The Virus - Are You Affected?

[ZiprHead]

3) Stomp on it hard so that the reproduction rate drops to significantly below 1.0 and the number of active cases is actually declining. Simultaneously expand testing infrastructure. When active cases have dropped to the hundreds (and undetected active cases have become insignificant), open up but with the handbrakes on, i.e. refrain from mass events for pretty much the rest of the year and open up the borders for e.g. family/friend visits with health checks in place but no mass tourism. If you have a very good idea who has it, it is enough to reduce the movements of those who have it. As long as you have no real idea who has it, reducing everyone's movements is the only safe bet.

Trying that would probably cause a civil war here from all the right wing loonies who don't want to be cooped up.

I have no idea who wrote this other than the person who posted it said it was a history teacher friend. I wish I knew so I could give proper attribution.

“Good God.

From 1941 through 1945, The U.S. Government asked citizens to ration food....To ration tires...gasoline...rubber products of all kinds. Women were asked to give up silk stockings. Paper was almost impossible to find. They asked citizens to take the bumpers off their cars, and turn them in for scrap metal.

People had to endure blackout regulations, closing blackout shades before turning on ANY lights. Folks had to drive with hoods on their headlights if they drove at night. By most accounts, a driver could see about 4 feet in front of his car. Speed limits dropped to 35 mph, nation-wide.

Roughly 8 million men were drafted and told to put their lives on hold. Another 10 million joined-up, and put their lives on hold voluntarily.

Professional sports ceased to function. Lots of professional athletes served in either Europe or the Pacific, instead of being the "entertainment." So did lots of actors.

Mail was censored. So was telephone service.

For nearly 4 years.

In 2020, a NEW threat hit us...A virus.

The Government asked ONE thing of us: Stay home. Don't gather.

We made it ONE MONTH before there was protesting and rioting in the streets.

Pretty Goddamn pathetic.”

 

[DrZoidberg]

They're at least consistent with each other - unlike your earlier 1% vs. 10-30%. My guess would be that both are a bit too high, though.

However the rule of thumb is valid only during the hot phase of exponential growth. When new infections have levelled off or are declining, it no longer is. It's based on the assumption that the true case fatality rate is somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5% and there's a lag of two weeks between infections and deaths. So today's deaths reflect roughly 1% of the infected from two-three weeks ago. Assuming a doubling period of infections of 5-7 days, we can estimate that today's infected are about 6-8 times the number from two-three weeks ago from which today's deaths are recruited. So the factor 700 crucially rests on the assumption that today's infections are much more numerous than the infections from which the deaths are recruited.

I am hoping for Sweden's sake that this rule of thumb is no longer valid, or else it will max out capacity early next week at the latest.

March 28 was a very long time ago. Both countries had at that point only just been infected.

Wrong. Denmark's total (known) cases on March 28 were over one quarter of today's. Considering that they're probably testing more now than then, that there's a lag between the actual infection and showing symptoms/getting tested, and that the rate of new infections is lower now than then, it's reasonable to assume that talking about *all* cases including untested ones, a third to half of the people who ever have been infected in Denmark were infected by March 28. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

For Sweden I'm reluctant to make any such estimate since their numbers are effectively made up. I know worker's rights are writ large in Sweden, but don't try telling me corona doesn't work weekends there!

It's worth mentioning that nobody knows how contagious it is. There's confusing and contradictory studies on assymptomatics. Can they spread? Can those once infected and immune still get reinfected, be assymptomatic, and spread? There's different reports on that.

Both Denmark and Sweden have stopped testing people in general. They've even stopped testing those seeking help. They don't want people to show up at hospitals just to get tested. The only group of people tested in any numbers are health care workers who work with at risk patients, who aren't likely to have the full protective gear. So you can just ignore the number for confirmed cases in Scandinavia. At this point it is a worthless number. The real number is way higher. By order of magnitude.

I have a friend working in a Danish Covid-19 intensive care ward as a doctor. She still hasn't been tested, even though she's convinced she's had it. She's covering up in protective gear anyway. She isn't getting tested because she's not curious. It has zero impact on her job. That's the attitude of health workers here.

If they have a patient with ARDS they place people in isolation and a ventilator. They don't need to test them to establish that they have ARDS. When they're well enough not to need a ventilator, they still don't need to be tested. Testing them for Covid-19 adds no information needed to help people at this moment. The only reason to keep track of that number is for research reasons. But other countries are collecting that data. South Korea and Iceland. We also don't need that number to find out whether there's an active pandemic going on. We already know this. That's why the confirmed number of cases for Scandinavia is wrong.

 

[Angry Floof]

They're at least consistent with each other - unlike your earlier 1% vs. 10-30%. My guess would be that both are a bit too high, though.

However the rule of thumb is valid only during the hot phase of exponential growth. When new infections have levelled off or are declining, it no longer is. It's based on the assumption that the true case fatality rate is somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5% and there's a lag of two weeks between infections and deaths. So today's deaths reflect roughly 1% of the infected from two-three weeks ago. Assuming a doubling period of infections of 5-7 days, we can estimate that today's infected are about 6-8 times the number from two-three weeks ago from which today's deaths are recruited. So the factor 700 crucially rests on the assumption that today's infections are much more numerous than the infections from which the deaths are recruited.

I am hoping for Sweden's sake that this rule of thumb is no longer valid, or else it will max out capacity early next week at the latest.

March 28 was a very long time ago. Both countries had at that point only just been infected.

Wrong. Denmark's total (known) cases on March 28 were over one quarter of today's. Considering that they're probably testing more now than then, that there's a lag between the actual infection and showing symptoms/getting tested, and that the rate of new infections is lower now than then, it's reasonable to assume that talking about *all* cases including untested ones, a third to half of the people who ever have been infected in Denmark were infected by March 28. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

For Sweden I'm reluctant to make any such estimate since their numbers are effectively made up. I know worker's rights are writ large in Sweden, but don't try telling me corona doesn't work weekends there!

It's worth mentioning that nobody knows how contagious it is.

It's worth mentioning that "nobody knows" is not entirely accurate. It's more like "we have a useful working knowledge of the contagion level of covid 19." There's even a metric!

https://www.uchealth.org/today/viruses-101-why-the-new-coronavirus-is-so-contagious-how-to-fight-it/
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-contagious-r-naught-average-patient-spread-2020-3
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/26/21195347/coronavirus-covid-19-symptoms-reset-podcast
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
https://www.theatlantic.com/science...t-and-far-will-new-coronavirus-spread/605632/
https://sph.umich.edu/pursuit/2020posts/how-scientists-quantify-outbreaks.html

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

3) Stomp on it hard so that the reproduction rate drops to significantly below 1.0 and the number of active cases is actually declining. Simultaneously expand testing infrastructure. When active cases have dropped to the hundreds (and undetected active cases have become insignificant), open up but with the handbrakes on, i.e. refrain from mass events for pretty much the rest of the year and open up the borders for e.g. family/friend visits with health checks in place but no mass tourism. If you have a very good idea who has it, it is enough to reduce the movements of those who have it. As long as you have no real idea who has it, reducing everyone's movements is the only safe bet.

Trying that would probably cause a civil war here from all the right wing loonies who don't want to be cooped up.

I have no idea who wrote this other than the person who posted it said it was a history teacher friend. I wish I knew so I could give proper attribution.

“Good God.

From 1941 through 1945, The U.S. Government asked citizens to ration food....To ration tires...gasoline...rubber products of all kinds. Women were asked to give up silk stockings. Paper was almost impossible to find. They asked citizens to take the bumpers off their cars, and turn them in for scrap metal.

People had to endure blackout regulations, closing blackout shades before turning on ANY lights. Folks had to drive with hoods on their headlights if they drove at night. By most accounts, a driver could see about 4 feet in front of his car. Speed limits dropped to 35 mph, nation-wide.

Roughly 8 million men were drafted and told to put their lives on hold. Another 10 million joined-up, and put their lives on hold voluntarily.

Professional sports ceased to function. Lots of professional athletes served in either Europe or the Pacific, instead of being the "entertainment." So did lots of actors.

Mail was censored. So was telephone service.

For nearly 4 years.

In 2020, a NEW threat hit us...A virus.

The Government asked ONE thing of us: Stay home. Don't gather.

We made it ONE MONTH before there was protesting and rioting in the streets.

Pretty Goddamn pathetic.”

Obviously the protesters are MAGAdiots, but it should be noted that from 1941-5, pretty much everyone was employed, even women who'd never held a job before. Their economic situation improved dramatically from what had been for the previous five years.

 

[TSwizzle]

I have no idea who wrote this other than the person who posted it said it was a history teacher friend. I wish I knew so I could give proper attribution.

“Good God.

From 1941 through 1945, The U.S. Government asked citizens to ration food....To ration tires...gasoline...rubber products of all kinds. Women were asked to give up silk stockings. Paper was almost impossible to find. They asked citizens to take the bumpers off their cars, and turn them in for scrap metal.

People had to endure blackout regulations, closing blackout shades before turning on ANY lights. Folks had to drive with hoods on their headlights if they drove at night. By most accounts, a driver could see about 4 feet in front of his car. Speed limits dropped to 35 mph, nation-wide.

Roughly 8 million men were drafted and told to put their lives on hold. Another 10 million joined-up, and put their lives on hold voluntarily.

Professional sports ceased to function. Lots of professional athletes served in either Europe or the Pacific, instead of being the "entertainment." So did lots of actors.

Mail was censored. So was telephone service.

For nearly 4 years.

In 2020, a NEW threat hit us...A virus.

The Government asked ONE thing of us: Stay home. Don't gather.

We made it ONE MONTH before there was protesting and rioting in the streets.

Pretty Goddamn pathetic.”

This looks like it was typed up by a Russian troll and planted on Facebook. When is Zuckerberg going to get serious on clamping down on this shit ?

 

[Elixir]

Obviously the protesters are MAGAdiots, but it should be noted that from 1941-5, pretty much everyone was employed, even women who'd never held a job before. Their economic situation improved dramatically from what had been for the previous five years.

Yabut - it wasn't THIS country that an insane Nazi was running in 1941.
If we had something other than an insane Nazi crime family running this country and some despot from elsewhere was running roughshod over his neighboring countries, perhaps we could unite to oppose him and gin up a lot of employment in a massive war effort...

 

[Jokodo]

They're at least consistent with each other - unlike your earlier 1% vs. 10-30%. My guess would be that both are a bit too high, though.

However the rule of thumb is valid only during the hot phase of exponential growth. When new infections have levelled off or are declining, it no longer is. It's based on the assumption that the true case fatality rate is somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5% and there's a lag of two weeks between infections and deaths. So today's deaths reflect roughly 1% of the infected from two-three weeks ago. Assuming a doubling period of infections of 5-7 days, we can estimate that today's infected are about 6-8 times the number from two-three weeks ago from which today's deaths are recruited. So the factor 700 crucially rests on the assumption that today's infections are much more numerous than the infections from which the deaths are recruited.

I am hoping for Sweden's sake that this rule of thumb is no longer valid, or else it will max out capacity early next week at the latest.

March 28 was a very long time ago. Both countries had at that point only just been infected.

Wrong. Denmark's total (known) cases on March 28 were over one quarter of today's. Considering that they're probably testing more now than then, that there's a lag between the actual infection and showing symptoms/getting tested, and that the rate of new infections is lower now than then, it's reasonable to assume that talking about *all* cases including untested ones, a third to half of the people who ever have been infected in Denmark were infected by March 28. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

For Sweden I'm reluctant to make any such estimate since their numbers are effectively made up. I know worker's rights are writ large in Sweden, but don't try telling me corona doesn't work weekends there!

It's worth mentioning that nobody knows how contagious it is. There's confusing and contradictory studies on assymptomatics. Can they spread? Can those once infected and immune still get reinfected, be assymptomatic, and spread? There's different reports on that.

Both Denmark and Sweden have stopped testing people in general. They've even stopped testing those seeking help. They don't want people to show up at hospitals just to get tested. The only group of people tested in any numbers are health care workers who work with at risk patients, who aren't likely to have the full protective gear. So you can just ignore the number for confirmed cases in Scandinavia. At this point it is a worthless number. The real number is way higher. By order of magnitude.

I have a friend working in a Danish Covid-19 intensive care ward as a doctor. She still hasn't been tested, even though she's convinced she's had it. She's covering up in protective gear anyway. She isn't getting tested because she's not curious. It has zero impact on her job. That's the attitude of health workers here.

If they have a patient with ARDS they place people in isolation and a ventilator. They don't need to test them to establish that they have ARDS. When they're well enough not to need a ventilator, they still don't need to be tested. Testing them for Covid-19 adds no information needed to help people at this moment. The only reason to keep track of that number is for research reasons. But other countries are collecting that data. South Korea and Iceland. We also don't need that number to find out whether there's an active pandemic going on. We already know this. That's why the confirmed number of cases for Scandinavia is wrong.

Since deaths in Denmark are rather clearly trending down too (unlike in Sweden), since peaking between April 2-5, it stands to reason that actual infections have peaked too, and at least a week earlier. Unless you are claiming that a lot of deaths go undetected (and significantly more than two weeks ago).

Also, we seen to have a much better picture of how contagious it is than of many other factors - including what percentage of survivors suffer lasting damage. Not knowing enough is the primary reason the Swedish strategy is a bad idea. It's a bit like driving in the autobahn with 180kmh in deep fog. Reasonable people, when they don't know that there is an obstacle hidden in the fog but neither that there isn't one, opt to go slow.

 

[southernhybrid]

I just learned that the largest nursing home in my town now has at least 30 infected residents with five deaths. There are also quite a few staff members infected. This is the best facility in town and they started being very cautious long before the rest of the people in the state were. They've been checking staff members for fever and other symptoms, keeping all visitors out etc. But, I just read that people can begin shedding the virus for at least two days before they develop symptoms, so that would certainly explain why this thing pops up suddenly, even when people are taking precautions.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I don't understand China's strategy. Either they're trying to stop is completely, which means that for all eternity they'll have to have a closed border. Or they're just lying about the numbers of dead. Which is what I think is happening.

Anybody have a theory?

No, their objective is to quarantine arrivals, not stop them entirely. They have suspended all existing visas but they are issuing some new ones--the border is open, just limited.

I strongly suspect their intent will be to reopen with other countries that have succeeded in stamping it out. The world is going to end up divided into the countries that stomped on it and those that didn't, travel to the former will require quarantine or vaccination.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I have no idea who wrote this other than the person who posted it said it was a history teacher friend. I wish I knew so I could give proper attribution.

“Good God.

From 1941 through 1945, The U.S. Government asked citizens to ration food....To ration tires...gasoline...rubber products of all kinds. Women were asked to give up silk stockings. Paper was almost impossible to find. They asked citizens to take the bumpers off their cars, and turn them in for scrap metal.

People had to endure blackout regulations, closing blackout shades before turning on ANY lights. Folks had to drive with hoods on their headlights if they drove at night. By most accounts, a driver could see about 4 feet in front of his car. Speed limits dropped to 35 mph, nation-wide.

Roughly 8 million men were drafted and told to put their lives on hold. Another 10 million joined-up, and put their lives on hold voluntarily.

Professional sports ceased to function. Lots of professional athletes served in either Europe or the Pacific, instead of being the "entertainment." So did lots of actors.

Mail was censored. So was telephone service.

For nearly 4 years.

In 2020, a NEW threat hit us...A virus.

The Government asked ONE thing of us: Stay home. Don't gather.

We made it ONE MONTH before there was protesting and rioting in the streets.

Pretty Goddamn pathetic.”

This looks like it was typed up by a Russian troll and planted on Facebook. When is Zuckerberg going to get serious on clamping down on this shit ?

Moscow isn't after us doing sensible things, they're after messing us up. They would be saying to open things up.

 

[ZiprHead]

Whitmer extended the stay at home order to May 15th. here in Michigan.

 

[DrZoidberg]

It's worth mentioning that nobody knows how contagious it is. There's confusing and contradictory studies on assymptomatics. Can they spread? Can those once infected and immune still get reinfected, be assymptomatic, and spread? There's different reports on that.

Both Denmark and Sweden have stopped testing people in general. They've even stopped testing those seeking help. They don't want people to show up at hospitals just to get tested. The only group of people tested in any numbers are health care workers who work with at risk patients, who aren't likely to have the full protective gear. So you can just ignore the number for confirmed cases in Scandinavia. At this point it is a worthless number. The real number is way higher. By order of magnitude.

I have a friend working in a Danish Covid-19 intensive care ward as a doctor. She still hasn't been tested, even though she's convinced she's had it. She's covering up in protective gear anyway. She isn't getting tested because she's not curious. It has zero impact on her job. That's the attitude of health workers here.

If they have a patient with ARDS they place people in isolation and a ventilator. They don't need to test them to establish that they have ARDS. When they're well enough not to need a ventilator, they still don't need to be tested. Testing them for Covid-19 adds no information needed to help people at this moment. The only reason to keep track of that number is for research reasons. But other countries are collecting that data. South Korea and Iceland. We also don't need that number to find out whether there's an active pandemic going on. We already know this. That's why the confirmed number of cases for Scandinavia is wrong.

Since deaths in Denmark are rather clearly trending down too (unlike in Sweden), since peaking between April 2-5, it stands to reason that actual infections have peaked too, and at least a week earlier. Unless you are claiming that a lot of deaths go undetected (and significantly more than two weeks ago).

Also, we seen to have a much better picture of how contagious it is than of many other factors - including what percentage of survivors suffer lasting damage. Not knowing enough is the primary reason the Swedish strategy is a bad idea. It's a bit like driving in the autobahn with 180kmh in deep fog. Reasonable people, when they don't know that there is an obstacle hidden in the fog but neither that there isn't one, opt to go slow.

The deaths in Denmark didin't go up high enough when it peaked. So they're opening up the lockdown now, to push the peak higher. Because that's the strategy.

It's too early to say whether or not it'll give lasting damage. But the research on the original SARS patients suggests that there will be no lasting damage. From what I've read the people who claim lasting damage have mostly been alarmists spreading iffy studies.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I spent my winter in Nicargua. When I was there I made friends with a doctor there. According to her Nicaragua is overwhelmed by dead. Also in Ecuador and Venezuela. But authorities don't want to alarm people. So they've covered it up. AND they're telling people to go about their business as normal. In Nicaragua the president even organised a "peace and unity" march to beat the Corona virus together. Which helped the spread along. The Venezuelan president told the people in an adress that drinking vinegar can kill the disease. These are all countries who's health care systems are inadequate in the best of times.

According to her, the statistics coming out from these countries are all complete bullshit. The authorities are actively lying about the situtation.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I don't understand China's strategy. Either they're trying to stop is completely, which means that for all eternity they'll have to have a closed border. Or they're just lying about the numbers of dead. Which is what I think is happening.

Anybody have a theory?

No, their objective is to quarantine arrivals, not stop them entirely. They have suspended all existing visas but they are issuing some new ones--the border is open, just limited.

I strongly suspect their intent will be to reopen with other countries that have succeeded in stamping it out. The world is going to end up divided into the countries that stomped on it and those that didn't, travel to the former will require quarantine or vaccination.

I'm not so sure about that. Since cats are now a vector, it'll just keep coming back every ten years or so. Not letting it rip through your country is not really an option. I haven't heard a single expert say that stomping it out is an option.

 

[Jokodo]

It's worth mentioning that nobody knows how contagious it is. There's confusing and contradictory studies on assymptomatics. Can they spread? Can those once infected and immune still get reinfected, be assymptomatic, and spread? There's different reports on that.

Both Denmark and Sweden have stopped testing people in general. They've even stopped testing those seeking help. They don't want people to show up at hospitals just to get tested. The only group of people tested in any numbers are health care workers who work with at risk patients, who aren't likely to have the full protective gear. So you can just ignore the number for confirmed cases in Scandinavia. At this point it is a worthless number. The real number is way higher. By order of magnitude.

I have a friend working in a Danish Covid-19 intensive care ward as a doctor. She still hasn't been tested, even though she's convinced she's had it. She's covering up in protective gear anyway. She isn't getting tested because she's not curious. It has zero impact on her job. That's the attitude of health workers here.

If they have a patient with ARDS they place people in isolation and a ventilator. They don't need to test them to establish that they have ARDS. When they're well enough not to need a ventilator, they still don't need to be tested. Testing them for Covid-19 adds no information needed to help people at this moment. The only reason to keep track of that number is for research reasons. But other countries are collecting that data. South Korea and Iceland. We also don't need that number to find out whether there's an active pandemic going on. We already know this. That's why the confirmed number of cases for Scandinavia is wrong.

Since deaths in Denmark are rather clearly trending down too (unlike in Sweden), since peaking between April 2-5, it stands to reason that actual infections have peaked too, and at least a week earlier. Unless you are claiming that a lot of deaths go undetected (and significantly more than two weeks ago).

Also, we seen to have a much better picture of how contagious it is than of many other factors - including what percentage of survivors suffer lasting damage. Not knowing enough is the primary reason the Swedish strategy is a bad idea. It's a bit like driving in the autobahn with 180kmh in deep fog. Reasonable people, when they don't know that there is an obstacle hidden in the fog but neither that there isn't one, opt to go slow.

The deaths in Denmark didin't go up high enough when it peaked.

That wasn't the question. The question was whether it's realistic that close to half of the people who ever got infected did so by March 28.

So they're opening up the lockdown now, to push the peak higher. Because that's the strategy.

It's too early to say whether or not it'll give lasting damage. But the research on the original SARS patients suggests that there will be no lasting damage. From what I've read the people who claim lasting damage have mostly been alarmists spreading iffy studies.

We know that *some* people show damage to their lungs or other organs *weeks* after recovering from a "light" case of COVID-19. What we don't know is what percentage they are, and what we cannot logically know is to what extent that damage will heal over months and years.

 

[Old Woman in Purple]

Whitmer extended the stay at home order to May 15th. here in Michigan.

Pritzker extended Illinois' stay-at-home order thru May 30th.

 

[ZiprHead]

I'm in a facebook group, Michiganders For Staying Home To Defeat Covid-19. Noam Chomsky is going to address the group at 3 pm.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2835069839911461/

 

[TSwizzle]

Whitmer extended the stay at home order to May 15th. here in Michigan.

Pritzker extended Illinois' stay-at-home order thru May 30th.

I thought I read somewhere that golf courses are being allowed to open up.

Good news if true.

 

[Angry Floof]

My cousin's husband and son have tested positive. They live with my aunt who is almost 90 and has Alzheimer's. My cousin's son has been staying in the basement apartment and following all precautions, but the husband is a trumpity dipshit taking no precautions and I'm really worried about my aunt.

 

[Angry Floof]

For those of us who can help, you should sign up with your neighborhood Nextdoor group if you aren't already. Not only are neighbors coming together to help, ask for help, or share ideas and info, the site itself is setting up local listings of businesses that you can help while adhering to distancing guidelines. Here's a message I received:

Janet,

The commitment of local businesses to their community, even in this difficult time, is incredibly moving. More than ever, neighbors like you are asking “How can we help?”

To answer that question, we’ve updated our Nextdoor Business Pages so that you can support your favorite businesses through:

Takeout and Delivery: Click here to see which restaurants, cafes, and bars that are offering takeout/delivery options. Order this weekend and share a photo with neighbors to inspire them to do the same.

Gift Cards: See businesses in your neighborhood that are offering gift cards here and help them get cash flow when they most desperately need it.

GoFundMe Campaigns: Businesses running a GoFundMe campaign can include a link in the “Story” section of their Business Page to help raise money for impacted employees.

If your favorite local businesses have not added these items to their Nextdoor Business Page, share these updates with them so that you and your neighbors can support them in their time of need.

Additionally, businesses voted as a 2019 Neighborhood Favorite in your area are now able to use their Business Page to post into the newsfeed with their hours, services, or operations. Thank, Like, or Comment on their posts to show your support.

We’re all in this together, and our team at Nextdoor remains committed to cultivating a kinder world where everyone has a neighborhood to rely on.

Sarah Friar
Nextdoor CEO