The Race For 2024

[Elixir]

There will be and should be a lot of soul searching after this election as to why it was so close.

I’m most fearful of the steps the fascists will be able to take to make sure it’s never so close again, if their apricot is installed.

 

[pood]

Harris has four-point national lead in final Marist poll.

 

[BH]

Harris has four-point national lead in final Marist poll.

I hope Harris sticks her ass in Trump's face and shits all over it on election night. Metaphorically speaking of course.

Doug Emhoff and Donald Trump were getting their hair cut at a barber shop.

Donald Trump says "Melania says my aftershave smells like the inside of a whorehouse"

Emhoff replies "How does she know what a whorehouse smells like?"

 

[TomC]

Harris has four-point national lead in final Marist poll.

Lead in what?

She could get a 20M vote majority from the American people. But if the Republicans who run state legislatures and Congress overrule them and call out the Deplorables Trump could be victorious and ascend to power.
Again.
Tom

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Harris has four-point national lead in final Marist poll.

Lead in what?

She could get a 20M vote majority from the American people. But if the Republicans who run state legislatures and Congress overrule them and call out the Deplorables Trump could be victorious and ascend to power.
Again.
Tom

Popular vote isn't important as a metric for getting an automated electoral victory, but the higher the margin is, the less likely for Trump to win the Electoral College. Honestly, I'd feel more comfortable at 6 pts, but Biden was around 4 pts and won. And of course, Marist is but one poll.

Regarding the Marist poll.

• 55% of likely voters report they have already voted, and Harris receives 56% support among those who say they have done so. Trump (53%) has majority support among those who say they have yet to vote.
• Harris (63%) leads Trump (34%) by 29 points among non-white voters, up from the 21-point lead she had in early October. Trump (54%) is ahead of Harris (45%) by 9 points among white voters, similar to the 8-point lead he had last month

Again, using subsets to determine the full set is dubious, but this does at least present a potential full set.

0.55*(.56)+*.45(.47) = 52% of the popular vote. 52 v 48... 4 pt lead. *grain of salt*

 

[TomC]

Popular vote isn't important as a metric

This is the problem that I see.

It doesn't matter what we Americans think is the best thing to do. What matters is that the wealthy elite want something that works for them.

That's why I support NationalPopularVote. Give the people the ability to decide who is POTUS.
Tom

 

[Swammerdami]

Popular vote isn't important as a metric for getting an automated electoral victory, but the higher the margin is, the less likely for Trump to win the Electoral College. Honestly, I'd feel more comfortable at 6 pts, but Biden was around 4 pts and won. And of course, Marist is but one poll.

Biden was up 8.4% at the final FiveThirtyEight poll aggregations, and about the same at other poll aggregations. But on Election Day, he won the popular vote by only 4.5%.

I've mentioned this uncomfortable fact before, in this very thread. Hillary also did better in the final polls than she did in the actual election.
In Trump's previous 2 runs for POTUS, polls UNDER-estimated his vote. We now desperately hope this reverses for 2024.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Popular vote isn't important as a metric for getting an automated electoral victory, but the higher the margin is, the less likely for Trump to win the Electoral College. Honestly, I'd feel more comfortable at 6 pts, but Biden was around 4 pts and won. And of course, Marist is but one poll.

Biden was up 8.4% at the final FiveThirtyEight poll aggregations, and about the same at other poll aggregations. But on Election Day, he won the popular vote by only 4.5%.

I've mentioned this uncomfortable fact before, in this very thread. Hillary also did better in the final polls than she did in the actual election.
In Trump's previous 2 runs for POTUS, polls UNDER-estimated his vote. We now desperately hope this reverses for 2024.

Yep. Harris is a big big underdog tomorrow. I’m hoping we can at least win the house.

 

[pood]

Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.

 

[pood]

The cite above from PBS does not say how they came to those totals. But last election about 158 million people voted. About half of that total has already been reached this year via early voting. If Harris is indeed ahead 56-42 among these early voters, Trump would need a massive vote on election day to win the election.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.

I don't like this info being released. It feels wrong.

 

[pood]

Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.

I don't like this info being released. It feels wrong.

The article I read does not say how they derived this.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Popular vote isn't important as a metric for getting an automated electoral victory, but the higher the margin is, the less likely for Trump to win the Electoral College. Honestly, I'd feel more comfortable at 6 pts, but Biden was around 4 pts and won. And of course, Marist is but one poll.

Biden was up 8.4% at the final FiveThirtyEight poll aggregations, and about the same at other poll aggregations. But on Election Day, he won the popular vote by only 4.5%.

Indeed. If 2024 polling is like 2016 and 2020, better make certain you've gassed up your enough to keep it running in the garage.

BUT!!! that isn't set in stone. The polling might be different now and they polling Trump better. Might!

There are reasons to be optimistic.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.

I don't like this info being released. It feels wrong.

The article I read does not say how they derived this.

Ask how many people voted early, who did they vote for. Who didn't vote early, who are they planning to vote for.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.

Hence the reason why Trump and his minions will try to get as many mail in votes disqualified as he can as he did last time.

 

[pood]

Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.

I don't like this info being released. It feels wrong.

The article I read does not say how they derived this.

Ask how many people voted early, who did they vote for. Who didn't vote early, who are they planning to vote for.

But how would you know who to ask? It’s not like exit polling, where you can ask people after they leave the voting booth.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Among those who have already voted, PBS says, Harris leads 56 percent to 42 percent. Almost 80 million ballots have been cast.

I don't like this info being released. It feels wrong.

The article I read does not say how they derived this.

Ask how many people voted early, who did they vote for. Who didn't vote early, who are they planning to vote for.

But how would you know who to ask? It’s not like exit polling, where you can ask people after they leave the voting booth.

States are releasing data on how many have voted early. Then add some math... a little salt... and then we don't take it too seriously.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

The numbers sure are discouraging.

Even if Harris wins, there needs to be some no bullshit discussion among the left of center about the mistakes the Dems have made over the last 10+ years.

What mistakes? The GOP has no plan. Almost every ad against Sherod Brown is about transgenders in girls sports and child sex operations. That's it. Ads against Emilia Sykes is about how she let the border get flooded with illegals and defund the police dark money is funding her.

The GOP has fucking nothing. There is no plan. The Democrats, once again, boarded a listing ship, by the end of the term, the ship is doing okay. What else could Biden do, other than sell his accomplishments better? How many more jobs created? How much higher the stock market? How much higher the real wage growth? The Dems managed a miracle with two budget reconciliation bills! Other than that, the Senate is deadlocked, shy of the super-majority.

The alt-right is railing on transgender child sex operations. Hyperbole and lies is all they have left! Trump is railing against immigrants like it is the 19th century and anti-woman civil rights folks are complaining about women being allowed to vote on their own. This is what the DNC is up against!

I'm not talking about the tangible things. My guess is that you and I would agree on about 99% of that. What I'm talking about are the intangibles--the things that have alienated large voting blocks, men in particular. The Dems can fix that with some effort.

Other things that concern me include something you mentioned: the trans community. There is a serious conversation that needs to be had about that, but today is not that day. The only thing I will say about that is that it's something the Democratic party likely can't control.

There will be and should be a lot of soul searching after this election as to why it was so close.

I’m most fearful of the steps the fascists will be able to take to make sure it’s never so close again, if their apricot is installed.

Same here. Even if mass violence against his political enemies doesn't occur*, our civil rights are in great jeopardy due to SCOTUS being Trump's lapdog.

If Trump wins, it not a matter if, but when--however long it takes for X state to e.g. ban same sex marriage. My guess is that these types of matters will be fast-tracked from the trial and appellate courts to SCOTUS. That's assuming state and federal procedure will even be adhered to. If it isn't adhered to, then we could be looking at the loss of god knows how many rights in a matter of weeks.

Introspection will do nothing for us at that point.

*It will occur.

 

[Swammerdami]

Popular vote isn't important as a metric for getting an automated electoral victory, but the higher the margin is, the less likely for Trump to win the Electoral College. Honestly, I'd feel more comfortable at 6 pts, but Biden was around 4 pts and won. And of course, Marist is but one poll.

Biden was up 8.4% at the final FiveThirtyEight poll aggregations, and about the same at other poll aggregations. But on Election Day, he won the popular vote by only 4.5%.

I've mentioned this uncomfortable fact before, in this very thread. Hillary also did better in the final polls than she did in the actual election.
In Trump's previous 2 runs for POTUS, polls UNDER-estimated his vote. We now desperately hope this reverses for 2024.

Yep. Harris is a big big underdog tomorrow. I’m hoping we can at least win the house.

I do NOT idolize Polymarket, but it knows more than I do. Its predictions are at least as good as seven yokels on the Atheist Board.


41% -- Ds win Popular Vote. AND Electoral College.
31% -- Ds win Popular Vote. Rs win Electoral College
26% -- Rs win Popular Vote AND Electoral College
2.7% -- Rs win Popular Vote but LOSE Electoral College
100% -- Total (rounding 2.7 down)

(The above is per Polymarket. Starting from their data, I make back-of-the-ass guesstimates for a wider array of results:

* 5% -- Ds are returned to WH. Politics improve as R leaders gradually engage with rational thought.
* 10% -- Ds are returned to the White House. In the short term, 2025-2027 resemble 2022-2023, or a little worse.
* 11% -- Ds retain the White House, but riots, shootings and bombings ensue. However civil order gradually improves
* 8% -- Ds retain the White House, but riots, shootings and bombings ensue. Civil disorder worsens, dismal and unpredictable.
* 9% [ split out below -- 9%] -- To avoid bloodshed, the Ds despite EC win permit Trump to take power
* 24% [inc 2%] -- Rs take WH. Only parts of Project 2025 are adopted
* 30% [inc 3%]-- Rs take WH. Much of Project 2025 is adopted, along with grifts, lies and frauds.
* 12% [inc 4%]-- Rs take WH. Most of Project 2025 is adopted. Attempts to thwart or enforce this agenda become violent.

I appreciate that folks would prefer a more sanguine guesstimate. I suffer from excess honesty.

A 10% chance that most of a fascist agenda will be enacted; 66% total that Trump (Vance?) will occupy the WH.

$3 million total is bet on Senate control, with Rs 81% vs 20% for Ds. ABC123ABC is the big D bettor. DumbMoney2.0, JishWa and dopium are R bettors.

Betfair shows 59% Trump, 40% Harris for the White House..
Is the House of Reps a toss-up guess?
With only $21k bet, ... Betfair shows House control by the Ds 53.6%, by the Rs 46.5%. A toss-up?

 

[Swammerdami]

This Cohen-Kirschner video explains that any other defendant out on bail would be Revoked and detained in jail awaiting trial or (in one case) sentencing for a felony.

Two separate grounds exist for the Revoking of Bail.
(1) The Bail Agreement denies defendant the right to commit more crimes, but Arizona State Attorney has presented "clear and convincing" evidence that Trump's threats against Liz Cheney were felonious. (Under the terms of such bail agreements, federal, state and local crimes all qualify for the revocation of such bail.)
(2) Defendant's release endangers one or more human persons, e.g. Liz Cheney.