The World-O-Meter Thread

[Elixir]

We also just had a big superspreader event known as CPAC. Let's see how much impact that has on the numbers.

How big was that event (number of people) in how confined a space, for how long?
How many of them had already pushed and cheated their way to the front of the Vax line, while insisting that COVID is a fraud? I don't expect much to come of that. But ...

Texas has 29 million people and less than 7% vaccinated. Half are Republitards.
If even half of those start celebrating their newfound freedumb in bars and at parties, it's going to create a massive surge. It'll be like a Sturgis event, but with 7+ million people.

 

[Elixir]

An interesting page: US COVID Projections

The daily infections projections are "the number of people we estimate are infected with COVID-19 each day, including those not tested."
Yesterday, the minimum was about 80K, around 147K ,max. Reported by last evening was 68,321 for the day. 7-day average including yesterday: 64,111.

So they are estimating the actual number of new cases to be running between about 1.18 and 2.15 times the reported numbers. That's far less of a difference than I would have expected.
The most encouraging signs on that page are the stats and projections for ICU beds and ventilators; if this is to be believed, we are almost out of the woods in that respect.
MASK UP!

 

[Loren Pechtel]

An interesting page: US COVID Projections

The daily infections projections are "the number of people we estimate are infected with COVID-19 each day, including those not tested."
Yesterday, the minimum was about 80K, around 147K ,max. Reported by last evening was 68,321 for the day. 7-day average including yesterday: 64,111.

So they are estimating the actual number of new cases to be running between about 1.18 and 2.15 times the reported numbers. That's far less of a difference than I would have expected.
The most encouraging signs on that page are the stats and projections for ICU beds and ventilators; if this is to be believed, we are almost out of the woods in that respect.
MASK UP!

The way the case counts have plunged since the holidays I would expect the hospitals to be doing ok by now.

 

[Elixir]

An interesting page: US COVID Projections

The daily infections projections are "the number of people we estimate are infected with COVID-19 each day, including those not tested."
Yesterday, the minimum was about 80K, around 147K ,max. Reported by last evening was 68,321 for the day. 7-day average including yesterday: 64,111.

So they are estimating the actual number of new cases to be running between about 1.18 and 2.15 times the reported numbers. That's far less of a difference than I would have expected.
The most encouraging signs on that page are the stats and projections for ICU beds and ventilators; if this is to be believed, we are almost out of the woods in that respect.
MASK UP!

The way the case counts have plunged since the holidays I would expect the hospitals to be doing ok by now.

Most of the medical personnel I know are feeling a lot less stressed now that they have been vaccinated and severe case loads, while still much heavier than "normal", are within a manageable range. That may change in TX, MS, FL and the other "Idiot States".

 

[Derec]

The way the case counts have plunged since the holidays I would expect the hospitals to be doing ok by now.

They are certainly doing much better. According to NY Times, the number of hospitalized COVID patients stands at ~42.5k. That is about 1/3 of the peak or more than 120k.

 

[Derec]

We also just had a big superspreader event known as CPAC. Let's see how much impact that has on the numbers.

How big was that event (number of people) in how confined a space, for how long?

CPAC will not have much of an impact on numbers. The event is way too small in the context of overall population numbers and a significant faction of the attendees had been infected previously and/or will has gotten the vaccine.

Texas has 29 million people and less than 7% vaccinated. Half are Republitards.

According to Bloomberg, it is >15% for at least one dose and >8% for both doses. And we know significant protection kicks in before the 2nd dose is administered.

If even half of those start celebrating their newfound freedumb in bars and at parties, it's going to create a massive surge. It'll be like a Sturgis event, but with 7+ million people.

Doubtful. Some people are vaccinated as I said. But more people than that have been already infected. 9.1% of the Texas population are confirmed cases, which translates to 35-40% true numbers. So about half the population has some level of immunity, which makes "massive surges" very unlikely to impossible. Note also that the people most likely to go to bars and parties are the same people who were more likely to not socially distance over the past year too, making them more likely to be in the "previously exposed" 1/3 to 2/5 of the Texas population.

 

[Derec]

Monday is March 1st, by which time Derec tells us that daily deaths should be at or below 600. Maybe I should have taken his money...

I got a bit overoptimistic. But the cases and deaths did fall dramatically since January and I was right there there was a bumpy plateau followed by a down-slope after the holidays.

unless there are zero deaths between now and then, his Happy Talk will have missed by a factor of 3 or 4, as I predicted.

Actually you were very cagey about any concrete predictions.

Meanwhile, I'm hoping against hope that this weekend's reports show new lows for the year in new cases. If not, it portends a bleak outlook for the next month or two.

Good old Elixir with his Doom and Gloom Talk.
In any case, the 7 day average has turned down slightly again since you posted that screenshot.

 

[Derec]

- if the decrease rate is going to level off, I'd hope it would do so somewhere south of a 50k 7-day average... but I fear that the stalling point will be the same as it was after last July; it decreased slowly until it was below 40k for a few days, and then all hell broke loose. We can't afford to let that happen again!

Compared to today (35-40%) a much smaller percentage of the population had been exposed to the virus last July September (I believe you wanted to say September rather than July). And we did not have vaccines.
So even with variants there is not much chance of "all hell breaking loose".

 

[Derec]

But, well, the numbers keep climbing.

They do not. The numbers have been sharply decreasing since January and are still decreasing, albeit more slowly.

 

[barbos]

Looks like infection rate stopped decreasing and about to start increasing again.

 

[Derec]

Looks like infection rate stopped decreasing and about to start increasing again.

No.

 

[barbos]

US is not whole world.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

US is not whole world.

Wait, what now?

 

[Politesse]

But, well, the numbers keep climbing.

They do not. The numbers have been sharply decreasing since January and are still decreasing, albeit more slowly.

"Climbing more slowly" and "decreasing" are not synonyms.

 

[Derec]

US is not whole world.

Well sure, but this is a US-centric forum and thread so unless otherwise specified, US is assumed as default.
I just looked at worldwide graph, and the previous decline has plateaued but I think it's too early to tell which way it will go. Note that the worldwide vaccination rate is far less than in the US too, so it is possible that worldwide numbers could be on the increase while US numbers keep declining.

 

[Derec]

"Climbing more slowly" and "decreasing" are not synonyms.

So you must be referring to cumulative numbers? That is not a useful metric here as those numbers can by definition only go up.

A better metric for the state of the pandemic is a 7 day average in new cases, which has been rapidly declining since January and is now still declining, albeit slowly.

 

[Politesse]

So you must be referring to cumulative numbers?

Er, no. I'm referring to living human beings, whose lives matter.

That is not a useful metric here as those numbers can by definition only go up.

A better metric for the state of the pandemic is a 7 day average in new cases, which has been rapidly declining since January and is now still declining, albeit slowly.

And the fact that the pandemic got very, very bad in November doesn't mean it isn't bad in March, even if the rate of new infections has lessened. Thousands of people dying of an easily preventable illness because some asshole politicians convinced them that the lethality of a disease is a optional belief. I'm not okay with that, nor should anyone else be, just because the numbers are "down" this month.

 

[Derec]

About CPAC as a superspreader event, I still don't think it is major enough to be one. I would be much more concerned about the stupid NBA All Star game that is in Atlanta this weekend. Even without all the shootings, the parties/rap concerts and the like are dangerous. They are close-contact, crowded events and thus will lead to a lot of transmissions.

 

[Derec]

Er, no. I'm referring to living human beings, whose lives matter.

Careful with saying that people's lives matter - you may get cancelled by the wokesters!

And the fact that the pandemic got very, very bad in November doesn't mean it isn't bad in March, even if the rate of new infections has lessened. Thousands of people dying of a preventable illness because some asshole politicians convinced them that the lethality of a disease is a optional belief.

It's still accurate to say that cases have been declining recently, which is a good sign.

 

[Politesse]

It's still accurate to say that cases have been declining recently, which is a good sign.

Well, great. But not a good reason to abandon all precaution whatsoever. And that was the behavior that I was remarking on in the post that you quote-mined.