The Stock Market

[Jimmy Higgins]

Markets are waiting to see if DC and the White House can pull its head out of its ass. Now Trump wants checks to everyone... like it is his idea. Of course, checks need to be deposited! Also, $1,000 is umm... not that much money.

Trump appears to be trudging America from a possible recession to a possible depression.

 

[Elixir]

Markets are waiting to see if DC and the White House can pull its head out of its ass. Now Trump wants checks to everyone... like it is his idea. Of course, checks need to be deposited! Also, $1,000 is umm... not that much money.

Trump appears to be trudging America from a possible recession to a possible depression.

Hmmm.... 850b/331m > 2500
Where's the other $1500 per person (assuming he's blathering about sending out 1k/citizen)??
Another $500b for his donors?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Markets are waiting to see if DC and the White House can pull its head out of its ass. Now Trump wants checks to everyone... like it is his idea. Of course, checks need to be deposited! Also, $1,000 is umm... not that much money.

Trump appears to be trudging America from a possible recession to a possible depression.

Hmmm.... 850b/331m > 2500
Where's the other $1500 per person (assuming he's blathering about sending out 1k/citizen)??
Another $500b for his donors?

You need to pay closer attn to the articles. Most of the aid is tax breaks or some crazy shit.

This is the time we literally just need handouts. Too bad the idiots in the White House don't understand how to figure out just how much needs to go where to prevent a n economic catastrophe.

 

[funinspace]

The S&P500 ended on a sour note yesterday. Today it doesn’t know what it wants to do. Will fear take over?

I don’t think anyone has their head wrapped around the economic repercussions of this virus. If it’s capable of sticking around, if people remain infected without showing symptoms, I see complacency setting in, causing one or more repeat outbreaks.
I’m trying to think of all the businesses that can be decimated: gaming, cruise, airlines, dentists, restaurants, etc. Anything with crowds or close contact you can think of. Can the government even orchestrate such a huge bailout? I’m thinking a long tough depression could be in the cards if social distancing is the norm for three or more months to come, that would be enough to bankrupt many businesses.
I hear CNBC pundits talking about a snap back. Nothing is going to snap back if the unemployment rate spikes and businesses close. The government can provide all the low interest loans it wants but if people are out of work, it’s going to be a slow grow out of this mess.

Then again, I suppose those who retain employment but are forced to stay home may have an increased savings rate and the extra cash for when things do get better. Then again again, they may just use that unspent income to pay off existing consumer debt, which would be bad news for the credit card companies.

What do I know? I thought Netflix would be a hot buy.

Markets are behaving as if the bottom has been probed, if not reached...
I do hope nobody here has fallen victim to panic selling.

Trump proposing 850 billion for "stimulus"...? Another ripoff for his donors?
That could be really effective if, instead of parceling it out to his cronies and their Companies, they should simply send every man woman and child in the country a check for $2600.00
But the chances of Trump letting this opportunity to steal tax money slip through his grimy mitts are slim and none.

Obviously, anything is possible regarding the markets...but I'm not so sure we are probing our bottom quite yet. Far too many people live paycheck to paycheck. And many of the gig workers don't normally qualify for unemployment benefits. Then there is tips/commission that has vaporized. The US has only started testing in a bigger way just in the last 5 days or so. I think our numbers will explode above Germany/France in short order, which will keep investors spooked and will drive more lock downs.

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-03-17/coronavirus-layoffs-work-hours-jobs

As fallout from the coronavirus pandemic hits the economy, it’s slamming the American workforce: Some 18% of adults reported that they had been laid off or that their work hours had been cut, a new poll found.

The proportion affected grew for lower-income households, with 25% of those making less than $50,000 a year reporting that they had been let go or had their hours reduced,

The clown car administration only has a couple weeks to convince their neanderthals that their BS politics won't cut it, and focus on a big package just to slow this shit show down. TARP was hard enough to get thru, and Clownstick and his clown car make the Shrub and his team look sharp...

 

[Elixir]

I'm not so sure we are probing our bottom quite yet. Far too many people live paycheck to paycheck.

Maybe... but the stock market isn't usually terribly concerned with "people's" welfare other than big investors. The utter destruction of consumer confidence seems fairly baked in at this point, along with the anticipation of a recession. Opportunity buying appears to be fighting with panic selling at this point - I'll be surprised if there are enough sellers to drop prices another 10% below the lows seen to date (I'd be a buyer at that point).
Of course we should not put any stupid and destructive act or policy beyond the Trumptard administration; if they elect to seize this opportunity to raid the treasury on behalf of the kleptocrats in DC and the donors who put them there, all bets are off. It could be a 5-year retreat, and actual values could be significantly diminished. OTOH, if they put enough cash in the hands of the citizenry there could be a strong rebound by this fall.

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

Markets are waiting to see if DC and the White House can pull its head out of its ass. Now Trump wants checks to everyone... like it is his idea. Of course, checks need to be deposited! Also, $1,000 is umm... not that much money.

Trump appears to be trudging America from a possible recession to a possible depression.

Hmmm.... 850b/331m > 2500
Where's the other $1500 per person (assuming he's blathering about sending out 1k/citizen)??
Another $500b for his donors?

It's supposed to be "per adult", so even more money is missing.

 

[funinspace]

I'm not so sure we are probing our bottom quite yet. Far too many people live paycheck to paycheck.

Maybe... but the stock market isn't usually terribly concerned with "people's" welfare other than big investors. The utter destruction of consumer confidence seems fairly baked in at this point, along with the anticipation of a recession. Opportunity buying appears to be fighting with panic selling at this point - I'll be surprised if there are enough sellers to drop prices another 10% below the lows seen to date (I'd be a buyer at that point).
Of course we should not put any stupid and destructive act or policy beyond the Trumptard administration; if they elect to seize this opportunity to raid the treasury on behalf of the kleptocrats in DC and the donors who put them there, all bets are off. It could be a 5-year retreat, and actual values could be significantly diminished. OTOH, if they put enough cash in the hands of the citizenry there could be a strong rebound by this fall.

Well, yeah my point wasn't about investors concern about peoples welfare, it was concern about their ability to spend money, make car loan payments, pay rent, continue XYZ memberships and their payments.

Yeah, we could be hitting a temporary bottom and that could pull people in. I'm certainly tempted on a few things. At the same time, in 2008/9, the indices fell 50% before they hit bottom...

Added: FWIW, I dipped into one stock today...

 

[TV and credit cards]

Interesting article from Real Clear Politics. Make of it what you will. Part on me is still waiting for leaked information of a second wave of infections coming out of China, just because of the incubation period.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/18/beijing_fears_covid-19_is_turning_point_for_china_globalization__142686.html

 

[funinspace]

Interesting article from Real Clear Politics. Make of it what you will. Part on me is still waiting for leaked information of a second wave of infections coming out of China, just because of the incubation period.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/18/beijing_fears_covid-19_is_turning_point_for_china_globalization__142686.html

I'll have to give it a deeper read later, but I thought I'd point out that this guy sounds like a pretty hard core neocon, right winger... He also writes for the American Enterprise Institute...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Auslin

Auslin was a regular columnist for the Wall Street Journal[9], writing on Asia, in addition to publishing in leading media such as The Atlantic[10], Foreign Affairs[11], Foreign Policy[12], and The Spectator[13], among others. He has been a commentator on Fox News, BBC, and for other media outlets, including The News Hour.

 

[southernhybrid]

Stock market? Well of of this minute, it's down another 10.53 percent. I finally talked my spouse into selling some of his IRA stocks. Anyone who has studied the market as long as I have knows that the biggest mistake that small investors make is riding down a stock.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So Wall Street pretty much thinks the GOP can’t do anything right, as the GOP demonstrates they can’t even handle a crisis.

 

[funinspace]

Stock market? Well of of this minute, it's down another 10.53 percent. I finally talked my spouse into selling some of his IRA stocks. Anyone who has studied the market as long as I have knows that the biggest mistake that small investors make is riding down a stock.

IMHO, I'd say the biggest mistake small investors make is selling after the panic has run for a few weeks; and then sits out the markets for a few years until it feels good again. In the 2008/9 crash, the markets had largely recovered to their 6 month median pre-crisis values in about 2.5 years. But sometimes one does need to pull the plug for ones own specific reasons. I sold out about 25% of my holdings on 2/28 based on what I thought was most exposed to what is now unfolding (I also already had about 30% in bonds of various types). So, like Elixir, I'm watching...waiting...

If one thinks FFvC and the Repugs will pooch this big time, then yeah...it could be a long ugly ride for many years. It does sound like Clownstick at least gets it now, even if he isn't doing lots of smart things. And he doesn't care about deficits or spending too much money, even if the Repugs do...

 

[Harry Bosch]

Stock market? Well of of this minute, it's down another 10.53 percent. I finally talked my spouse into selling some of his IRA stocks. Anyone who has studied the market as long as I have knows that the biggest mistake that small investors make is riding down a stock.

The greatest mistake that an individual can make today is selling during a down market. All the people selling today are locking in their losses. If you standby, and the economy recovers, stocks will climb back and erase the paper loss showing now.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yeah, selling today is a major mistake... unless things are going to get real bad. Selling before it plummeted would be best. Of course, that is never easy to tell and honestly, how bad could even Trump fuck up a pandemic response, right?

 

[fromderinside]

The market is dying I tell you. I can feel the Bern.*

*^{_{as bernie ratings drop faster than the DOW}}

 

[Harry Bosch]

Yeah, selling today is a major mistake... unless things are going to get real bad. Selling before it plummeted would be best. Of course, that is never easy to tell and honestly, how bad could even Trump fuck up a pandemic response, right?

Yes. I'd say that you should sell if you need your stocks within 5 years (if that is the case, you shouldn't be in the market anyway). But if you are a longer term buyer, now is a great time to buy.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Interesting article from Real Clear Politics. Make of it what you will. Part on me is still waiting for leaked information of a second wave of infections coming out of China, just because of the incubation period.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/18/beijing_fears_covid-19_is_turning_point_for_china_globalization__142686.html

I'll have to give it a deeper read later, but I thought I'd point out that this guy sounds like a pretty hard core neocon, right winger... He also writes for the American Enterprise Institute...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Auslin

Auslin was a regular columnist for the Wall Street Journal[9], writing on Asia, in addition to publishing in leading media such as The Atlantic[10], Foreign Affairs[11], Foreign Policy[12], and The Spectator[13], among others. He has been a commentator on Fox News, BBC, and for other media outlets, including The News Hour.

While I agree that the source is questionable what's the point in lying here?

 

[Rhea]

To blame China and take heat off of Trump.

 

[funinspace]

I'll have to give it a deeper read later, but I thought I'd point out that this guy sounds like a pretty hard core neocon, right winger... He also writes for the American Enterprise Institute...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Auslin

While I agree that the source is questionable what's the point in lying here?

One can skew a narrative and lay out a bunch of ideas, w/o fully lying. US - Great White Knight; PRC - Evil Totalitarian Bent on XYZ. That is pretty common...

 

[Elixir]

Yeah, selling today is a major mistake... unless things are going to get real bad. Selling before it plummeted would be best. Of course, that is never easy to tell and honestly, how bad could even Trump fuck up a pandemic response, right?

Yes. I'd say that you should sell if you need your stocks within 5 years (if that is the case, you shouldn't be in the market anyway). But if you are a longer term buyer, now is a great time to buy.

Agree 100%. In fact that's been exactly what I've been mulling over - a 5 year near horizon for needing the cash vs. the opportunity presented by the current - and probably near future - market. In 2008-9 I got hammered, and had to sell some when things were down. And I'm not any younger now. Haven't been burned by this downturn yet, so greed beckons.

It's a tough one.