The World-O-Meter Thread

[Elixir]

Here's some more bad news, the false negative rate is far higher than imagined, with 67% false negatives for those infected in the prior 4 days, 38% false negative for those already symptomatic within the first 5 days, and 20% for those infected 8 days ago and 3 days into symptoms.

Not only does that mean deflated numbers b/c people are getting negatives and some not getting tested again, but it means people are getting what they are taking as a "all clear" sign and going out infected while assuming they are not.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200610094112.htm

The silver lining: Maybe Trump is infected and doesn't know it (yet).

 

[Elixir]

Whistling in the dark is a well known means of self delusion.

You are the deluded one.

Coming from someone clutching his happy talk, that's a meaningless ad hom.
It's very true that happy talk sometimes helps preserve the sanity of the whistler, and I truly do with you good luck with that.
Calling it "reasonable" is not a sign that you're correct.

the proof of the pudding is in the eating. We shall know soon enough who is right.

No argument there! I sincerely hope you are right, and new cases begin to decline in a week or two, and continue to do so until "it disappears". (sound familiar?)

 

[Derec]

Coming from someone clutching his happy talk, that's a meaningless ad hom.

You started it. And, unlike you, I provided detailed reasoning as to why I think the new cases will start going down soon. You have provided nothing but name calling!

It's very true that happy talk sometimes helps preserve the sanity of the whistler, and I truly do with you good luck with that.

Calling it "reasonable" is not a sign that you're correct.

Note that you have not provided any actual reasoning trying to refute my reasoning.
All you have is claiming that my position is like that of Trump. The "reasonable" adjective was meant to distinguish Trumpian bloviations from my predictions.

No argument there! I sincerely hope you are right, and new cases begin to decline in a week or two,

I don't think you do. Not really. I think you are emotionally invested in the doom and gloom, at least until Biden takes over in January.
That said, I also think you have a subconscious fear that if the pandemic is perceived to be beaten by November, Trump may eek out a victory. Fear not. Trump is far worse off than in 2016, and Biden is not as weak as Hillary the (Sniper) Bullet Dodger.

and continue to do so until "it disappears". (sound familiar?)

Obviously, it will disappear eventually. It just won't be very fast. But a downward slope is far better than an upward slope!

And by the way, the graph already looks to be bending my way:

 

[Elixir]

You started it.

Cry me a river.

Note that you have not provided any actual reasoning trying to refute my reasoning.

Again - Calling it "reasoning" is not a sign that you're correct. I started this thread with NOTHING BUT statistics. Now, those statistics are useless, have probably been radically under-reporting for months and are now being filtered through Donald Trump's minions. Of course they're going to show a decline in cases, deaths and anything else to which this administration wishes to turn a blind eye.

The "reasonable" adjective was meant to distinguish Trumpian bloviations from my predictions.

Sorry, but tagging yourself with "reasonable" doesn't do the trick. You have to actually exhibit some reasoning, not vacuous predictions.

No argument there! I sincerely hope you are right, and new cases begin to decline in a week or two

I don't think you do. Not really. I think you are emotionally invested in the doom and gloom, at least until Biden takes over in January.

If gloom and doom would bring back Democracy, you would be right - that would be a very worthwhile tradeoff. But it would be Trump-level stoopid to think that destroying the Country would have that effect.

I also think you have a subconscious fear that if the pandemic is perceived to be beaten by November, Trump may eek out a victory.

The word is "eke". And there's nothing subconscious about my fear. And it is not that Cheato will get more votes or somehow steal enough electoral votes.
Pay attention, Derec:
As I have stated, any "peak" that occurs in the next week or few will, absent some national lockdown - or at least an emphatically iterated national policy of suppression - be the back end of the first wave, and it will get much worse in coming months. I predict that form will hold - as soon as there is indication of a reduction from the peak of deaths (yet to come*) and new cases (already starting), this administration will be unable to resist declaring victory over the Trump Virus and will start crowing and forcing things open - again. These guys don't learn.
None of which will matter to the Trump faithful who, if they survive, will be touting Trump's fantastic leadership and unprecedented genius in defeating the Trump Virus even as it ravages and kills record numbers, in the true tradition of the Black Knight.

Do you also share Jason's opinion that if Joe Biden ekes out a victory, Donald Trump will graciously concede? What if it is an electoral victory decided by 2-3 states?
Personally I think that anything less than a total rout will result in a coup attempt by The Donald, his AG toadie and Senate enablers.

* current "serious/critical" US cases are at record levels right now - 19,165. This number has been reliable predictor of deaths.

 

[James Brown]

Daily COVID-19 Death Tolls.
Per Million, 7-Day Rolling Average

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.



As Paul Krugman put it two weeks ago, America is failing the Marshmallow Test.

Why are we failing the test? It’s easy to blame Donald Trump, a man-child who would surely gobble down that first marshmallow, then try to steal marshmallows from other kids. But America’s impatience, its unwillingness to do what it takes to deal with a threat that can’t be beaten with threats of violence, runs much deeper than one man....

America in 2020, it seems, is too disunited, with too many people in the grip of ideology and partisanship, to deal effectively with a pandemic. We have the knowledge, we have the resources, but we don’t have the will.

 

[Keith&Co.]

Americans are selfish. And not just 'i took the last two pieces of cake'-selfish, but 'i would unplug your life support to charge my phone'-selfish.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Americans are selfish. And not just 'i took the last two pieces of cake'-selfish, but 'i would unplug your life support to charge my phone'-selfish.

To top off my phone.

 

[Derec]

Cry me a river.

Just pointing out the facts.

Again - Calling it "reasoning" is not a sign that you're correct.

I have outlined my reasoning in some detail in post #552. You have offered no attempt at a refutation of anything I wrote there.

Of course they're going to show a decline in cases, deaths and anything else to which this administration wishes to turn a blind eye.

Ah yes. If the numbers do not show the "sky is falling" narrative you want, blame the numbers!

Sorry, but tagging yourself with "reasonable" doesn't do the trick. You have to actually exhibit some reasoning, not vacuous predictions.

I have. Especially in post #552. You have not dealt with anything I wrote there.

If gloom and doom would bring back Democracy, you would be right - that would be a very worthwhile tradeoff. But it would be Trump-level stoopid to think that destroying the Country would have that effect.

What do you mean, "bring back"?

The word is "eke". And there's nothing subconscious about my fear. And it is not that Cheato will get more votes or somehow steal enough electoral votes.

It's a typo - big deal! Anyway, if Trump wins, it doesn't mean he "stole the election". If Biden wins, it doesn't man "he stole the election".
It's getting fucking ridiculous!

Pay attention, Derec:
As I have stated, any "peak" that occurs in the next week or few will, absent some national lockdown - or at least an emphatically iterated national policy of suppression - be the back end of the first wave, and it will get much worse in coming months.

What reason do you have to think that it will be "much worse in the coming months"?
Most people will not, even in a few months, start behaving normally like they did in February before wave 1a hit. Strike one for your predicted "much worse" wave two.
Wave 1a and to a lesser extent 1b (which is focused mostly in areas not affected much by 1a which focused on the North East) hit a immunologically naive population. By now, a significant fraction of the population, especially the ones most likely to be exposed, has some immunity to the virus. That will slow any 2nd wave considerably. I elaborated more about that in #552. Strike two.
Medical professionals now know much more about the disease and how to treat it than in March/April. In a few months, they will know even more. Furthermore, therapies such as monoclonal antibodies may be available in a couple of months. While this will not affect the spread, it will affect the outcomes. Strike three for the "much worse" 2nd wave. You're out!

I predict that form will hold - as soon as there is indication of a reduction from the peak of deaths (yet to come*) and new cases (already starting),

At least you recognize that now. Not so long ago you thought this was "happy talk" ...

this administration will be unable to resist declaring victory over the Trump Virus and will start crowing and forcing things open - again. These guys don't learn.

It's really up to governors. But even Democratic governors like Newsom are tempted to open their economies because you can't really keep the economy shuttered for months.

None of which will matter to the Trump faithful who, if they survive, will be touting Trump's fantastic leadership and unprecedented genius in defeating the Trump Virus even as it ravages and kills record numbers, in the true tradition of the Black Knight.

Trump's leadership on COVID has been atrocious, we agree there. That doesn't mean that there will be this "much worse" wave 2.
If you have reasons to think that there will be one, state them, but I don't see it for the reasons I stated above.

Do you also share Jason's opinion that if Joe Biden ekes out a victory, Donald Trump will graciously concede? What if it is an electoral victory decided by 2-3 states?

If you have a 2-3 state margin of victory in the EC and those states are themselves close, I do not see neither Trump nor Biden conceding too quickly without exploring all options for challenges.
As far as rabid supporters who would engage in violence, both sides have those. Do you really think the crazy leftists and Antifas would not riot 100x worse than they are rioting now in Portland and Seattle if Trump were to eke out a victory?

* current "serious/critical" US cases are at record levels right now - 19,165. This number has been reliable predictor of deaths.

Yeah, deaths trail cases by several weeks. But note that 1a peaked (7 day average) at ~32.5k cases and ~2.2k deaths. 1b seems to be peaking at ~70k cases. That would mean ~4.7k daily deaths at peak all things being equal. But currently we are still <1k/day and I do not see it climb anywhere close to 4k. Why? I would say a combination of more tests, confirming more asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases and better treatments lowering death rate. Both are good news. Or bad news for Team Doom and Gloom.

 

[Elixir]

At least you recognize that now. Not so long ago you thought this was "happy talk" ...

I never said there wouldn't be a "peak" to the summer surge. (It is yet not evident that a peak will occur in the next week or two, but it might.)
Your happy talk is that there won't be another resurgence after the peak you predict - Trump's ineptitude notwithstanding.
At least you seem to be admitting that now.

this administration will be unable to resist declaring victory over the Trump Virus and will start crowing and forcing things open - again. These guys don't learn.

It's really up to governors.

Lolol! It has ALWAYS been "up to the governors" since Trump abdicated all responsibility in early March. Now you think that doing the same thing over and again is going to yield a different result. That is the definition of insanity.
It might as well be "up to the individual" as Trump says. And THAT is a recipe for the indefinite persistence of the Trump Virus. Absent a national policy of suppression that consists of actual orders, this is going to continue well into next year - with or without the much-ballyhooed vaccines. There will be recurrent surges and declines as long as there is no uniform national policy - at least for mitigation if not suppression.

I'm sick of explaining these things to you Derec. Carry on with your happy talk.

 

[Elixir]

Following a record number on July 24th, we have had two days of decreasing new cases reported. The reported number for 7/26 is the lowest daily new case number since July 7.
Is this the vaunted "peak" of the summer surge? Maybe.
It might be wise to note however, that we had two days of decreasing new case reports following the records set on June 26, July 3rd, July 10th and July 17th. I think we can call it a peak if the July 31 number is significantly below the July 24 number and the 8/7 number is lower still. If the reports are close despite the Trump administration's fiddling with the numbers, we are probably still on the increase.
But true to form, the Republitards are not waiting to see, and are pushing to re-open everything from bars to schools in the foolish expectation that the economy will improve no matter how many people get seriously ill or die.
We are already at 150,000 known deaths not counting those who died at home from the Trump Virus without ever being diagnosed. That's 150,000 families and millions of friends grieving, wreaking absolute havoc with Trump's approval ratings. And these shortsighted morons don't think it can get any worse.
Hold my beer.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It wasn't really a summer surge, it was a 'the south (and parts of California) dun fuct up and reopened against CDC protocol at the President's urging' surge. They pulled it back, but there is also the issue of the positive test rate percentage indicating a decent number of people aren't being counted.

So now we are at a point where the idea of slowly reopening is effectively eliminated, in large part because of idiots, assholes, and narcissists (from both sides and a boatload of non-partisans) that decided they had a right to party and mingle. We had a chance to squash it. Well, the TSwizzles and Covid-19 won out. Congrats. Now we are stuck until we find a vaccine... and wait for more excuses from the right-wing as to why "All Lives Don't Matter... when I want to go out drinking".

 

[Elixir]

It wasn't really a summer surge, it was a 'the south (and parts of California) dun fuct up and reopened against CDC protocol at the President's urging' surge. They pulled it back, but there is also the issue of the positive test rate percentage indicating a decent number of people aren't being counted.

So now we are at a point where the idea of slowly reopening is effectively eliminated, in large part because of idiots, assholes, and narcissists (from both sides and a boatload of non-partisans) that decided they had a right to party and mingle. We had a chance to squash it. Well, the TSwizzles and Covid-19 won out. Congrats. Now we are stuck until we find a vaccine... and wait for more excuses from the right-wing as to why "All Lives Don't Matter... when I want to go out drinking".

That's right. And in the long run maybe it's okay. It will certainly hasten the day when so many people have been exposed and are producing antibodies, that new cases fall below critical and C-19 starts to "magically disappear". But the intransigence of trumpsucking anti-maskers could still put us in a world of hurt by overwhelming public healthcare systems to the point where people are experiencing unnecessarily terrible outcomes for conditions other than C-19 infection. (Actually it's already happening, but it can get a lot worse.)

 

[Derec]

That's right. And in the long run maybe it's okay. It will certainly hasten the day when so many people have been exposed and are producing antibodies, that new cases fall below critical and C-19 starts to "magically disappear".

And we can see that happening in the North East. Their wave (1a) was so bad locally that there is significant immunity in the population. COVID did not "magically disappear" but new infections have stabilized at a rather low level of 30-100 daily cases per million for about 6 weeks now. If the rest of the country that is experiencing the 1b peak right now can simmer down to a similar low level over the next few weeks, I'd say that would be far from "magical disappearance" but still very good news.

But the intransigence of trumpsucking anti-maskers could still put us in a world of hurt by overwhelming public healthcare systems to the point where people are experiencing unnecessarily terrible outcomes for conditions other than C-19 infection. (Actually it's already happening, but it can get a lot worse.)

There are some localized shortages of ICU beds and the like, but nothing even remotely like what we've seen in NY in April or (even worse) in Italy in March/April.

 

[Derec]

It wasn't really a summer surge, it was a 'the south (and parts of California) dun fuct up and reopened against CDC protocol at the President's urging' surge.

I think Georgia, Florida etc. reopened way too soon. But the 1b wave hit California too, and Newsom is not a western version of DeSantis exactly.
And 1b also hit pretty much everywhere except the Northeast where the 1a led to partial herd immunity. CA, TX and FL are also the three most populous states so an outbreak there will translate into high overall numbers.

That said, summer probably played a role. While the virus doesn't spread that well outside when it's hot and sunny (heat and UV both degrade viral proteins and RNA) people also flee indoors when the temperatures go up too much and indoor gatherings are about the worst thing if you want to contain viral spread. Because of that, I would much rather risk spending a few hours at a a beach than to have dinner at a restaurant for 30 minutes.

They pulled it back, but there is also the issue of the positive test rate percentage indicating a decent number of people aren't being counted.

That is true. Official numbers for US is ~4.5 million infected, but the true number is probably around 20-25 million.

So now we are at a point where the idea of slowly reopening is effectively eliminated, in large part because of idiots, assholes, and narcissists (from both sides and a boatload of non-partisans) that decided they had a right to party and mingle. We had a chance to squash it.

I think it was bilby who proposed a shutdown until Christmas at the very least. That was never a viable option - not economically or psychologically. That said, Ga and others should have waited longer. Kemp should have delayed reopening another month and I do not think indoor dining and bars should have been allowed even now. And don't get me started on the virus spreading facilities that are the gyms! But it is what it is.

 

[Derec]

Following a record number on July 24th, we have had two days of decreasing new cases reported. The reported number for 7/26 is the lowest daily new case number since July 7.
Is this the vaunted "peak" of the summer surge? Maybe.

It certainly looks like it.

It might be wise to note however, that we had two days of decreasing new case reports following the records set on June 26, July 3rd, July 10th and July 17th.

Individual days are subject to a lot of fluctuation. Best to look at the 7 day running average. And that average has really started bending, something that hasn't happened before. So yes, unless we get a double peak, this is it.

But true to form, the Republitards are not waiting to see, and are pushing to re-open everything from bars to schools in the foolish expectation that the economy will improve no matter how many people get seriously ill or die.

Around here, most school systems are staying closed. Good decision, at least for a while. They can always reassess for September and failing that October.

And these shortsighted morons don't think it can get any worse.

It CAN always get worse, but I doubt it will.

 

[Derec]

I never said there wouldn't be a "peak" to the summer surge. (It is yet not evident that a peak will occur in the next week or two, but it might.)

You called my prediction "happy talk" ...

Your happy talk is that there won't be another resurgence after the peak you predict - Trump's ineptitude notwithstanding.

I don't think I said that - can you quote me?

At least you seem to be admitting that now.

Admitting to what? A 2nd wave may or may not happen. It is not a given that it will, or that it will be worse than the first one. Just because the Spanish Flu took that trajectory means nothing for the current pandemic.

Lolol! It has ALWAYS been "up to the governors" since Trump abdicated all responsibility in early March. Now you think that doing the same thing over and again is going to yield a different result. That is the definition of insanity.

While Trump could and should have done a much better job, it is really the responsibility of governors and local officials to implement things like shelter-in-place orders and business closures.
And no, that is not the definition of insanity. And we are not in the same boat as at the beginning of the pandemic, so it's reasonable to expect a different outcome. We have partial herd immunity. We have better treatments. We have most people wearing masks. Remember in March and April when we were told not to bother with masks because the limited supplies were needed for the heath care professionals? Well, things change.

It might as well be "up to the individual" as Trump says. And THAT is a recipe for the indefinite persistence of the Trump Virus.

On the micro-level it is up to the individual to not be an idiot, sure. And why do you call it the "Trump Virus"? It originated in China - Trump had nothing to do with it!

Absent a national policy of suppression that consists of actual orders, this is going to continue well into next year - with or without the much-ballyhooed vaccines. There will be recurrent surges and declines as long as there is no uniform national policy - at least for mitigation if not suppression.

A vaccine would be a game changer. I do not see why you think otherwise.
And no, we will not see recurrent surges and declines indefinitely, because of immunity those already infected possess. That's a big reason NY is experiencing low levels of new infections right now - its not all up to social distancing and business closures. Rather, the very big 1a wave that swept over NY in March/April led to significant fraction of the population being exposed already.

I'm sick of explaining these things to you Derec. Carry on with your happy talk.

Me too. Carry on with your pessimist talk.

 

[bilby]

The last confirmed new case in Queensland was diagnosed in May; We have had a handful of known cases return home to the state since, under strict quarantine conditions.

And then today, two nineteen year old women have tested positive. They returned together from Melbourne on July 21st, falsified their border declarations, and have been working, shopping, and attending church services for eight days, while they should have been in quarantine.

One works as a cleaner at a Christian College, which has now closed; All staff and students are being tested. A shopping centre that one of the women is known to have frequented has also been closed. Police and health department are attempting to trace all of their close contacts, which will be a LOT. There is also a criminal investigation underway; If they are guilty of making a false declaration, they face thousands of dollars in fines.

Personally I think that if any of their contacts are hospitalised, they should face GBH charges, and if any die, they should be tried for manslaughter.

This is exactly what we didn't need. Up to now, we have had a lower case total, and a lower fatality rate, than New Zealand, which has a similar population to ours - though as we are not a nation state, we haven't been held up as an example to be emulated, in the way that NZ has.

Over one million border passes have been processed since they were introduced (obviously many of those are for people who go back-and-forth regularly, so they are counted possibly hundreds of times. The border at Tweed Heads/Coolangatta runs through an urban area, and gets a LOT of traffic every day). Two people have potentially fucked it up for everyone.

If there's any community transmission as a result of this (and it would be shocking if there were not), then we might have to go back to the kind of total lockdown conditions we had back in April.

Fucking selfish arseholes.

 

[James Brown]

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

That's right. And in the long run maybe it's okay. It will certainly hasten the day when so many people have been exposed and are producing antibodies, that new cases fall below critical and C-19 starts to "magically disappear".

And we can see that happening in the North East. Their wave (1a) was so bad locally that there is significant immunity in the population. COVID did not "magically disappear" but new infections have stabilized at a rather low level of 30-100 daily cases per million for about 6 weeks now. If the rest of the country that is experiencing the 1b peak right now can simmer down to a similar low level over the next few weeks, I'd say that would be far from "magical disappearance" but still very good news.

But the intransigence of trumpsucking anti-maskers could still put us in a world of hurt by overwhelming public healthcare systems to the point where people are experiencing unnecessarily terrible outcomes for conditions other than C-19 infection. (Actually it's already happening, but it can get a lot worse.)

There are some localized shortages of ICU beds and the like, but nothing even remotely like what we've seen in NY in April or (even worse) in Italy in March/April.

Nothing like? We already have places where hospitals are telling the patients with the worst prognoses to go home and die.

 

[Elixir]

I'm sick of explaining these things to you Derec. Carry on with your happy talk.

Me too. Carry on with your pessimist talk.

Okay then ... to pick up where you left off, I am pessimistic about the duration of immunity for those who have been exposed. Time will tell, and there's nothing to be done about that in the meanwhile.
I am also pessimistic about the timeline for a vaccine, once proven (to a degree that will certainly be less than what is usually required) to become widely available. It is encouraging that production capacities are reportedly already being ramped up by the various Companies that currently have vaccines in various stages of trials, just in case they prove out.
I am most pessimistic about the outlook for this fall. The Trump Crime Family is just as determined to "open the economy" as it was on Memorial Day, and many Governors see themselves as bound to Trump. Some are even trying to demonstrate their willingness to deny or ignore science to curry favor with the Trump cabal. Compounded by flu season, federal opposition to and lack of funding for prophylactic testing and contact tracing, it is hard to imagine a better result than what came from the post Memorial Day "reopen" if kids go back to school and Mom and Dad go back to work to bolster "the economy" (read: economic metrics that look good for Trump).
I am pessimistic about American society's ability to do anything in unified fashion, and I believe that is what would be required to put down this coronavirus any faster than widespread infection, illness and death would accomplish. But you knew that, right? I have said from the beginning that I believe that virtually everyone will be exposed, and the best we can hope for is that it's not all at once (as Trump's people seem to hope it is).