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The Trump Coup Part 2

SLD said:
Ford said:
Generally the incumbent does worse on the second go round.
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This time may be different, because Trump is on his third go round. He’s not a new thing for voters who may be tired of the incumbent. The poor showing of the Republicans in the midterm, especially the more rabid Trump supporters does give me hope that the country is sick of him and his shit.
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Generally, the incumbent's party gets a shellacking in the mid term. The failure of the "red wave" was a pretty significant loss.

We're not out of the woods yet. We've got a whole year and change until November of 2024, and a lot can happen. If Biden's alleged "dementia" kicks in and he starts looking like he's not fit to serve, the Democrats will default to Harris as their candidate, and I have my doubts about her ability to win over voters. Then again, if Trump's trials go poorly for him (very likely), he will be damaged goods even if he wins the GOP nomination.

At the end of the day, it rests on the economy. If people's pocketbooks are fatter than they were, then it should be an easy lift for the Democrats. But then again...they sure do know how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory...
 
SLD said:
Swammerdami said:
SLD said:
He might actually call for a general uprising. But I’m not sure if it would have much of an impact. There might be some isolated incidents, but I suspect that they’d be easily contained by the administration. The prosecutions for January 6 will deter many.
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You are an optimist. I have a less sanguine view.

There are millions of Americans who idolize Trump and believe, or pretend to believe, that everything he says is true. Most of these millions own guns.

In the olden rational days, a voice like Cronkite or even Nixon or Reagan would speak out, and call off the mob. But now we have entire networks which will support the seditions, and almost the entire Republican Party will fall in line. The GOP retains much electoral strength; litigation against Trump will cause anger; countersuits (including Impeach Biden) will drown the airwaves and provoke violence. The GOP will be increasingly corrupt, craven and criminal.

This story does not have a happy ending.
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Scary thought, but you may be right. I would think that national guard units or even regular army units could put down any such insurrection though. While I don’t think Republican governors would call out the guard, Biden has the authority to federalize the guard and put down any insurrection.
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I can't predict the future accurately, but I expect random violence will precede any organized rebellion. Trump lovers and their ilk are already shooting dozens per year in random acts of hatred. Expect that number to rise sharply, with the violence directed against immigrants, non-Christians, prosecutors, FBI, Democratic figures, and others their Fuhrer identifies. Expect specific neighborhoods to erupt in riots, with an organized army, if any, marching on Washington just as a side-show.

The GOP in Congress will cooperate with the hate-fueled morons. We already see the GOP taking the Pentagon hostage, answering indictments with phony anti-Biden hearings, and proudly taking the U.S. sovereign credit rating down a notch. With a majority in the House they can already take the entire country hostage. Pundits think the GOP may get both Houses in 2024 even if the Ds hold on to the Presidency.

I don't see any "light at the end of the tunnel." Things may get worse than even the pessimists fear.
 
Ford said:

We're not out of the woods yet. We've got a whole year and change until November of 2024, and a lot can happen. If Biden's alleged "dementia" kicks in and he starts looking like he's not fit to serve, the Democrats will default to Harris as their candidate, and I have my doubts about her ability to win over voters. Then again, if Trump's trials go poorly for him (very likely), he will be damaged goods even if he wins the GOP nomination.
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So, basically, another election between each party’s worst possible candidate? Sheesh!
 
Shadowy Man said:
Ford said:

We're not out of the woods yet. We've got a whole year and change until November of 2024, and a lot can happen. If Biden's alleged "dementia" kicks in and he starts looking like he's not fit to serve, the Democrats will default to Harris as their candidate, and I have my doubts about her ability to win over voters. Then again, if Trump's trials go poorly for him (very likely), he will be damaged goods even if he wins the GOP nomination.
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So, basically, another election between each party’s worst possible candidate? Sheesh!
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I doubt that Trump's trials will go poorly for him - if they "go" at all before the election - , unless there are TV cameras in the courtroom.
And yeah, Sleepy Joe is a terrible candidate. He has been an excellent President, but his oration is so unfortunate, making him an easy target for mindless Republican mockery.
All of that said, I'm betting (for now) that Trump's increasingly vocal, increasingly violent, increasingly rabid base, while making lots and lots of angry noise, has shrunk over the last few years by at least a few points. It will require a genius feat of manipulation of the electoral college to get him re-installed IMHO. Not that such a feat is beyond imagination, but a free and fair election, should one occur, is NOT going to put Agent Orange and his posse of mobsters back in power.
 
SLD said:
Ford said:
BH said:
Generally the incumbent does worse on the second go round.
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As I explained perhaps in a different thread, this is incorrect. Incumbents who win re-election, and since the beginning of the 20th century they usually have, have almost always done better in their re-election compaigns than they did the first time around. These resuls include McKinley in 1900, Roosevelt in 1936, Eiisenhower in 1956, Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1984, Clinton in 1996, and Bush in 2004. Only Obama did worse in re-election than in his initial election. Woodrow Wilson also did worse in 1916 than in 1912, but it’s not a valid comparison because in 1912 there was a viable three-way race for president in which the Republican actually finished third, with former President Teddy Roosevelt on the Bull Moose ticket coming in second to Wilson.
 
"When I'm reelected, I'm going after everyone who went after me." (Trump)
"On day one, we start slitting throats." (DeSantis)
"Why'd you wake me up? I forgot to take my pill? Yeah, I guess I did. Thanks." (Biden)

Goddammit.
 
Elixir said:
Shadowy Man said:
Ford said:

We're not out of the woods yet. We've got a whole year and change until November of 2024, and a lot can happen. If Biden's alleged "dementia" kicks in and he starts looking like he's not fit to serve, the Democrats will default to Harris as their candidate, and I have my doubts about her ability to win over voters. Then again, if Trump's trials go poorly for him (very likely), he will be damaged goods even if he wins the GOP nomination.
Click to expand...
So, basically, another election between each party’s worst possible candidate? Sheesh!
Click to expand...
I doubt that Trump's trials will go poorly for him - if they "go" at all before the election - , unless there are TV cameras in the courtroom.
And yeah, Sleepy Joe is a terrible candidate. He has been an excellent President, but his oration is so unfortunate, making him an easy target for mindless Republican mockery.
All of that said, I'm betting (for now) that Trump's increasingly vocal, increasingly violent, increasingly rabid base, while making lots and lots of angry noise, has shrunk over the last few years by at least a few points. It will require a genius feat of manipulation of the electoral college to get him re-installed IMHO. Not that such a feat is beyond imagination, but a free and fair election, should one occur, is NOT going to put Agent Orange and his posse of mobsters back in power.
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It would have to be an almost impossible manipulation of the electoral college. I don't think it's out of bounds to say Trump loses the popular vote again, but (as I said before) he doesn't have direct access to the levers of power as he did in 2020. The swing states - even the ones with state governments/officials favorable to Trump told him to pound sand when he demanded they "find" him some votes. The "alternate electors" gambit failed, and the final chance was to have a compliant VP or (as was apparently part of the plan) to keep him from presiding over the count altogether. I don't expect the swing states will be any more keen on throwing the election to Trump as they were last time, and when those electoral votes get to Congress, it will be divided with a Democratic VP presiding over the count...which is of course purely ceremonial. The courts? They uniformly shot down all Trump's claims of voter fraud last time, and the 2024 election will be even more secure and carefully scrutinized.

Trump would have to win the popular vote by a convincing margin and/or take the electoral votes in the same way.
 
ideologyhunter said:
Recent polling: Trump 44%, Biden 44%. Enough to keep you up at night.
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Yup. I want to subscribe to the indicators that @Ford cites, but those polls are worrying. It is going to fall to every one of us to do what we can to drive turnout, even those of us who live in “blue” States. A Trump win will mean the end of America as we once knew it.
 
ZiprHead said:
ideologyhunter said:
Recent polling: Trump 44%, Biden 44%. Enough to keep you up at night.
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Way too early to place much stock in polling.
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True. The issue is the economy and right now people think it sucks. Something like 65% say it’s bad. And they blame Biden. But that could change as the it picks up more steam and inflation comes under control. Also Biden is just beginning his messaging on the economy.

But a lot of pundits are predicting a rough economic patch ahead. Home prices are starting to fall, and credit card debt has risen to record levels, probably due to inflation. With higher interest rates that’s going to have a major impact on spending in the future. Thus I remain seriously worried about Biden’s chances.
 
A return to just 8 years ago would be an upgrade.
 
ZiprHead said:
ideologyhunter said:
Recent polling: Trump 44%, Biden 44%. Enough to keep you up at night.
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Way too early to place much stock in polling.
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Yes, agreed, but then, election eve of 2016 was too early to rely on polls -- for me.
For Trump to be robust in the polling in the midst of arrest + arrest + arrest...essentially, he's out on bail...tells me that we're in political chaos.
 
An internal Trump campaign memo by Kenneth Chesebro, a lawyer allied with Donald Trump, reveals new details about how the former president and his team initiated the plan to interfere with the electoral college process and install fake GOP electors in multiple states after losing the 2020 presidential election.

There is no bad news for the fascist party. All news is good news as long as their boy features front and center/
 
SLD said:
ZiprHead said:
ideologyhunter said:
Recent polling: Trump 44%, Biden 44%. Enough to keep you up at night.
Click to expand...
Way too early to place much stock in polling.
Click to expand...
True. The issue is the economy and right now people think it sucks. Something like 65% say it’s bad. And they blame Biden. But that could change as the it picks up more steam and inflation comes under control. Also Biden is just beginning his messaging on the economy.

But a lot of pundits are predicting a rough economic patch ahead. Home prices are starting to fall, and credit card debt has risen to record levels, probably due to inflation. With higher interest rates that’s going to have a major impact on spending in the future. Thus I remain seriously worried about Biden’s chances.
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Right now people think the economy sucks in no small part because Biden is just beginning his messaging on the economy. They really dropped the ball on this. With the exception of inflation (which is coming down quickly now), just about every other major economic indicator has been in the green for well over a year now. When he was VP, it took years for the economy to recover from the 2008 recession. Trump left things a smoking mess, but the recovery has been surprisingly swift. Yet most voters think we're still floundering. This comes down to messaging.

Meanwhile, Trump is shouting (literally in all caps every day) about how terrible things are, how only he can solve it, and while the right wing media has cooled on him somewhat since the Fox lawsuit, they're still firmly ensconced in the "Biden is terrible for the economy, but Trump can still save us" camp. Biden doesn't need to be typing in all caps and posting at 3am, but he should be banging the drum about his economic wins very loudly. Should have been doing it for awhile now.
 
Ford said:
Biden doesn't need to be typing in all caps and posting at 3am, but he should be banging the drum about his economic wins very loudly. Should have been doing it for awhile now.
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So true. His messaging is a reflection of his oration; low key, muddled, hard to discern and largely lost on any possible audience.
The FACT that he has done a truly exceptional job looking after the Country's needs might be noted in the history books, but it escapes the vast majority of those who benefit from it. If he had a tenth of say, Mayor Pete's articulation, he'd be a shoo-in.
 
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ideologyhunter said:
Recent polling: Trump 44%, Biden 44%. Enough to keep you up at night.
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Honestly, it kinda makes me feel better.

The economy is improving. Trump's legal issues are worsening.
No guarantees of anything, but those look like good numbers, to me at this time.
Tom
 
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