The Race For 2024

[Ford]

South Carolina Republican Primary Live Results: Trump Wins - The New York Times

• Donald J. Trump - 451,905 - 59.8% - 47
• Nikki Haley - 298,674 - 39.5% - 3
• Ron DeSantis - 2,951 - 0.4%
• Vivek Ramaswamy - 726 - 0.1%
• Chris Christie - 657 - 0.1%
• Ryan Binkley - 527 - 0.1%
• David Stuckenberg - 360 - 0.0%

Even though she lost, Nikki Haley did better than what some polls had projected. So being a favorite daughter may have helped her a little bit.

On the Democratic side, Joe Biden got 96.2% of the votes and all 55 delegates, Marianne Williamson 2.1%, and Dean Phillips 1.7%.

It's embarrassing for Trump that he only got 60%. Imagine if Biden were getting the numbers Trump is.

It would be embarrassing if Trump had even a smidge of shame, but...

There's a bunch of folks in the punditocracy (Punditosphere? Punditry?) claiming that the fact Trump was only able to secure 60% of the vote in this one primary is indicative of his failing grip on the GOP, and...they kinda have a point.

We'll have to see how things wash out on Super Tuesday, and I expect the party will "close ranks" behind him after that, but yeah...his support this time around is even less than what it was 4 years ago. He's at the "hold your nose and vote" level, and it remains to be seen if that will be enough to propel him past "well, he's all we've got at this point" Biden.

 

[Derec]

Bobby Kennedy jumped into the race after McCarthy's strong showing. LBJ also suffered from failing health and believed he would not live through a second term. Also, polling showed that he was too unpopular to compete any longer.

He wasn't wrong to believe that this was likely. He died only 2 days after the end of that term. Quite possible that, given stresses of office, he would have suffered that fatal heart attack sooner.

 

[Derec]

BUT in the PRESENT-DAY, GOP gerrymandering is at least ten times as egregious as Dem gerrymandering.

[citation needed]

 

[Derec]

You sure about that boss? Asking for a friend.

Yes.

 

[Derec]

It's embarrassing for Trump that he only got 60%. Imagine if Biden were getting the numbers Trump is.

Not quite comparable. Biden is the incumbent and Trump is not.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I disagree. The embarrassment is Haley's. South Carolina was the state she was Governor in. And she lost 3 to 2. Trump is winning these races by more than he did in 2016. Personally, I find it quite depressing that the GOP base is that politically stupid.

Nikki Haley is an ardent conservative who could easily smuggle her very conservative positions behind a mask of independence and moderation. If she ran in 2020, I think she could win in the General Election. But instead, the GOP base is going with the non-politician sociopath.

 

[TV and credit cards]

It's embarrassing for Trump that he only got 60%. Imagine if Biden were getting the numbers Trump is.

Not quite comparable. Biden is the incumbent and Trump is not.

In a primary, for all intents and purposes, so is Trump. Republicans should be thinking of him that way. No small part of their deluded constituency consider him as such.

Ford makes a good point about Super Tuesday.
If Nikki Haley's percentage holds steady, Trump is fucked in a general election matchup.

 

[ZiprHead]

There's a bunch of folks in the punditocracy (Punditosphere? Punditry?) claiming that the fact Trump was only able to secure 60% of the vote in this one primary is indicative of his failing grip on the GOP, and...they kinda have a point.

Coverage last night of the MI primary. This was part of the discussion. Seems there are a lot of never Trumpers out there that used to support him. My contractor is one of them.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

BUT in the PRESENT-DAY, GOP gerrymandering is at least ten times as egregious as Dem gerrymandering.

[citation needed]

There is Texas, Florida, Ohio. Pennsylvania was, until it was ungerrymandered and the Dems won back a 2 or 3 seats. Wisconsin is getting less gerrymandered.

The Democrats gerrymandered Maryland (1ish seat) and New York (bit them in the butts too). It is arguable whether Massachusetts is gerrymandered (where I believe the term was born). California is redistricted in other ways.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It's embarrassing for Trump that he only got 60%. Imagine if Biden were getting the numbers Trump is.

Not quite comparable. Biden is the incumbent and Trump is not.

In a primary, for all intents and purposes, so is Trump. Republicans should be thinking of him that way. No small part of their deluded constituency consider him as such.

Ford makes a good point about Super Tuesday.
If Nikki Haley's percentage holds steady, Trump is fucked in a general election matchup.

All things being equal, Trump is fucked if the people think the economy is doing well in November. It all comes down to that. Trump polled worse in 2016 and won the general election. Do not believe for a moment that Haley voters can be trusted not to vote for Trump.

 

[ZiprHead]

Taylor Swift is not an expert in anything except making mediocre songs

She has two albums on Rolling Stone's 500 Greatest Albums Of All Time list. She's far from mediocre.

 

[Swammerdami]

BUT in the PRESENT-DAY, GOP gerrymandering is at least ten times as egregious as Dem gerrymandering.

The egregiousness of gerrymandering is not well-defined. Sensible folk would understand that "ten times" is at best an approximation.
The "correct" figure might be 10.8, or even just 9.3.

[citation needed]

Oh my! You have a HUGELY inflated sense of self-worth if you think I'm required to do all your Googling for you!
Your question is confused in that FINALLY courts have started reacting properly and GOP gerrymandering efforts are being turned away after the 2020 census. GOP redistricting after 2000 and 2010 census gives a better idea. I'll content myself with just some examples. Goggle found all this in seconds -- I'd spend minutes if I thought there was a point.

In 2012 the Ds won 1.4 Million more Congressional votes than the Rs yet the Rs won the House 234-201. Gerrymandering.
In 2016 the Rs won 1.4 Million more Congressional votes than the Ds and won the House with a whopping 241-194 margin. Gerrymandering.
In 2018 the Ds won 9.7 Million more Congressional votes than the Rs -- a landslide -- yet their 235-199 margin was less than the Rs got in their narrow 2016 victory. Gerrymandering.

That's just for Congress. Statistics are even more extreme when one looks at districting for state chambers in GOP-controlled states.

In 2016, Wisconsin's maps resulted in Democrats winning all statewide offices and the popular vote, but netting only 36 of 99 seats in the state assembly.

In 2002 Austin and San Antonio, both very large cities, each got a Democratic Representative. By 2004 the GOP-dominated State legislature had squeezed this down to 1. There are LOTS of examples like this: Learn to do your own Googling.



This website might help you, though its presentation has several important flaws:

Home

Gerrymandering Project

gerrymander.princeton.edu

 

[ZiprHead]

I agree that musicians, athletes, actors etc. do not have any special insight into political, economic, environmental etc. issues and thus should best "shut up and sing" (or shut up and play).

By that standard, why are you here in the Politics forum discussing... well, anything political? I suggest you shut up and program.

 

[Toni]

Phillips says he’s open to being Haley VP on ‘unity ticket’ | The Hill

“I think it’s a conversation that Ambassador Haley and I should have, if that’s what this comes down to,” Phillips said in a Thursday interview on Minneapolis’s News Talk 830 WCCO, first highlighted by Mediaite.

Phillips said “in the event of a Donald Trump victory this November,” he thinks “any American who opposes that, should celebrate, encourage and inspire an alternative that can actually win and lead our country in the way that people want, and I think anybody, including myself, should keep open minds and hearts about that.”

“I hope Nikki Haley does, and I think America could be very well served by some type of a bipartisan ticket that restores faith in government and most importantly, demonstrates to the world — to the world — that America can work together and restore its extraordinary brand around the entire world,” Phillips said.

He seems like a younger versions of Joe Biden, dreaming of a Good Old Days of bipartisan comity.

He’s not, though. All politicians are ambitious and no politician becomes POTUS without a massive amount of both ambition and ego. Certainly Biden had ambitions to serve as POTUS many years before he got the job.

Phillips is doing something that Biden did not do: he is actively seeking to undermine his party’s candidate for his own personal ambitions. Seeking to serve as Haley’s VP does a lot more to illustrate his personal ambition than it does to serve our country. Claiming to want to form a bipartisan government —under Haley, who is a staunch conservative who has finally grown enough backbone to call out Trump but in other ways remains quite conservative —speaks of his extreme naivite or of his personal ambition. Or of his own secret conservative leanings. None of which is admirable. It is less odious, perhaps, than the continual public fellating of Trump that most of the GOP seems conten t to do but it is still odious. Particularly as Haley’s only shot at the GOP nomination is if Trump is rendered legally ineligible or dies. There is a much smaller chance that a coalition ticket would garner more than a tiny percentage of the vote, or would be effective at governing.

 

[Derec]

I disagree. The embarrassment is Haley's. South Carolina was the state she was Governor in. And she lost 3 to 2. Trump is winning these races by more than he did in 2016. Personally, I find it quite depressing that the GOP base is that politically stupid.

Indeed. Her hope was NH. Had she managed to win that, it would have made her more credible for SC, MI and beyond.
Right now, all she is hoping for is that Trump is forced to withdraw and that the handful of delegates she manages to collect along the way will be enough to make her the default replacement.

 

[ZiprHead]

"We have languages coming into our country -- we don't have one instructor in our entire nation that can speak that language. These are languages, it's the craziest thing, they have languages that nobody in this country has ever heard of,"

Unknown language??? Quick! Somebody call an anthropologist!

 

[Derec]

There is Texas, Florida, Ohio. Pennsylvania was, until it was ungerrymandered and the Dems won back a 2 or 3 seats. Wisconsin is getting less gerrymandered.

I am not saying that Republicans don't gerrymander also. But to claim that R gerrymander is worse, much less 10x worse, as Swammy did, is ludicrous.
I have shown the discrepancies between votes and seats in all these states in a previous post. Please read that one.

The Democrats gerrymandered Maryland (1ish seat) and New York (bit them in the butts too). It is arguable whether Massachusetts is gerrymandered (where I believe the term was born). California is redistricted in other ways.

Maryland - 64.7% of the vote, but 87.5% of all seats. That's a Δ of 22.8 percentage points.
Dems in NY tried a radical gerrymander, but a court mandated fair maps. Indeed, their 2022 map was fair. Dems won 55.6% of the vote and got 57.7% of the seats - a Δ of only 2.1 percentage points. Of course, Dems are trying to gerrymander again, and now have a much more friendly court due to Hochul's appointments.
Massachusetts is completely gerrymandered. Dems have 69.4% of the vote, but 100% of the seats. That's a Δ of 30.6 percentage points.

So tell me again how it is that Republicans gerrymander worse, much less 10x worse?

 

[Derec]

In a primary, for all intents and purposes, so is Trump. Republicans should be thinking of him that way. No small part of their deluded constituency consider him as such.

Not really. He is in an in-between place - he is not the incumbent, but he is not a candidate like he was in 2016 either.
That's why Republican primary drew some credible challengers including high profile governors (one of them is still in the race, just). Whereas Biden only has a little known congressman and a witch for challengers - and "uncommitted".

Ford makes a good point about Super Tuesday.
If Nikki Haley's percentage holds steady, Trump is fucked in a general election matchup.

Depends how many of her voters refuse to back Trump in the general, which is up in the air.

 

[Derec]

She has two albums on Rolling Stone's 500 Greatest Albums Of All Time list. She's far from mediocre.

She is popular. But popularity and quality are not the same. What was RS' methodology here?

 

[Toni]

There is Texas, Florida, Ohio. Pennsylvania was, until it was ungerrymandered and the Dems won back a 2 or 3 seats. Wisconsin is getting less gerrymandered.

I am not saying that Republicans don't gerrymander also. But to claim that R gerrymander is worse, much less 10x worse, as Swammy did, is ludicrous.
I have shown the discrepancies between votes and seats in all these states in a previous post. Please read that one.

The Democrats gerrymandered Maryland (1ish seat) and New York (bit them in the butts too). It is arguable whether Massachusetts is gerrymandered (where I believe the term was born). California is redistricted in other ways.

Maryland - 64.7% of the vote, but 87.5% of all seats. That's a Δ of 22.8 percentage points.
Dems in NY tried a radical gerrymander, but a court mandated fair maps. Indeed, their 2022 map was fair. Dems won 55.6% of the vote and got 57.7% of the seats - a Δ of only 2.1 percentage points. Of course, Dems are trying to gerrymander again, and now have a much more friendly court due to Hochul's appointments.
Massachusetts is completely gerrymandered. Dems have 69.4% of the vote, but 100% of the seats. That's a Δ of 30.6 percentage points.

So tell me again how it is that Republicans gerrymander worse, much less 10x worse?

I confess I have not looked at district maps for any of the states mentioned but it is altogether possible for one party to win >60% of the vote and still win all of the seats. All one has to do is to assume that the proportion of party members is equally distributed throughout the state and that they vote in proportion to their numbers in their districts and that they vote for the candidate put forth by their party.

This does not mean that there is not significant gerrymandering. But gerrymandering does not explain Maryland or NY or MA or any other state leaning towards one party or the other.