The World-O-Meter Thread

[TV and credit cards]

If folks are nervous about sending their children to school come September, that may turn a few Trump supporters.

 

[lpetrich]

Coronavirus: Vietnam, Slovenia, and 3 other overlooked success stories - Vox - "They all followed a similar playbook that thus far have helped curb a larger coronavirus outbreak."

It seems like some countries have figured out not only how to flatten their coronavirus curves, but also how to send them plunging downward.

From Slovenia to Jordan to Iceland, governments took early action to impose lockdowns, test and trace thousands of people, isolate the sick, encourage social distancing and preventive measures like mask wearing, and communicate honestly with the public.

Those interventions curbed the number of new confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths, allowing leaders to reopen schools and businesses and reintroduce a sense of normalcy into everyday life. Some are now reporting no new confirmed cases or deaths.

In effect, they followed the prescribed playbook for such a pandemic, and — surprise, surprise — it worked.

“At the end of the day, it’s not magic. It’s shoe-leather public health,” Thomas Bollyky, director of the global health program at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, told me. Nothing is a better substitute for speed and aggressive action, he said.

These successes:

• Vietnam stopped a coronavirus outbreak with early and robust action - "Its response has so far proven a success by doing three things: a lot of testing, a lot of contract tracing, and a lot of quarantining."
• Slovenia kept people at home and others away from the country - "Its success mainly stems from an aggressive early lockdown, quarantines of sick people, and generous government spending." - "Quarantines also helped keep confirmed cases low. In early April, most people entering the country — Slovenians and foreigners alike — had to go through a mandatory 14-day quarantine. "
• Jordan made coronavirus plans weeks before it arrived - "Those measures included designating which hospitals would treat infected patients and how, exactly, doctors would take care of them. And the government, at the request of the king, also passed emergency laws to allow the military to enforce a strict lockdown and curfew." - "Jordan’s aggressive measures are finally easing up."
• Iceland is testing, testing, testing - despite having only one major point of entry, Reykjavik's international airport, its officials got to work, now having tested 13% of the population - "People found to be sick or in contact with a sick person were put in isolation until symptoms subsided or didn’t show, keeping the rest of the population safe from a growing spread." - "Iceland was also able to curb the outbreak without completely shutting its economy down or closing all schools — decisions that had many skeptics."
• Greece bolstered its ailing health care system - Despite its potential vulnerability, the nation has only 2,600 confirmed cases and 150 deaths - "Greece achieved this by imposed a stringent lockdown, promoting social distancing, and bolstering its health care sector."

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If folks are nervous about sending their children to school come September, that may turn a few Trump supporters.

I'd actually be quite happy if things haven't gone to hell by September.

 

[Elixir]

I'd actually be quite happy if things haven't gone to hell by September.

+1.
Hearing this morning that Cheato is going to try to withhold emergency funding from "blue" states, I had to wonder how it would play out if New York, California et al decided to withhold funding from Kentucky and Florida...
Could be just what the doctor ordered. Vladimir Putin's doctor, that is.

 

[Elixir]

05-06

Another day, another 25k dead.
We lost almost that many at Normandy, and we got France back for the effort.
Now we lose about that many every day for days on end while the Trump Crime Family runs amok trying to destroy the country that those 2500 at Normandy helped preserve.
It's a truly disgusting situation.

 

[lpetrich]

It's only 2.5K dead, but that's still a lot.

From  Normandy landings (D-Day), the Allies had 160,000 soldiers landing, with around 10,000 casualties and 4,414 known dead.

FACT SHEET: Normandy Landings | whitehouse.gov - "Allied casualties on June 6 have been estimated at 10,000 killed, wounded, and missing in action: 6,603 Americans, 2,700 British, and 946 Canadians."

Assuming the same fraction of casualities that were deaths, I find that some 2,900 Americans died. So what's going on now is nearly a D-Day of deaths per day.

 

[lpetrich]

D-Day Casualties: Total Axis and Allied Numbers - History - "The First U.S. Army, accounting for the first twenty-four hours in Normandy, tabulated 1,465 killed, 1,928 missing, and 6,603 wounded. The after-action report of U.S. VII Corps (ending 1 July) showed 22,119 casualties including 2,811 killed, 5,665 missing, 79 prisoners, and 13,564 wounded, including paratroopers."

 

[Patooka]

The expression "criminally negligent" is a strong phrase that shouldn't be used lightly. And yet it describes this administration's handling of the pandemic perfectly. Seriously, if a captain of an oil tanker caused this much tragedy through sheer incompetence, they'd be looking at a long stretch inside.

 

[Elixir]

The expression "criminally negligent" is a strong phrase that shouldn't be used lightly. And yet it describes this administration's handling of the pandemic perfectly. Seriously, if a captain of an oil tanker caused this much tragedy through sheer incompetence, they'd be looking at a long stretch inside.

I prefer "dereliction of duty" because our AG can handwave away any claim of criminal negligence while his client is sitting in the Whitehouse.

 

[Elixir]

It's only 2.5K dead, but that's still a lot.

From  Normandy landings (D-Day), the Allies had 160,000 soldiers landing, with around 10,000 casualties and 4,414 known dead.

FACT SHEET: Normandy Landings | whitehouse.gov - "Allied casualties on June 6 have been estimated at 10,000 killed, wounded, and missing in action: 6,603 Americans, 2,700 British, and 946 Canadians."

Assuming the same fraction of casualities that were deaths, I find that some 2,900 Americans died. So what's going on now is nearly a D-Day of deaths per day.

I guess decimal points matter. My bad.

The Allied casualties figures for D-Day have generally been estimated at 10,000, including 2500 dead.

So that's all Allied dead. About the same number America alone lost to C-19 yesterday, and has been losing EVERY DAY for about a month.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So I've been watching Georgia and went over to their Department of Health (or whatever it is called) and noticed their chart. It shows the daily Covid confirmations by date. Now, it shows the testing today and yesterday, and the numbers are very low. It notes that there is two week period where the data is up in the air due to confirmation being necessary.

So that made me ponder, just how far out would an increase of cases be detected? You need one to two weeks for symptoms, and then another week for test results?

 

[lpetrich]

Trump Death Clock - "In January 2020, the Trump administration was advised that immediate action was required to stop the spread of COVID-19. According to NIAID Director Dr. Anthony Fauci, “there was a lot of pushback” to this advice. President Trump declined to act until March 16th. Epidemiologists now estimate that, had mitigation measures been implemented one week earlier, 60% of American COVID-19 deaths would have been avoided."

Covid Trends - graph of confirmed cases vs. new cases. It can also do deaths.

 

[lpetrich]

Trump isn’t the only populist leader losing the battle against the coronavirus - The Washington Post - asking why some nations do well and others don't.

Some of the most successful countries in fighting covid-19 are democracies with well-educated populaces, high levels of trust and transparency, and governments that are run by technocrats. They have tested early and often, and they have used contact tracing to isolate carriers. Examples include New Zealand, Australia, the Czech Republic, Germany, South Korea and Taiwan. Some autocracies with scientifically literate leaders, such as Vietnam, Hong Kong and Singapore, have also performed well.

That's why I can trust the numbers coming out of South Korea.

By contrast, governments led by populists, whether elected or not, have generally been much less successful. Populists — who claim to embody the will of the people against the corrupt elites — are suspicious of expert opinion. So they tend to ignore the advice of scientists, preferring “alternative facts” tailored to their own liking. They specialize in dividing the population, so it’s hard for them to unite against a common threat. And even more so than other leaders, they rely on economic growth for legitimacy; hence they are reluctant to suffer short-term economic costs in the interest of public health.

Right-wing populists have another feature. They sometimes run against economic elites, but in office, they then pander to those same elites.

"President" Trump fits perfectly, and the US has been suffering especially badly. Author Max Boot notes that some nations ruled by right-wing populists, like Hungary and Poland, have not been hit as badly as some nations have.

But Belarus has one of Eastern Europe’s highest infection rates because populist strongman Alexander Lukashenko refuses to order a lockdown. He has allowed soccer matches and church services to proceed, and this weekend he plans to hold a military parade to commemorate the Nazis’ defeat, because he doesn’t want anyone to say that “we were scared.”

MB says that "British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is a more erudite and genteel populist than Lukashenko or Trump, but he shares their contempt for facts and their proclivity for lying."

Then Jair Bolsonaro, who seems like a caricature of Trump, himself often seeming like some caricature.

 

[Elixir]

05-07

I don't think we will be holding parades to celebrate the Nazi defeat any time soon. But that has nothing to do with the Trump Virus.
Yesterday's stats... just another D-Day

 

[marc]

Ok, the real reason Trump is making sure the virus keeps going is... he wants to make sure Biden's inauguration crowds look worse than his, with all the social distancing required.


Someone posted on FB "What do you think the over/under for "Americans dead by Jan 1, 2021 by COVID" is?" The way it is going now, I'm guessing around 700k

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There will be no election in November if the bug is out, the GOP is currently seeing to that.

 

[Elixir]

There will be no election in November if the bug is out, the GOP is currently seeing to that.

That would buy them ten weeks or so. Then, terms would run out for a lot of people including Cheato , Mikey and Moscow Mitch, leaving the Dems with a Senate majority and maybe even Leahy as President. Maybe the PINO simply intends to declare himself dictator.

 

[Elixir]

05-08

Today's body count. Now that the official National plan is "Aw, fuck it." we can probably look forward to some dramatic developments in a couple of weeks.

 

[lpetrich]

Australia and New Zealand Are Crushing COVID-19; Will Their Reopening Strategies Work for Other Countries? | Council on Foreign Relations

New Zealand’s prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, declared victory against her country’s coronavirus outbreak last week, stating that “There is no widespread undetected community transmission in New Zealand,” and that COVID-19 had “currently” been eliminated from the country. The country of 5 million people has confirmed around 1,200 cases of COVID-19 and 20 deaths so for, and had no new infections reported diagnosed on Monday this week.

New Zealand ranks among the world's most successful countries in the global fight against the coronavirus, along with Australia, where the daily number of new cases has plummeted from 460 in late March to only 16 last Friday, bringing the total to just over 6,800.

New Zealand has 5 million people, Australia 25 million.

New Zealand Says It Has Won 'Battle' Against COVID-19 : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR

Bloomfield and Ardern said that declaring the virus eliminated did not mean there would be no new cases, but that the numbers would be manageable with the help of aggressive contact tracing, which the prime minister said had been scaled up "significantly" with the capacity to make up to 10,000 calls per day.

New Zealand is now at Level 3 - most but not all businesses may reopen.

Businesses and professions that require face-to-face contact — such as hairdressers, salespeople, masseuses and public gyms — will remain closed until the alert level is reduced another notch, Ardern said.

"Your business must be contactless. Your customers can pay online, over the phone or in a contactless way," she said. "Delivery or pickup must also be contactless."

Commendably cautious, while getting much of the economy going again.

Speaking on Sunday, Australia's home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, suggested that New Zealand and Australia could reopen travel between them even as restrictions on inbound air passengers from other countries remained.

Good that they are considering that.

Covid 19 coronavirus: So we are moving into level 3 - what does that mean for you? - NZ Herald

Can I leave the house?

Jacinda Ardern has said: "Stay home. If you are not at work, school, exercising or getting essentials, then you must be at home, the same as at level 4."

She said you can exercise at parks or beaches within your region, but the closer to home the better. Activities must be safe – keep two metres away from anyone not in your bubble - and make minimal trips.

... How far can I drive?

You can drive "a short distance", but you should still keep it local. (then various exceptions for kinds of travel that are hard to avoid)

... Can I go back to work?

Most, but not all, businesses can start to reopen at alert level 3 but Ardern said if people can work from home, they should.

If that's not possible, staff have to make sure they keep 1m between each other, record who they interact with, have good hygiene practices and make sure surfaces are disinfected.

So industries like construction, forestry and manufacturing can get back to work - as long as they have those safe-practice measures in place.

... Does this mean I can get a takeaway meal?

Yes, you can get your favourite takeaway as long as you can place your order and pick it up without face-to-face contact.

... How about a flat white?

Yes, if your local cafe can facilitate the order through a contactless method, like an app.

Seems very cautious.

 

[lpetrich]

After Containing COVID-19, Can New Zealand and Australia Show How to Reopen?

Both countries followed a familiar playbook, with mass testing of the population and contract tracing. New Zealand also imposed one of the toughest lockdowns in the world early on, before COVID-19 could overwhelm the country. Ardern used daily briefings to offer clear, concise and reassuring guidance to the public. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been similarly straightforward and effective in his public guidance, as his government recognized the global nature of the pandemic and then made massive investments in testing and health care capacity.

As they consider plans to gradually reopen their economies, New Zealand and Australia are being careful not to sacrifice these gains.

Freight is now moving through NZ's ports, but dockworkers must work in small teams separated from each other.

PM JA stated that some 75% of NZ's economy will be reopening.

Yet at the same time, her government is maintaining tough restrictions at the border, allowing almost no foreigners to enter. Officials from Australia and New Zealand are, however, mulling a travel “bubble,” in which people would be able to travel freely between the two countries only.

Australia is delivering a COVID-19 contact tracing app to smartphone users. So far, 5 million people have installed it.

AU and NZ have the nice feature of being surrounded by big moats. That limits choke points to major airports and seaports.

In Europe, North America and across Asia, borders are more porous and will be harder to keep sealed, New Zealand-style, especially since such closures would be economically devastating. Population density in countries in all of those places is also much higher than in New Zealand or Australia. Business groups that would be decimated by long-term border closures are less deferential to government, and will bring their powerful lobbies to bear in Washington and other capitals. A travel bubble, too, would be hard to maintain for larger, more populous and less interlinked countries.

However, some aspects of the New Zealand and Australian approaches—as well as those of other countries that have seen success against the coronavirus, like South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan—should be replicated, at least by states that have the economic resources to do so. Like New Zealand and Australia, countries must obtain the ability to test and then trace new cases, which allows a safer resumption of economic activity.

An important problem is how to get a coordinated response with decentralized governance.

Yet both Ardern and Morrison—who are political opposites, as a progressive and a conservative, respectively—have generally tried to keep their approaches to the virus and to the reopening apolitical. In Australia, a less centralized country than New Zealand, Morrison created a “national Cabinet” in March that includes the prime minister and also the premiers and senior ministers of Australia’s territories and states. Through this new body, Morrison has worked very closely with state premiers to coordinate COVID-19 strategies, including plans for reopening, and had been able to get broad buy-in.

This is something like what some US states have been doing -- western states, Great Lakes states, northeast states each forming an alliance to coordinate their responses to the virus.