7% of 20 candidates would be 1.4 candidates. You could expect 1 or 2.
First of all, it's 2.5% for California. 7% is US wide. Since we are talking about an appointment for the Senate seat from California, California demographics should matter.
But even given the 7%, assuming even distribution of qualifications, there is still 23% chance for no black women to be among top 20 candidates. Yes it is 35% for 1 and 25% for two, 16% for two or more. With California demographics, there is 60% chance no black woman is among top 20 candidates, 31% for one, and only 8% for 2 or more. Play with a
binomial distribution calculator yourself if you don't believe me.
7% of 100 is 7. So you could expect around 7 Black women, give or take, for all of the Senate.
If Senate was elected from the country at large by some form of proportional representation, maybe. But we elect Senators by state.
And no state is majority black. That means that any black candidate must appeal to more than just his or her demographics.
Raphael Warnock - GA Democrat. Note Warnock is the first African American to serve as Georgia Senator ever.
I really dislike him. Every bit the smarmy preacherman. Stacey Abrams should have run in that race in 2020 I think. She'd be better.
However, Black women are seriously under-represented at 0.
Two black women will likely be elected in 2024.
You especially neither demonstrated how much degrees ought to matter nor proved how we might expect Black women across the country to have no relevant degrees, even if they are needed.
Blacks indeed do have a lower rate of having a 4 year degree or higher.
10 US Presidents did not graduate from college, including George Washington and Abraham Lincoln. And Harry Truman...even if 3/4 did graduate, did they all have law degrees to be competent?
Washington and Lincoln were truly of a very different era. Even Truman to some extent.
College has become more common in the population at large, and also in Congress.
Conservolibertarian Rand Paul has a medical degree, but doesn't hold a bachelors. He's a loon.
He did complete all his prereqs though. It's not like he flunked college, he just started med school early.
Oklahoma Senator Mullin has an Associates Degree in construction.
He is also the only US Senator currently without a 4 year degree. He is also a minority (Cherokee).
Though, by the way, it's also true that on average in Congress, it's the Democrats who have more educational attainment than the Republicans.
I know Dems are more likely to be lawyers, while Reps are more diverse educationally.
By the way, we know absolutely certainly that IF Newsom picks an African American woman, she WILL ABSOLUTELY have a degree.
Likely. Even if it's just loony Maxine Waters with her bachelor's in sociology.