The Stock Market

[J842P]

Stock market? Well of of this minute, it's down another 10.53 percent. I finally talked my spouse into selling some of his IRA stocks. Anyone who has studied the market as long as I have knows that the biggest mistake that small investors make is riding down a stock.

IMHO, I'd say the biggest mistake small investors make is selling after the panic has run for a few weeks; and then sits out the markets for a few years until it feels good again. In the 2008/9 crash, the markets had largely recovered to their 6 month median pre-crisis values in about 2.5 years. But sometimes one does need to pull the plug for ones own specific reasons. I sold out about 25% of my holdings on 2/28 based on what I thought was most exposed to what is now unfolding (I also already had about 30% in bonds of various types). So, like Elixir, I'm watching...waiting...

If one thinks FFvC and the Repugs will pooch this big time, then yeah...it could be a long ugly ride for many years. It does sound like Clownstick at least gets it now, even if he isn't doing lots of smart things. And he doesn't care about deficits or spending too much money, even if the Repugs do...

I'm young. I actually bought more than I usually would, but too early. The markets were still at like a 15% loss. Oh well. I don't think it will be far off than what I would have gotten dollar-cost averaging, especially since I can continue to do that. But I definitely wish I had waited until now. Oh well. I've got time.

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

Stock market? Well of of this minute, it's down another 10.53 percent. I finally talked my spouse into selling some of his IRA stocks. Anyone who has studied the market as long as I have knows that the biggest mistake that small investors make is riding down a stock.

You look for a market floor when small investors start to bail, and a ceiling when they go all-in.

 

[J842P]

I'll have to give it a deeper read later, but I thought I'd point out that this guy sounds like a pretty hard core neocon, right winger... He also writes for the American Enterprise Institute...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Auslin

While I agree that the source is questionable what's the point in lying here?

One can skew a narrative and lay out a bunch of ideas, w/o fully lying. US - Great White Knight; PRC - Evil Totalitarian Bent on XYZ. That is pretty common...

Exactly. The neocons love to put on airs of being these erudite realists when it comes to foreign affairs. But they are manichaean to their core.

The author tries to paint the Chinese as uniquely culpable, because what the author cannot abide by is that "The world is quickly coming to praise the Communist Party’s governance model, instead of condemn it."

But he glosses over the nearly universal bumbling of the response by world governments.

He makes predictable conclusions about what this all means in broader terms. But the piece makes no novel or interesting observations, it contributes little more than a rationalization of the author's own world view. It is a great example of reasoning by ideological possession.

The author does make fundamentally sound observations about globalization, and I think that the author's conclusion that "in the longer run, they [world governments] must look to reform globalization by prudently reshaping their economies and societies in the shadow of future crises" is sound. Yet how could this not be the case in any world? Unfortunately, the whole piece is fundamentally mired in a slanted perspective.

 

[ZiprHead]

Stock market? Well of of this minute, it's down another 10.53 percent. I finally talked my spouse into selling some of his IRA stocks. Anyone who has studied the market as long as I have knows that the biggest mistake that small investors make is riding down a stock.

IMHO, I'd say the biggest mistake small investors make is selling after the panic has run for a few weeks; and then sits out the markets for a few years until it feels good again. In the 2008/9 crash, the markets had largely recovered to their 6 month median pre-crisis values in about 2.5 years. But sometimes one does need to pull the plug for ones own specific reasons. I sold out about 25% of my holdings on 2/28 based on what I thought was most exposed to what is now unfolding (I also already had about 30% in bonds of various types). So, like Elixir, I'm watching...waiting...

If one thinks FFvC and the Repugs will pooch this big time, then yeah...it could be a long ugly ride for many years. It does sound like Clownstick at least gets it now, even if he isn't doing lots of smart things. And he doesn't care about deficits or spending too much money, even if the Repugs do...

Just before the crash of 2008, I moved my money to the bond fun available to me. I don't know why the experts didn't see that one coming but I'm a dumbass and saw it coming. My mistake was not moving the money back to the stock fund afterwards. Lost out on making a lot of money that I could have made. I just plain forgot.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Stock market? Well of of this minute, it's down another 10.53 percent. I finally talked my spouse into selling some of his IRA stocks. Anyone who has studied the market as long as I have knows that the biggest mistake that small investors make is riding down a stock.

IMHO, I'd say the biggest mistake small investors make is selling after the panic has run for a few weeks; and then sits out the markets for a few years until it feels good again. In the 2008/9 crash, the markets had largely recovered to their 6 month median pre-crisis values in about 2.5 years. But sometimes one does need to pull the plug for ones own specific reasons. I sold out about 25% of my holdings on 2/28 based on what I thought was most exposed to what is now unfolding (I also already had about 30% in bonds of various types). So, like Elixir, I'm watching...waiting...

If one thinks FFvC and the Repugs will pooch this big time, then yeah...it could be a long ugly ride for many years. It does sound like Clownstick at least gets it now, even if he isn't doing lots of smart things. And he doesn't care about deficits or spending too much money, even if the Repugs do...

Just before the crash of 2008, I moved my money to the bond fun available to me. I don't know why the experts didn't see that one coming but I'm a dumbass and saw it coming. My mistake was not moving the money back to the stock fund afterwards. Lost out on making a lot of money that I could have made. I just plain forgot.

Well, now is the time!

 

[TV and credit cards]

So while you’re looking at your Bollinger Bands and your Aroon Indicator, what you should be looking at is a flattening of the curve of new Wuhan Virus cases. But wait! We don’t have all of what we need for testing so we don’t know what that new cases graph should even look like. I hear we should just multiply by 10 but we still won’t know when it’s flattening. But that’s when I think the markets will calm.
No sooner did the Cleveland Clinic get up and running for testing, they had to curtail it due to a lack of the swabs used for the test. I reckon they’re talking about those long Q-tips with the metal stem. I remember them well from the Philippines. Why don’t we have swabs? Why don’t we have masks? Why don’t we have so many of the things we need to handle this emergency? Well, maybe we would if we had a pandemic response team still in place; so says the MSNBC pundits. Beyond that, we seem to be dependent upon China to ship this stuff to us. Why are we reliant upon China? Shouldn’t these critical supplies be at least in part made in the USA just for this reason? Do we not have a federal agency to ensure they are? I think we do. I think it’s CISA under the DHS. I’m guessing but I’ll betcha they are a toothless agency at the mercy of Congress-> corporate wants-> capitalism.

Well, if we can’t test, no one gets sick and no one dies, right? Well, at least the numbers will look good. We just have to figure out what to do with the bodies.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Futures down again, as GOP continues slow lurch towards closing the door a quarter of the way behind the cow.

 

[marc]

 

[funinspace]

Interesting article from Real Clear Politics. Make of it what you will. Part on me is still waiting for leaked information of a second wave of infections coming out of China, just because of the incubation period.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/18/beijing_fears_covid-19_is_turning_point_for_china_globalization__142686.html

I'll have to give it a deeper read later, but I thought I'd point out that this guy sounds like a pretty hard core neocon, right winger... He also writes for the American Enterprise Institute...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Auslin

Auslin was a regular columnist for the Wall Street Journal[9], writing on Asia, in addition to publishing in leading media such as The Atlantic[10], Foreign Affairs[11], Foreign Policy[12], and The Spectator[13], among others. He has been a commentator on Fox News, BBC, and for other media outlets, including The News Hour.

I finally stopped reading a little after this point:

Those concerned with global health issues may wonder why it is that China is wracked regularly by viral epidemics in addition to coronavirus, such as SARS, African Swine Fever, and avian flu (another outbreak is happening right now). Others may begin to look more carefully at China’s environmental devastation and the hundreds of thousands of premature deaths each year from air and water pollution.

First, the simple part: Yeah, China is an emerging nation like India and have big pollution problems. But this author stitches together lots of random shit to paint with a big black brush.

African Swine Fever originated in sub-Saharan Africa, and is in more than 50 countries.
The recent bout of avian flu, only transmits to human from close contact to the birds. And in the link the author provides, it points out that the latest bout hasn't killed anyone (yet).

So yeah the author has the SARS outbreak and then muddies it by tossing in a couple red herrings. Not quite lies, but a lot of manure... As to the rest (of at least what I read), I take it as a smear campaign against the "Evil State". A binary author, for a world in which there are 50 shades of grey... Not that any country shouldn't have some level of self-sufficiency for emergencies.

 

[funinspace]

So while you’re looking at your Bollinger Bands and your Aroon Indicator,....

LOL...I could never get into that kind of stuff.

what you should be looking at is a flattening of the curve of new Wuhan Virus cases. But wait! We don’t have all of what we need for testing so we don’t know what that new cases graph should even look like. I hear we should just multiply by 10 but we still won’t know when it’s flattening. But that’s when I think the markets will calm.

This will certainly be a big component of a settling/rebound.

I cited this on post #23, but it is worth repeating, as this also will keep the markets spooked. FFvC now trying to act Presidential, at least moves it in the right direction.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...the-global-economy-2020-03-11?mod=nextup_bomw

What may spook markets most this week is the dawning realization that there is no plan — and no one is in charge.

Back in 2008/9, TARP was approved in October 2008. It got a few tweaks by December.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program

In the original plan presented by Paulson, the government would buy troubled (toxic) assets in insolvent banks and then sell them at auction to private investor and/or companies. This plan was scratched when Paulson met with United Kingdom's Prime Minister Gordon Brown who came to the White House for an international summit on the global credit crisis.[17] Prime Minister Brown, in an attempt to mitigate the credit squeeze in England, planned a package of three measures consisting of funding, debt guarantees and infusing capital into banks via preferred stock.[11][12] The objective was to directly support banks' solvency and funding; in some economists' view, effectively nationalizing many banks. This plan seemed attractive to the Treasury Secretary in that it was relatively easier and seemingly boosted lending more quickly. The first half of the asset purchases may not be effective in getting banks to lend again because they were reluctant to risk lending as before with low lending standards. To make matters worse, overnight lending to other banks came to a relative halt because banks did not trust each other to be prudent with their money.[citation needed]

On November 12, 2008, Paulson indicated that reviving the securitization market for consumer credit would be a new priority in the second allotment.[18][19]

On December 19, 2008, President Bush used his executive authority to declare that TARP funds could be spent on any program that Paulson,[20] deemed necessary to alleviate the financial crisis.

Then there was the FR action:

And markets bottomed in March 2009...

 

[Harry Bosch]

View attachment 26625

This isn't rocket science. Consumers buying products is 70% of the US market. When consumers can't consume, the economy stalls. I don't know why you'd call consumers as those on the "bottom".

 

[marc]

This isn't rocket science.

Of course not. But it does seem to be beyond the grasp of those who follow republican economists.

Consumers buying products is 70% of the US market. When consumers can't consume, the economy stalls.

Which seems to be beyond the grasp of those that think if you cut or eliminate the minimum wage it is a good thing.

I don't know why you'd call consumers as those on the "bottom".

In terms of finances and political influence.

 

[Treedbear]

If you look at the chart of the DOW30 there appears to be very strong support at about 18,000 that developed between May 2015 and Oct 2016. Not that it won't plunge below that but it should at least give a good bounce.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If you look at the chart of the DOW30 there appears to be very strong support at about 18,000 that developed between May 2015 and Oct 2016. Not that it won't plunge below that but it should at least give a good bounce.

Except work hours in the US is about to be cut sharp and hard. And the government still isn't doing anything to address the actual problem. I can't imagine the Dow being happy with Goodyear closing up shop.

 

[Treedbear]

If you look at the chart of the DOW30 there appears to be very strong support at about 18,000 that developed between May 2015 and Oct 2016. Not that it won't plunge below that but it should at least give a good bounce.

Except work hours in the US is about to be cut sharp and hard. And the government still isn't doing anything to address the actual problem. I can't imagine the Dow being happy with Goodyear closing up shop.

It's possible that the smart money already anticipated that and it's baked into the price. The market isn't required to appear rational.

 

[TV and credit cards]

If you look at the chart of the DOW30 there appears to be very strong support at about 18,000 that developed between May 2015 and Oct 2016. Not that it won't plunge below that but it should at least give a good bounce.

Except work hours in the US is about to be cut sharp and hard. And the government still isn't doing anything to address the actual problem. I can't imagine the Dow being happy with Goodyear closing up shop.

I don’t know that I’d pay much attention to support levels in this scenario. I can only guess, what percentage of the economy is closed for business right now. I had read when it was little more than bars and restaurants, it accounted for 14%. There is no clarity whatsoever what the next month or so holds for the US.

Also GM, Ford, Fiat/Chrysler closed up shop and I’m sure most of their supply chain went with them.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It is getting close to time to panic.

The Ohio Department of Job and Family (ODJFS) Services has received more than 100,000 applications for unemployment since March 15.

There have been 111,055 unemployment benefit applications, which is a massive increase from the 3,895 claims filed last week.

Yes, in the last week, 111,055 Ohioans lost their jobs. That is people in just Ohio! Doing some fancy math (making stuff up), the number of unemployed in the US could go increase by 10 to 16% in just one week... as in just last week... as in it already did.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

View attachment 26625

And look what happens when you have lots of workers but not the capital to create jobs. Plenty of examples--third world shitholes. It takes both labor and capital!

 

[ZiprHead]

View attachment 26625

And look what happens when you have lots of workers but not the capital to create jobs. Plenty of examples--third world shitholes. It takes both labor and capital!

Is capital a problem in the USA? Has the rich suddenly become poor?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

link

Early Thursday, a government report showed 281,000 Americans filed for their first week of unemployment benefits last week. It was a sudden 33% jump over the week before and the biggest percentage increase since 1992.

But next week's report is likely to be far worse, according to Goldman Sachs economists.

They predict the report will show 2.25 million Americans filed for their first week of unemployment benefits this week — eight times the number of people who filed last week and the highest level on record.

We musn't forget the true victim in all this... Trump's image.