The World-O-Meter Thread

[lpetrich]

Lockdowns could be avoided if 95% of people wore masks, says WHO - CNN

Lockdowns could be avoided if everyone followed health measures such as wearing masks, the World Health Organization's top Europe official said at a Thursday news briefing.

WHO Europe's Regional Director Hans Kluge stressed that lockdowns should be a "last resort," and urged the public to follow guidance to help to prevent deaths.

He said that if 95% of people wore masks, instead of the current 60%, "lockdowns would not be needed" -- although he added that mask use was not a "panacea" and needed to be combined with other measures.

"If we all do our share, lockdowns are avoidable," Kluge said.

I can understand people objecting to lockdowns, but to masks???

 

[Shadowy Man]

Lockdowns could be avoided if 95% of people wore masks, says WHO - CNN

Lockdowns could be avoided if everyone followed health measures such as wearing masks, the World Health Organization's top Europe official said at a Thursday news briefing.

WHO Europe's Regional Director Hans Kluge stressed that lockdowns should be a "last resort," and urged the public to follow guidance to help to prevent deaths.

He said that if 95% of people wore masks, instead of the current 60%, "lockdowns would not be needed" -- although he added that mask use was not a "panacea" and needed to be combined with other measures.

"If we all do our share, lockdowns are avoidable," Kluge said.

I can understand people objecting to lockdowns, but to masks???

It’s like being anti-abortion and also anti-contraception. Oh wait...

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I'd imagine the vaccine will help prevent death, not cases, as most of the people spreading the disease won't qualify for the vaccine this early in deployment. Granted, we need to have the vaccine deployed too, and the Trump Admin doesn't have a plan for that, other than CVS and Walgreens I think, which won't work.

The vaccine won't be preventing that many deaths at first as the first line will be the medical people--who are mostly young enough to have a good survival rate.

Will it be health workers first? I would presume yes in hotter spots, no where it isn't as hot.

Of course it would go to the hotter areas first. (Not that there are many areas where it isn't hot by now.)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Lockdowns could be avoided if 95% of people wore masks, says WHO - CNN

Lockdowns could be avoided if everyone followed health measures such as wearing masks, the World Health Organization's top Europe official said at a Thursday news briefing.

WHO Europe's Regional Director Hans Kluge stressed that lockdowns should be a "last resort," and urged the public to follow guidance to help to prevent deaths.

He said that if 95% of people wore masks, instead of the current 60%, "lockdowns would not be needed" -- although he added that mask use was not a "panacea" and needed to be combined with other measures.

"If we all do our share, lockdowns are avoidable," Kluge said.

I can understand people objecting to lockdowns, but to masks???

Which is what I've been saying for months.

I'm actually opposed to lockdowns at this point--we've already seen people are going to evade them, we get the pain with little benefit.

We need masks and shutting down the high risk activities (bars, dine-in restaurants, large gatherings of any type.) Leave the rest of society open.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Will it be health workers first? I would presume yes in hotter spots, no where it isn't as hot.

Of course it would go to the hotter areas first. (Not that there are many areas where it isn't hot by now.)

You say that like Trump has a distribution plan.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Looks like the butcher’s bill is over 5,000 for the last three days. Over 2,000 today.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think we will peak before the end of November, so I definitely think we will drop below 80k well before inauguration day. Probably even by New Year.

With the holidays coming up, no way.

It is impossible to tell. Right now, states are re-enacting limitations and closures... so this will impact transmission. IE "THE MODELS WERE WRONG!!!! I'D DON'T UNDERSTAND SCIENCE!!!! WUHAN FLU!"

There is every reason to believe cases will increase, but states can influence this. Right now, Covid-19 cases might be slowing down again both as state policies impact spread and the human beings with compassion or a brain left in the US, are reacting to the increase in cases. Of course, with the Red Hats, they'll probably try to throw the biggest Thanksgiving super spreader even they can.

187,000 cases yesterday seem to imply if it is slowing down, it is just at the start of the curve.

 

[Elixir]

It is impossible to tell. Right now, states are re-enacting limitations and closures... so this will impact transmission. IE "THE MODELS WERE WRONG!!!! I'D DON'T UNDERSTAND SCIENCE!!!! WUHAN FLU!"

There is every reason to believe cases will increase, but states can influence this. Right now, Covid-19 cases might be slowing down again both as state policies impact spread and the human beings with compassion or a brain left in the US, are reacting to the increase in cases. Of course, with the Red Hats, they'll probably try to throw the biggest Thanksgiving super spreader even they can.

187,000 cases yesterday seem to imply if it is slowing down, it is just at the start of the curve.

Since this is "The World-O-Meter thread, let's use their numbers. Yesterday: 192,186 new cases, 2065 deaths.
I have no idea what leads Derec to believe we're going to see a ~60% decline in the new case rate (from current levels, which have not yet peaked) in the next 9+ weeks, since the absence of any cohesive national response is a given. In fact, the Cheato Junta seems committed to pressing on with their herd mentality "solution", and will be actively trying to exacerbate the situation right up to the inauguration.
I think we may see the peak in the next few weeks, but Derec's Happy Talk (which has never yet proven out) about a radical decline in the new case stats by 1/20 seems to be, again, without rational basis.

 

[Artemus]

187,000 cases yesterday seem to imply if it is slowing down, it is just at the start of the curve.

201,083 cases today.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

7500 dead last four days.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Will it be health workers first? I would presume yes in hotter spots, no where it isn't as hot.

Of course it would go to the hotter areas first. (Not that there are many areas where it isn't hot by now.)

You say that like Trump has a distribution plan.

I don't think there's going to be much distribution under His Flatulence.

 

[Derec]

Since this is "The World-O-Meter thread, let's use their numbers. Yesterday: 192,186 new cases, 2065 deaths.

And just north of 200k today. Yes.
But there is grounds for Happy Talk as you call it. The curve is bending, and we are likely to peak in the next few days.

I have no idea what leads Derec to believe we're going to see a ~60% decline in the new case rate (from current levels, which have not yet peaked) in the next 9+ weeks, since the absence of any cohesive national response is a given.

I've given my reasons.

In fact, the Cheato Junta seems committed to pressing on with their herd mentality "solution", and will be actively trying to exacerbate the situation right up to the inauguration.

While a "herd immunity solution" is a bad policy, it does not mean we are not moving toward it. Most of the county will be at 30-50% of people having been infected - most of them asymptomatic and untested - by year's end. That will greatly affect the ability of the virus to spread effectively.

I think we may see the peak in the next few weeks, but Derec's Happy Talk (which has never yet proven out) about a radical decline in the new case stats by 1/20 seems to be, again, without rational basis.

Well, I was right about the 1b peak. I think 1c will peak the 25th or so, end of the month at the outside.
After that it will be downhill. Thanksgiving is a wild-card. How much will scaled-down gatherings have compared to gyms, indoor dining, bars, night-clubs and other superspreader locations/activities that have been busy for weeks and months. I think, and hope, that they will not have a measurable impact.

 

[Derec]

The vaccine won't be preventing that many deaths at first as the first line will be the medical people--who are mostly young enough to have a good survival rate.

But health care workers who don't get infected and therefore don't have to quarantine will reduce staffing shortages and thus likely save lives. It's not just direct lives saved that count.
Not to mention that there ARE many middle-aged and older doctors and nurses.

 

[Derec]

Unless our behavior changes dramatically, I would guess it would be like the flu, and peak in February. Maybe the vaccines could have an impact before then?

It looks like daily cases in US are close to peaking. The states that were hit especially hard during 1c like Wisconsin and Illinois seem to have already passed the peak.

Yes, some of it is new restrictions. But I think most of it is saturation. If 25% of an area population has already had the virus, and those people are more likely to get in contact with more people than the average person, the effective R drops. That's what is causing the sigmoid (cumulative) and bell shaped (daily) shape of outbreak models even if there are no mitigation efforts (constant R₀).

 

[Derec]

It is impossible to tell. Right now, states are re-enacting limitations and closures... so this will impact transmission.

They will have some effect, but I think most of it is due to saturation. That's the essence of the SIR model - the more people get infected the fewer susceptible people there are and the rate of spread decreases.

There is every reason to believe cases will increase, but states can influence this. Right now, Covid-19 cases might be slowing down again both as state policies impact spread and the human beings with compassion or a brain left in the US, are reacting to the increase in cases. Of course, with the Red Hats, they'll probably try to throw the biggest Thanksgiving super spreader even they can.

Red hats? As in the software company?

 

[Derec]

I think we will peak before the end of November, so I definitely think we will drop below 80k well before inauguration day. Probably even by New Year.

With the holidays coming up, no way.

I really doubt Thanksgiving and Christmas will have the impact of the ongoing activities like indoor dining, drinking in bars, going to the gym etc. Or the rallies, door knocking and standing in lines for the just concluded election season.
But we shall see. I am still baffled that Atlanta night clubs are this busy. And Apple Stores. Both busy enough for people to get into arguments and get shot, like some rapper at a hookah lounge a couple of weeks ago or some guy today.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

And just north of 200k today. Yes.
But there is grounds for Happy Talk as you call it. The curve is bending, and we are likely to peak in the next few days.
View attachment 30414

I've given my reasons.

In fact, the Cheato Junta seems committed to pressing on with their herd mentality "solution", and will be actively trying to exacerbate the situation right up to the inauguration.

While a "herd immunity solution" is a bad policy, it does not mean we are not moving toward it. Most of the county will be at 30-50% of people having been infected - most of them asymptomatic and untested - by year's end. That will greatly affect the ability of the virus to spread effectively.

We will be nowhere near that.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The vaccine won't be preventing that many deaths at first as the first line will be the medical people--who are mostly young enough to have a good survival rate.

But health care workers who don't get infected and therefore don't have to quarantine will reduce staffing shortages and thus likely save lives. It's not just direct lives saved that count.

Which is why we vaccinate them first.

 

[blastula]

Unless our behavior changes dramatically, I would guess it would be like the flu, and peak in February. Maybe the vaccines could have an impact before then?

It looks like daily cases in US are close to peaking. The states that were hit especially hard during 1c like Wisconsin and Illinois seem to have already passed the peak.

Yes, some of it is new restrictions. But I think most of it is saturation. If 25% of an area population has already had the virus, and those people are more likely to get in contact with more people than the average person, the effective R drops. That's what is causing the sigmoid (cumulative) and bell shaped (daily) shape of outbreak models even if there are no mitigation efforts (constant R₀).

WI and IL may be peaking but they are not the nation. Many other states are not peaking. I understand about SIR but there are way too many factors to it for you to make the precise predictions you are, or are you using an actual model? It is possible that the current rise was fueled by election activity and so may decline now, but my amateur hunch is that there are still too many susceptible and the virus will act like other respiratory viruses in the winter and spread easier, especially when lots of people will be travelling to other people's houses and gather inside for hours and days.

The CDC ensemble shows a rise still for the next few weeks.

COVID-19 Forecasts: Cases | CDC



Also, see the aggregate here. Viz - COVID-19 Forecast Hub | COVID-19

 

[Elixir]

The CDC ensemble shows a rise still for the next few weeks.

From the travel stats (e.g. thksgvg air travel down only 10% from 2019) it would be astonishing if that were not the case.
Where will the hospitalizations and deaths top out? 3k/day dead? 5k?
Looks like the democrats' hoax is about to get serious.