The Stock Market

[funinspace]

Futures plunged after Trump addressed the nation last night. A travel ban on Europe and what would now be an ineffective stimulus package?
One of the greatest leadership tests a president could face and Trump is in office.
With the expected growth rate of the virus combined with the lack of testing, the shit is going to hit the fan on this.
Surely institutional investors are piecing all this together.

I'd say this is a good as an assessment of Clownstick's address as any (which will piss FFvC off as well...; 'I gave them their stupid speech that everyone said makes me look stately and look what the fuck happens'):
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/investing/stock-futures-coronavirus-trump/index.html

Dow (INDU) futures plunged more than 1,000 points, or 4.6%. S&P 500 (SPX) futures are down 4.3% and Nasdaq (COMP) futures dropped 4.5%.
The pain extended to global markets. London's FTSE 100 (UKX) dropped 5.3%, Germany's DAX (DAX) declined 5.5% and France's CAC 40 shed 5.4%. Italy's benchmark stock index, which has dropped 18% this week, fell another 5.1%.

Probably will be a bloody Thursday.

Are there even buyers in this market?

Not many for sure. I'd wager it will be a rough market for at least a month, if not 3-4+ months...

Ill informed Trump supporters, perhaps?

Well, that wouldn't include the greedy moneyed people. And, those MAGA Trumpeteers that do fit, largely aren't invested substantially in the stock markets anyway.

 

[Elixir]

Futures plunged after Trump addressed the nation last night.

What did he expect? Idiot shows up on TV looking and sounding like death warmed over, spouting transparent nonsense...
Textbook example of how NOT to inspire confidence.

I'd say this is a good as an assessment of Clownstick's address as any (which will piss FFvC off as well...; 'I gave them their stupid speech that everyone said makes me look stately and look what the fuck happens'):
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/investing/stock-futures-coronavirus-trump/index.html

Probably will be a bloody Thursday.

Are there even buyers in this market?

Not many for sure. I'd wager it will be a rough market for at least a month, if not 3-4+ months...

Ill informed Trump supporters, perhaps?

Well, that wouldn't include the greedy moneyed people. And, those MAGA Trumpeteers that do fit, largely aren't invested substantially in the stock markets anyway.

(If/) When levels get below where they were when Obama left office, I'm jumping back in. At this rate that could be this coming Monday. The markets might even trend down from there for a while, but IMHO, not for terribly long and I'll set aside some reserves...

 

[funinspace]

Another unsettling/sobering thought...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...the-global-economy-2020-03-11?mod=nextup_bomw

Among the unlikely heroes of the 2008 global financial crisis were the world leaders who scrambled to assemble in Washington to respond to the plummeting investing markets.

They discussed fiscal and monetary measures to bolster the economy. They promised financial-markets reform and resources to support emerging markets. They even foreswore protectionism and committed to accelerate free-trade talks.

A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away …

What may spook markets most this week is the dawning realization that there is no plan — and no one is in charge.

Not that I thought the smart people in power (US and otherwise) of 2008/9 did a great job, but they clearly didn't fuck it up. Yeah, that 2017 tax cut for the rich is now helping so much. This year was supposed to only be just over a trillion dollar deficit year ten years into an economic expansion...Yippee ki yay

Clownstick could have announced he was suspending all his China tariffs for a while...

 

[Ford]

"Say what you will about Trump, but hey...look at how well the stock market is doing!"

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-2016-trump-win-gains-erased-coronavirus-risks-2020-3-1028991585

Thursday's massive sell-off has erased any remaining stock market gains made since President Trump's 2016 election win.

 

[southernhybrid]

Futures are up about 1000 right now, but that doesn't mean that market won't be down 1000 before the end of the day. People seem to be selling into these rallies out of fear of the unknown. And Trump's stupid mouth and tweets aren't helping.

 

[Elixir]

Futures are up about 1000 right now, but that doesn't mean that market won't be down 1000 before the end of the day. People seem to be selling into these rallies out of fear of the unknown. And Trump's stupid mouth and tweets aren't helping.

True 'nuff. By the end of yesterday I had seen enough to be about 95% certain that within a year it would rebound by 20% or more. But next week or next month it could still be down another 15%

 

[funinspace]

"Say what you will about Trump, but hey...look at how well the stock market is doing!"

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-2016-trump-win-gains-erased-coronavirus-risks-2020-3-1028991585

Thursday's massive sell-off has erased any remaining stock market gains made since President Trump's 2016 election win.

Things are shitty enough w/o BS...

Rough numbers before today's opening:
Date: Jan 2017 Today
DJIA 20000 21200
NASDAQ 5500 7200
SP500 2250 2628

 

[TV and credit cards]

First quarter earnings reports and government data should be interesting come next month.
Traffic on the streets and in shopping center lots looks to be down conservatively about 30%. Every day looks like a Sunday morning out there.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Biden starts doing extremely well.
Stock market goes up.
Some media: stock market went up because Biden.

Biden gets double digits above Sanders in polls.
Stock market tanks.
Same media: *crickets*

The market tanked because of Covid-19. No reason to tie to Biden or Sanders.

 

[Jarhyn]

Biden starts doing extremely well.
Stock market goes up.
Some media: stock market went up because Biden.

Biden gets double digits above Sanders in polls.
Stock market tanks.
Same media: *crickets*

The market tanked because of Covid-19. No reason to tie to Biden or Sanders.

No, the market tanked because it was overvalued and inflated following buybacks and other plate spinning

The virus just broke the fragile equilibrium beyond the momentum of said spinning plates.

All of this is fundamentally the fault of the ones who started spinning plates instead of engaging in nation building activities.

 

[Ford]

"Say what you will about Trump, but hey...look at how well the stock market is doing!"

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-2016-trump-win-gains-erased-coronavirus-risks-2020-3-1028991585

Thursday's massive sell-off has erased any remaining stock market gains made since President Trump's 2016 election win.

Things are shitty enough w/o BS...

Rough numbers before today's opening:
Date: Jan 2017 Today
DJIA 20000 21200
NASDAQ 5500 7200
SP500 2250 2628

Helps to read the article:

The total market cap of the US equities market, as measured by the Russell 3000 index, has declined by $11.5 trillion from its February 19 peak to $23.8 trillion as of Thursday morning.

The current market cap is roughly equal to the size of the stock market when Donald Trump emerged victorious in the 2016 election.

And today, the three major indices were down around 12% each. The Russell 3000 index is also down 12%, and is only about 20 points higher than it was on January 20th, 2017.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/rua

The Russell 2000 (small cap stocks in the Russell 3000) is now at it's lowest since February of 2016.

No BS...things are shitty.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Stock Market is currently 300 pts higher than where it was when Trump was inaugurated.

Yes, the market was inflated, but Trump's continual Taoistic Action through Inaction plan on the pandemic is scaring the hell out of everyone.

 

[Elixir]

Stock Market is currently 300 pts higher than where it was when Trump was inaugurated.

Yes, the market was inflated, but Trump's continual Taoistic Action through Inaction plan on the pandemic is scaring the hell out of everyone.

If it goes down more tomorrow I'm buying more. Yay America.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The S&P500 ended on a sour note yesterday. Today it doesn’t know what it wants to do. Will fear take over?

I don’t think anyone has their head wrapped around the economic repercussions of this virus. If it’s capable of sticking around, if people remain infected without showing symptoms, I see complacency setting in, causing one or more repeat outbreaks.
I’m trying to think of all the businesses that can be decimated: gaming, cruise, airlines, dentists, restaurants, etc. Anything with crowds or close contact you can think of. Can the government even orchestrate such a huge bailout? I’m thinking a long tough depression could be in the cards if social distancing is the norm for three or more months to come, that would be enough to bankrupt many businesses.
I hear CNBC pundits talking about a snap back. Nothing is going to snap back if the unemployment rate spikes and businesses close. The government can provide all the low interest loans it wants but if people are out of work, it’s going to be a slow grow out of this mess.

Then again, I suppose those who retain employment but are forced to stay home may have an increased savings rate and the extra cash for when things do get better. Then again again, they may just use that unspent income to pay off existing consumer debt, which would be bad news for the credit card companies.

What do I know? I thought Netflix would be a hot buy.

 

[funinspace]

Things are shitty enough w/o BS...

Rough numbers before today's opening:
Date: Jan 2017 Today
DJIA 20000 21200
NASDAQ 5500 7200
SP500 2250 2628

Helps to read the article:

The total market cap of the US equities market, as measured by the Russell 3000 index, has declined by $11.5 trillion from its February 19 peak to $23.8 trillion as of Thursday morning.

The current market cap is roughly equal to the size of the stock market when Donald Trump emerged victorious in the 2016 election.

Yeah, it does... I tend to not read that site as it is so visually noisy, but still oops.

 

[Jarhyn]

The S&P500 ended on a sour note yesterday. Today it doesn’t know what it wants to do. Will fear take over?

I don’t think anyone has their head wrapped around the economic repercussions of this virus. If it’s capable of sticking around, if people remain infected without showing symptoms, I see complacency setting in, causing one or more repeat outbreaks.
I’m trying to think of all the businesses that can be decimated: gaming, cruise, airlines, dentists, restaurants, etc. Anything with crowds or close contact you can think of. Can the government even orchestrate such a huge bailout? I’m thinking a long tough depression could be in the cards if social distancing is the norm for three or more months to come, that would be enough to bankrupt many businesses.
I hear CNBC pundits talking about a snap back. Nothing is going to snap back if the unemployment rate spikes and businesses close. The government can provide all the low interest loans it wants but if people are out of work, it’s going to be a slow grow out of this mess.

Then again, I suppose those who retain employment but are forced to stay home may have an increased savings rate and the extra cash for when things do get better. Then again again, they may just use that unspent income to pay off existing consumer debt, which would be bad news for the credit card companies.

What do I know? I thought Netflix would be a hot buy.

I'm in the interesting position that my job intersects with aviation. I know my job won't just stick around; in fact, my industry will probably be one of the most in demand after all the dust settles, as we make airline training simulators and there's going to be a run on pilot training in the next 6 months, as all the grounded pilots will be needing device time to get current (if the airlines don't switch from running empty planes for gate slots to running currency flights for grounded pilots).

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Dow Jones futures have a bounce of 200ish points. The GOP is stalling the House bill and the White House is failing in providing much of any massive assurances regarding this pandemic. Of course, the GOP (minus the President) voted against TARP too.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The S&P500 ended on a sour note yesterday. Today it doesn’t know what it wants to do. Will fear take over?

I don’t think anyone has their head wrapped around the economic repercussions of this virus. If it’s capable of sticking around, if people remain infected without showing symptoms, I see complacency setting in, causing one or more repeat outbreaks.
I’m trying to think of all the businesses that can be decimated: gaming, cruise, airlines, dentists, restaurants, etc. Anything with crowds or close contact you can think of. Can the government even orchestrate such a huge bailout? I’m thinking a long tough depression could be in the cards if social distancing is the norm for three or more months to come, that would be enough to bankrupt many businesses.
I hear CNBC pundits talking about a snap back. Nothing is going to snap back if the unemployment rate spikes and businesses close. The government can provide all the low interest loans it wants but if people are out of work, it’s going to be a slow grow out of this mess.

Then again, I suppose those who retain employment but are forced to stay home may have an increased savings rate and the extra cash for when things do get better. Then again again, they may just use that unspent income to pay off existing consumer debt, which would be bad news for the credit card companies.

What do I know? I thought Netflix would be a hot buy.

I'm in the interesting position that my job intersects with aviation. I know my job won't just stick around; in fact, my industry will probably be one of the most in demand after all the dust settles, as we make airline training simulators and there's going to be a run on pilot training in the next 6 months, as all the grounded pilots will be needing device time to get current (if the airlines don't switch from running empty planes for gate slots to running currency flights for grounded pilots).

I’m assuming that would be a huge buy and after training bottlenecks are cleared, they’ve got extra simulators.
When we had an influx of students on the weapon system I taught in the navy, purchasing an additional system for training was out of the question. As much as they hated doing it, night classes were picked up.

 

[Elixir]

The S&P500 ended on a sour note yesterday. Today it doesn’t know what it wants to do. Will fear take over?

I don’t think anyone has their head wrapped around the economic repercussions of this virus. If it’s capable of sticking around, if people remain infected without showing symptoms, I see complacency setting in, causing one or more repeat outbreaks.
I’m trying to think of all the businesses that can be decimated: gaming, cruise, airlines, dentists, restaurants, etc. Anything with crowds or close contact you can think of. Can the government even orchestrate such a huge bailout? I’m thinking a long tough depression could be in the cards if social distancing is the norm for three or more months to come, that would be enough to bankrupt many businesses.
I hear CNBC pundits talking about a snap back. Nothing is going to snap back if the unemployment rate spikes and businesses close. The government can provide all the low interest loans it wants but if people are out of work, it’s going to be a slow grow out of this mess.

Then again, I suppose those who retain employment but are forced to stay home may have an increased savings rate and the extra cash for when things do get better. Then again again, they may just use that unspent income to pay off existing consumer debt, which would be bad news for the credit card companies.

What do I know? I thought Netflix would be a hot buy.

Markets are behaving as if the bottom has been probed, if not reached...
I do hope nobody here has fallen victim to panic selling.

Trump proposing 850 billion for "stimulus"...? Another ripoff for his donors?
That could be really effective if, instead of parceling it out to his cronies and their Companies, they should simply send every man woman and child in the country a check for $2600.00
But the chances of Trump letting this opportunity to steal tax money slip through his grimy mitts are slim and none.

 

[Jarhyn]

The S&P500 ended on a sour note yesterday. Today it doesn’t know what it wants to do. Will fear take over?

I don’t think anyone has their head wrapped around the economic repercussions of this virus. If it’s capable of sticking around, if people remain infected without showing symptoms, I see complacency setting in, causing one or more repeat outbreaks.
I’m trying to think of all the businesses that can be decimated: gaming, cruise, airlines, dentists, restaurants, etc. Anything with crowds or close contact you can think of. Can the government even orchestrate such a huge bailout? I’m thinking a long tough depression could be in the cards if social distancing is the norm for three or more months to come, that would be enough to bankrupt many businesses.
I hear CNBC pundits talking about a snap back. Nothing is going to snap back if the unemployment rate spikes and businesses close. The government can provide all the low interest loans it wants but if people are out of work, it’s going to be a slow grow out of this mess.

Then again, I suppose those who retain employment but are forced to stay home may have an increased savings rate and the extra cash for when things do get better. Then again again, they may just use that unspent income to pay off existing consumer debt, which would be bad news for the credit card companies.

What do I know? I thought Netflix would be a hot buy.

I'm in the interesting position that my job intersects with aviation. I know my job won't just stick around; in fact, my industry will probably be one of the most in demand after all the dust settles, as we make airline training simulators and there's going to be a run on pilot training in the next 6 months, as all the grounded pilots will be needing device time to get current (if the airlines don't switch from running empty planes for gate slots to running currency flights for grounded pilots).

I’m assuming that would be a huge buy and after training bottlenecks are cleared, they’ve got extra simulators.
When we had an influx of students on the weapon system I taught in the navy, purchasing an additional system for training was out of the question. As much as they hated doing it, night classes were picked up.

Simulators are already at 100% utilization in THIS environment, night classes included. That means that 24/7 someone is using every simulator in normal training requirements.