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The World-O-Meter Thread

Vanquish the Virus? Australia and New Zealand Aim to Show the Way | The Seattle Times
Whether they get to zero or not, what Australia and New Zealand have already accomplished is a remarkable cause for hope. Scott Morrison of Australia, a conservative Christian, and Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand’s darling of the left, are both succeeding with throwback democracy — in which partisanship recedes, experts lead, and quiet coordination matters more than firing up the base.

“This is certainly distinct from the United States,” said Dr. Peter Collignon, a physician and professor of microbiology at the Australian National University who has worked for the World Health Organization. “Here it’s not a time for politics. This is a time for looking at the data and saying let’s do what makes the most sense.”
Jacinda Ardern was raised a Mormon, but she departed from that sect because of differences in beliefs, and she now identifies as agnostic.

Can this success last?
And it may end up being a mirage or temporary triumph in Australia and New Zealand. Elimination means reducing infections to zero in a geographic area with continued measures to control any new outbreak, and that may require extended travel bans. Other places that seemed to be keeping the virus at bay, such as China, Hong Kong and Singapore, have seen it rebound, usually with infections imported from overseas.

...
Playing their own versions of explainer in chief, Morrison has veered toward conservative radio, while Ardern prefers Facebook Live. But they’ve both received praise from scientists for listening and adapting to evidence.
Good job.
 
I live in Western Australia and we've had almost zero new cases for the last week. I feel very fortunate to live here and I expect things will start re-opening soon although working from home I don't expect to change for me until at least July/August. Even then my company wont go back to 5 days in the office on a permanent basis. I'd say 3 days in 2 days out.
 
Alec MacGillis on Twitter: "Hard to overstate how much Germany has surpassed just about everyone. It has a quarter of the deaths of other major European countries despite having the largest population by far; its schools are now reopening; and 80 percent of its factories stayed open. [url]https://t.co/XIf82djDCy https://t.co/lwuuCZJpbg" / Twitter[/url]
noting
How Germany Kept Its Factories Open During the Pandemic - WSJ - "Strict safety rules, testing and contact tracing enabled plants to keep running without major outbreaks"

From a scan of a print article: "Social distancing, ubiquitous face masks, in-house Covid-19 tests and contact-tracing when employees fell ill helped the company keep its plants open. Just 15 of its 6,700 employees in Germany have contracted the virus, the company said."

Alec MacGillis on Twitter: "They're even letting visitors back into hospitals and nursing homes, and Premier League soccer games will start up later in the month. https://t.co/pNaG6Bi5WZ" / Twitter
noting
Germany to Reopen Most of Economy in Coming Weeks as Coronavirus Recedes - WSJ - "But health rules mean full normality is still far off and mechanism would trigger new closures if infections rise again"

Alec MacGillis on Twitter: ""Germany’s progress demonstrated that a combination of cautious, science-led political leadership and a regime of widespread testing, tracing and social distancing could allow countries to manage a controlled reopening." https://t.co/7PLpoMnHYr" / Twitter
noting
Germany’s Reopening Offers Hope for a Semblance of Normal Life - The New York Times - "Europe’s largest democracy is now confident enough to lift most restrictions on businesses and schools."
On Wednesday, Chancellor Angela Merkel had a hopeful message for the nation: The experiment was working.

The infection numbers, Ms. Merkel announced, were not just stable but lower than those reported two weeks ago. “We have reached the goal of slowing the spread of the virus, of protecting our health care system from being overwhelmed,” the chancellor said at a news conference.

Germany, she said, was now in a position to reopen most aspects of its economy and society. “We can afford a little audacity,” Ms. Merkel said.

...
Germany’s progress demonstrated that a combination of cautious, science-led political leadership and a regime of widespread testing, tracing and social distancing could allow countries to manage a controlled reopening.

...
Face masks, already mandatory in shops and public transport across Germany, are fast becoming the new normal, seen everywhere from street protests to shop-window mannequins.

...
Socializing, even at restaurants and bars now allowed to reopen, will be limited to two households, six feet apart.

...
All shops will be allowed to reopen. Restaurants and hotels can resume in time for two long holiday weekends at the end of May.

All school children will see a classroom again before the summer holidays. Day care centers will start taking children next week, focusing on families most in need. Residents in nursing and care homes can receive visits from one person.

...
Ms. Merkel struck a characteristically sober tone on Wednesday, warning that the freedoms could be quickly squandered by irresponsible behavior.

...
Schools are scrambling to halve class sizes, stagger the start and end of classes, and enforce rigorous hygiene rules. Many shops have put disinfectant at the door, plexiglass at the cashier and floor markings to control customer queues.

One area with no reopening in sight for now is large public event space. Concerts, spectator sporting events and festivals are banned until at least Aug. 31.
Very commendably cautious. A sort of partial opening up, like what NZ is doing. A big problem that Germany has is the ease of visiting that nation by inhabitants of neighboring ones. Germany isn't surrounded by a big moat, unlike Australia and New Zealand and Taiwan and South Korea. Not completely surrounded for SK, but its border with North Korea is effectively sealed off.
 
After Containing COVID-19, Can New Zealand and Australia Show How to Reopen?

Freight is now moving through NZ's ports, but dockworkers must work in small teams separated from each other.

PM JA stated that some 75% of NZ's economy will be reopening.

Australia is delivering a COVID-19 contact tracing app to smartphone users. So far, 5 million people have installed it.

AU and NZ have the nice feature of being surrounded by big moats. That limits choke points to major airports and seaports.
In Europe, North America and across Asia, borders are more porous and will be harder to keep sealed, New Zealand-style, especially since such closures would be economically devastating. Population density in countries in all of those places is also much higher than in New Zealand or Australia. Business groups that would be decimated by long-term border closures are less deferential to government, and will bring their powerful lobbies to bear in Washington and other capitals. A travel bubble, too, would be hard to maintain for larger, more populous and less interlinked countries.

However, some aspects of the New Zealand and Australian approaches—as well as those of other countries that have seen success against the coronavirus, like South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan—should be replicated, at least by states that have the economic resources to do so. Like New Zealand and Australia, countries must obtain the ability to test and then trace new cases, which allows a safer resumption of economic activity.
An important problem is how to get a coordinated response with decentralized governance.
Yet both Ardern and Morrison—who are political opposites, as a progressive and a conservative, respectively—have generally tried to keep their approaches to the virus and to the reopening apolitical. In Australia, a less centralized country than New Zealand, Morrison created a “national Cabinet” in March that includes the prime minister and also the premiers and senior ministers of Australia’s territories and states. Through this new body, Morrison has worked very closely with state premiers to coordinate COVID-19 strategies, including plans for reopening, and had been able to get broad buy-in.
This is something like what some US states have been doing -- western states, Great Lakes states, northeast states each forming an alliance to coordinate their responses to the virus.

Scotty from marketing might like to give the impression that he invented CHOGM, but actually it's been a thing for a very long time.

We have six states and a number of territories (how many territories depends on your criteria; We have two mainland territories (NT and ACT), unless you include Jervis Bay, which is administratively part of the ACT, but not contiguous with it); Then there's a whole bunch of offshore territories like the Coral Sea, Norfolk Island, Christmas Island, the Cocos Islands, etc...

Each state has its own rules for quarantine; Here in Queensland, we have closed the borders to all but 'essential' traffic, to defend ourselves against the disease raddled New South Wales, but within the state we are still seeing a couple of new cases a day.

We're doing well, for now. But we could easily go back to exponential growth.

The second wave will be much larger than the first.
 
After Containing COVID-19, Can New Zealand and Australia Show How to Reopen?

Freight is now moving through NZ's ports, but dockworkers must work in small teams separated from each other.

PM JA stated that some 75% of NZ's economy will be reopening.

Australia is delivering a COVID-19 contact tracing app to smartphone users. So far, 5 million people have installed it.

AU and NZ have the nice feature of being surrounded by big moats. That limits choke points to major airports and seaports.

An important problem is how to get a coordinated response with decentralized governance.

This is something like what some US states have been doing -- western states, Great Lakes states, northeast states each forming an alliance to coordinate their responses to the virus.

Scotty from marketing might like to give the impression that he invented CHOGM, but actually it's been a thing for a very long time.

We have six states and a number of territories (how many territories depends on your criteria; We have two mainland territories (NT and ACT), unless you include Jervis Bay, which is administratively part of the ACT, but not contiguous with it); Then there's a whole bunch of offshore territories like the Coral Sea, Norfolk Island, Christmas Island, the Cocos Islands, etc...

Each state has its own rules for quarantine; Here in Queensland, we have closed the borders to all but 'essential' traffic, to defend ourselves against the disease raddled New South Wales, but within the state we are still seeing a couple of new cases a day.

We're doing well, for now. But we could easily go back to exponential growth.

The second wave will be much larger than the first.

Yes the second wave will be larger and a bigger test for us all and government. Sco Mo talks about 4 weeks for phase 2 but i think that will be a lot longer.
 
05-09

Rattled?
I'm rattled by the thought that if there was not one single new COVID-19 case in the US starting right now, we would expect another quarter to a third of a million more fatalities if the recovery/death ratio doesn't change.
And there will be more new cases.

WM05-09.JPG
 
Anyone else see anything fishy about this reporting?
This is from 5:50pm Eastern time.
(Hint: GA reported a total of TWO deaths yesterday)

FLTXGA.JPG
 
Reporting accuracy on the weekend leaves a lot to be desired. I wouldn't attach any importance to this.

FIFY

Yeah, it's probably just a coincidence that the exact three States whose mortality reporting I earlier called suspect, are showing a fifth or an eighth of the new deaths reported by the blue and purple States with around the same overall case numbers.

Seriously, Loren - GA, TX and FL are run by brazen and proud cheaters in the Trump model. If they can turn deaths into a political tool they're going to do that.
The Governors do authoritarian back-flips to make Trump favor them. If they can keep all the bad news coming on Mondays or better yet delay it for months, that's great. Maybe a bunch of records can even get lost in the pandemic confusion caused by the Democrats.
Anyhow, more reg'lar people probably look at realtime stats on the weekend than weekdays, even in a pandemic. If that is the case, those Governors know it and can make points with Jabba the President, telling him how good they made his "re-open" look by timing the release of data (assuming they don't "lose" it altogether).
 
Anyone else see anything fishy about this reporting?
This is from 5:50pm Eastern time.
(Hint: GA reported a total of TWO deaths yesterday)

Do some counties/municipalities not report on the weekend?

2 is very very very low, even on a weekend.

ETA: It is 4 now. But more interesting is the 900+ new cases on a Sunday! But there data seems to come out in spurts and takes a few days to get trends. We’ll see if Georgia is predictably going up with cases after opening things up more.
 
Anyone else see anything fishy about this reporting?
This is from 5:50pm Eastern time.
(Hint: GA reported a total of TWO deaths yesterday)

Do some counties/municipalities not report on the weekend?

2 is very very very low, even on a weekend.

Yes, this booming economy is fantastic, isn't it? Thank you for getting this pandemic under control President Trump! I know Obama could never have done that! 'member how he botched the H1N1 epidemic?
 
05-10

Here's the daily global snapshot. Nothing new from FL, GA and TX, btw.

WM05-10.JPG
 
Reporting accuracy on the weekend leaves a lot to be desired. I wouldn't attach any importance to this.

FIFY

Yeah, it's probably just a coincidence that the exact three States whose mortality reporting I earlier called suspect, are showing a fifth or an eighth of the new deaths reported by the blue and purple States with around the same overall case numbers.

Seriously, Loren - GA, TX and FL are run by brazen and proud cheaters in the Trump model. If they can turn deaths into a political tool they're going to do that.
The Governors do authoritarian back-flips to make Trump favor them. If they can keep all the bad news coming on Mondays or better yet delay it for months, that's great. Maybe a bunch of records can even get lost in the pandemic confusion caused by the Democrats.
Anyhow, more reg'lar people probably look at realtime stats on the weekend than weekdays, even in a pandemic. If that is the case, those Governors know it and can make points with Jabba the President, telling him how good they made his "re-open" look by timing the release of data (assuming they don't "lose" it altogether).

If the trend is still there by Wednesday then it means something. I just don't jump to assuming malice.
 
Mondays seem to be the new Sunday when it comes to reporting data. 13,000 new cases today, only one state was above 1,000... and it's not the one you think. New York under 600.
 
I just don't jump to assuming malice.

I don't jump to assuming malice beyond ambient levels. :)
Politicians trying to gain favor from Trump by kissing his ass isn't assumed malice, it's a fact of life in USA 2020.
I simply noted that timed release/suppression of data is another way for corrupt Republican governors to kiss his ass.
 
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