The Race For 2024

[TomC]

All the more reason to draft her!

Am I wrong that she's the Democrat with best chances in 19½ months? I like Biden OK, but he'll be 82 years old at the next Inauguration.

Draft is a strong word.
But yeah. What little I know about her makes her look like a better Dem candidate than anyone else that comes to mind.
Tom

 

[Politesse]

Reminds me of "Draft Wesley Clark" back in the day.

 

[TomC]

Reminds me of "Draft Wesley Clark" back in the day.

Am I too old or too young to have a clue what that means?
Tom

 

[Copernicus]

Reminds me of "Draft Wesley Clark" back in the day.

Am I too old or too young to have a clue what that means?
Tomorrow

Too young, but I don't share Poli's sense that the "draft Whitmer" movement is reminiscent of it. He would have been a candidate with a military record, so his main appeal was as a Democrat that could appeal to moderate conservative voters.

 

[TomC]

Too young, but I don't share Poli's sense that the "draft Whitmer" movement is reminiscent of it.

I didn't remember this much. Not because I'm too young, though. Because I'm too old.

I had to Google it.

By 2004 my bipartisanship was dropping like a rock. I was still looking closely at individual candidates for nearly all offices.

But not POTUS, I'd have voted for anyone before I would have voted for Bush II. The Democrats could have nominated Pink for the Oval Office and I'd have voted for her.
Tom

 

[Politesse]

Reminds me of "Draft Wesley Clark" back in the day.

Am I too old or too young to have a clue what that means?
Tomorrow

Too young, but I don't share Poli's sense that the "draft Whitmer" movement is reminiscent of it. He would have been a candidate with a military record, so his main appeal was as a Democrat that could appeal to moderate conservative voters

Not so much in term of the candidate themselves, as the idea of "drafting" a less-than-enthusiastic candidate to run, as an expression of popular frustration with the otherwise available all too familiar selection of would-be dictator vs boring policy wonk.

 

[Copernicus]

Reminds me of "Draft Wesley Clark" back in the day.

Am I too old or too young to have a clue what that means?
Tomorrow

Too young, but I don't share Poli's sense that the "draft Whitmer" movement is reminiscent of it. He would have been a candidate with a military record, so his main appeal was as a Democrat that could appeal to moderate conservative voters

Not so much in term of the candidate themselves, as the idea of "drafting" a less-than-enthusiastic candidate to run, as an expression of popular frustration with the otherwise available all too familiar selection of would-be dictator vs boring policy wonk.

It's hard to know what is really in her mind, but she is hoping to get that pro-union bill through the legislature. Even hinting that she was interested in the 2024 nomination would pretty much suck the air out of that effort as far as the news media is concerned. Suddenly she would be the target of more Republican attacks and forced to answer all sorts of questions about issues that could damage her chances. Right now, her best bet is to wait until Biden gives some definitive signal that he is releasing the nomination from his clutches, and I don't see him doing that in the near future.

 

[Tigers!]

Reminds me of "Draft Wesley Clark" back in the day.

Am I too old or too young to have a clue what that means?
Tomorrow

Too young, but I don't share Poli's sense that the "draft Whitmer" movement is reminiscent of it. He would have been a candidate with a military record, so his main appeal was as a Democrat that could appeal to moderate conservative voters

Not so much in term of the candidate themselves, as the idea of "drafting" a less-than-enthusiastic candidate to run, as an expression of popular frustration with the otherwise available all too familiar selection of would-be dictator vs boring policy wonk.

And if some one was "drafted" you would hope they had the nerve of a Sherman to say get stuffed. (Sherman said it far more politely)

 

[Swammerdami]

Of course we want an enthusiastic candidate. "Drafting" her is a way to increase enthusiasm all around. Sure, she won't announce for many months, but let's get the grass-roots whispering!

Remember 2016? The Dems trotted out Hickenlooper and other Governors but none impressed. Half a dozen Senators joined the fray -- Kamala wasn't even the best of this group -- but all but the leftists were boring. I liked Elizabeth Warren but most voters don't. Finally-- in an admission of total desperation -- Bloomberg himself joined the stage. I was calling for "Draft Biden" -- the one guy who'd be almost a shoo-in for November -- but as usual nobody listened to me.

But at that time, Joe Biden was a sprightly lad of just 73; he's older now. And nobody from that stage seven years ago appeals at all.

Governors have more gravitas than Senators, especially in this Era of the Farcical Congress. A Rust State Governor would appeal to the masses more than one from an "over-woke Cosmopolitan coastal" state.

Any suggestions as good as Gretchen?

 

[lpetrich]

Marianne Williamson’s ‘abusive’ treatment of 2020 campaign staff, revealed - POLITICO - "The self-help guru, who is running for president again, was emotionally and verbally abusive to staff, according to interviews with former employees."

The best-selling author Marianne Williamson has built a career preaching love and forgiveness. It is the cornerstone of her second Democratic campaign for president which she launched on March 4.

But those who have worked with Williamson as she has moved into the political realm say her public persona is at odds with her private behavior.

Then mentioning interviews with 12 former employees.

Those interviewed say the best-selling author and spiritual adviser subjected her employees to unpredictable, explosive episodes of anger. They said Williamson could be cruel and demeaning to her staff and that her behavior went far beyond the typical stress of a grueling presidential cycle.

“It would be foaming, spitting, uncontrollable rage,” said a former staffer, who, like most people that spoke with POLITICO, was granted anonymity because of their concern about being sued for breaking non-disclosure agreements. “It was traumatic. And the experience, in the end, was terrifying.”

Williamson would throw her phone at staffers, according to three of those former staffers. Her outbursts could be so loud that two former aides recounted at least four occasions when hotel staff knocked on her door to check on the situation. In one instance, Williamson got so angry about the logistics of a campaign trip to South Carolina that she felt was poorly planned that she pounded a car door until her hand started to swell, according to four former staffers. Ultimately, she had to go to an urgent care facility, they said. All 12 former staffers interviewed recalled instances where Williamson would scream at people until they started to cry.

 

[lpetrich]

A former campaign director for New Hampshire:

“Those reports of Ms. Williamson’s behavior are consistent with my observations, consistent with contemporaneous discussions I had about her conduct with staff members, and entirely consistent with my own personal experience with her behavior on multiple occasions,” he said.

For her part, MW calls such claims “slanderous” and “categorically untrue.”

Former staffers interviewed noted that tough boss criticisms tend to unfairly be lobbed at female leaders. But they also stressed that Williamson’s behavior was beyond the boundaries of acceptable regardless of her gender.

...
Those former aides said Williamson’s behavior was hard to predict. She berated staffers for seemingly inconsequential things, like if they booked a hotel room that had a walk-in shower and not a bathtub, they said. She would tell her staff to cancel an event, only to change her mind a day later and accuse them of trying to undermine her campaign. She obsessed over the physical appearance of others and ridiculed staffers for being overweight, according to four former aides. Williamson said she never “mocked anyone for their weight.”

“She would get caught in these vicious emotional loops where she would yell and scream hysterically,” said a second former staffer. “This was day after day after day. It wasn’t that she was having a bad day or moment. It was just boom, boom, boom — and often for no legitimate reason.”

In her 2020 run, she went through two campaign managers and multiple state directors, field organizers, and volunteers. One of the resigners called her “belittling, abusive, dehumanizing and unacceptable,” and added “I cannot in good faith subject any future campaign hires to this kind of vitriol. For 30 years I have had zero-tolerance for bullying in the workplace, and that has to include the principle.” MW responded “I did go out on a limb for you, but more importantly I had no idea that you would’ve seen me that way… Hopefully I will learn from what you have said, and hopefully you will not say such things to others.”

 

[lpetrich]

Williamson feared that her staff would go behind her back and talk to reporters about her behavior, according to six former staffers, who said she required campaign employees to sign nondisclosure agreements and made clear that they would be strictly enforced.

...
Campaign staff had conversations among themselves about how to approach Williamson about seeking help for her behavior. But most said they thought it would be an uphill battle given Williamson’s track record of skepticism surrounding mental health and antidepressants. Many said they felt like there was no way to talk to Williamson about such sensitive topics without opening themselves up to her verbal attacks.

There were similar stories about her some 30 years ago, when she started becoming famous as a spiritual guru.

A 1992 People Magazine story profiling Williamson said she had a “temper and unchecked ego, as well as a cruelly abrasive management style” and quoted a former associate who called Williamson “a tyrant.” A Los Angeles Times story published that same year reported that people who had worked with Williamson described her as having “an explosive temper that erupts indiscriminately.”

 

[Swammerdami]

It may be much too early to bother, but to see if others were thinking of Gretchen, I checked the Presidential Election odds at Betfair.

Trump is 51% to be the GOP nominee, but would then be heavy underdog against Biden. DeSantis, while less likely to be nominated, would be heaviy favored against Biden. Less likely GOP nominees are, in order, Haley, Youngkin, Pence, Scott.

Sadly, Betfair shows the Ds as 80% to win the popular vote in November 2024, but only 44% to win the electoral vote. (This is due to the huge "waste" of D votes in NY and Calif rather than any deliberate gerrymandering.)

After Biden (68%), possible D nominees in order of likelihood are Harris, Newsome, M. Obama, Buttigieg, H. Clinton, followed by Whitmer in 7th place with almost a 2% chance to be nominee.

 

[Elixir]

“The Race for 2024”

 

[ZiprHead]

DeSantis' policies are controversial even among his supporters. They might come back to bite him, even in a primary

Supporters of Gov. Ron DeSantis were less inclined to vote for him after learning about his policies, a recent YouGov poll shows.

www.businessinsider.com

The YouGov survey was conducted between March 16-20 with 1,582 respondents. YouGov first asked if the respondents would vote for the Florida governor if he received the Republican presidential nomination. Diving into the poll's results, 40% of all respondents — over 620 respondents — said they "definitely" or "might" vote for DeSantis.

The pollster then asked respondents about eight of the policies that DeSantis has championed as governor, but didn't note the relation to DeSantis.

More respondents opposed seven of eight of DeSantis' policies than favored them:

• Banning abortions after six weeks of pregnancy (34% favored, 50% opposed)
• Banning public colleges and universities from funding campus activities or programs that promote diversity,
  equity and inclusion (32% favored, 48% opposed)
• Allowing people to carry a concealed firearm without a license or safety training (22% favored, 66% opposed)
• Banning majors or minors in critical race theory, gender studies or intersectionality at public colleges and universities (35% favored, 43% opposed)
• Requiring all books available to children in public schools, including those selected by their teachers, to be separately reviewed by a media specialist (like a school librarian) for content the government deems inappropriate (36% favored, 44% opposed)
• Permanently banning schools and businesses from imposing COVID-19 mask or vaccine requirements (35% favored, 46% opposed)
• Granting political appointees the power to fire tenured faculty members at public colleges and universities at any time and for any reason (21% favored, 55% opposed)
• Banning transgender female athletes from playing on women's and girls' teams at public schools (52% favored, 31% opposed)

This polling holds up with other polling about controversial social policies recently pushed by several governors.

 

[lpetrich]

Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson announces presidential bid, says Trump should withdraw from race - POLITICO

“I am going to be running. And the reason, as I’ve traveled the country for six months, I hear people talk about the leadership of our country, and I’m convinced that people want leaders that appeal to the best of America, and not simply appeal to our worst instincts,” Hutchinson said during an interview with Jonathan Karl on ABC’s “This Week.” “I believe I can be that kind of leader for the people of America.”

What does he mean?

He plans to make a formal announcement later this month in Bentonville, AR. Last Friday, he called for Donald Trump to withdraw from the race.

“Well he should,” Hutchinson said, when asked whether Trump should pull out of the race. “But at the same time, we know he’s not [going to]. And there’s not any constitutional requirement.”

The indictment will become too big of a “sideshow,” Hutchinson said, adding that the former president should focus on his defense instead of another bid for the White House.

“I mean, first of all, the office is more important than any individual person. And so for the sake of the office of the presidency, I do think that’s too much of a sideshow and distraction, and he needs to be able to concentrate on his due process,” Hutchinson said, acknowledging that the former president should be presumed innocent of the charges, which the Manhattan District Attorney’s office have yet to publicly unveil.

He seems relatively sober compared to the likes of Donald Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene.

 

[lpetrich]

Nikki Haley is driving Mike Pence’s campaign up a wall - POLITICO - "Pence staffers are complaining privately about media coverage of Haley, another second-tier contender."

What sore losers.

Inside Pence’s operation, one senior Pence adviser granted anonymity to speak frankly about the dynamics of the race said “people don’t view [Haley] as a serious candidate.” This person also accused her of “chasing polls.”

“Her campaign is floundering,” the adviser said, “and by all accounts is failing its own competency test.”

I've seen speculation that she is mainly in the race to become a Vice Presidential candidate.

MP is still not officially in the race, but he should be saying before this summer.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Sadly, Betfair shows the Ds as 80% to win the popular vote in November 2024, but only 44% to win the electoral vote. (This is due to the huge "waste" of D votes in NY and Calif rather than any deliberate gerrymandering.)

some state boundaries are indeed deliberate gerrymandering.

 

[lpetrich]

Opinion | I Know What Nikki Haley Has Gone Through. That’s Why Her Rhetoric on Race Infuriates Me. - POLITICO - "The presidential candidate has long used her family’s experience with discrimination to establish her political brand. But to win a GOP primary she is diminishing that painful history."

"She and I went to schools still segregated and heavily underfunded decades after the Supreme Court supposedly put an end to such things with Brown v. Board of Education." In South Carolina.

"Schools in Bamberg, Berkeley and other largely-Black areas had been sucked dry by an all-white state legislature that helped establish a private school system — for white students — by finding ways to funnel public and other dollars to them in defiance of desegregation laws."

But Haley often only empathizes with people like me when it advances her political pursuits. The discrimination she endured, which she used to craft her political brand, magically disappears (or its edges are sanded down) when she speaks to a crowd of people who want to believe it never existed. At times, she has weaponized her story against Black and brown people who don’t identify as conservative or the policies that might uplift them.

Haley is adept at deriding what she calls a destructive identity politics of the left, and in the next breath using identity politics to gain favor among a largely white GOP base desperate to hear how great America is and why it’s wrong to critique its racial past or present. In that sense, she’s very much like Dr. Ben Carson, who also ended up in former President Donald Trump’s cabinet after spending his presidential campaign admonishing Black people to pull ourselves up by our bootstraps.

Or as Haley put it during the 2020 Republican National Convention: “America is not a racist country. This is personal for me. I am the proud daughter of Indian immigrants. They came to America and settled in a small Southern town. My father wore a turban. My mother wore a sari. I was a brown girl in a Black and white world. We faced discrimination and hardship. But my parents never gave in to grievance and hate.”

My Black parents never gave into grievance or hate either. Most Black people haven’t, despite what our families have endured for generations. I would have had no chance at success had they given in, or had I. And yet, it feels to me as though Haley expertly tells her story in a way to diminish and dismiss people like me, those who refuse to pretend the anger we sometimes feel at the obvious racism around us isn’t justified.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Randy Rainbow for president 2024!