That Iran Deal

[Jimmy Higgins]

When I say the Iran deal is no good, I mean from the perspective of the Trumpies and neocons. Myself, I consider it one of Obama's major accomplishments.

Well I have an in-law who hates the deal because it lets Iran start working on developing nukes after 10 years. Of course without the deal they can start work on it today, but that doesn't seem to sink in.

One thing I heard on NPR is it isn't that simple. If Iran goes to it immediately, that could be taken as a "I told you" moment for Trump. Granted, Iran will likely do stuff in secret, so maybe Trump won't be able to have that moment. The big trouble is that many nations agreed to this deal, but with the US leaving unilaterally, as is being reported now, the US is going to force everyone else to pretty much abandon it to, as any one doing business with Iran could be sanctioned by the US.

How is the US to enter any new treaty with this hanging over our heads?

 

[Elixir]

How is the US to enter any new treaty with this hanging over our heads?

Who said anything about a new treaty? Reneging on the Iran deal is PERFECT, assuming you're an illegitimately elected president under siege by law enforcement who is in desperate need of a major international conflagration to distract from your corrupt practices.

 

[Derec]

Who said anything about a new treaty? Reneging on the Iran deal is PERFECT, assuming you're an illegitimately elected president under siege by law enforcement who is in desperate need of a major international conflagration to distract from your corrupt practices.

So are you saying John McCain will get his wish before he dies?


P.S.: Illegitimately elected? Why? Was Trump born in Kenya or something?

 

[Derec]

How is the US to enter any new treaty with this hanging over our heads?

The Iran deal was never a treaty, which is why it was so easily abrogated. No way even a simple majority in the Senate would have voted for this, much less the constitutionally required 2/3.

 

[Derec]

The Iranians are Shiite.

You could also say they are shite.

They provide material support to Assad, to Hezbollah(maybe other Palestinians as well), and as far as the Saudis are concerned, the Houthi in Yemen.

Hezbollah are Lebanese, not Palestinian, but the Iranians do support Palestinian terrorists from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

The nuclear deal is a peace deal. That's no good.

It's not a peace deal. It's lifting of sanctions for some very limited (both in scope and time frame) concessions by the Iranians. And the windfall they got from the deal they used to increase their support for international terrorism. Not peace. Not even remotely.

 

[Trausti]

 

[Patooka]

And...we're fucked:
Donald Trump announces US pulling out of Iran nuclear deal, reviving economic sanctions

US President Donald Trump has announced he is pulling the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal, in a move set to upset America's European allies and disrupt global oil supplies.

...

"In a few moments, I will sign a presidential memorandum to begin reinstating US nuclear sanctions on the Iranian regime."

This is not a decision in a vacuum. As I mentioned in another thread, this has cemented the fact that any agreement the United States makes with any international body will have a maximum four year lifespan from here on out, regardless of who is President. That's not good for anybody.

I predict two things happening now:
1) North Korea will use this backflip to demand a shit-ton of concessions from the US for their worthless denuclearisation deal. And Trump will be more than happy to oblige so he can say he has achieved something Obama could not do.
2) World leaders like Putin, Assad, Erdogan, Duterte etc will use this decision as justification to ignore treaties and agreements to further their own autocratic agenda (eg the, "What we're doing is no different than what America is doing" defense). Kinda like how totalitarian regimes cracked down on persecuted minority groups around the world as a gesture of solidarity after Bush Jnr's response to 9/11.

 

[Trausti]

Not a treaty, not an agreement, not even signed. However, it did free up billions for the Iranian regime to wage war in Syria and Yemen.

 

[Ford]

This is not a decision in a vacuum.

It was an entirely personal decision. The only reason Trump scuttled this agreement was because Obama was involved in making it happen. He's pissing on his predecessor's accomplishments.

I predict two things happening now:
1) North Korea will use this backflip to demand a shit-ton of concessions from the US for their worthless denuclearisation deal. And Trump will be more than happy to oblige so he can say he has achieved something Obama could not do.
2) World leaders like Putin, Assad, Erdogan, Duterte etc will use this decision as justification to ignore treaties and agreements to further their own autocratic agenda (eg the, "What we're doing is no different than what America is doing" defense). Kinda like how totalitarian regimes cracked down on persecuted minority groups around the world as a gesture of solidarity after Bush Jnr's response to 9/11.

Well if we're being honest the North Koreans were never being straight with us or anyone else. They were going to play nice and then renege on whatever agreement they signed. That's kinda what they do.

And Putin? He's laughing his ass off at how completely he's played Trump.

 

[barbos]

So, fill me in. What, exactly, is wrong with the Iran nuclear deal?

Obama made it.

 

[Underseer]

This is not a decision in a vacuum.

It was an entirely personal decision. The only reason Trump scuttled this agreement was because Obama was involved in making it happen. He's pissing on his predecessor's accomplishments.

I predict two things happening now:
1) North Korea will use this backflip to demand a shit-ton of concessions from the US for their worthless denuclearisation deal. And Trump will be more than happy to oblige so he can say he has achieved something Obama could not do.
2) World leaders like Putin, Assad, Erdogan, Duterte etc will use this decision as justification to ignore treaties and agreements to further their own autocratic agenda (eg the, "What we're doing is no different than what America is doing" defense). Kinda like how totalitarian regimes cracked down on persecuted minority groups around the world as a gesture of solidarity after Bush Jnr's response to 9/11.

Well if we're being honest the North Koreans were never being straight with us or anyone else. They were going to play nice and then renege on whatever agreement they signed. That's kinda what they do.

And Putin? He's laughing his ass off at how completely he's played Trump.

"Played"?

Putin bought Trump fair and square!

 

[Derec]

Well I have an in-law who hates the deal because it lets Iran start working on developing nukes after 10 years. Of course without the deal they can start work on it today, but that doesn't seem to sink in.

It was a rotten deal. Lifting sanctions, 400 million for merely slowing down their nuclear program by 10 years. And no concessions on missiles or their support for terrorism.

 

[Underseer]

Well I have an in-law who hates the deal because it lets Iran start working on developing nukes after 10 years. Of course without the deal they can start work on it today, but that doesn't seem to sink in.

It was a rotten deal. Lifting sanctions, 400 million for merely slowing down their nuclear program by 10 years. And no concessions on missiles or their support for terrorism.

Right.

So by destroying the deal, now 10 years becomes zero years.

Is zero less than ten or is zero greater than ten?

 

[Derec]

LOL - Trump does not trust Iran.

I don't know why anyone should trust Iran's theocratic regime.

Why should anyone trust Trump, who has a long history of reneging on his word?

Or in this case, reneging on Obama's word.

Abrogating the Iran deal will make it that much harder for the USA to negotiate a deal with North Korea, or anyone else for that matter.
I predict the talks with NK go basically nowhere, and Trump will either blame NK or claim he made the greatest deal ever, while making the world a less safe place for everyone.

Well the deal was not really legally binding according to the State Department.

 

[Derec]

So by destroying the deal, now 10 years becomes zero years.
Is zero less than ten or is zero greater than ten?

My point is that Obama should never have agreed to such a weak deal. The Euros wanted to trade with Iran (and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards who controls big chunk of the economy) unhindered and Obama went along with them. The deal was all carrot. What is needed now is a big stick.

 

[Ford]

Well I have an in-law who hates the deal because it lets Iran start working on developing nukes after 10 years. Of course without the deal they can start work on it today, but that doesn't seem to sink in.

It was a rotten deal. Lifting sanctions, 400 million for merely slowing down their nuclear program by 10 years. And no concessions on missiles or their support for terrorism.

Right.

So by destroying the deal, now 10 years becomes zero years.

Is zero less than ten or is zero greater than ten?

Morons actually believe that not only will trashing the deal lead to the Iranians dropping their defunct nuclear program, but it will inspire the Ayatollahs to step down and turn Iran into a western-style democracy.

Because sanctions caused that to almost happen already.

 

[Derec]

I cannot accurately describe how fucking stupid it would be to renege on a deal not even five years old that seven separate nations agreed to simply because an Israeli Prime Minister who is under a pretty serious criminal investigation says so. It certainly sends a clear message to the folks in North Korea about any deal they might have with the US.

This is probably Trump's true legacy of his Presidency. He has, now and forever, cemented the United States reputation as completely unreliable in international agreements, subject to any whimsical change after the next election cycle.

I agree that reneging is bad optics. But the whole agreement was a sandcastle. Or maybe house of cards. Look at this letter by State Department to Mike Pompeo while he was still in Congress.

And on merits it was a deal that Obama should never have agreed to.

 

[jonatha]

Well I have an in-law who hates the deal because it lets Iran start working on developing nukes after 10 years. Of course without the deal they can start work on it today, but that doesn't seem to sink in.

It was a rotten deal. Lifting sanctions, 400 million for merely slowing down their nuclear program by 10 years. And no concessions on missiles or their support for terrorism.

As part of the deal Iran agreed to permanent monitoring of its nuclear program.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action

 

[Harry Bosch]

Well I have an in-law who hates the deal because it lets Iran start working on developing nukes after 10 years. Of course without the deal they can start work on it today, but that doesn't seem to sink in.

It was a rotten deal. Lifting sanctions, 400 million for merely slowing down their nuclear program by 10 years. And no concessions on missiles or their support for terrorism.

We didn't give them 400 million bucks! We gave them their money back. We sold them F-16s in the 70s. They put down about a Billion dollars. But we only sent them half the planes. They wanted their money back!

 

[laughing dog]

I agree that reneging is bad optics.

It is not just bad optics, but bad policy. Why should any country trust the US to make a deal and stick by it? Especially now, with the reneger in chief trying to pull out or change lots of agreements?

The Iran Deal, despite the lies and fears of it critics, was not a bad agreement. At the least, it postponed Iran's nuclear weapon development and helped inch Iran a little closer to the rest of the world through engagement. Furthermore, the US made a deal and its international reputation and its ability to make future deals is harmed by unilaterally dropping it without demonstrable cause. We are not in a position to bomb Iran into submission. If we are serious about reducing the violence in the Middle East, we need to earn trust with the gov't of Iran to bring them to the table. We don't have to like or trust Iran, but we have to try to successfully deal with them. Just like we don't have to like or trust Russian, but we have to try to deal with them. To an adult, that means realizing we will not get our all of our goals accomplished, and that we will have to compromise.

The problem is that we do not have an adult as POTUS. And that there are too many children running around in adult bodies.

Dropping the deal to because Obama made it is childish and stupid. Listening to the lies of Bebe and acting to please the Saudis is, at best, focusing on small short-term gains at the cost of possibly large medium and longer term losses.