The Race For 2024

[Derec]

You shouldn't sweat the polls because Biden needs WI, MI, PA, NV (or just one district in Nebraska). Trump can take AZ and GA and will still lose. Biden will campaign hard in the battleground wall states. Wisconsin is the weakest state, but that has been trending bluish purple for statewides, and with Roe v Wade on every ballot these days, that doesn't bode well for Trump or most Republicans. Hailey is the only Republican savvy enough to tread those waters.

Sounds like a lot of hopium one's been seeing in 2016.

 

[Derec]

There's a ton about the U.S. political landscape I don't get

Indeed.

But what if see right now is Biden, incumbent who built a career by winning elections and is backed up by Harris. Then Trump, who got his ass kicked in the last election and hasn't ever won a real election and is backed up by Corcoran.

Biden did abysmally the first two times he ran. First time, in 1988 (just goes to show how ancient he is) he had to drop out due to a plagiarism scandal and he finished 5th in Iowa in 2008. The only thing that rehabilitated him was Obama tapping him for Veep.
Both Biden and Trump won one presidential election each. I fail to see why you don't think the 2016 election was "real". He won that against odds, since almost everyone predicted Hillary would walk away with it. On the other hand, Biden won in 2020 in a highly unusual election, where campaigning was severely limited and against an incumbent who was, due largely to his own missteps re COVID, very unpopular.
I am concerned that after limited campaigning in 2020 and no real primaries in 2024, Biden will be largely untested for the general election campaign. He can't run this one from his basement like in 2020!

It looks to me like it would take a violent insurrection to install Trump, at this point.

I don't think so. Biden is very unpopular. Trump is too, but he edges him or at least ties in all recent polls. Then you have the wild card - Sibling Cornell West. He may only draw 2% or less nationwide, but that would be enough to throw the spanner in the works in close states.

ETA ~I forgot the abortion thing Jimmy Higgins mentioned.

That and Trump being Trump are two best things Biden has going for him, yes.

P.S.: Who is Corcoran? You don't mean Corky?

 

[Derec]

Trump isn't going to be the nominee....

I do not think that's certain by any means, but I'd give it more than even odds.

 

[Derec]

Watchdog group sues to block Trump from Colorado ballot, citing 14th Amendment’s disqualification clause

That's just ridiculous, in my opinion. Trump hasn't been convicted of anything yet. And without conviction, you don't have an adjudication of facts. Yes, I know, the claim is that the 14th Amendment clause is self-executing, like the McGuffin from Tenet. But a piece of parchment cannot execute itself any more than a piece of machine code can execute itself without a CPU. You need government bodies to do that. And their actions are subject to judicial review.
So this "watchdog group" sues. It lands before the SCOTUS. How will they rule, I wonder? Any chance they say Trump is ineligible? I don't think so. So, the effort will fail, and Trump looks like somebody being besieged from all sides, which will only help him politically.

 

[Elixir]

If Murka suckers for a career criminal again, this time KNOWING he's a career criminal, we will get what we deserve.

Funny thing is, 99.99% of those who vote for him will number among the rest of us, as victims of the following kleptocracy.
I don't expect them to EVER blame the kleptocrats, as they will have urgent needs for food, shelter, clothing, healthcare etc., and there will be a ready list of villains to blame for their plight - all of whom were opposed to the kleptocracy, but will now pay the price for being so uppity.
This country will become a hellscape of bilionaires' fiefdoms - even moreso than it is today. And the suffering masses will be told to give thanks to their economic overlords for saving them from the horrors of democracy.

 

[thebeave]

I remember a pretty widespread claim from late in Trump's term saying that if he was impeached twice, that meant he couldn't run for re-election (per the Constitution, I assume). He's been impeached twice now, but no one seems to bring it up as an issue anymore. I assume that was a bogus claim, but what was the impetus for that in the first place, and how did it just go away?

 

[Elixir]

I remember a pretty widespread claim from late in Trump's term saying that if he was impeached twice, that meant he couldn't run for re-election (per the Constitution, I assume). He's been impeached twice now, but no one seems to bring it up as an issue anymore. I assume that was a bogus claim, but what was the impetus for that in the first place, and how did it just go away?

I don't think that being widespread gives claims any legal standing.
I was given to understand that only upon conviction (which thanks to McTurtle never happened) is a president disqualified from running again.

 

[ZiprHead]

That Big Poll Showing Trump and Biden Are Evenly Matched? Trump Helped Pay for It.

The Wall Street Journal poll is being cited in all the mainstream media outlets, with no caveat that Donald Trump’s Super PAC paid one of the pollsters.

newrepublic.com

Also, as was pointed out a couple nights ago by Chris Hayes, Reagan and Mondale were tied at this time before that election and Reagan won by 20 points. Clinton and Bob Dole were also tied at this time and Clinton trounced Dole in the election.

It's quite silly to put any stock in any pole this far out.

 

[ZiprHead]

Watchdog group sues to block Trump from Colorado ballot, citing 14th Amendment’s disqualification clause

That's just ridiculous, in my opinion. Trump hasn't been convicted of anything yet. And without conviction, you don't have an adjudication of facts. Yes, I know, the claim is that the 14th Amendment clause is self-executing, like the McGuffin from Tenet. But a piece of parchment cannot execute itself any more than a piece of machine code can execute itself without a CPU. You need government bodies to do that. And their actions are subject to judicial review.
So this "watchdog group" sues. It lands before the SCOTUS. How will they rule, I wonder? Any chance they say Trump is ineligible? I don't think so. So, the effort will fail, and Trump looks like somebody being besieged from all sides, which will only help him politically.

The vast majority of those the 14th was used against were not adjudicated for anything.

 

[pood]

Keeping Santa Monica’s weather pleasant.

Santa Monica's weather has always been pleasant.
It will always be pleasant.
God bless Santa Monica's weather.

Santa Monica’s future.

View attachment IMG_8712.webp

 

[ZiprHead]

Why the Constitution Blocks Trump Being President Again

Prominent conservative scholars are making the case that the Constitution does not allow Donald Trump to be president

time.com

January 6, 2021 changed that. At least, it did if you accept the arguments put forward in the University of Pennsylvania law Review by leading conservative originalists William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen and in an article by Federalist Society co-founder Steven Calabresi. Trump engaged in insurrection, they argue, and declaring him ineligible for the Presidency is no more than the Constitution demands. “[T]he case is not even close,” Baude and Paulsen declare. “All who are committed to the Constitution should take note and say so.”

 

[Derec]

This country will become a hellscape of bilionaires' fiefdoms - even moreso than it is today. And the suffering masses will be told to give thanks to their economic overlords for saving them from the horrors of democracy.

That's just fearmongering. I do not expect a hypothetical Trump 2nd term to be very different from his first. Except that he would be much more likely to be replaced by his vice president this time around, since he would be 8 years older than during his first term.

 

[Derec]

That Big Poll Showing Trump and Biden Are Evenly Matched? Trump Helped Pay for It.

The Wall Street Journal poll is being cited in all the mainstream media outlets, with no caveat that Donald Trump’s Super PAC paid one of the pollsters.

newrepublic.com

"New Republic" is aligned with the Democratic Party, is it not? In any case, they try to cast aspersions on the poll, but

Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio conducted the survey in partnership with a Democratic colleague, Michael Bocian.

And even if that genetic fallacy attack on the WSJ poll had merit, it would only matter if that poll was an outlier. But it isn't. It's very much in line with other polls, like the recent CNN poll.
One nice thing about the WSJ poll though - they included both a direct Biden-Trump matchup and one that includes Cornel West. Without West, Biden and Trump are even Steven. With West, Biden loses by one.

Also, as was pointed out a couple nights ago by Chris Hayes, Reagan and Mondale were tied at this time before that election and Reagan won by 20 points. Clinton and Bob Dole were also tied at this time and Clinton trounced Dole in the election.

First, Chris Hayes, another very partisan commentator. Second, did he offer any sources for his claim?

It's quite silly to put any stock in any pole this far out.

He is right of course that it's still very early days and a lot can happen. But that can go either way, of course.
However, I do think that we can safely say that at this stage of the race, Biden and Trump are pretty evenly matched. Not because of any single pole[sic], but because recent polls are pretty consistent in this regard.

 

[Derec]

The vast majority of those the 14th was used against were not adjudicated for anything.

Could be. I am not a Civil War buff.
Nevertheless, do you really think this 14th Amendment gambit will work? Or do you realize it's just a lot of hopium?

 

[Derec]

Santa Monica’s future.

Pro tip. The forum software does not support webp files. You can always convert them to jpg or png and upload that way.

 

[bilby]

I remember a pretty widespread claim from late in Trump's term saying that if he was impeached twice, that meant he couldn't run for re-election (per the Constitution, I assume). He's been impeached twice now, but no one seems to bring it up as an issue anymore. I assume that was a bogus claim, but what was the impetus for that in the first place, and how did it just go away?

I don't think that being widespread gives claims any legal standing.
I was given to understand that only upon conviction (which thanks to McTurtle never happened) is a president disqualified from running again.

Impeachment isn't required:

"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once." - 22nd Amendment

Trump was elected to the office in 2016, and according to Trump himself, and his supporters, he was elected to the office a second time in 2020. He is therefore ineligible to be elected again, according to his own frequently and publicly stated claims.

 

[AdamWho]

The vast majority of those the 14th was used against were not adjudicated for anything.

Could be. I am not a Civil War buff.
Nevertheless, do you really think this 14th Amendment gambit will work? Or do you realize it's just a lot of hopium?

You don't need to be a Civil War buff to understand that all those Confederate soldiers were not put on trial. much less convicted of insurrection.

 

[Elixir]

The vast majority of those the 14th was used against were not adjudicated for anything.

Could be. I am not a Civil War buff.
Nevertheless, do you really think this 14th Amendment gambit will work? Or do you realize it's just a lot of hopium?

You don't need to be a Civil War buff to understand that all those Confederate soldiers were not put on trial. much less convicted of insurrection.

They also didn’t become President.

 

[ZiprHead]

New Mexico banishes Trump ally from office for insurrection

A New Mexico state district court judge has disqualified county commissioner and Cowboys for Trump cofounder Couy Griffin from holding public office.

apnews.com

SANTA FE, N.M. (AP) — A New Mexico state district court judge on Tuesday disqualified county commissioner and Cowboys for Trump cofounder Couy Griffin from holding public office for engaging in insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

The judgment from state District Court Judge Francis Mathew permanently bars Griffin from federal and local public office. It arrived amid a spate of lawsuits aimed at sidelining political candidates and elected officials linked to the Capitol riots.

Griffin was previously convicted in federal court of a misdemeanor for entering Capitol grounds on Jan. 6, without going inside the building. He was sentenced to 14 days and given credit for time served.

 

[robnisch]

Amnesty Act - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This is interesting.