The World-O-Meter Thread

[Derec]

yeah cuz if there's one thing the US is renowned for, it's having a population that trusts vaccines and will be eager to go out of their way to get one.

Anti-vaxxing is hardly a US-specific phenomenon.

 

[Derec]

I think it's going to be quite a while before a good vaccine is available.

Much more likely we will have the first vaccine either in US or Europe by the end of the year.
But sure, there are always uncertainties and your pessimistic assessment could unfortunately be true. Btw, what do you mean by "quite a while"? March? June? End of 2021?

Two trials have already been halted, one of the test subjects in one of those trials died.

If you mean the trial in Brazil, it was apparently a person in the control group that died. Phase 3 trials have a lot of subjects, so it is hardly surprising some people would randomly get sick or even die.

 

[Derec]

Gun Nut,
I think you are misreading fromderinside's post. You are both saying the same thing.

fromderinside: "immunity is very limited in duration"

Gun Nut: "If your body didn't reduce the the amount of antibodies it produces in response to every specific infection you ever have had in your life in absence of the infection, your immune system would spend all its time and energy producing unneeded proteins, wasting resources and flooding your blood with them for no reason."

Those are not the same thing. Not even close. Circulating antibodies are meant to decrease over time, but that does not mean immunity itself is gone. Antibodies are made by B-cells. Memory B-calls are specific to an antibody and after an infection (or vaccination) they hang around in small numbers. When activated, they can undergo "clonal expansion", i.e. exact copies reproduce in large numbers and they can make new antibodies. Then there are memory T-cells that can activate B-cells but also have their own mechanism of action independent of antibodies.

In other words, there /can be/ an element of time for how long the immunity lasts.

But it is not solely a function of circulating antibodies.

fromderinside is saying that it looks like the Coronavirus immunity time period is shorter (I think I saw a window of around 3-6 months).

But that does not follow, as circulating antibodies are not the sole part of adaptive immunity.

 

[Derec]

T-Cells produce antibodies that it "remembers" were effective at disabling this virus.

Minor nitpick. It is B-cells that produce antibodies.

 

[Derec]

Well there's that. However the most disturbing indications are that immunity is very limited in duration which would make a vaccination moot.

The studies I have seen have found that antibodies wane over a period of months, but that does not mean immunity does.
Neither does it make vaccinations moot. Sometimes for example immune system needs a nudge to effectively remember an intruder. Which is why many vaccines have to be taken twice over a period of time for maximum efficiency.

Are you ready for deadly 'cold' seasons several times a year?

There is no indication that that's what we are heading toward.

If the above isn't clear, get ready to keep bars closed, to invest in outdoor simulating air conditioning in restaurants, malls, event arenas and such and start wearing masks as necessary fashion item. Because as you may know there is no tribal immunity to the cold.

Cold is caused by many different viruses though. It is not so much a disease but a set of relatively mild symptoms. Basically any mild upper respiratory infection == a cold.

I'm here to crush the Pollyanna Republican view that disease can be wished away.

Nobody here subscribes to such a view. But realize that your pessimistic view is just as wrong.

Get real. The economy will need to radically change.

You leftists want that independent of any pandemics!

What form exactly should this 'radically changed' economy take in your view?

 

[lpetrich]

Covid-19: South Korea and China Show Europe and U.S. How to Handle a Pandemic - Bloomberg
It's paywalled, but some Bloomberg writer tweeted a nice summary, emojis and all.
Bloomberg Opinion on Twitter: "It’s easy to feel as if there’s no light at the end of the Covid-19 tunnel ..." / Twitter

It’s easy to feel as if there’s no light at the end of the Covid-19 tunnel:

ICUs are filling up
Fresh lockdowns
Herd immunity a long way off

Yet we shouldn’t ignore the better news from Asia

The strategies pursued by South Korea, Vietnam & China are paying off. As of Nov. 1, the cumulative death rate per million is:

U.S.: 696
U.K.: 685
France: 563
vs.
South Korea: 9
China: 3
Vietnam: 0.36

[Chart shows data correct as of Oct. 30]

The perception of an Asian advantage often falls prey to essentialist thinking: that the East is doing things the West could never do, thanks to profound differences in values, politics and culture, writes @LionelRALaurent.

That’s not necessarily the case

Bloomberg Opinion on Twitter: "The key to avoiding more lockdowns is finding a way to “live with the virus” through:

Widespread testing
Tracing of contacts
Isolating positive cases

Western countries have made structural, not cultural errors here

Extensive testing rolled out too slowly & too late
Not enough contact tracers
Lack of enforcement and financial support to encourage self-isolation

These aren’t questions of philosophy but about implementation of policy

Compare that with Asia:

South Korea tested early, and often
In Wuhan, 11 million people were tested over 2 weeks
The positive-test rate in South Korea and Vietnam is below 1%, compared to 10% in France and Spain

While contact-tracing strategies such as Hong Kong’s geofencing wristbands would spook the average Westerner, Europeans failed to implement alternatives properly.

Between July & August, the number of contacts traced per case in France fell to 2.4 from 4.5

China & South Korea’s decision to monitor patients in special centers is worth considering.

Keeping people cooped up at home doesn’t seem much more liberal. It’s also less effective. One study suggests institutional isolation could avert 3x as many cases

The difference between Asia & Europe is rooted in recent, not ancient history. Over the past 20 years, Asia has been hit with several epidemics, including:

🗓2003 SARS
🗓2015 MERS

These forced countries to invest in public health

As Europeans enter winter lockdowns, they should remember that improvements are achievable.

If Asia managed to learn from past pandemics, the West should be able to as well

 

[Elixir]

Now over 100k !

Daily numbers have a lot of noise as well as periodic fluctuations. Therefore using a 7 day running average is the best metric here.
And the 7 day average is 82.7k as of today.
...
Compared to case numbers, deaths are down significantly.
...
First vaccines are probably going to be approved by this Winter

...and the Happy Talk continues.

*The new case rate is at record levels with absolutely no sign hat it slowing. In fact it appears to be accelerating:


* I'm sure that the decreasing death rate is a great comfort to those whose loved ones are are among the increasing numbers of daily dead.


* Winter is in seven weeks in the northern hemisphere. If a vaccine is approved by then it will probably hurt more than help:
Early approval of a COVID-19 vaccine could stymie the hunt for better ones

But keep up the Happy Talk, dude; trumpsuckers (and your fellow "I'm not a trumpsucker"s) need the encouragement.
Don't let them know that you haven't been right about any of this yet.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And Covid-19 continues to increase, despite the best efforts of many people trying to give a darn. 118k new cases yesterday, the 7 day average about 100,000k now. Cases rising weekly about 20%.

And deaths are predictably, AGAIN, rising as they lag the increased cases... AGAIN!!!

So despite the idiots that said history wouldn't repeat... it is now repeating AGAIN!

7 - > 8 million - 23 days
8 - > 9 million - 16 days
9 - > 10 million - 10 days

Thanks America for fucking up Xmas.

 

[Elixir]

And Covid-19 continues to increase, despite the best efforts of many people trying to give a darn. 118k new cases yesterday, the 7 day average about 100,000k now. Cases rising weekly about 20%.

And deaths are predictably, AGAIN, rising as they lag the increased cases... AGAIN!!!

So despite the idiots that said history wouldn't repeat... it is now repeating AGAIN!

7 - > 8 million - 23 days
8 - > 9 million - 16 days
9 - > 10 million - 10 days

Thanks America for fucking up Xmas.

Less than 8 days for the next million at this rate of increase. (Quarter million in the last 2 days...)

 

[Elixir]

Looks like another "peak" is approaching (right, Derec?).
My predictions:

* This coming peak will be the highest one we see for new cases, unless the Trump coup attempt succeeds.
* We will not see daily case rates below the late July peak (<80k/day) until after Biden is inaugurated
* Once (if) the new administration is in place there will be a steady, uninterrupted reduction in the new case rate 7-day rolling average
* Restrictions on movements, public establishments and distancing protocols will remain in place until early summer 2021
* We will be out of the woods by mid summer
* The economy will not recover until 2022

 

[Derec]

Looks like another "peak" is approaching (right, Derec?).

I definitely think so.
I think 1c will peak before the end of November, probably 20-25th.
I did underestimate this rural peak and its ability to spill over into urban areas like Chicago, Milwaukee and Minneapolis, but I do think I am right on this, for two reasons.
- Saturation: As you cumulatively infect more people, you reduce the number of susceptible people. Not everybody is equally likely to get it though. People working around customers and people who like to go out (dining, night clubs etc.) are most likely to get infected and to spread it. Thus, you can get effective saturation before total population has reached a high infected percentage.
- Elections are over. Standing in line for an hour or more with dozens of other people is good for spreading the virus. As is attending rallies, knocking on doors to GOTV, etc.

* This coming peak will be the highest one we see for new cases, unless the Trump coup attempt succeeds.

Agreed. It will also be the last peak for a while, or for good, if the promise of the Pfizer vaccine holds.

* We will not see daily case rates below the late July peak (<80k/day) until after Biden is inaugurated

I think we will peak before the end of November, so I definitely think we will drop below 80k well before inauguration day. Probably even by New Year.

* Once (if) the new administration is in place there will be a steady, uninterrupted reduction in the new case rate 7-day rolling average

Trump has unfortunately done a lot of damage already, and even though I think President Biden will do a much better job handling the virus, do not expect his administration to be able to change things quickly. That said, we will be on the downslope of a major peak, so I do think there will be a steady reduction regardless.

* Restrictions on movements, public establishments and distancing protocols will remain in place until early summer 2021

Very likely until late Spring at least. But I expect most colleges and schools to reopen for in person study by February.

* We will be out of the woods by mid summer
* The economy will not recover until 2022

Depends on any stimulus. There will be a lot of pent-up demand to go out and do things, travel etc. but many might lack funds to do it. Stimulus in Spring or Summer would provide a much needed cash infusion to the consumers.

 

[Elixir]

I did underestimate this rural peak and its ability to spill over into urban areas like Chicago, Milwaukee and Minneapolis, but- Saturation: As you cumulatively infect more people, you reduce the number of susceptible people.

You are better than that at math, Derec. At 10m cases it's around 3% of the population. So you are assuming that the actual number of infected is 8-15 times what is reported. Possible, but unevidenced.
(To have any significant effect according to epidemiologists, it needs to be over 20%. I don't pretend to know all the formulae, but I know that such formulae exist and are grounded in fact) Further, the amount and duration of immunity conferred by getting infected and recovering is yet to be understood. So I consider that line of reasoning very shaky.

- Elections are over. Standing in line for an hour or more with dozens of other people is good for spreading the virus. As is attending rallies, knocking on doors to GOTV, etc.

Rallies and election-related activities have shown to be effective at spreading the virus, no question. But now we have holidays... and a lot of really stupid people who think that a public announcement of a vaccine trial that was 90% effective constitutes permission to ignore the fact that there is a raging pandemic. I can't wait to see what happens when the FDA announces approval.
I agree that we are probably near peak. I just don't see a rapid decline from the peak happening soon, vaccine or no vaccine. In the short term I still believe saturation testing is the answer. If we know exactly who has it, we can isolate and control the whole thing in a matter of 8 -10 weeks. If antibody tests are ubiquitous we will also quickly learn about conferred immunity - it's efficacy and duration. I'm hoping testing turns out to be the low-hanging fruit for the next administration.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I did underestimate this rural peak and its ability to spill over into urban areas like Chicago, Milwaukee and Minneapolis, but- Saturation: As you cumulatively infect more people, you reduce the number of susceptible people.

Antibody testing indicated that 1/5 to 1/4 of New Yorkers got it. So, this "saturation" bullshit needs to stop. How many times do we need to relive history in the past year?

 

[fromderinside]

Merica 330,000,000 citizens. Latest Covid cases day 140,000. Hmmmm.

At that rate in 10 days 1.4 million cases accumulate. In 100 days 14 million cases accumulate. In 1000 days 140 million cases accumulate. So in about 2500 days 330 million cases accumulate. But in seven years US population will be 28 million persons larger.

Does anyone other than Derec see that, even with long immunity, herd immunity will save us?

 

[Elixir]

Merica 330,000,000 citizens. Latest Covid cases day 140,000. Hmmmm.

At that rate in 10 days 1.4 million cases accumulate. In 100 days 14 million cases accumulate. In 1000 days 140 million cases accumulate. So in about 2500 days 330 million cases accumulate. But in seven years US population will be 28 million persons larger.

Does anyone other than Derec see that, even with long immunity, herd immunity will save us?

I don't want to wait seven years, so The Donald is right. Let 'er rip.
Sure, 3 million plus people will die in the next couple of months, and it will have been for naught if it turns out that long term immunity isn't a thing, or if a vaccine or effective cure shows up. But I wanna PARTAY!

 

[Shadowy Man]

Merica 330,000,000 citizens. Latest Covid cases day 140,000. Hmmmm.

At that rate in 10 days 1.4 million cases accumulate. In 100 days 14 million cases accumulate. In 1000 days 140 million cases accumulate. So in about 2500 days 330 million cases accumulate. But in seven years US population will be 28 million persons larger.

Does anyone other than Derec see that, even with long immunity, herd immunity will save us?

Those numbers imply a linear increase not the exponential rise that uncontrolled pandemics would follow.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Merica 330,000,000 citizens. Latest Covid cases day 140,000. Hmmmm.

At that rate in 10 days 1.4 million cases accumulate. In 100 days 14 million cases accumulate. In 1000 days 140 million cases accumulate. So in about 2500 days 330 million cases accumulate. But in seven years US population will be 28 million persons larger.

Does anyone other than Derec see that, even with long immunity, herd immunity will save us?

Those numbers imply a linear increase not the exponential rise that uncontrolled pandemics would follow.

By Thanksgiving, if the 4% daily increase continues, it'll be 225,000 new cases a day. At some point, the states are going to have to close down again, as the hospitals won't be able to handle this. The widespread nature of this third outbreak is filling up areas where there aren't lots of hospitals.

Man, the GOP will have a party over that, as McConnell says the US can't afford to fund states closing down 'needlessly' and refuses a second Covid-19 bill. McConnell is going to try to sabotage the United States for 2024... assuming Biden becomes President.

 

[Elixir]

Merica 330,000,000 citizens. Latest Covid cases day 140,000. Hmmmm.

At that rate in 10 days 1.4 million cases accumulate. In 100 days 14 million cases accumulate. In 1000 days 140 million cases accumulate. So in about 2500 days 330 million cases accumulate. But in seven years US population will be 28 million persons larger.

Does anyone other than Derec see that, even with long immunity, herd immunity will save us?

Those numbers imply a linear increase not the exponential rise that uncontrolled pandemics would follow.

Call it an average over seven years. It will rise far above, then slowly fall below the 140k/day rate.
Bottom line, "herd immunity" is a pipedream FAPP.

 

[Elixir]

Looking like it might top out between 200,000 and 250,000 new cases per day, and around 5 thousand deaths per day at the peak.
Equivalent to a year of Vietnam deaths IN A DAY.
And the GOP is the Party of "So what?"

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

5,000 sounds too much, 3,000 would be more linear. The trouble is, people are going to suffer because they aren't going to go to the hospital soon. I feel like we are playing Wolfenstein, and going through a gauntlet to get to the final target (get the vaccine approved) where the game just stops and you go to the next level (presumption of immediate distribution of said vaccine). We are taking serious damage, but we will get there with about 10% life left. Victory!


Another way to look at it, about a total of 3 million people (according to antibody study) got it in the initial outbreak in NY/NJ/MA/CT, we had 7 day averages peak at 2,100 or so people dying a day. We currently have 4 million active cases.