I don't think I did. I think you seem to have a hobby horse. Perhaps you have read an article somewhere that has a specific agenda or has expressed themselves in a specific way, and you think everybody needs to use that terminology of they are wrong. Could that what be what is happening?
I think you definitely did. And I read a bunch of articles on this topic since the start of the pandemic.
It's more complicated than that. It's not as simple as a virus mutates into a new strain and then gets by the immune system again. The immune system is increadibly complicated. I'm no virologist. But I know this much.
Yes, the immune system is very complicated. Innate vs. adaptive immunity. Macrophages, natural killer cells, dendritic cells. B-cells and antigens, of which there are several types. T cells, where you have CD8, CD4 among others. Very complicated indeed and very Rube Goldbergesque too.
Here's how memory B-cells work.
Yes, I know the gist of that.
The most mindblowing aspect of immunology is that this system is present in bacteria. They have a similar immune system as we do. The scale of this is truly mindblowing.
While bacteria do have an antiviral defense system, it is nothing at all like human immune system.
I'm aware of this. But all that means is that the current situation will be permanent. Life expectancy will drop throughout the world.
I think you are wrong on this, and I also very much hope you are wrong on this.
The only realistic scenario I can see is that the scientifically minded people in the world lose their patience and measures will turn draconian.
Depends on the country. Can't really see US go draconian even if Biden wins. Too much federalism, too many dissenters doing their thing. And not just white consertatives either, even though MSM loves to focus on them to the exclusion of everything else.
I could more draconian lockdowns in Europe. Many European countries have had daily case numbers much higher than US recently. Some ridiculously high.
Belgium yesterday had over 16k cases. That is over 450k when adjusted to US population.
Sure. But I think the immunologists are already aware of this. It's factored into their predictions.
Maybe, maybe not. But you mentioned the Spanish flu. As bad as it was, people were not forced to socially distance and wear masks for years.
So I very much doubt we will have to wear masks and socially distance past this Spring.
I'd say chances that these trials are already being run in Chinese Uigur concentration camps is pretty high. Perhaps also somewhere in Russia. I know China ordered a regiment of soldiers to all take a vaccine candidate (on something they already knew was pretty safe from a limited trial). There are benefits of being a police state.
Hmm, maybe Europe can run trials on Lesbos and other mass migrant camps.
A mask in your pocket takes no space. Going on public transport without a mask is like driving a car without a seat belt. It's probably unnecessary. But why not?
If masks on public transit prove to be as life-saving outside pandemics as seat belts are on cars, I'd agree. But I doubt numbers would back you up.
Especially since only a fraction of flus etc. are passed on subways and buses.
I can't see it happening in fashion conscious Europe either. I hope I'm wrong though. I do see the possibility of it becoming a class thing. So the educated middle class wears masks while the working class don't. It becomes a way for the middle class to signal status. Like "sustainable" clothing and fabric shopping bags are today.
Maybe designer masks will become a fashion accessory for the pretentious "slaves to fashion" set.
That's not what I heard on Twiv. It's a podcast. So I don't recall the stats. But how hard a state is hit is mostly down to how populous it is. The more people are in close proximity with eachother the more Covid-19. That's why New York was so hard hit, in spite of wearing masks. But you can factor that out when calculating this.
COVID-19 hit NY(C) hard to great degree due to high population density, yes. Also due to it being a major destination for international travel.
But the virus did not spread in New York "in spite" of wearing masks. COVID hit New York in March and April. New cases actually peaked April 10th. Early in the pandemic, universal mask wearing wasn't yet recommended, and non-homemade masks were in short supply anyway. For example, see this article from March 31st:
Should you wear a mask? US health officials re-examine guidance amid coronavirus crisis
But that was then. New York was hit by US wavelet 1a. My own state and most of the well-populated areas in the country were hit most strongly by the wavelet 1b which peaked US-wide at the end of July. The current wavelet is mostly hitting areas not hit by 1a and 1b, which is mostly rural areas, especially in the Midwest.
Northeast Wisconsin, North and South Dakota and parts of many other states are rather hard hit, but no major metro areas are.
It would be interesting to see how, for example Austin Texas fares in comparrison with Texas in general.
You can find a US map granular by county here. You can see what I've been saying about it being mostly rural counties that are hit hard now. They have a more zoomed in
map of Texas as well.
Austin is doing better than other Texan cities, but it is not as stark a difference as you probably expected.
Texas, like Georgia, was hit during 1b this Summer, btw.
