The Race For 2024

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yeah, the results are in that Brandon's polling is in the toilet, two thirds of his own party think he's too old.

Pew: Phone polling in crisis again

The Pew Research Center reports that the response rate for its phone polls last year fell to just 6 percent.

www.politico.com

The percentage of Americans willing to participate in telephone polls has hit a new low, according to a new report, raising doubts about the continued viability of the phone surveys that have traditionally dominated politics and elections, both in the media and in campaigns.

The Pew Research Center reported Wednesday that the response rate for its phone polls last year fell to just 6 percent — meaning pollsters could only complete interviews with 6 percent of the households in their samples. It continues the long-term decline in response rates, which had leveled off earlier this decade.

In releasing the data, Pew is also announcing that it will move “the lion’s share” of its tracking of political and social trends — considered by many to be the gold-standard in public-opinion research — to its online platform, part of a broader trend away from phone polling and toward the internet.

Pew’s data suggest that decline is underway again, with response rates slipping to 7 percent in 2017 and 6 percent in 2018. What’s to blame for the recent slippage? Kennedy says it’s harder to get people to complete polls over cell phones because they are getting more calls they don’t want, which makes them less likely to talk to pollsters.

“It’s our sense that that exponential increase in robocalls, spoofing of incoming calls, pretending they’re a local number, has really changed the environment in using a cell phone,” said Kennedy.

Polling is becoming more and more useless every day.

Oddly, the polls weren't wrong in 2020 or 2022.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Sen. Tim Scott calls his girlfriend a 'lovely Christian girl' at Iowa campaign stop - USA Today

And she's Canadian.

Seems to be playing the Dan Quayle "I'm a Christian" angle hard.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Jesus says, "Sell all you have and give to the poor". Amazing how many conservative politicians loudly claim to be Christian, but refuse to follow the commands of Jesus.

 

[Elixir]

Amazing how many conservative politicians loudly claim to be Christian, but refuse to follow the commands of Jesus.

Imagine them all at The Pearly Gates pleading “I was just doing what The President told me to!” and St Peter is all like,”OMFG! Y’all can go to hell!”

 

[Swammerdami]

I and many others here in Thailand don't even answer our phone if it's not mapped to a name.

Pew’s data suggest that decline is underway again, with response rates slipping to 7 percent in 2017 and 6 percent in 2018. What’s to blame for the recent slippage? Kennedy says it’s harder to get people to complete polls over cell phones because they are getting more calls they don’t want, which makes them less likely to talk to pollsters.

“It’s our sense that that exponential increase in robocalls, spoofing of incoming calls, pretending they’re a local number, has really changed the environment in using a cell phone,” said Kennedy.

Polling is becoming more and more useless every day.

More reason to expect extremists and snake-oil artists to dominate debate, even more than they do already.

This era of social and political dysfunction is not going to end well.

 

[Elixir]

This era of social and political dysfunction is not going to end well.

Look at the bright side; at least it ends.

 

[jab]

The vast majority of those the 14th was used against were not adjudicated for anything.

Could be. I am not a Civil War buff.
Nevertheless, do you really think this 14th Amendment gambit will work? Or do you realize it's just a lot of hopium?

Hopium--it has a snowball's chance in Hell.

 

[Derec]

Newsom 2024 when Biden drops out, c'mon man!!

I really do think that's his strategy. If Biden doesn't drop out, he is still positioning himself for 2028. If he does drop out soon, it will still be too late to start a campaign from scratch and he will be the favorite. Win win.

 

[Derec]

Complacent nonsense.
 Project 2025

So somebody slapped together a website. It's not GOP itself, it's not any presidential campaign.

If Congress objects, they will issue executive orders.

How is that different from Biden largely governing by executive order? Like both of his student loan forgiveness plans (i.e. giveaways to the better off) or his new plan to implement a diet version of AOC's Civilian Climate Corps. Or the eviction moratorium, which he extended knowing it was illegal.
Biden’s novel evictions defense: Maybe it’s illegal, but it’s worth it

If the courts object, then they will likely ignore the courts unless they can get the Supreme Court to rubber-stamp everything that they do.

Ahem.
Liberal profs urge Biden to defy ‘mistaken’ rulings by ‘MAGA’ Supreme Court justices

 

[Derec]

DeSantis continues his DeCline: now at 12.7%, only a little bit more than Vivek Ramaswamy (7.2%), Nikki Haley (5.7%), and Mike Pence (4.5%). Further down is Chris Christie (2.8%), and Tim Scott (2.5%), with the other ones even less. Trump is far ahead at 43.9%.

He is 4th in a new NH poll. And NH primary is going to be in late January, no longer far away.
InsiderAdvantage Survey NH GOP Primary: Trump Leads by 28 Points; Haley and Christie in Low Double Digits; Towery to Appear on Fox News Ingraham Angle Tonight (Tabs this Evening).

VR is 5th.

 

[TSwizzle]

Newsom 2024 when Biden drops out, c'mon man!!

I really do think that's his strategy. If Biden doesn't drop out, he is still positioning himself for 2028. If he does drop out soon, it will still be too late to start a campaign from scratch and he will be the favorite. Win win.

There is no secret about Newsom's intent on running in 2028 as there is no reason for secrecy about that. He has to rally around Biden for 2024 of course but he has been raising his profile the past year. He can barely disguise his hopes that Biden takes a tumble and has to drop out the race.

 

[Shadowy Man]

If the courts object, then they will likely ignore the courts unless they can get the Supreme Court to rubber-stamp everything that they do.

Ahem.
Liberal profs urge Biden to defy ‘mistaken’ rulings by ‘MAGA’ Supreme Court justices

There are indeed those on both sides of the political spectrum who prefer authoritarianism. When Biden starts following their advice and says he respects those people and doesn’t respect the opinions of those who disagree with him then we’ll start talking.

 

[Tigers!]

Polling is becoming more and more useless every day.

A former Australian PM, Malcolm Fraser, used to say that the only poll that counts is the one on the day i.e. election day.

 

[Tigers!]

Asking a worthwhile and ideally unbiased (but if not, then at least biased in fairly predictable ways that can be compensated for) sample of the population, what their intentions are, is still a perfectly valid approach. Just one that nobody is currently able to do, because modern systems don't allow it to be done as easily as it was when everyone had (only) a landline, tended to trust anyone who called them via it, and tended to answer it when it rang despite not having any indication of who might be calling.

The mid twentieth century ain't coming back; And internet communication is too anonymous for pollsters - they can't even know whether the respondents are in the country they're trying to poll, much less start assigning weight to likely biases. Shit, it's difficult to tell real "probable voters" from Russian or Chinese bot-farms which are not even humans, and are explicitly designed to mess up the results.

All the more reason to eschew electronic polling or voting and concentrate on the older, albeit slower, methods.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Useful information for Newsom, the PTB have threatened to RFK RFK Jr.

Armed man posing as U.S. Marshal arrested at RFK Jr. campaign event

RFK Jr. did request Secret Service protection, and was denied.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Useful information for Newsom, the PTB have threatened to RFK RFK Jr.

Armed man posing as U.S. Marshal arrested at RFK Jr. campaign event

RFK Jr. did request Secret Service protection, and was denied.

well, he's not considered to be a "major candidate". It's a pretty simple calculation.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Useful information for Newsom, the PTB have threatened to RFK RFK Jr.

Armed man posing as U.S. Marshal arrested at RFK Jr. campaign event

RFK Jr. did request Secret Service protection, and was denied.

well, he's not considered to be a "major candidate". It's a pretty simple calculation.

Obviously someone feels threatened by him.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Asking a worthwhile and ideally unbiased (but if not, then at least biased in fairly predictable ways that can be compensated for) sample of the population, what their intentions are, is still a perfectly valid approach. Just one that nobody is currently able to do, because modern systems don't allow it to be done as easily as it was when everyone had (only) a landline, tended to trust anyone who called them via it, and tended to answer it when it rang despite not having any indication of who might be calling.

The mid twentieth century ain't coming back; And internet communication is too anonymous for pollsters - they can't even know whether the respondents are in the country they're trying to poll, much less start assigning weight to likely biases. Shit, it's difficult to tell real "probable voters" from Russian or Chinese bot-farms which are not even humans, and are explicitly designed to mess up the results.

All the more reason to eschew electronic polling or voting and concentrate on the older, albeit slower, methods.

His point doesn't apply to voting, only to polling.

 

[bilby]

Useful information for Newsom, the PTB have threatened to RFK RFK Jr.

Armed man posing as U.S. Marshal arrested at RFK Jr. campaign event

RFK Jr. did request Secret Service protection, and was denied.

well, he's not considered to be a "major candidate". It's a pretty simple calculation.

Obviously someone feels threatened by him.

You're not famous unless somebody you have never met wants to kill you.

The world is full of nutters, and RFK moves in particularly nutter-dense circles. Lots of people probably feel threatened by him; Lots of people probably want to murder him. That doesn't entitle him to SS protection; Simply being threatened isn't a sufficient criterion. Even being credibly threatened isn't a criterion (though credible threats might be sufficient to justify police protection from local police departments).

There are publicly available criteria for political candidates to qualify for SS protection, and RFK doesn't currently meet those criteria, so he will need to go to a different law enforcement agency if he believes that he needs and is entitled to publicly funded security. Or he can pay for his own security.

 

[lpetrich]

Complacent nonsense.
 Project 2025

So somebody slapped together a website. It's not GOP itself, it's not any presidential campaign.

But it's a plan of action for a Republican who becomes elected President. It's an extreme version of  Unitary executive theory

If the courts object, then they will likely ignore the courts unless they can get the Supreme Court to rubber-stamp everything that they do.

Ahem.
Liberal profs urge Biden to defy ‘mistaken’ rulings by ‘MAGA’ Supreme Court justices

I concede that that is a bad precedent to set. One should let right-wingers do that first.