The Race For 2024

[Derec]

The egregiousness of gerrymandering is not well-defined.

You were the one making the claim. Presumably you had some sort of definition in mind. Or did you just pull that number out of your ass?

Sensible folk would understand that "ten times" is at best an approximation.

The number of significant figures was not my objection here.

The "correct" figure might be 10.8, or even just 9.3.

Or 1.0 or even 0.15.
Again, what were you basing your 10x claim on? How did you quantify egregiousness?

Oh my! You have a HUGELY inflated sense of self-worth if you think I'm required to do all your Googling for you!

You made a claim. It is on you to back it up.
That said, I did a fair share of googling myself in previous posts on this topic. I suggest you read them.

Your question is confused in that FINALLY courts have started reacting properly and GOP gerrymandering efforts are being turned away after the 2020 census.

I was looking at the most recent congressional election. A NY court also invalidated heavily gerrymandered maps in that state, and imposed fair maps (they are making a new heavily gerrymandered map because they have a more leftist court now). Illinois did not do for their Dem gerrymander. Neither did MA, where Dems won about 2/3 of the vote but got 100% of the seats.

GOP redistricting after 2000 and 2010 census gives a better idea.

Better idea of what? That's history. Why not look at most recent elections? Because you don't want to admit that Dems gerrymander heavily too, which then refutes your bold-faced assertion that Republican gerrymanders are 10x more egregious. As if you could get more egregious than grabbing all the congressional seats!

I'll content myself with just some examples. Goggle found all this in seconds -- I'd spend minutes if I thought there was a point.

You are still nowhere close to demonstrating your point. I'd spend those minutes.

In 2012 the Ds won 1.4 Million more Congressional votes than the Rs yet the Rs won the House 234-201. Gerrymandering.

That is gerrymander. That was also 12 years ago. Since then, Dems have more than caught up with the gerrymandering racket.

In 2018 the Ds won 9.7 Million more Congressional votes than the Rs -- a landslide -- yet their 235-199 margin was less than the Rs got in their narrow 2016 victory. Gerrymandering.

In 2018, Ds got 53.4% of the vote and 54.0% of the seats. Seems a pretty fair outcome, even as Ds have a slight advantage. You think that's Republican gerrymander. Why?

That's just for Congress.

Any reason why you stopped?
2020: Ds had 50.3% of the vote, 51.0% of the seats.
2022: Rs had 50.6% of the vote, 51.0% of the seats.

So since 2018 the gerrymanders (like the 100% MA one) seem to be largely cancelling each other out. So much for "10x more egregious".

Statistics are even more extreme when one looks at districting for state chambers in GOP-controlled states.

Just "GOP-controlled"?
Illinois state house: Ds got 49.1% of the vote, but won 66% of the seats. They lost almost 10 percentage points of the vote since 2020, but increased their seat margin. Hardly egregious at all, right?

In 2016, Wisconsin's maps resulted in Democrats winning all statewide offices and the popular vote, but netting only 36 of 99 seats in the state assembly.

In 2022, Wisconsin Dems got 53.6% of the vote and 64.6% of the seats. Gerrymander.

In 2002 Austin and San Antonio, both very large cities, each got a Democratic Representative. By 2004 the GOP-dominated State legislature had squeezed this down to 1. There are LOTS of examples like this: Learn to do your own Googling.

In 2022, in Texas Rs got 51.7% of the vote and 57.3% of the seats. An advantage yes, some gerrymandering probably, but nowhere close to the Δ of Illinois or Wisconsin or Massachusetts.

View attachment 45485

How is that shape any worse than the C-shaped district from Illinois I posted? Never mind that your map is from two decades ago.

Let me again remind you of your claim, as bold-typed as it was bold-faced.

BUT in the PRESENT-DAY, GOP gerrymandering is at least ten times as egregious as Dem gerrymandering.
Did you really not even know this?

You wrote "PRESENT-DAY". So why do you keep harping on 2002 this and 2004 that? Did you misplace your calendar?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There is Texas, Florida, Ohio. Pennsylvania was, until it was ungerrymandered and the Dems won back a 2 or 3 seats. Wisconsin is getting less gerrymandered.

I am not saying that Republicans don't gerrymander also. But to claim that R gerrymander is worse, much less 10x worse, as Swammy did, is ludicrous.

The GOP tried to whittle Ohio down to 2 Dem seats in the House. Even the GOP led Supreme Court had to put that on pause... but only because one of the GOP judges voted with the three Dems.

I have shown the discrepancies between votes and seats in all these states in a previous post. Please read that one.

The Democrats gerrymandered Maryland (1ish seat) and New York (bit them in the butts too). It is arguable whether Massachusetts is gerrymandered (where I believe the term was born). California is redistricted in other ways.

Maryland - 64.7% of the vote, but 87.5% of all seats. That's a Δ of 22.8 percentage points.

I said that.

Dems in NY tried a radical gerrymander,

Also said that.

Massachusetts is completely gerrymandered. Dems have 69.4% of the vote, but 100% of the seats. That's a Δ of 30.6 percentage points.

The thing about Massachusetts is a lot of it is Democrat. If you can show me where you think a GOP seat could be carved, I'm willing to concede that. But you might find it harder than you original thought.

So tell me again how it is that Republicans gerrymander worse, much less 10x worse?

Ohio, as noted. Texas, North Carolina. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. And California isn't gerrymandered, because if it were, the Dems would have a much easier time at it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There is Texas, Florida, Ohio. Pennsylvania was, until it was ungerrymandered and the Dems won back a 2 or 3 seats. Wisconsin is getting less gerrymandered.

I am not saying that Republicans don't gerrymander also. But to claim that R gerrymander is worse, much less 10x worse, as Swammy did, is ludicrous.
I have shown the discrepancies between votes and seats in all these states in a previous post. Please read that one.

The Democrats gerrymandered Maryland (1ish seat) and New York (bit them in the butts too). It is arguable whether Massachusetts is gerrymandered (where I believe the term was born). California is redistricted in other ways.

Maryland - 64.7% of the vote, but 87.5% of all seats. That's a Δ of 22.8 percentage points.
Dems in NY tried a radical gerrymander, but a court mandated fair maps. Indeed, their 2022 map was fair. Dems won 55.6% of the vote and got 57.7% of the seats - a Δ of only 2.1 percentage points. Of course, Dems are trying to gerrymander again, and now have a much more friendly court due to Hochul's appointments.
Massachusetts is completely gerrymandered. Dems have 69.4% of the vote, but 100% of the seats. That's a Δ of 30.6 percentage points.

So tell me again how it is that Republicans gerrymander worse, much less 10x worse?

I confess I have not looked at district maps for any of the states mentioned but it is altogether possible for one party to win >60% of the vote and still win all of the seats. All one has to do is to assume that the proportion of party members is equally distributed throughout the state and that they vote in proportion to their numbers in their districts and that they vote for the candidate put forth by their party.

This does not mean that there is not significant gerrymandering. But gerrymandering does not explain Maryland or NY or MA or any other state leaning towards one party or the other.

NY Dems tried a massive gerrymander. There is no doubt there. Maryland is also a state that is gerrymandered to eliminate one or maybe two? seats. But the Gerrymanders that were in PA, are in NC, FL, TX (Tom DeLay anyone?), OH, WI, those seats add up!

 

[ZiprHead]

She has two albums on Rolling Stone's 500 Greatest Albums Of All Time list. She's far from mediocre.

She is popular. But popularity and quality are not the same. What was RS' methodology here?

A large panel of music industry judges, mostly artists and producers.

EDITOR’S NOTE, DECEMBER 2023: In the three years since Rolling Stone rolled out the all-new, fully revamped version of our 500 Greatest Albums list, artists like Beyonce, Bad Bunny, and Taylor Swift have all released undeniable classics. So we’ve updated the list, adding those albums while making a few other tweaks. The 2020 list covered many decades of popular music, and was the result of a vote among more than 300 artists, writers, producers and industry figures; this update covers just three years. So we kept the changes light.

 

[Toni]

There is Texas, Florida, Ohio. Pennsylvania was, until it was ungerrymandered and the Dems won back a 2 or 3 seats. Wisconsin is getting less gerrymandered.

I am not saying that Republicans don't gerrymander also. But to claim that R gerrymander is worse, much less 10x worse, as Swammy did, is ludicrous.
I have shown the discrepancies between votes and seats in all these states in a previous post. Please read that one.

The Democrats gerrymandered Maryland (1ish seat) and New York (bit them in the butts too). It is arguable whether Massachusetts is gerrymandered (where I believe the term was born). California is redistricted in other ways.

Maryland - 64.7% of the vote, but 87.5% of all seats. That's a Δ of 22.8 percentage points.
Dems in NY tried a radical gerrymander, but a court mandated fair maps. Indeed, their 2022 map was fair. Dems won 55.6% of the vote and got 57.7% of the seats - a Δ of only 2.1 percentage points. Of course, Dems are trying to gerrymander again, and now have a much more friendly court due to Hochul's appointments.
Massachusetts is completely gerrymandered. Dems have 69.4% of the vote, but 100% of the seats. That's a Δ of 30.6 percentage points.

So tell me again how it is that Republicans gerrymander worse, much less 10x worse?

I confess I have not looked at district maps for any of the states mentioned but it is altogether possible for one party to win >60% of the vote and still win all of the seats. All one has to do is to assume that the proportion of party members is equally distributed throughout the state and that they vote in proportion to their numbers in their districts and that they vote for the candidate put forth by their party.

This does not mean that there is not significant gerrymandering. But gerrymandering does not explain Maryland or NY or MA or any other state leaning towards one party or the other.

NY Dems tried a massive gerrymander. There is no doubt there. Maryland is also a state that is gerrymandered to eliminate one or maybe two? seats. But the Gerrymanders that were in PA, are in NC, FL, TX (Tom DeLay anyone?), OH, WI, those seats add up!

Oh, I definitely know that there is gerrymandering. My district has been gerrymandered recently, increasing Republican seats in my state.

I’m just saying that the numbers Derec was using did not in and of themselves indicate any gerrymandering.

 

[Shadowy Man]

She has two albums on Rolling Stone's 500 Greatest Albums Of All Time list. She's far from mediocre.

She is popular. But popularity and quality are not the same. What was RS' methodology here?

A large panel of music industry judges, mostly artists and producers.

EDITOR’S NOTE, DECEMBER 2023: In the three years since Rolling Stone rolled out the all-new, fully revamped version of our 500 Greatest Albums list, artists like Beyonce, Bad Bunny, and Taylor Swift have all released undeniable classics. So we’ve updated the list, adding those albums while making a few other tweaks. The 2020 list covered many decades of popular music, and was the result of a vote among more than 300 artists, writers, producers and industry figures; this update covers just three years. So we kept the changes light.

Clearly not enough of Derec’s ilk involved in the process.

 

[TSwizzle]

The best way to save democracy is with more fascism;

An Illinois state judge has kicked former President Donald Trump off the Illinois' Republican presidential primary ballot due to his alleged role in the January 6 Capitol riots. Cook County Circuit Judge Tracie Porter ruled in favor of Illinois voters who argued Trump should be disqualified from the state's mid-March primary ballot, as well as the November 5 general election ballot.
The judge wrote in her ruling that she 'realizes the magnitude of this decision and its impact on the upcoming primary Illinois elections.'
'The Illinois State Board of Election shall remove Donald J. Trump from the ballot for the General Primary Election on March 19, 2024, or cause any votes cast for him to be suppressed.'

Daily Mail

 

[ZiprHead]

So the Constitution of the United States is fascist???

 

[Politesse]

What is "fascism"?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The best way to save democracy is with more fascism;

An Illinois state judge has kicked former President Donald Trump off the Illinois' Republican presidential primary ballot due to his alleged role in the January 6 Capitol riots. Cook County Circuit Judge Tracie Porter ruled in favor of Illinois voters who argued Trump should be disqualified from the state's mid-March primary ballot, as well as the November 5 general election ballot.
The judge wrote in her ruling that she 'realizes the magnitude of this decision and its impact on the upcoming primary Illinois elections.'
'The Illinois State Board of Election shall remove Donald J. Trump from the ballot for the General Primary Election on March 19, 2024, or cause any votes cast for him to be suppressed.'

Daily Mail

The dude incited a riot at the US Capitol building after a months long effort to steal an election result, an election he knew he lost. His supporters while breaking into the Capitol Building were chanting "Hang Mike Pence". Why this is a partisan discussion is beyond my capacity to understand.

While I feel SCOTUS will force Trump on the ballot due to "self executing" issues of the 14th Amendment, the intent of the founding fathers and those who signed off on the 14th Amendment was clearly and unambiguously to not allow a person who did what Trump did to be President. You folks would have demanded Al Gore's scalp, had he did what Trump did.

 

[ZiprHead]

It's simply a constitutional requirement that the president be a natural born citizen, at least 35 years of age, and not be a lying secessionist douche.

 

[Elixir]

It's simply a constitutional requirement that the president be a natural born citizen, at least 35 years of age, and not be a lying secessionist douche.

Depends on what the definition of “lying” is, and whether the definition of “secessionist” is also consistent with the founders’ original understanding of “douche”. Nothing simple about it - the SCOTUS can mull it over for a few more years without ever having to conclude that Dear Leader is a lying secessionist douche.

You folks would have demanded Al Gore's scalp, had he did what Trump did.

True, but hypocrisy isn’t hypocritical when Repugs do it; it’s their platform.

 

[Derec]

What is "fascism"?

Ideology based on a bundle of sticks with an axe. Or something.

 

[lpetrich]

"Fascist" is often used as a dirty word roughly meaning "autocrat". But notable Fascist regimes had some things in common.

Autocratic rule by a single political party with all others outlawed. This party has an ideology of belligerent nationalism, wanting to make its nation great again no matter what the cost to anyone else in the world, including people in its nation that it does not consider Real Citizens. This party often has a personality cult of its leader, portraying him as a great national hero.

Fascist regimes accept capitalism and often take the side of business managements against labor unions, but in return, they don't allow business managements to do things that they dislike.

 

[lpetrich]

Michigan Republican Primary Election 2024 Live Results: Trump Wins - The New York Times

• Donald J. Trump - 758,892 - 68.1% - 12
• Nikki Haley - 296,328 - 26.6% - 4
• Uncommitted - 33,554 - 3.0%
• Ron DeSantis - 13,430 - 1.2%
• Chris Christie - 4,792 - 0.4%
• Vivek Ramaswamy - 3,718 - 0.3%
• Ryan Binkley - 2,348 - 0.2%
• Asa Hutchinson - 1,089 - 0.1%

Total reported: 1,114,151 (>95%)

Impressive showing by NH.

Michigan Democratic Primary Election 2024 Live Results: Biden Wins - The New York Times

• Joseph R. Biden Jr.* - 623,415 - 81.1% - 115
• Uncommitted - 101,436 - 13.2% - 2
• Marianne Williamson - 22,805 - 3.0%
• Dean Phillips - 20,600 - 2.7%

Total reported: 768,256 (>95%)

 

[lpetrich]

"Uncommitted" did surprisingly well. That was a protest vote of the Biden Admin's continuing support of the Netanyahu regime's actions, and a way of reminding him that unlike Harry Truman, he has hundreds of thousands of Arabs among his constituents.

Truman Adviser Recalls May 14,1948 US Decision to Recognize Israel – 1991 May-June - WRMEA

Most people who knew the Middle East at first hand opposed the partition plan, adopted by the United Nations on November 29, 1947. Patently unfair, it awarded 56 percent of Palestine to its 650,000 Jewish inhabitants, and 44 percent to its 1,300,000 Muslim and Christian Arab inhabitants.

Partition was adopted only after ruthless arm-twisting by the US government and by 26 pro-Zionist U.S. senators who, in telegrams to a number of UN member states, warned that U.S. goodwill in rebuilding their World War II-devastated economies might depend on a favorable vote for partition.

In a Nov. 10, 1945 meeting with American diplomats brought in from their posts in the Middle East to urge Truman not to heed Zionist urgings, Truman had bluntly explained his motivation:

"I'm sorry, gentlemen, but I have to answer to hundreds of thousands who are anxious for the success of Zionism: I do not have hundreds of thousands of Arabs among my constituents."

 

[lpetrich]

Marianne Williamson re-enters 2024 race after besting Dean Phillips in Michigan - 3.0% to 2.7%

Marianne Williamson on X: "#Unsuspended (vid link)" / X

"We have to respond to Donald Trump's dark vision of possibility ... we need to have a peace academy as well as a military academy," she said.

"We need to have a ceasefire now," she added.

Kennedy Campaign Forms ‘We the People’ Political Parties in Six States | Kennedy24 - January 16, 2024

Supporters of independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. filed political party paperwork in six states — California, Delaware, Hawaii, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas. In the first five states listed, the “We the People” political party was formed and in Texas, the “Texas Independent Party” was created.

RFK Jr. launches new party to get on Calif. ballot - 2:11 PM PT Jan. 22, 2024

The We the People party is seeking to register 75,000 people in the state to be able to run against presidential candidates in the Republican and Democratic parties. California will hold its primary on March 5 along with more than a dozen other states as part of Super Tuesday.

 

[lpetrich]

Koch network stops spending on Nikki Haley's presidential campaign - POLITICO - 02/25/2024 05:06 PM EST - "Americans for Prosperity Action said it had to “take stock” after Haley’s loss in South Carolina."

There’s a Good Reason Haley’s Still Running – And It’s Not Trump’s Legal Problems - POLITICO - 02/28/2024 05:00 AM EST - "The answer might be buried deep in the Republican convention rules."

The rules don’t simply give power to a candidate based on the number of delegates they possess. Candidates cannot have their names placed into nomination, and thereby get television airtime at the convention, unless they have a plurality of delegates in at least five states.

That threshold makes a big difference for Haley in terms of her clout — if any — at the convention. Modern political conventions have morphed into four-day long infomercials for a nominee whose identity has long been known. Every winner wants to use that platform to broadcast a structured, convincing message. Do that right and you can give your candidacy a significant, and perhaps decisive, bounce in the polls.

But that requires ensuring that there are no fights, or alternative messages coming from the convention floor — something winners cannot fully control. Defeated candidates can still deploy their delegates to obstruct the winner’s will by posing contentious amendments to the party platform or by using their nominating speeches to criticize the nominee. That can become news, and prospective nominees will cut deals to prevent that from happening.

Against that backdrop, Haley’s continued campaign makes a great deal of sense. The more delegates she can acquire, the more power she can exert on the floor. And the more power she can exert on the floor, the stronger hand she has to deal from to get concessions from former President Donald Trump on things she cares about, such as U.S. support for NATO. Indeed, given that the party did not even write a platform in 2020, simply insisting that it draft a new one for this election might be a significant request.

So she wants the Republican Convention to be more than a coronation, it seems.

 

[lpetrich]

Super Tuesday is March 5, next week, with all these states: AK, AL, AR, CA, CO, MA, ME, MN, NC, OK, TN, TX, UT VA, VT with the D's also having American Samoa and the R's also having the IA mail-in vote.

Let's see if Nikki Haley continues after this.

 

[Politesse]

What is "fascism"?

Ideology based on a bundle of sticks with an axe. Or something.

Ah, faggotry. I know it well.

But I am not convinced that you do.