There are so many powerful voices against democracy and the rule of the people, I fear it just cannot be contained. So many monied interests feel that Trump is a better alternative than Biden, or more likely Harris. They are repeating the mistakes of German conservatives in the early 30’s. They think they can control this beast.
In 2024, Trump though won’t have a VP in the senate who will try to throw the election to the House. That was his plan but Pence didn’t buy into it. Had it happened, how would the Democrats have responded? File a lawsuit and let the US Supreme Court rule? Sheesh! Take to the streets?
And if Trump loses in 2024, will he call for mass violence? He could. Would anyone stop him? Maybe. I wonder if Mitch McConnell and other Republican leaders would support him. Maybe not, but what impact would that have on the rank and file. They’d all be dismissed as RINO’s. I occasionally listen to talk radio down here, and I recall a caller saying last December that all Trump had to do was issue the call and he and his buddies were ready to go to DC and fight for freedom. The host poo-Poohed this idea, but many others buy into it. The same host has continued since then to say the election was stolen. If the election really was stolen, then there indeed should be a violent revolution!
But unlike Swammerdami, I do hold out some hope that we won’t slide into autocracy or civil war. A convincing loss at the polls by Trump is very possible. The larger that loss, the less likely any claims of fraud are likely to resonate. And I still hold out hope that he’ll be incapacitated by then. Actually it would be really great if his cognitive function was so debilitated but he still wins the nomination. Then the Dems might really sweep the electoral college.
Betfair numbers can also be interpreted to predict which candidates are best.
The D's have a much better chance to win in November '24 if Biden's the nominee rather than Kamala Harris. Buttigieg is a distant 3rd in the race for the D nomination, according to Betfair punters.
On the R side, Trump, DeSantis, Haley and Pence in that order are the four likeliest nominees. Of these Haley would have the best chance if nominated, DeSantis the worst.
It will be a weird election in 2024. We'll have to run the 82-year old man since the 60-year old woman will be a weak candidate. We must hope the Trump Derangement lasts long enough to oust Nikki Haley, and then hope the Rs turn to Ron DeS at the last moment.
If it's Biden vs Ron DeSantis, the Ds get four more years. But in an all-female race Kamala vs Nikki, Nikki wins easily. Yes, once again personalities will be all-important.