Herd immunity is a pipe dream. Those high rates aren't anything like enough of the population to bring herd immunity.
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Herd immunity is a pipe dream. Those high rates aren't anything like enough of the population to bring herd immunity.
Derec
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The full herd immunity is a long way off, you are correct there. But I did not claim that Wisconsin cases will go down to almost zero in two weeks, just that the new cases will come down well below current levels. Immunity is a continuum, not a switch. And not everybody is equally likely to get infected and spread the infection. Most of the infections and spread is driven by people who interact with many people either for their job or in their social life. And as those people get infected and get immune (at least for a while), the spread will slow down. That's been happening, for example in NYC.
I see no reason to expect them to come down for some time.
Derec
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I base it based on how long these surges have usually lasted and that Wisconsin is weeks into this surge.
Although wavelet 1c is mostly rural and 1a and 1b were mostly urban and suburban, so I guess it could behave differently and last longer. We will see.
In other news, US had 66k cases reported today. But deaths were under 900, which is a promising sign that the lethality is going down.
France had 30k cases today. That's ~140k US population equivalent and almost twice the US per capita peak. Only 88 deaths though. Not sure whether it's French cheese, French wine or French smugness that is protective, but WHO should definitely investigate.
Elixir
Made in America
Did you forget that deaths are a lagging stat? Yes, the death rate is going down. That's probably due to improved treatments and a slowly growing body of knowledge about the Trump Virus itself.
If case numbers are allowed to explode per the administration's (lack of a) plan, systems will be overwhelmed (again), PPE will be in short supply (again) and the mortality rate will increase (again).
So ask yourself when and where this currently-building peak will top out. If this (peak #3) bears the same relationship to peak #2 (end of July) that peak 2 did to peak #1 (April), we'd be looking at peak 3 topping out in December at nearly 100,000 cases/day. If you think that wouldn't effect the mortality rate as well as the gross number of deaths, you aren't paying attention.
In fact though, due to seasonal issues (concurrent flu, cold weather etc), given the Trump "plan", that actual peak might be in February with truly obscene numbers of cases and deaths - all made nearly un-trackable except by "excess death" analysis.
Jimmy Higgins
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One of these times, people are going to notice trends. Like how deaths lag cases, did originally, did in the Trump Bump, and will unfortunately with this ascension of cases. This rise is likely from schools opening up, but under protections so the cases are increasing but not as fast as when AZ, TX, and FL told 20 somethings to go to the bars and act responsibly.
The bothersome thing now is that over half the states (26) were over 1,000 new cases. So this isn't a massive outbreak, but a slow burn increase due to the overlapping of too many Venn Diagram circles.
Elixir
Made in America
... hence my predication of a possible steady increase in the case rate until February-ish.
This assumes that Trump won't learn anything from even the most resounding electoral defeat. In fact it will probably cause him to double and triple down as usual.
It is true that deaths lag infection rates.
I'd also hypothesize that the death rate is going down mainly because in the spring, so many deaths were along elderly especially in nursing homes and assisted living. Elderly are more likely to die from the C19 than younger people.
I'd hypothesize that today a larger share of new infections is among younger people who, while still getting C19, are less likely to die.
So I'd expect that the death rate is likely doing down due to a shift in the ages of people who are getting infected.
People who only focus on death rate also ignore that it appears that a significant number of all people who become infected develop other long-term issues. So the harm of C19 is not just death rates but also the share of people who will develop other problems because they were infected.
I know you know all that.
I base it based on how long these surges have usually lasted and that Wisconsin is weeks into this surge.
Although wavelet 1c is mostly rural and 1a and 1b were mostly urban and suburban, so I guess it could behave differently and last longer. We will see.
In other news, US had 66k cases reported today. But deaths were under 900, which is a promising sign that the lethality is going down.
France had 30k cases today. That's ~140k US population equivalent and almost twice the US per capita peak. Only 88 deaths though. Not sure whether it's French cheese, French wine or French smugness that is protective, but WHO should definitely investigate.
I'd bet that C19 is not becoming less lethal. I'd bet that the share of people who become infected has shifted to younger people who are simply less likely to die than are older people.
Jimmy Higgins
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The death rate "went" down because we were under testing in the initial outbreak. The same people were spreading it in March that were spreading it in June and July. We just didn't have test results for those people.
bilby
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Yup, this is why the data is really scary. It's not a surge triggered by an event, it's just a general high level and thus there's no reason for it go down.
Elixir
Made in America
I bet we set a new record for daily new cases at least one day next week.
Any takers? Jason?
Sadly, this will occur amid the strongest effort to suppress that data yet seen. The actual number would probably make the hair curl on the upper lip of Republican women.
Any takers? Jason?
Sadly, this will occur amid the strongest effort to suppress that data yet seen. The actual number would probably make the hair curl on the upper lip of Republican women.
Yes the highest back in July was 70.9K. Yesterday was 70.5K. And it's going up. The US will almost certainly break the July record for new cases in a day.
And ya, with Trump still against expanding needed testing and with some states trying to suppress the count, it's looking really bad.
And trump's foolish advisor on the task force who is a radiologist, not qualified to advise on infectious disease, they are still talking about reaching a natural herd immunity which would kill millions.
Elixir
Made in America
B-b-b-but Jason says there is no evidence for any peak after the end of July! He predicted that the Trump Virus daily cases would peak in late July or early August, then decrease indefinitely.
I think that was the
Jimmy Higgins
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And the US is likely heading to the highest number of daily positives since the pandemic started. It is a bit different of a situation, as the virus is spreading everywhere, so while the aggregate is growing, the widespread growth means the actual expansion of virus is slower than during the Trump Bump, so we aren't looking at hospital issues for a bit, but this is going in the wrong direction again. Maybe this is sustainable... or maybe this is going to go pear shape. As we know, we are one or two mutations from this bug going away or taking many more lives. Providing it more times to mutate is never a good idea.
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The righties here spent all kinds of money and effort to remove Whitmer's emergency power imposed safety mandates only to have the state health department issue the same mandates right afterwards.
Boo hoo.
Boo hoo.
Derec
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Possible, but we are still quite a ways from that looking at 7 day averages, which should be done anyway, as raw daily numbers fluctuate too much.
Summer peak (wavelet 1b) was at ~70k daily cases and we are right now at ~56k.
Personally, I doubt 1c will reach or exceed 1b because 1c is mostly rural.
Things are not really spiking everywhere, but rather in places that have not suffered through 1a and 1b. Which is mostly rural and largely mid-western states. Good example is NE Wisconsin and all of the Dakotas.
What is the "Trump Bump"? I think he horribly mangled the COVID response, but such cutesy monikers are not very useful. As far as intensity, 1a was by far worse than 1b or the current 1c because it was concentrated in the North East and a few other areas. 1b was higher but spread out among many more states and regions of the country. This current spike is mostly rural, which has it own problems of inadequacies of rural healthcare compared to access to things like hospitals in and around urban centers.
Elixir
Made in America
I agree. Trivializing genocidal dereliction of duty is an insult to the seriousness of the Trump Virus.
Elixir
Made in America
Ding ding ding - we have a winner.
Over 80k new cases in a day... just when Jason said it would be going away.
I was hoping to hear his optimistic take on the current COVID situation but he has fallen rather silent on the subject. Some things are hard to minimize, as Trump's flailing around vividly demonstrates.