to shoot down.