The Race For 2024

[TSwizzle]

You have answered nothing!

Of course I have.

What part of 4% unemployment, record stock market, lower crime rate, a lot of new jobs, better foreign relations do you not like?

Sure, Jan.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I'm so embarrassed that our country would even consider voting for Trump.

Trump should not get anywhere near the levers of power. But it is more important that cackling Kamala and the democrats are kept out of the Oval Office. That’s how bad she is.

What is Harris proposing to do that is 10% as crazy as trump wanting to outlaw vaccines?

She offers nothing but to continue with Brandon’s ruinous policies.

What did Brandon do that was 10% as crazy as Trump wanting to ban vaccines?

Already answered.

You have answered nothing!
What part of 4% unemployment, record stock market, lower crime rate, a lot of new jobs, better foreign relations do you not like?

Good list. I’d also add that inflation is down, no further countries invaded by Russia, economy heading in right direction Covid contained.

 

[Tigers!]

... New data from CNN shows women are significantly outvoting men in critical swing states.

This is meaningless info and shouldn't be taken as statistically relevant.

Why? A gender more likely to vote early may be more likely to vote at all. The strong gender/party correlation in post-rational Amerika is undisputed:

♂ ♀
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Because it requires analyzing a partial set of data as full.

You’re describing every poll in the history of the world.

I’d be interested to know how many wives are going to the polls without their husbands.

As long as they are not going to St Ives with their man

 

[Tigers!]

" Some analysts have suggested the polls could even be understating support for Harris."

Were I on Harris' election team I would totally be encouraging that.

The Democrats as a group are largely from low turnout demographics. It's easy to get them to stay home. Keep everyone on the edge of their seats.

I honestly believe that Trump's victory in 2016 was a result of Democratic apathy. Polls consistently showed Clinton way out in front. As a result, enough voters in swing states, Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania, stayed home or made some protest vote to result in a Trump presidency. Writing in Bernie Sanders was a vote for Trump.

I'd rather the Democrats didn't make that mistake again.
Tom

Compulsory voting or at least compulsory turning up at a polling station.

 

[Elixir]

I'm so embarrassed that our country would even consider voting for Trump.

Trump should not get anywhere near the levers of power. But it is more important that cackling Kamala and the democrats are kept out of the Oval Office. That’s how bad she is.

What is Harris proposing to do that is 10% as crazy as trump wanting to outlaw vaccines?

She offers nothing but to continue with Brandon’s ruinous policies.

What did Brandon do that was 10% as crazy as Trump wanting to ban vaccines?

Already answered.

Damn, I missed it.
Most specific policies can be identified in a word. Since you can’t even be arsed to identify any, they must be rather unimportant to you, no? Yet still more important than letting a kompromatted fascist wannabe dictator take control of the US military.
I guess Trump has a lock on the “don’t give a fuck about America” segment

 

[unapologetic]

But it is more important that cackling Kamala and the democrats are kept out of the Oval Office. That’s how bad she is.

Rant on troll.

He doesn't like her laugh and that means she shouldn't be president.

That’s an asinine thing to say. There’s even less to Harris than the laugh.

You're the one who keeps going on about her laugh. Stick to issues.

Of course I have.

No, you just contradict all the known incapabilities of Rump.

 

[Elixir]

No, you just contradict all the known incapabilities of Rump.

Nobody, not even Swiz, has that much time on their hands.

 

[southernhybrid]

But it is more important that cackling Kamala and the democrats are kept out of the Oval Office. That’s how bad she is.

Rant on troll.

He doesn't like her laugh and that means she shouldn't be president.

That’s an asinine thing to say. There’s even less to Harris than the laugh.

You're the one who keeps going on about her laugh. Stick to issues.

Of course I have.

No, you just contradict all the known incapabilities of Rump.

Considering where he gets his fake news, that's no surprise. He reminds me of my bro in law and one of my neighbors, who think Harris and Biden are destroying the country, but Trump will cause no harm. Sad.

 

[TSwizzle]

Rant on troll.

I’m sure calling someone a troll is against the forum tou.

You're the one who keeps going on about her laugh. Stick to issues.

I don’t see you complaining about the name calling of others.

No, you just contradict all the known incapabilities of Rump

You are consistent I’ll give you that. Trump is incapable of governing. But I’ll take his incompetence for four years over dopey Harris and the ruinous policies of the Brandon regime which she will undoubtedly continue with and make even worse.

 

[ZiprHead]

I'm so embarrassed that our country would even consider voting for Trump.

Trump should not get anywhere near the levers of power. But it is more important that cackling Kamala and the democrats are kept out of the Oval Office. That’s how bad she is.

What is Harris proposing to do that is 10% as crazy as trump wanting to outlaw vaccines?

She offers nothing but to continue with Brandon’s ruinous policies.

Which policies are those?

 

[ZiprHead]

I hope you have a very sharp knife. The dull ones hurt more.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[laughing dog]

I hope you have a very sharp knife. The dull ones hurt more.

If Harris wins Iowa, she wins the Presidency by a landslide.

 

[unapologetic]

Compulsory voting or at least compulsory turning up at a polling station.

Force me to vote, and I'll vote against the idiots who made it compulsory.

I’m sure calling someone a troll is against the forum tou.

If your being a troll is acceptable, I don't see how calling you out on it wouldn't be.

I don’t see you complaining about the name calling of others.

I don't care what you call Harris. Your promoting of a demented fascist worries me greatly.

I’ll take his incompetence for four years over dopey Harris

Your priorities are very whacked.

Give this guy a Darwin award. He could even survive to receive it.

 

[Tigers!]

Compulsory voting or at least compulsory turning up at a polling station.

Force me to vote, and I'll vote against the idiots who made it compulsory.

So long as you vote mate.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Polls for everyone out there. Polls indicated a red tide, Trump taking 312 EVs. A broader blue wave, with Harris taking 309 to 325 EVs. And anything in between.

It looks bad for Harris
She is under polling all of Biden's numbers in 2020.
She has almost no battleground states at 50% or better.

It looks bad for Trump
Ann Selzer's poll in Iowa provides breadcrumbs for a Dewey beats Truman showdown with women over 50 polling hard towards Harris.
Polling orgs showing Trump doing well, also indicate he is winning popular vote, which I feel is mathematically impossible. To me, this justifies shifting those state polls.

Thoughts in Harris's Favor
Harris is the quasi-incumbent and incumbents manage better than average. W and Obama approval polling wasn't good, but they pulled off re-elections.
Dobbs is baked into the system and unlike most political issues that evaporate, this one isn't going anywhere. 2022 was a remarkably good midterm for the Democrats, in a historical sense while in the White House.

Thoughts in Trump's Favor
Trump has been overperforming polls since 2016. If that trend continues, he has this in the bank.

Not much left to say.

 

[Swammerdami]

Jimmy Kimmel prepared some clips of Trump's own speeches, suggesting that you show it to any friend or relative thinking of voting for Trump. If you can get Uncle Archie to spend a few minutes actually listening to Trump, you might change his mind.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

The numbers sure are discouraging.

Even if Harris wins, there needs to be some no bullshit discussion among the left of center about the mistakes the Dems have made over the last 10+ years. I should be numb to this by now, but it's still unfathomable to me how Trump was ever in any serious running for any public office anywhere.

But he is.

If Trump wins, then it doesn't matter. Any introspection that needed to occur following 2016 will just be whistling into the wind.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The numbers sure are discouraging.

Even if Harris wins, there needs to be some no bullshit discussion among the left of center about the mistakes the Dems have made over the last 10+ years.

What mistakes? The GOP has no plan. Almost every ad against Sherod Brown is about transgenders in girls sports and child sex operations. That's it. Ads against Emilia Sykes is about how she let the border get flooded with illegals and defund the police dark money is funding her.

The GOP has fucking nothing. There is no plan. The Democrats, once again, boarded a listing ship, by the end of the term, the ship is doing okay. What else could Biden do, other than sell his accomplishments better? How many more jobs created? How much higher the stock market? How much higher the real wage growth? The Dems managed a miracle with two budget reconciliation bills! Other than that, the Senate is deadlocked, shy of the super-majority.

The alt-right is railing on transgender child sex operations. Hyperbole and lies is all they have left! Trump is railing against immigrants like it is the 19th century and anti-woman civil rights folks are complaining about women being allowed to vote on their own. This is what the DNC is up against!

 

[Harry Bosch]

The numbers sure are discouraging.

Even if Harris wins, there needs to be some no bullshit discussion among the left of center about the mistakes the Dems have made over the last 10+ years. I should be numb to this by now, but it's still unfathomable to me how Trump was ever in any serious running for any public office anywhere.

But he is.

If Trump wins, then it doesn't matter. Any introspection that needed to occur following 2016 will just be whistling into the wind.

Agreed. There will be and should be a lot of soul searching after this election as to why it was so close. I’m going to withhold judgement until after. But I suspect that we will rue the decision to not shore up Harris weaknesses by not picking Sharpio. I’m okay with being the big tent party. But we need to attract enough moderates to win elections.