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The World-O-Meter Thread

Help me out here--statistics isn't my strength. But would this be a legitimate method of calculating...well, something?

Take a large, well-defined population base. Say, New York City, and make the two following calculations.

1. Number of Deaths in March 2019 divided by Population in March 2019.

2. Number of Deaths in March 2020 divided by Population in March 2020.

Compare the two figures. Would that be reasonably accurate? Assuming that "Non-COVID-19 Causes of Death" (i.e., heart disease, violence, accidents, etc.) remain the same from one year to the next (within a small variation range), then any difference could be called "COVID-19 Cause of Death," couldn't it?

This would account for cases like:
  • People who died in their bed from the virus, but never sought medical help.
  • People who died in car accidents as they were driving to the hospital due to shortness of breath (brought on by COVID-19).
  • Others that I haven't thought of, but deaths that we can blame on COVID-19 without testing corpses for antibodies.
 
marc said:
Is there a way on that worldometers site to see earlier breakdowns? They have a breakdown by state, and just saw that Georgia had over 900 new cases today, with 613 yesterday. Wouldn't mind seeing the trend over the past week, and the next week without having to screen grab the chart every day.
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Yes. There are charts for deaths and cases for each state. Not all at the worldometers site...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavirus-cases.amp.html
 
James Brown said:
Help me out here--statistics isn't my strength. But would this be a legitimate method of calculating...well, something?

Take a large, well-defined population base. Say, New York City, and make the two following calculations.

1. Number of Deaths in March 2019 divided by Population in March 2019.

2. Number of Deaths in March 2020 divided by Population in March 2020.

Compare the two figures. Would that be reasonably accurate? Assuming that "Non-COVID-19 Causes of Death" (i.e., heart disease, violence, accidents, etc.) remain the same from one year to the next (within a small variation range), then any difference could be called "COVID-19 Cause of Death," couldn't it?

This would account for cases like:
  • People who died in their bed from the virus, but never sought medical help.
  • People who died in car accidents as they were driving to the hospital due to shortness of breath (brought on by COVID-19).
  • Others that I haven't thought of, but deaths that we can blame on COVID-19 without testing corpses for antibodies.
Click to expand...

That general approach is useful, but would provide a low under-estimate of COVID deaths. April 2020 will have fewer non-Covid deaths than April 2019. That's because the lockdown itself reduces most causes of death. It massively reduces automobile deaths, workplace accidents, and almost type of accidental deaths. Home accidents tend to be less lethal. Lockdown is also reducing violent crime, deaths from normal flu and other contagions, and even things like heart attacks and strokes triggered by physical exertion.
 
I've been paying most attention to the flux in "serious, critical" cases, which seems to be a shorter term predictor of deaths than new cases.

Interesting that the source links for each State on the W-O-M site show all the daily graphs for my State (CO) but no such thing for GA. A few raw stats in text, but nothing to be learned from a glance. Looks almost like they don't want Georgians to see this:

GA_deaths.jpg
 
Mayday, Mayday...
Murka still cranking 100,000 new cases every three days. :(

WM05-01.JPG
 
Elixir said:
I've been paying most attention to the flux in "serious, critical" cases, which seems to be a shorter term predictor of deaths than new cases.

Interesting that the source links for each State on the W-O-M site show all the daily graphs for my State (CO) but no such thing for GA. A few raw stats in text, but nothing to be learned from a glance. Looks almost like they don't want Georgians to see this:

View attachment 27455
Click to expand...
Those spikes are very likely Mondays and a catch up with with the weekend.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Elixir said:
I've been paying most attention to the flux in "serious, critical" cases, which seems to be a shorter term predictor of deaths than new cases.

Interesting that the source links for each State on the W-O-M site show all the daily graphs for my State (CO) but no such thing for GA. A few raw stats in text, but nothing to be learned from a glance. Looks almost like they don't want Georgians to see this:

View attachment 27455
Click to expand...
Those spikes are very likely Mondays and a catch up with with the weekend.
Click to expand...

The 7 day average probably paints a more accurate picture, but let's face it; no Republican Governor wants actual information on infections and deaths to get out if they can prevent it. And to varying extents, they can prevent it and they are preventing it.

The true picture of what is happening is being obscured by the TCFA and its co-conspirators as usual. But at least the big picture is finally being publicly acknowledged by the epidemiology community.
This thing isn't going away. Not by Easter 2020, and not by Easter 2021. Anyone who says otherwise is thoroughly deluded or a liar or both.
In order for the (R) re-infection rate to drop below 1 (which it must do in order for the epidemic to fade) at least 2/3 of the population will have to be exposed, and antibodies will have to confer a year or more of immunity. And that is not even assured.

Trump's bungling of the situation is certainly a terrible crime against humanity and responsible for tens of thousands of incremental deaths, but even if it had been handled optimally in the US we would still have had to endure lockdowns and a lot of people would have died. The main difference is that we would already be in a relatively safe situation to start easing restrictions, rather than the current situation which is very likely to result in another major surge before election day. So their irresponsibility is coming home to roost as a destroyed economy.

Stupid is as stupid does, and we have a major case of STUPID in this administration. Or possibly they just see this pandemic as an opportunity to trade more American lives for a chance to loot the treasury - which is what they are doing.
 
A better day statistically. Make of it what you will.

WM05-03.JPG
 
Actually, Saturday numbers were somewhat shockingly high. Hard to tell if they are more accurate numbers than usual or an indication of bumps in cases.

Looking at Tennessee is worrisome as while the number of tests is at a high, it is a plateau'd high, where as the number of new cases has increased notably, Fri/Sat/Sun were higher than any day before the pandemic started, also a week since reopening.
 
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bilby said:
Sunday reporting?
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Prob'ly.

Jimmy Higgins said:
Actually, Saturday numbers were somewhat shockingly high. Hard to tell if they are more accurate numbers than usual or an indication of bumps in cases.
Click to expand...

Hard to know anything about US stats any more. All the red states are trying to prevent reporting of cases and deaths.
 
Exclusive: Internal Chinese report warns Beijing faces Tiananmen-like global backlash over virus - Reuters
An internal Chinese report warns that Beijing faces a rising wave of hostility in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak that could tip relations with the United States into confrontation, people familiar with the paper told Reuters.

...
As a result, Beijing faces a wave of anti-China sentiment led by the United States in the aftermath of the pandemic and needs to be prepared in a worst-case scenario for armed confrontation between the two global powers, according to people familiar with the report’s content, who declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter.
Click to expand...
What do they expect? They tried to cover it up, but when they decided to stop, the virus had escaped from not only Wuhan, but also the rest of China.
 
OTOH, when this first hit China was copping abuse for interfering with the mobility of Westerners when they tried to require people not to leave Wuhan.
 
Politesse said:
No place with the virus can be expected not to be blamed for it by their neighbors.
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Yeah. It's pretty silly - pandemics are natural disasters, so blaming the nation in which they first arise is pointless and counterproductive.

The Thai government might as well blame Indonesia for the Boxing Day tsunami.
 
lpetrich said:
Exclusive: Internal Chinese report warns Beijing faces Tiananmen-like global backlash over virus - Reuters
An internal Chinese report warns that Beijing faces a rising wave of hostility in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak that could tip relations with the United States into confrontation, people familiar with the paper told Reuters.

...
As a result, Beijing faces a wave of anti-China sentiment led by the United States in the aftermath of the pandemic and needs to be prepared in a worst-case scenario for armed confrontation between the two global powers, according to people familiar with the report’s content, who declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter.
Click to expand...
What do they expect? They tried to cover it up, but when they decided to stop, the virus had escaped from not only Wuhan, but also the rest of China.
Click to expand...

Do you propose they should have gone into lockdown and called the WHO at the first unexplained, untypical case of pneumonia? Do you have any idea how many people fall sick (and die) from unclear/unexplained causes every year in e. g. Australia or the US? If we are generous, there may have been 10 days where the Chinese government kind of knew what's going on (but still much vaguer that what we know today, and that's still little) and kept their mouth shut to avoid a panic while they scrambled to sort out their response. That's the closest you'll get to "covering it up" without entering conspiracy theory territory.

Meanwhile, many governments around the world had 10 weeks to react even after China "stopped covering it up" and did - nothing. China could be denying everything up to this day and those governments still wouldn't have an excuse for their inaction - they could look at Italy or Iran and come to the same conclusion.

I do find it rather worrying that liberal and left-wing news sources and individuals in a wide range of "Western" countries fall hook, line and sinker for Trump's and others' attempts to shift blame for their own inaction by blaming China. Maybe I am naive, but I would indeed expect them to refrain from taking part in the early stages of war mongering.
 
lpetrich said:
Exclusive: Internal Chinese report warns Beijing faces Tiananmen-like global backlash over virus - Reuters
An internal Chinese report warns that Beijing faces a rising wave of hostility in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak that could tip relations with the United States into confrontation, people familiar with the paper told Reuters.

...
As a result, Beijing faces a wave of anti-China sentiment led by the United States in the aftermath of the pandemic and needs to be prepared in a worst-case scenario for armed confrontation between the two global powers, according to people familiar with the report’s content, who declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter.
Click to expand...
What do they expect? They tried to cover it up, but when they decided to stop, the virus had escaped from not only Wuhan, but also the rest of China.
Click to expand...

We have cases from early January in the US. We have a case from late December in France. Dr. Li's warning was December 30. The cat was already out of the bag before anyone noticed.
 
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