The Race For 2024

[lpetrich]

Polling is becoming more and more useless every day.

A former Australian PM, Malcolm Fraser, used to say that the only poll that counts is the one on the day i.e. election day.

 It Ain't Over 'til It's Over

But pre-election polls are good for getting an idea of how people are likely to vote, and that's good for political strategy. Also good are previous election results, for that reason also. One has to concede that both are risky. The analysts at 538.com do what they do by collecting poll results and comparing them to election results to see how reliable they are.

 

[Derec]

But it's a plan of action for a Republican who becomes elected President. It's an extreme version of  Unitary executive theory

How do you know that?

I concede that that is a bad precedent to set. One should let right-wingers do that first.

LMAO. Spoken like a true partisan.

 

[Derec]

There are indeed those on both sides of the political spectrum who prefer authoritarianism. When Biden starts following their advice and says he respects those people and doesn’t respect the opinions of those who disagree with him then we’ll start talking.

I was replying not to an instance of Republicans doing this, but to lpetrich's opinion that Republicans will likely do this.
So I referred back to an opinion. By a lefty law professor.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Useful information for Newsom, the PTB have threatened to RFK RFK Jr.

Armed man posing as U.S. Marshal arrested at RFK Jr. campaign event

RFK Jr. did request Secret Service protection, and was denied.

well, he's not considered to be a "major candidate". It's a pretty simple calculation.

Obviously someone feels threatened by him.

This statement is just so whiny.

And it seems like RFK's security is quite sufficient at stopping some armed man from trying to harm him.

 

[TSwizzle]

Yeah, the mind is going;

Joe Biden repeated the same story twice within minutes at a private fundraising event in New York, sparking further concerns about his age. After briefly talking about his economic record he reflected on his decision to seek the presidency and 'talked about the events of Charlottesville' as the reason for his campaign, the report said. ''A few minutes later, he told the story again, nearly word for word,' the report went on.

Daily Mail

These are not the usual Sleepy Joe gaffes, this is a man's mental faculties on the decline. Physically he doesn't look that good either, shuffling about the stage like the old geezer he is, banging into flags, wandering off stage without shaking Brazil president's hand. It's only a matter of weeks before the jig is up and he is yanked from the candidacy.

 

[lpetrich]

But it's a plan of action for a Republican who becomes elected President. It's an extreme version of  Unitary executive theory

How do you know that?

By doing research instead of being a lazy whiner.

I concede that that is a bad precedent to set. One should let right-wingers do that first.

LMAO. Spoken like a true partisan.

It's only partisanship when it's on the other side, it seems.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Complacent nonsense.
 Project 2025

So somebody slapped together a website. It's not GOP itself, it's not any presidential campaign.

250 conservative organizations, i.e. top-down manager organizations that propagandize everything and have gazillions of followers, including the top dog, Heritage Foundation. This isn't "somebody slapped together a website." It's the Heritage Foundation. Here's their own commentary on it:

Project 2025

With the Biden administration half over and with the immediate dangers inherent to one-party rule in Washington behind us for now, it’s past time to lay the groundwork for a White House more friendly to the right. For decades, as the left has continued its march through America’s institutions...

www.heritage.org

It's nonsense to feign they are not overridingly the GOP and will not correspond to his campaign. That's is like pretending Roe v Wade wouldn't get overturned or pretending we didn't have to worry about Trump trying to stay in office. We all know where not taking things seriously got us.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Trump runs away with double-digit lead over Biden, new general election poll finds | Fox News

Biden is unpopular on age, border security and the economy

www.foxnews.com

 

[Rhea]

Not willing to click on a Fox news link.

Is that 10% reflective of 20$ vs 30%? Or is it 45% vs 55%? Is there a large “uncertain” or a large “other” that will tell more of a story?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Not willing to click on a Fox news link.

Is that 10% reflective of 20$ vs 30%? Or is it 45% vs 55%? Is there a large “uncertain” or a large “other” that will tell more of a story?

ABC/WashPo Poll. 51 to 42. Which I find very hard to believe. But at the moment, it seems to be the economy, which isn't as bad as it seems, but inflation is kind of new to many.

President Joe Biden's job approval rating is 19 points underwater, his ratings for handling the economy and immigration are at career lows. A record number of Americans say they've become worse off under his presidency, three-quarters say he's too old for another term and Donald Trump is looking better in retrospect -- all severe challenges for Biden in his reelection campaign ahead.

Forty-four percent of Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say they've gotten worse off financially under Biden's presidency, the most for any president in ABC/Post polls since 1986. Just 37% approve of his job performance, while 56% disapprove. Still fewer approve of Biden's performance on the economy, 30%.

Presidents since, what HW Bush has suffered mid-term with ratings. But this seems low for even those low standards. Prices are up, but are they up that much?

Is it as simple as the interest rates stopped another housing boom, and that portion of the economy is gone?

 

[Swammerdami]

Trump runs away with double-digit lead over Biden, new general election poll finds | Fox News

Biden is unpopular on age, border security and the economy

www.foxnews.com

Frightening. Other polls show the race neck-and-neck. And

Gary Langer, a public opinion researcher, pointed out in an ABC News analysis that question order could be a factor. The survey asked first about Biden and Trump’s performance, economy sentiment and various other issues such as the looming government shutdown, Ukraine aid and abortion, before questioning participants on their candidate preferences.

The Betfair prediction market is also a source of gloom. On Sept. 6, Trump was shown as 69% to be the GOP nominee, and 28% to win in November, behind Biden's 34.5%. Today, Trump is 70% and 33% with Biden falling to 30.5%. Other contenders have rearranged slightly. Newsom is still 3rd most likely to be POTUS-47; DeSantis and Vitek have fallen with RFK Jr. rising to 4th most likely..

Are there other prediction sites I should look at? I can't access predictit:

This website is using a security service to protect itself from online attacks. The action you just performed triggered the security solution. There are several actions that could trigger this block including submitting a certain word or phrase, a SQL command or malformed data.

.
AFAIK there was no SQL or malformed data. I get the message typing predictit.org into the Firefox address bar.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Prediction sites aren't worth a darn. It was Giuliani v Clinton in 2008.

The question is are the ratings bad enough in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania to turn the election back to Mango Unchained?

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Not willing to click on a Fox news link.

It's good to see what the crazies say once in a while. But yeah, double digits means 10 not 15, 20, 30. And the article contains caveats.

Is that 10% reflective of 20$ vs 30%? Or is it 45% vs 55%?

42 vs 52.

Is there a large “uncertain” or a large “other” that will tell more of a story?

3.5% margin of error.

I think, as I've said before, the economy is going to play a big role. It seems to be a big factor.

Here also is the caveat:

"The sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat," the Post wrote Sunday. "The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier."​

 

[Copernicus]

Or people are trying to send the message that they really don't want Biden to run for a second term. They would like to see someone else. That is not as true of the Republican base, most of whom want to express their outrage that Trump is being charged with crimes now, just as the election season starts rather than way back in 2020, when everyone also knew he was guilty as hell of all the crimes he is being charged with now, four years later. So there is probably a defiance factor playing a role there. If Trump and Biden really do end up facing each other in an election campaign, then it is possible that a lot of people will answer such surveys differently. At the moment, that choice is not being forced on them.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Or people are trying to send the message that they really don't want Biden to run for a second term. They would like to see someone else. That is not as true of the Republican base, most of whom want to express their outrage that Trump is being charged with crimes now, just as the election season starts rather than way back in 2020,

and yet they seem content with the idea that Biden can be impeached now, just as the election season starts, for activities performed back when he was Vice President.

 

[ZiprHead]

Or people are trying to send the message that they really don't want Biden to run for a second term. They would like to see someone else. That is not as true of the Republican base, most of whom want to express their outrage that Trump is being charged with crimes now, just as the election season starts rather than way back in 2020, when everyone also knew he was guilty as hell of all the crimes he is being charged with now, four years later. So there is probably a defiance factor playing a role there. If Trump and Biden really do end up facing each other in an election campaign, then it is possible that a lot of people will answer such surveys differently. At the moment, that choice is not being forced on them.

Or maybe younger Biden supporters don't have landlines and don't answer strange numbers on their cell phones.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Useful information for Newsom, the PTB have threatened to RFK RFK Jr.

Armed man posing as U.S. Marshal arrested at RFK Jr. campaign event

RFK Jr. did request Secret Service protection, and was denied.

well, he's not considered to be a "major candidate". It's a pretty simple calculation.

Obviously someone feels threatened by him.

This statement is just so whiny.

And it seems like RFK's security is quite sufficient at stopping some armed man from trying to harm him.

Actually it is important.

Democrats are keeping Newsom in the wings, just in case Biden isn't the candidate in the 2024 race. Even Democrats know better than to put forward Harris. Still, Newsom can't campaign right now because he's the reserve candidate. If he does get called, he will have to start his campaign from scratch.

The leading non-Biden in the race has already been campaigning, and while making few waves has already made enough that complete idiots are calling him a Q-anon supported Republican.

He is no threat to Biden, but he's a huge threat to Newsom. Even people who think RFK Jr. doesn't actually exist recognize he's a threat to Newsom.

 

[ZiprHead]

So Trumpy has a rally at a non-union plant to woo UAW members.

 

[lpetrich]

Obama’s auto task force head rips Biden for joining UAW picket line | The Hill

Steven Rattner, the head of former President Obama’s auto industry task force, called President Biden’s visit to Michigan and a United Auto Workers (UAW) picket line “outrageous” in a Wednesday interview.

“For him to be going on a picket line is outrageous,” Rattner, a former journalist who later worked in private equity, said in an interview with NBC News. “There’s no precedent for it. The tradition of the president is to stay neutral in these things.”

 

[lpetrich]

DeSantis super PAC targets Ramaswamy over mirroring Obama in speeches | The Hill

The video, released by Never Back Down PAC, plays clips of Ramaswamy against clips of Obama, a Democrat, highlighting similar lines under on-screen text reading “Vivek copies Obama.”

One clip includes Ramaswamy’s opening line during the first GOP primary debate in Milwaukee last month, when he asked, “Who the heck is this skinny guy with a funny last name and what the heck is he doing in the middle of this debate stage?”

Vivek Ramaswamy is a practicing Hindu who is trying to seem like a God-is-an-American evangelical Protestant, and Tulsi Gabbard has also been something like that.

Hinduism is, at least on the surface, polytheist, with numerous deities. But there are also Hindu monotheists, and they often believe that this multitude of deities is aspects of a single deity. Since Hindu deities come in both sexes, Hindu monotheists thus believe in a transgender deity.

Also, Hindus like depicting their deities with many arms, as symbolic of their multiple capabilities.

So VR believes in a transgender multi-armed deity, unlike the Xian God, who is male and has only two arms.