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The Virus - Are You Affected?

"With Covid-19" basically means from Covid-19. There are basically three scenarios:

1) Trauma. This can kill someone who has Covid-19, but it would be noted as why.

2) They were near death anyway--but Covid finishes such people off before they die naturally. Thus they're Covid deaths.

3) They died of Covid.

On TWIV (This week in virology) they explained that Covid-19's impact on the mortality of older people isn't as serious as it is in young people. If we look at excess deaths Covid-19 mostly kills old people who would have died anyway. It's when we look at younger people, the excess death's from Covid-19 take a dramatic departure. Very few younger dead from Covid-19 would have died at that age. It's the dead among the young that makes Covid-19 a serious disease. But worth noting is that it's strongly correlated with over-weight.

If this were the case we wouldn't be seeing the huge numbers of excess deaths as it would simply be replacing one cause with another.

What? You are comparing not dying with dying. If people who otherwise wouldn't die are dying then, no, we are not replacing one cause of death with another.
 
"With Covid-19" basically means from Covid-19. There are basically three scenarios:

1) Trauma. This can kill someone who has Covid-19, but it would be noted as why.

2) They were near death anyway--but Covid finishes such people off before they die naturally. Thus they're Covid deaths.

3) They died of Covid.

On TWIV (This week in virology) they explained that Covid-19's impact on the mortality of older people isn't as serious as it is in young people. If we look at excess deaths Covid-19 mostly kills old people who would have died anyway. It's when we look at younger people, the excess death's from Covid-19 take a dramatic departure. Very few younger dead from Covid-19 would have died at that age. It's the dead among the young that makes Covid-19 a serious disease. But worth noting is that it's strongly correlated with over-weight.
Aren't the excess deaths among the youth relatively high because young people usually aren't dying?

Exactly.
 
If this were the case we wouldn't be seeing the huge numbers of excess deaths as it would simply be replacing one cause with another.

What? You are comparing not dying with dying. If people who otherwise wouldn't die are dying then, no, we are not replacing one cause of death with another.

If Covid were mostly killing people who were going to die anyway we would see the excess death count way below the Covid death count. We wouldn't be seeing the excess death count above the Covid count.
 
Aren't the excess deaths among the youth relatively high because young people usually aren't dying?

Exactly.

*sigh*. Why do I need to write longhand?

Aren’t the excess deaths from Covid-19 among the youth high because young people usually aren’t dying at all?

Yes, they are. Which I believe is what Dr Z meant by "exactly".

People aged 25-55 in the developed world are very unlikely to die.

The mortality from COVID-19 in this cohort is low, compared to mortality from COVID-19 in older cohorts; But despite that, it is high enough to be the leading cause of death.

If you are aged 25-55 and are in any way concerned about your imminent death from any cause at all, you should be most concerned about COVID-19, because that's by far the most likely way for you to die. It's the largest threat to your life, in a world where you shouldn't be expecting to have any serious threats to your life.

15-25 year olds die from automobiles. Under 15s die from paediatric and/or genetic disorders. Over 55s die from heart disease or cancer. But 25-55 year olds don't (on the whole) die. Until now.
 
When I'm in public and I'm in sweatpants people (ie middle-aged women) sometimes yell at me to keep distance. When I wear a suit they have no problems with me being super close.

People are very irrational about this. They seem more ruled by ickyness than what makes sense.

My super intelligent engineering girlfriend is super worried about who we let in through the door. But who she's ok with has nothing to do with how many people they interact with, but rather how much she feels safe around them. Her anxiety about this is as irrational as she is smart.

I find people's behaviour about this interesting.
 
My wife has managed to blag her way to getting a vaccination on Wednesday. Someone she knows has got her and a few others an appointment. They have obviously skipped the line somehow. She does work in a private school and I don't think she falls in with any of the priority tiers. Los Angeles vaccination roll out is a bit of a shambles due to a combination of things, basic local incompetence coupled with logistics being screwed up due to the weather elsewhere apparently.
 
When I'm in public and I'm in sweatpants people (ie middle-aged women) sometimes yell at me to keep distance. When I wear a suit they have no problems with me being super close.

People are very irrational about this. They seem more ruled by ickyness than what makes sense.

My super intelligent engineering girlfriend is super worried about who we let in through the door. But who she's ok with has nothing to do with how many people they interact with, but rather how much she feels safe around them. Her anxiety about this is as irrational as she is smart.

I find people's behaviour about this interesting.

The only things I look at are whether someone has an appropriate mask used correctly and if they are taking care to keep their distance. No one comes into our house other than my immediate family who live here.
 
When I'm in public and I'm in sweatpants people (ie middle-aged women) sometimes yell at me to keep distance. When I wear a suit they have no problems with me being super close.

LOL, who wears a suit these days ?!

People are very irrational about this. They seem more ruled by ickyness than what makes sense.

My super intelligent engineering girlfriend is super worried about who we let in through the door. But who she's ok with has nothing to do with how many people they interact with, but rather how much she feels safe around them. Her anxiety about this is as irrational as she is smart.

I find people's behaviour about this interesting.

Indeed, it has turned a lot of people into nasty pieces of work.
 
When I'm in public and I'm in sweatpants people (ie middle-aged women) sometimes yell at me to keep distance. When I wear a suit they have no problems with me being super close.

LOL, who wears a suit these days ?!

I'm wearing a suit, right now!

It's just me and my boss in the head office. We're completely alone here.

We're here because he's moving on to new adventures and I'm going to take over his job.

It just feels weird to be in the office without a suit. I have no rational explanation. If I'm to psychoanalyse myself, it so he should feel better about handing over the keys to the castle to me. Wearing a suit is a way to show that I take the job very seriously.

Indeed, it has turned a lot of people into nasty pieces of work.

As it has you IMHO. I've read what you've written in this thread.

The fact that people are overly anxious and irrational about this virus doesn't make it harmless or just a flu. I think you aren't anxious enough IMHO. Either position on this is wrong. Being overly anxious is better than being overly relaxed. Less people die.
 
I'm wearing a suit, right now!

It's just me and my boss in the head office. We're completely alone here.

We're here because he's moving on to new adventures and I'm going to take over his job.

It just feels weird to be in the office without a suit. I have no rational explanation. If I'm to psychoanalyze myself, it so he should feel better about handing over the keys to the castle to me. Wearing a suit is a way to show that I take the job very seriously.

I too experienced the same in Germany. When I was a lowly engineer and project manager I dressed rather casually in the US, Canada, the PRC, and Germany, in slacks and no tie. When I was promoted to the executive board in Germany I dusted off my suits and ties, which were hopelessly out of style, and started to wear them. Nothing was said to me that I had to wear them, I just felt that I should. One of the secretaries helped me buy more in the fashion suits and other clothing, just as she had helped me navigate finding a flat, leasing a car, the paperwork for my residency visa, etc.

Indeed, it has turned a lot of people into nasty pieces of work.

As it has you IMHO. I've read what you've written in this thread.

The fact that people are overly anxious and irrational about this virus doesn't make it harmless or just the flu. I think you aren't anxious enough IMHO. Either position on this is wrong. Being overly anxious is better than being overly relaxed. Fewer people die.

I had the disease and I can tell you that it is not as harmless as the flu. Granted, I am the poster boy for pre-existing conditions. I was near death for a week and my lungs hurt like nothing I had ever felt when I had the flu and pneumonia in the past. I had the disease almost exactly one year ago and I only recovered my sense of smell in November, and I just now am feeling fit, recovered from the disease. Because I have ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease, (or more appropriate for non-Americans, Stephen Hawking's disease or motor neuron disease, MND) I employ a couple of home health care nurses who monitor my health pretty closely, they nursed me through the disease and they agree with me about the long recovery. Because I had such a hard time with the disease my daughter is completely paranoid about it.

It's beyond bizarre that the disease became a political issue in the US. Like climate change, the pandemic was a problem that could only be tackled by a strong and competent central government, which contravenes current conservative dogma, which dictates a small, largely ineffective federal government and competence is something conservatives can't apparently provide when they are running the government. So like they do with the problems resulting from climate change, conservatives chose to ignore, as much possible, the pandemic and the federal government's role in solving the problems created by the pandemic, beyond the problems of the large corporations, of course.
 
View attachment 32051


"It's just a bad flu."

Could you define "Covid death", for the purposes of this graph? Does it include everyone who tested positive before dying? What about people on the verge of death, from other causes, but went over the edge after testing positive. With no particular reason to think that C19 was the primary cause of death?

What does Covid death mean in this particular instance?
Tom
 
I'm wearing a suit, right now!

It's just me and my boss in the head office. We're completely alone here.

We're here because he's moving on to new adventures and I'm going to take over his job.

It just feels weird to be in the office without a suit. I have no rational explanation. If I'm to psychoanalyse myself, it so he should feel better about handing over the keys to the castle to me. Wearing a suit is a way to show that I take the job very seriously.

Indeed, it has turned a lot of people into nasty pieces of work.

As it has you IMHO. I've read what you've written in this thread.

The fact that people are overly anxious and irrational about this virus doesn't make it harmless or just a flu. I think you aren't anxious enough IMHO. Either position on this is wrong. Being overly anxious is better than being overly relaxed. Less people die.

So, on the suit thing... The higher on the ladder I climb, the more I realize that being a manager comes down to perception. To be a manager, people first and foremost have to believe that's who you are, to them. That starts with a presentation of discipline, and a presentation of discipline itself starts with your clothes and grooming.

It says "I put work into this". It says "I can whip myself to look like this every day, don't think I can't figure out to do the same to you, with your workload".

To that end, an office without a suitably attired person in it IS wrong. It fails to deliver the whole message of the dynamic.
 
View attachment 32051


"It's just a bad flu."

Could you define "Covid death", for the purposes of this graph? Does it include everyone who tested positive before dying? What about people on the verge of death, from other causes, but went over the edge after testing positive. With no particular reason to think that C19 was the primary cause of death?
As opposed to the Flu... which typically kills people that are not well? The metric of comparison here is completely legitimate.
 
View attachment 32051


"It's just a bad flu."

Could you define "Covid death", for the purposes of this graph? Does it include everyone who tested positive before dying? What about people on the verge of death, from other causes, but went over the edge after testing positive. With no particular reason to think that C19 was the primary cause of death?

What does Covid death mean in this particular instance?
Tom

See the CDC excess deaths page to see what COVID death actually means.

WeeklyExcessDeaths.png
 
Indeed, it has turned a lot of people into nasty pieces of work.

As it has you IMHO. I've read what you've written in this thread.

Not really, I always was a nasty piece of work. ;)

The fact that people are overly anxious and irrational about this virus doesn't make it harmless or just a flu.

I have never once said that it is harmless. It is fucking deadly to the old and infirm which is where as much as 40%-50% of the fatalities occur. And then it starts to pick off the health compromised, the obese, the diabetics etc. And of course there are the anomalies that people get all worked up about. I know a guy (well, I met him a few times) the same age as me, possibly a few years younger who died and I don't know of any underlying health conditions that would have contributed to that but I suspect there may have been something.

I think you aren't anxious enough IMHO. Either position on this is wrong. Being overly anxious is better than being overly relaxed. Less people die.

The reason I am not anxious is that I understand the risk involved to me and I ignore the fearmongering bullshit that the media pumps out in their clickbait headlines. I'm pretty sure you do too which is why you are not as anxious as your friend but possibly more anxious than me.
 
View attachment 32051


"It's just a bad flu."

Could you define "Covid death", for the purposes of this graph? Does it include everyone who tested positive before dying? What about people on the verge of death, from other causes, but went over the edge after testing positive. With no particular reason to think that C19 was the primary cause of death?

What does Covid death mean in this particular instance?
Tom

Most flu deaths are people on the verge of death being pushed over. It's very unusual for flu to kill a reasonably healthy person. If you don't want to count Covid deaths of people on the edge then you need to ignore most flu deaths also.
 
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