The Race For 2024

[ZiprHead]

I am more concerned for his 2nd term though. He will be 86 in January 2029, the end of his second term - if he makes it that far.

Life expectancy at 82 for men is 7.32 years. Most 82 year olds make it to 86; Wealthy 82 year olds with access to the highest level of healthcare, with a personal medical team on permanent standby, and with a twenty-four hour close personal protection team who plan all travel and defend against any external risks, are very unlikely to die before making it that far.

It's not like Mr Biden is going to have a fall in his kitchen, and not be found until his neighbours complain about the smell.

He doesn't have most of the risks of death that cause that 7.32 years figure to be as low as it is, for the average 82 year old American man.

Most of the causes of death at that age are medical and not preventable.

But are treatable. Especially for a guy that has a full trauma center just down the hall from his residence.

 

[southernhybrid]

You are over reacting to what one person said about some billionaires. I don't think Buffet is that bad, but I never said he was virtuous and that has nothing to do with the point of the man's post. I just don't think he's necessarily as evil as you seem to think he is, seemingly just because he has a lot of money.

I have offered no opinion whatsoever about him, and certainly not suggested that he is evil.

I have only commented on the ridiculousness of citing the fact that some people were billionaires, in the context of claiming that this is evidence against their having cognitive decline.

Bizarrely, your strident defence of billionaires against an imagined slur is further evidence that I am correct - people really do think that billionaire status is somehow worthy of intense respect.

You keep misunderstanding what I'm saying. Listen to me. I am not defending billionaires. I don't give a shit about billionaires. Plus, I never said you personally thought that billionaires were evil, so again, you're making an untrue claim. I simply mentioned that Murdoch might be what is referred to as an evil genius, because you kept giving me the impression that you think that billionaires aren't that smart. I never said that you thought they were evil, but I certainly got the impression that you thought they are all greedy and immoral, based on a few of your posts. Most of them very well may be. I was making the point that someone can be very smart and very immoral. I was thinking of Koch and Murdoch. I never said any of them were virtuous. I only mentioned that Buffett gives most of his money away and that historically, he has supported higher taxes for people like himself, and he claims to be a Democrat. That doesn't mean I think he's virtuous. I have no idea how he lives his life on a daily basis, so I have no basis to judge him.

I also disagree with your claim about Americans and billionaires. Most of us don't care or don't even know who most of them are. Maybe the pundits on CNBC worship them, since those pundits usually seem obsessed with those who have the most wealth, but most of us couldn't give a shit about them. Buffet is probably just very well known because he's been around for so long and financial pundits give him a lot of attention. Please stop making up shit and generalizations about Americans and me. I realize that is can be difficult to understand what another posted means, but you have made several untrue assumptions about me. If it appears as if I've made any about you, I apologize. I like to discuss, not attack and make up things about others. I have never cared about money, but I am. thankful that we have enough to live comfortably. Money has never, ever been important to me.

I don't know or care why the man who wrote the comment happened to mention that 3 of them were billionaires. Why do you care so much? He's just one man out of millions and for all we know, the billionaire thing may have just crossed his mind while he was thinking of older adults who aren't showing signs of senility. I don't understand why you keep bringing it up. It's trivial and not related to the point that I was making or the topic of this thread.

If you want to discuss billionaires and whether they are smart, immoral, popular etc. please start a new thread. I don't pay attention to them. I'm not interested in them but I would like to see them give back more in taxes, since they are benefactors of our infrastructure and they get a lot of tax breaks, but that's not the topic of this thread. I've just seen Buffett interviewed a couple of times on CNBC, so he came to mind, after you implied that billionaires aren't that smart.t Nobody said they were. For all I know, Buffet might not be as charitable as he claims, but the point was that he's not senile, not that he's virtuous or or brilliant. He's still in charge of his company, as far as I know, and he's in his 90s. That was the man's point. That was my point as well.

Can we please move on and get back on topic? Like for example, I had a patient who was 106, who seemed to be cognitively intact. Until the age of about 103, he owned and managed his own apartment complexes in New York City, according to his daughter. He moved in with her after breaking a hip, but he recovered quickly. No, I don't think he was fit to be president at 106, but again the point is that plenty of people well past their 80s remain cognitively stable for many years to come, regardless of their social status or wealth.

 

[Derec]

The President's name is Biden.

And his nickname is Brandon. It started with a reporter trying to pretend NASCAR spectators chanting "Fuck go Biden!" were really saying "Let's go Brandon!" because she was interviewing driver Brandon Brown.
But quickly, Democrats embraced the moniker, and even built up on it.

I think he should legally change his middle name. I mean, "Robinette"? Seriously?

'If you're still getting it wrong three years after his election, perhaps it's you we should be concerned about suffering age related cognitive decline.

Or maybe you are not up to date on all the two year old dank memes living at the end of the world ...

 

[Derec]

I am more concerned for his 2nd term though. He will be 86 in January 2029, the end of his second term - if he makes it that far.

Life expectancy at 82 for men is 7.32 years. Most 82 year olds make it to 86;

6.77 in the version of the table I found, but whatever. And for 62 year olds it's 19.03 and it's 12.30 even for a 72 year old. I wasn't saying that p(Biden dying in office)>0.5. But it is far higher than for a younger candidate, all things being equal. Since you are fond of the actuarial life table, if we add up death probabilities for ages 82-85, I get p=0.376. More than one in three.
Let's cut that in half because Biden is spry for his age and has access to high quality healthcare around the clock, and it's still substantial p=0.188. Almost one in five.
It's not just dying though. Chances of major adverse health events also increase with age, and something like a major heart attack or a stroke would put the president out of commission, possibly permanently, even if he ends up surviving it. Ariel Sharon lived, if you can call it that, for six more years after suffering his debilitating stroke in 2006.

Wealthy 82 year olds with access to the highest level of healthcare, with a personal medical team on permanent standby, and with a twenty-four hour close personal protection team who plan all travel and defend against any external risks, are very unlikely to die before making it that far.

Sure. And all things being equal, an 82 year old has a much higher chances of not making it through a term than a 62 year old or even a 72 year old. Note that you only mentioned things that positively affect lifespan. But presidenting is also an extremely stressful job. Far cry from the lifestyle of an average man of his age, for whom the most stressful event of a month might be a big one getting away.

 

[Copernicus]

The President's name is Biden.

And his nickname is Brandon. It started with a reporter trying to pretend NASCAR spectators chanting "Fuck go Biden!" were really saying "Let's go Brandon!" because she was interviewing driver Brandon Brown.
But quickly, Democrats embraced the moniker, and even built up on it.

I think he should legally change his middle name. I mean, "Robinette"? Seriously?

'If you're still getting it wrong three years after his election, perhaps it's you we should be concerned about suffering age related cognitive decline.

Or maybe you are not up to date on all the two year old dank memes living at the end of the world ...

And the senile old Brandon does it again, showing leadership and getting things done while Republicans whine about his incompetence in the background:

Biden spoke with Qatari leaders in attempt to resolve delay in hostage exchange​

Within the last hour, White House officials were informed by Qatari officials that the issue had been resolved, and that the Red Cross was moving to retrieve the hostages set to be released today.

 

[bilby]

Obviously there's always a chance that any President could die or become incapacitated during their term.

That's not much of a problem though, because there's a vice-predident right there on the ballot, so everyone knows who the backup president will be in such cases (and gets to decide whether to support those two candidates).

And in this case, the probability of such an event isn't detectably different between the two front-runners, so it's of zero relevance.

I would suggest that in either case, Biden or Trump, having been elected in 2024, has a FAR greater chance of dying in office by assassination, than by anything age related.

 

[lpetrich]

Actuarial Life Table at the US Social Security Administration

I calculated the cumulative probability of dying during the next year's campaign and for each year of the Presidency.

• Vivek Ramaswamy - 38 - {0.003, 0.006, 0.01, 0.013, 0.017, 0.02, 0.024, 0.028, 0.032}
• Ron DeSantis - 45 - {0.004, 0.009, 0.013, 0.018, 0.024, 0.03, 0.036, 0.043, 0.05}
• Nikki Haley - 51 - {0.004, 0.008, 0.012, 0.017, 0.022, 0.028, 0.034, 0.041, 0.048}
• Dean Phillips - 54 - {0.008, 0.017, 0.027, 0.038, 0.049, 0.061, 0.073, 0.087, 0.101}
• Kamala Harris - 59 - {0.007, 0.015, 0.024, 0.033, 0.042, 0.052, 0.063, 0.074, 0.086}
• Chris Christie - 61 - {0.015, 0.03, 0.046, 0.063, 0.081, 0.1, 0.119, 0.139, 0.16}
• Doug Burgum - 67 - {0.021, 0.044, 0.067, 0.091, 0.117, 0.144, 0.172, 0.203, 0.235}
• RFK Jr - 69 - {0.024, 0.05, 0.077, 0.105, 0.134, 0.166, 0.2, 0.236, 0.274}
• Cornel West - 70 - {0.026, 0.054, 0.082, 0.113, 0.146, 0.18, 0.217, 0.255, 0.296}
• Marianne Williamson - 71 - {0.018, 0.038, 0.06, 0.083, 0.109, 0.136, 0.165, 0.197, 0.231}
• Asa Hutchinson - 72 - {0.03, 0.063, 0.097, 0.134, 0.173, 0.213, 0.256, 0.3, 0.346}
• Jill Stein - 73 - {0.022, 0.047, 0.073, 0.102, 0.132, 0.165, 0.2, 0.238, 0.278}
• Donald Trump - 77 - {0.049, 0.101, 0.154, 0.21, 0.267}
• Joe Biden - 81 - {0.072, 0.146, 0.222, 0.298, 0.375}

 

[Derec]

Actuarial Life Table at the US Social Security Administration

I calculated the cumulative probability of dying during the next year's campaign and for each year of the Presidency.

I'd add a year to those, i.e. use the age when they would take office and not their present age. Joe Biden should start with 82 and so on.

But thanks for doing the legwork - I only calculated it for Biden.

 

[Politesse]

I've been reading interviews with several of the key candidates aside from the two old duffers in front, in part so it won't be a surprise when they announce VPs.

It's a familiar American truism (and tragedy) that every "left leaning" candidate stops leaning long before they make it to the Left, whereas the rightwing candidates have no such compunctions. Still true.

 

[Derec]

Obviously there's always a chance that any President could die or become incapacitated during their term.

There is "a chance" of almost anything happening. But there is a big difference in chances based on age.
For a young gun like Vivek the difference in chances of dying (based on actuarial life table) to Biden is ~10x. For candidates in their 50s it's still 3-4x.

That's not much of a problem though, because there's a vice-predident right there on the ballot, so everyone knows who the backup president will be in such cases (and gets to decide whether to support those two candidates).

Yes, the choice of running mate matters far more for older candidates. Unfortunately for Biden, Kamala is not particularly popular. In 2020 she ran a dismal campaign. She was a good candidate on paper, but on tarmac it crashed worse than Henry Flintoff's Morgan. From idiotic attacks on Biden over 70s forced busing policies to campaign management, it was a disaster. The only reason she was chosen were the 2020 #BLM riots frankly.

And in this case, the probability of such an event isn't detectably different between the two front-runners, so it's of zero relevance.

Yeah, I mentioned that before. Further up in this thread I believe. If Biden faces Trump in the general, the age issue will be diffused to a large extent (at least as far as winning the election goes) since it will be two ancients facing each other.

I would suggest that in either case, Biden or Trump, having been elected in 2024, has a FAR greater chance of dying in office by assassination, than by anything age related.

I disagree. They do not have 1/5 chance of dying by assassination. That's preposterous.

 

[Derec]

It's a familiar American truism (and tragedy) that every "left leaning" candidate stops leaning long before they make it to the Left,

Biden ran as a moderate, but has moved to the Left, especially on economy.
Him not caving to the islamophilic Left on Israel vs. Hamas is a welcome change from earlier in his presidency frankly.

 

[Derec]

And the senile old Brandon does it again, showing leadership and getting things done while Republicans whine about his incompetence in the background:

Biden spoke with Qatari leaders in attempt to resolve delay in hostage exchange​

Good for him - although I have some concerns about the deal, namely that too many Palestinian terrorists are being released from prison for every innocent Israeli hostage.

However, what does that have to do with what I wrote? Did you reply to the wrong post? My post was about how "Brandon" as a nickname for Biden has been a thing for over two years now. Contrary to what bilby thought, it was not a mistake by TSwizzle.

 

[Derec]

Or, what's the Atlanta equivalent of 5th Avenue?

One of Peachtree Streets, I reckon.

 

[Derec]

That's part of the "working" bit. Not everyone can just shoot their opponents and get away with it.

Worked for Aaron Burr. Maybe we should bring dueling back. At least among politicians.

 

[Derec]

Thank goodness someone gets it

I was wondering whether that was deliberate ...

It seems a lot of people in the Democratic Party are not as confident. But time will tell.

Against Trump the age issue is neutralized. They are both very old. And Biden is probably healthier of the two, even if Trump is a bit younger.

Maybe if he can ditch Harris and pick a better VP it would be better?

It would be difficult politically. At least if he doesn't replace her with another black(ish) woman.
Identity politics is strong in the contemporary Democratic Party. So much so that it eclipses everything else.

 

[Derec]

Biden fills his administration with competent folks who are loyal to the USA.

Overall, the Biden cabinet is better than the Trump cabinet.
However, Biden disappointed too. Take Energy. Obama's two secretaries were both physicists with background in energy technology and policy. Biden appointed a career politician with degrees in political science, French and law, and zero energy experience. I would be surprised she if she understand the difference between energy and power or can name at least two of the laws of thermodynamics. But she has the politically correct set of genitals, and identity politics, identity politics über alles, über alles in der Welt ...

 

[Copernicus]

And the senile old Brandon does it again, showing leadership and getting things done while Republicans whine about his incompetence in the background:

Biden spoke with Qatari leaders in attempt to resolve delay in hostage exchange​

Good for him - although I have some concerns about the deal, namely that too many Palestinian terrorists are being released from prison for every innocent Israeli hostage.
View attachment 44769

Too bad you weren't on the negotiating team. Actually, Dwaiat didn't succeed in killing anyone. She only moderately wounded one of the men with her knife and attempted to stab the other. The man she wounded initially then shot her in self-defense. She was only a teenager back then. Perhaps she is no longer considered such a threat after 8 years in an Israeli prison. She's had time to reconsider the wisdom of her action.

However, what does that have to do with what I wrote? Did you reply to the wrong post? My post was about how "Brandon" as a nickname for Biden has been a thing for over two years now. Contrary to what bilby thought, it was not a mistake by TSwizzle.

Bilby knew perfectly well that TSwizzle got the name wrong deliberately. He was only making a snarky comment about TSwizzle's repeated use of a worn-out joke after three years.

 

[lpetrich]

Actuarial Life Table at the US Social Security Administration

I calculated the cumulative probability of dying during the next year's campaign and for each year of the Presidency.

I'd add a year to those, i.e. use the age when they would take office and not their present age. Joe Biden should start with 82 and so on.

I did the calculation not only for each year of the Presidency but also for the upcoming year, the year of campaigning for that position.

 

[bilby]

Contrary to what bilby thought, it was not a mistake by TSwizzle.

Contrary to what you think, I did not think that it was.

 

[lpetrich]

I grouped the candidates' death probabilities by term, with the one-member list being for 2024.

• Vivek Ramaswamy M 38 {0.003} {0.006, 0.01, 0.013, 0.017} {0.02, 0.024, 0.028, 0.032}
• Ron DeSantis M 45 {0.004} {0.009, 0.013, 0.018, 0.024} {0.03, 0.036, 0.043, 0.05}
• Nikki Haley F 51 {0.004} {0.008, 0.012, 0.017, 0.022} {0.028, 0.034, 0.041, 0.048}
• Dean Phillips M 54 {0.008} {0.017, 0.027, 0.038, 0.049} {0.061, 0.073, 0.087, 0.101}
• Kamala Harris F 59 {0.007} {0.015, 0.024, 0.033, 0.042} {0.052, 0.063, 0.074, 0.086}
• Chris Christie M 61 {0.015} {0.03, 0.046, 0.063, 0.081} {0.1, 0.119, 0.139, 0.16}
• Doug Burgum M 67 {0.021} {0.044, 0.067, 0.091, 0.117} {0.144, 0.172, 0.203, 0.235}
• RFK Jr M 69 {0.024} {0.05, 0.077, 0.105, 0.134} {0.166, 0.2, 0.236, 0.274}
• Cornel West M 70 {0.026} {0.054, 0.082, 0.113, 0.146} {0.18, 0.217, 0.255, 0.296}
• Marianne Williamson F 71 {0.018} {0.038, 0.06, 0.083, 0.109} {0.136, 0.165, 0.197, 0.231}
• Asa Hutchinson M 72 {0.03} {0.063, 0.097, 0.134, 0.173} {0.213, 0.256, 0.3, 0.346}
• Jill Stein F 73 {0.022} {0.047, 0.073, 0.102, 0.132} {0.165, 0.2, 0.238, 0.278}
• Donald Trump M 77 {0.049} {0.101, 0.154, 0.21, 0.267} {0.325, 0.385, 0.446, 0.506}
• Joe Biden M 81 {0.072} {0.146, 0.222, 0.298, 0.375} {0.45, 0.524, 0.595, 0.661}