The Race For 2024

[lpetrich]

Nikki Haley calls for 'new generation' in 2024 campaign rally

The 51-year-old Haley has made "new generation" her mantra since she and aides began discussing her prospective candidacy weeks ago.

The newly minted Republican candidate has targeted her generational argument against 80-year-old President Joe Biden – but it could just as easily apply to the 76-year-old Trump.

Haley called for term limits for members of Congress and "mandatory mental competency tests for politicians over 75 years old."

Then
Don Lemon's Nikki Haley 'prime' comments: What happened, his apology
POLITICO on Twitter: "CNN's Don Lemon got personal when he criticized Nikki Haley's comments calling for competency tests for politicians over 75 years old — an apparent shot at Trump, 76, and Biden, 80.
"Haley isn’t in her prime.," he said. "A woman is in their prime in 20s and 30s and maybe 40s." https://t.co/rJrTTnMPRB" / Twitter
When pressed for details by his cohosts, he repeatedly responded "Google it".

Then
Nikki Haley calls CNN's Don Lemon a 'sexist middle-aged' anchor after comments about her not being in her prime - POLITICO

“To be clear, I am NOT calling for competency tests for Sexist middle-aged CNN anchors; only for people who make our laws and are 75+,” Haley wrote on Twitter.

 

[lpetrich]

From Nikki Haley calls CNN's Don Lemon a 'sexist middle-aged' anchor after comments about her not being in her prime - POLITICO

“This whole talk about age makes me uncomfortable,” Lemon said to co-hosts Poppy Harlow and Kaitlan Collins during the “CNN This Morning” show. “I think it’s the wrong road to go down. She says people, you know, politicians are suddenly not in their prime. Nikki Haley isn’t in her prime. Sorry, when a woman is in their prime in 20s and 30s and maybe 40s.”

The comments received instant backlash on social media, and caused on-air tension. “Wait … prime for what?” Harlow, who is 41, asked.

“Don’t shoot the messenger, I’m just saying what the facts are,” Lemon responded. “Google it.”

From Don Lemon's Nikki Haley 'prime' comments: What happened, his apology

His co-host Harlow asked him to clarify what he meant by "prime" and if he was referring to "prime for childbearing" or "prime for being president."

Lemon responded: "If you Google, 'when is a woman in her prime,' it'll say 20s, 30s, and 40s. ... I'm not saying I agree with that so I think she has to be careful about saying that (politicians aren't in their prime)."

Later,
Don Lemon on Twitter: "The reference I made to a woman’s “prime” this morning was inartful and irrelevant, as colleagues and loved ones have pointed out, and I regret it. A woman’s age doesn't define her either personally or professionally. I have countless women in my life who prove that every day." / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

Senate Republicans fear Trump repeat as 2024 field emerges | The Hill
Republicans who don't want Trump to run?

Who might be running? Fmr Sec'y of State Mike Pompeo, fmr VP Mike Pence, FL Gov Ron DeSantis, NH Gov Chris Sununu, fmr AR Gov Asa Hutchinson, fmr MD Gov Larry Hogan, VA Gov Glenn Youngkin

In a typical year there are also presidential candidates from the Senate, though 2024 may be an anomaly in this regard.

“Look, we were all concerned with the fact that we had 15 or 16 or 17 individuals vying for attention in the last one. We really don’t want to see that happen again,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) told The Hill. “We just don’t.”

Most R Senators are avoiding public comment.

But Republicans in the Senate are tired of losing, and many blame Trump for the party losing the House in 2018, losing the White House and Senate in 2020 and failing to pick up the Senate in 2022.

They are now feeling anxious over the possibility that Trump could again steamroll through a crowded field and waltz to the party’s nomination.

“I do worry about that,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said, adding that “unfortunately, I don’t have any control over that.”

 

[lpetrich]

How Donald Trump’s Unusual Presidential Comeback Could Go | FiveThirtyEight - "History presents three possible paths."

“I am not a candidate.
I will not become a candidate.
I will support the nominee of my party with all the energy I have.”
- Gerald Ford in March 1980, announcing his refusal to run for President. He thus did not join the five previous presidents that attempted comebacks after being out of the Presidency.

Five previous Presidents have attempted comebacks:

• Martin van Buren in 1844 (54.9%, needed 2/3 to win)
• Ulysses Grant in 1880 (41.4%)
• Grover Cleveland in 1892 (67.8%, he won)
• Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 (9.9%) and 1916 (8.2%)
• Herbert Hoover in 1940 (3.2%)

The numbers are the maximum fraction of delegate votes that they got.

The scenarios:

• Trump’s Best-Case Scenario - Grover Cleveland
• Falling Just Short - Ulysses Grant
• The Third-Party Option - Teddy Roosevelt

 

[bilby]

"... I will support the nominee of my party with all the energy I have.”
- Gerald Ford in March 1980

Can anyone seriously imagine Donald Trump saying that he would support someone other than Donald Trump "with all the energy I have"?

Or indeed making any expression whatsoever of support for anyone to do anything, unless he wants their support for himself (in which case has support for them would be buried under a mountain of self-aggrandising)?

Has DJT ever supported someone else in ANY endeavour, without a clear and unequivocal quid pro quo?

 

[lpetrich]

"... I will support the nominee of my party with all the energy I have.”
- Gerald Ford in March 1980

Can anyone seriously imagine Donald Trump saying that he would support someone other than Donald Trump "with all the energy I have"?

I agree on how totally out of character that would be for that egomaniac.

I looked for a source, and I found this:
Ford Says He Won't Be A Candidate - The Washington Post - March 16, 1980

"America needs a new president," Ford said in a statement he read to reporters outside his office at Rancho Mirage, Calif.

". . . I have determined that I can best help that cause by not being a candidate for president, which might further divide my party. I am not a candidate. I will not become a candidate. I will support the nominee of my party with all the energy I have."

Gerald Ford was Richard Nixon's VP when RN resigned because of the Watergate scandal. GF soon pardoned RN, an action that caused a lot of controversy.

 

[lpetrich]

 2024 United States presidential election
 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Looking at earlier years' Presidential races, most of the candidates entered the race in the first half of the previous year, though there were some stragglers. So we still have some months to go before we get an idea of who is seriously running.

 

[lpetrich]

When Might Other Republicans Challenge Trump For The 2024 Nomination? | FiveThirtyEight

Shows a histogram of when candidates entered the race before the Iowa caucuses. They started two month before, reached a peak at eleven months before then declined to nearly zero at a year and two or three months. There was a long tail extending out to nearly three years.

So by the end of this summer, nearly all the more serious entrants into the race should be in the running.

538 notes a problem with finding start times:

While we’ve tried to comprehensively examine when candidates most commonly launch presidential bids, it’s worth pointing out that registering the exact date a campaign begins is far murkier than the date of an FEC filing or a formal announcement. In reality, prospective candidates take steps toward running well before making anything official, such as gathering a stable of potential donors, identifying campaign staff and engaging in public activities that can signal a run, such as visiting early-voting states like Iowa, publishing a book about themselves or campaigning on behalf of candidates in other elections. Presidential aspirants sometimes form an “exploratory committee” to test the waters before taking more official steps. But candidates don’t have to register or report this activity to the FEC until they formally become a candidate, so sometimes we initially learn of an exploratory committee’s formation only because the candidate reveals it, a move that can garner a splash of media attention before the candidate later makes an official announcement. And more recently, some candidates like Jeb Bush have had allied super PACs raise gobs of money months before the candidate officially enters the race, blurring the lines of what even counts as “exploratory.”

So a candidate may be considering the possibility for some months before their official announcement.

 

[Elixir]

Yawn.

Has DJT ever supported someone else in ANY endeavour, without a clear and unequivocal quid pro quo?

Nope. There are no serious contenders. "Meatball" DeSantis stands only to tarnish himself by putting himself in the line of fire of Trump's shit cannon. WTF is a "serious" contender supposed to do to get a plurality over Trump, when there are at least a third of right wing voters who would favor hum over Jesus? Really - they're stuck with Trump until and unless he gets convicted of a felony or otherwise legally disqualified. And that's a goddam good thing for Democrats, who better come up with something more exciting (even if less competent) than Sleepy Joe. No hurry though. Might be best to pull a Santos on them, and come out at the last with an unknown flaunting incredible credentials. Even better if they don't have to make it all up like Santos.

 

[lpetrich]

Ranking the GOP’s top 10 presidential candidates | The Hill

1. Former President Trump
2. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
3. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley
4. Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas)
5. Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.)
6. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin
7. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott
8. Former Vice President Mike Pence
9. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
10. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem

Of these, the first and third ones are in the race, and the second one acts like he is.

 

[Derec]

Ranking the GOP’s top 10 presidential candidates | The Hill

1. Former President Trump
2. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
3. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley
4. Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas)
5. Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.)
6. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin
7. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott
8. Former Vice President Mike Pence
9. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
10. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem

Of these, the first and third ones are in the race, and the second one acts like he is.

Of these, #1 should be way further down, maybe #4 or #5.
Trump may be flying high in the polls, but I do not think he will do nearly as well as last time.
First, he is 8 years older. Will he have the stamina? I doubt it. He will run out of physical steam by next January.
Second, the shine is off because of how incompetent his administration was.
Third, his competitors will be aware of his MO and will be able to counter it better than in 2016.
Fourth, he will likely not have the MAGA lane to himself this time around. If both he and DeSantis contest that lane, I think advantage DeSantis. Esp. since Florida is one of the early states. And if Haley takes SC, we might have a real contest.
Fifth with an asterisk, danger of criminal indictments is the wildcard. Of course, if he is indicted and acquitted, he will probably benefit politically. So this one can go both ways.

 

[Derec]

"Haley isn’t in her prime.," he said. "A woman is in their prime in 20s and 30s and maybe 40s." https://t.co/rJrTTnMPRB" / Twitter
When pressed for details by his cohosts, he repeatedly responded "Google it".

That is pretty amazing. Would he have said something like that about Kamala Harris, who is 7 years older than Haley?
Or about Hillary, who was 69 when she ran in 2016 and 61 in 2008?

 

[Tigers!]

 2024 United States presidential election
 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Looking at earlier years' Presidential races, most of the candidates entered the race in the first half of the previous year, though there were some stragglers. So we still have some months to go before we get an idea of who is seriously running.

And sadly the rest of the world will be drowned in such idle speculation.

 

[Patooka]

 2024 United States presidential election
 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Looking at earlier years' Presidential races, most of the candidates entered the race in the first half of the previous year, though there were some stragglers. So we still have some months to go before we get an idea of who is seriously running.

And sadly the rest of the world will be drowned in such idle speculation.

It's fair to say the rest of the world has a vested interest in that.

 

[Patooka]

Can anyone seriously imagine Donald Trump saying that he would support someone other than Donald Trump "with all the energy I have"?

I can't imagine Trump saying "with all the energy I have" in any context

 

[Elixir]

I can imagine Donald Trump telling Putin (in private of course) he’d support him with all the energy he has…

 

[Patooka]

I can imagine Donald Trump telling Putin (in private of course) he’d support him with all the energy he has…

Still can't see it.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Nikki Haley interviewed at Faux. "Why not me?" Casts herself as a D.C. outsider. "The border!"

Why not Nikki Haley? Right winger. Republican. Same old, same old. Vague. No real well laid out plan she can point to, no platform.

 

[Tigers!]

 2024 United States presidential election
 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Looking at earlier years' Presidential races, most of the candidates entered the race in the first half of the previous year, though there were some stragglers. So we still have some months to go before we get an idea of who is seriously running.

And sadly the rest of the world will be drowned in such idle speculation.

It's fair to say the rest of the world has a vested interest in that.

There is a difference between having a vested interest and being sucked into a black hole. We are sucked into the black hole.

I am quite pleased that the US has regular elections. More power to them. What I am not pleased about is the assumption that the rest of the world cares as much as they do.
For example in Australia we will get breathless commentary, ad nauseum and ad infinitum, about the primaries in Akron, Ohio (why did I mention Akron, Ohio. Because in the last US election we were told about it. )
Do not know, do not care about Akron, Ohio or any other place beyond the black stump.

All I wish to know (eventually) is that Fred Nurk of the No-hopers party and Mary Bloggs of the My head is up my bum party are the candidates for the election. Then give us the results in Nov. 20xx.
All else is pointless, wasteful noise to me. Please spare us your torment.

 

[TV and credit cards]

There is a difference between having a vested interest and being sucked into a black hole. We are sucked into the black hole.

I am quite pleased that the US has regular elections. More power to them. What I am not pleased about is the assumption that the rest of the world cares as much as they do.
For example in Australia we will get breathless commentary, ad nauseum and ad infinitum, about the primaries in Akron, Ohio (why did I mention Akron, Ohio. Because in the last US election we were told about it. )
Do not know, do not care about Akron, Ohio or any other place beyond the black stump.

All I wish to know (eventually) is that Fred Nurk of the No-hopers party and Mary Bloggs of the My head is up my bum party are the candidates for the election. Then give us the results in Nov. 20xx.
All else is pointless, wasteful noise to me. Please spare us your torment.

Well who's reporting on it all? Evidently some in your country care enough to keep it in your press.
I'll give you Akron though. That's uncalled for. I'm twenty minutes away and I hardly give a fuck.

When I don't care about a topic any longer, I stop paying attention to it. Be it not reading the news articles or not watching our 24 hour Trump channel, MSNBC. I've burned out on it. When the shit stain is in orange coveralls, I'll take notice again.