I hope Harris sticks her ass in Trump's face and shits all over it on election night. Metaphorically speaking of course.Harris has four-point national lead in final Marist poll.
Lead in what?Harris has four-point national lead in final Marist poll.
Popular vote isn't important as a metric for getting an automated electoral victory, but the higher the margin is, the less likely for Trump to win the Electoral College. Honestly, I'd feel more comfortable at 6 pts, but Biden was around 4 pts and won. And of course, Marist is but one poll.Lead in what?Harris has four-point national lead in final Marist poll.
She could get a 20M vote majority from the American people. But if the Republicans who run state legislatures and Congress overrule them and call out the Deplorables Trump could be victorious and ascend to power.
Again.
Tom
Again, using subsets to determine the full set is dubious, but this does at least present a potential full set.poll said:
- 55% of likely voters report they have already voted, and Harris receives 56% support among those who say they have done so. Trump (53%) has majority support among those who say they have yet to vote.
- Harris (63%) leads Trump (34%) by 29 points among non-white voters, up from the 21-point lead she had in early October. Trump (54%) is ahead of Harris (45%) by 9 points among white voters, similar to the 8-point lead he had last month
This is the problem that I see.Popular vote isn't important as a metric
Popular vote isn't important as a metric for getting an automated electoral victory, but the higher the margin is, the less likely for Trump to win the Electoral College. Honestly, I'd feel more comfortable at 6 pts, but Biden was around 4 pts and won. And of course, Marist is but one poll.
Yep. Harris is a big big underdog tomorrow. I’m hoping we can at least win the house.Popular vote isn't important as a metric for getting an automated electoral victory, but the higher the margin is, the less likely for Trump to win the Electoral College. Honestly, I'd feel more comfortable at 6 pts, but Biden was around 4 pts and won. And of course, Marist is but one poll.
Biden was up 8.4% at the final FiveThirtyEight poll aggregations, and about the same at other poll aggregations. But on Election Day, he won the popular vote by only 4.5%.
I've mentioned this uncomfortable fact before, in this very thread. Hillary also did better in the final polls than she did in the actual election.
In Trump's previous 2 runs for POTUS, polls UNDER-estimated his vote. We now desperately hope this reverses for 2024.
I don't like this info being released. It feels wrong.Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.
The article I read does not say how they derived this.I don't like this info being released. It feels wrong.Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.
Indeed. If 2024 polling is like 2016 and 2020, better make certain you've gassed up your enough to keep it running in the garage.Popular vote isn't important as a metric for getting an automated electoral victory, but the higher the margin is, the less likely for Trump to win the Electoral College. Honestly, I'd feel more comfortable at 6 pts, but Biden was around 4 pts and won. And of course, Marist is but one poll.
Biden was up 8.4% at the final FiveThirtyEight poll aggregations, and about the same at other poll aggregations. But on Election Day, he won the popular vote by only 4.5%.
Ask how many people voted early, who did they vote for. Who didn't vote early, who are they planning to vote for.The article I read does not say how they derived this.I don't like this info being released. It feels wrong.Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.
Hence the reason why Trump and his minions will try to get as many mail in votes disqualified as he can as he did last time.Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.
Ask how many people voted early, who did they vote for. Who didn't vote early, who are they planning to vote for.The article I read does not say how they derived this.I don't like this info being released. It feels wrong.Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.
States are releasing data on how many have voted early. Then add some math... a little salt... and then we don't take it too seriously.Ask how many people voted early, who did they vote for. Who didn't vote early, who are they planning to vote for.The article I read does not say how they derived this.I don't like this info being released. It feels wrong.Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.
But how would you know who to ask? It’s not like exit polling, where you can ask people after they leave the voting booth.
I'm not talking about the tangible things. My guess is that you and I would agree on about 99% of that. What I'm talking about are the intangibles--the things that have alienated large voting blocks, men in particular. The Dems can fix that with some effort.What mistakes? The GOP has no plan. Almost every ad against Sherod Brown is about transgenders in girls sports and child sex operations. That's it. Ads against Emilia Sykes is about how she let the border get flooded with illegals and defund the police dark money is funding her.The numbers sure are discouraging.
Even if Harris wins, there needs to be some no bullshit discussion among the left of center about the mistakes the Dems have made over the last 10+ years.
The GOP has fucking nothing. There is no plan. The Democrats, once again, boarded a listing ship, by the end of the term, the ship is doing okay. What else could Biden do, other than sell his accomplishments better? How many more jobs created? How much higher the stock market? How much higher the real wage growth? The Dems managed a miracle with two budget reconciliation bills! Other than that, the Senate is deadlocked, shy of the super-majority.
The alt-right is railing on transgender child sex operations. Hyperbole and lies is all they have left! Trump is railing against immigrants like it is the 19th century and anti-woman civil rights folks are complaining about women being allowed to vote on their own. This is what the DNC is up against!
Same here. Even if mass violence against his political enemies doesn't occur*, our civil rights are in great jeopardy due to SCOTUS being Trump's lapdog.I’m most fearful of the steps the fascists will be able to take to make sure it’s never so close again, if their apricot is installed.There will be and should be a lot of soul searching after this election as to why it was so close.
Yep. Harris is a big big underdog tomorrow. I’m hoping we can at least win the house.Popular vote isn't important as a metric for getting an automated electoral victory, but the higher the margin is, the less likely for Trump to win the Electoral College. Honestly, I'd feel more comfortable at 6 pts, but Biden was around 4 pts and won. And of course, Marist is but one poll.
Biden was up 8.4% at the final FiveThirtyEight poll aggregations, and about the same at other poll aggregations. But on Election Day, he won the popular vote by only 4.5%.
I've mentioned this uncomfortable fact before, in this very thread. Hillary also did better in the final polls than she did in the actual election.
In Trump's previous 2 runs for POTUS, polls UNDER-estimated his vote. We now desperately hope this reverses for 2024.
Feels like insider trading or something.I don't like this info being released. It feels wrong.Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.