The Keys to the White House yet again. Thirteen criteria for predicting the outcome of a Presidential election. These "keys" can be either true or false, and if at least 6 of them are false, then the Presidency changes parties.
This system has been remarkably successful for every Presidential election since 1984, except for 2000, which was a squeaker that was decided by the Supreme Court.
From 2020,
The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2020 · Issue 2.4, Fall 2020
Does Allan Lichtman Stand by His “13 Keys” Prediction of a Joe Biden Win? | American University, Washington, D.C.
This year,
The Keys to the White House:
The Outlook for 2024 - late December 2023 - Allan J. Lichtman, the inventor of this system of prediction.
What is Allan Lichtman's prediction for the 2024 US presidential election?
Updated Post: Where Allan Lichtman's "13 Keys to the White House" Stand in 2024: : fivethirtyeight
AL's assessments:
KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
False
KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
True
KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
True
KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
Leans False
KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Leans True
KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth
during the previous two terms.
Leans True
KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
True
KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Leans True
KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Leans True
KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Leans False
KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or
military affairs.
Leans False
KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
False
KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
True
- True: 4
- Leans True: 4
- Leans False: 3
- False: 2
On primary challengers, Dean Phillips have dropped out and Marianne Williamson continues to be insignificant. "The White House party has lost every election during the past 100 years in which there is an open seat and an incumbent party nomination battle."
Charisma must extend beyond the party's base to be counted. "There were many Reagan Democrats, but virtually no Trump Democrats." If anything, Donald Trump seems to have negative charisma to many people.
Scandal? "The Republicans have been trying to pin something illegal on Joe Biden for years and have come up empty."
AL notes that Joe Biden lost the House in the 2022 midterms and also that he seems devoid of charisma. One can still have some charisma in one's old age, as Bernie Sanders demonstrates, with nicknames like "Uncle Bernie" and "Tio Bernie" (Spanish version).
Third party? That will depend on the likes of RFK Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West.
Foreign/military failure? The withdrawal from Afghanistan was chaotic and an embarrassment. Like those Vietnamese trying to board a US helicopter above the US embassy in Saigon, some Afghans tried to hitch a ride on military transport airplanes.
The Russo-Ukraine War has become stalemated, despite some success on Ukraine's side, and some Republicans are obstructing aid to Ukraine.
The Israel-Hamas War has led to much more death and destruction by Israel than by Hamas, and the Biden Admin seems unwilling to forcefully confront the Netanyahu Admin.
Foreign/military success? None, at least so far. Ben Netanyahu hasn't said "Dod" yet (Hebrew for "uncle").
Beyond the scope of the Keys, there are two unique circumstances in 2024. At 81, Biden will be the oldest major party presidential candidate in U.S. history, topping Ronald Reagan in 1984 by 8 years. More significant are the unprecedented 91 felony indictments against Trump, including charges that he subverted American democracy and jeopardized the nation’s security. These are the most important indictments in the history of the United States, more important than the indictments of the Watergate conspirators or the atomic bomb spies.
Trump is a proven master of delay and may succeed in postponing his trials until after the election. However, if that ploy fails and Trump is tried and found guilty of serious felonies, this will scramble the race for president in unknown ways, given the lack of historical antecedents for analysis.
AL concludes in "Campiagning by the Keys"
On a positive note, the Keys have implications for governing the country and conducting presidential campaigns. The Keys show that what counts in presidential elections is governing, as measured by the consequential events of a presidential term, not packaging, image making, or campaigning. If candidates understood how elections really worked, they would avoid the empty, scripted, and consultant-driven campaigns that the American people have too often endured. Instead, they would strive to conduct substantive contests for the presidency and establish the foundations for governing the country during the next four years, thereby improving the prospects for themselves or their party to win another term. Candidates should explain their vision for the subsequent four years, specify the intended bills and executive orders of their first 100 days, and indicate the kinds of persons they would elevate to the cabinet, the White House, and the Supreme Court.
