The World-O-Meter Thread

[Artemus]

Reported new cases are down but still very bad, and fatalities are still absolutely hideous. One short of 4,000 today and a 7-day average well above 3,000. (Remember when we were horrified that the one-day peak might reach 3,000?) Everyone had to have Christmas no matter who it killed.

This is beyond awful. And we still have deniers out there....

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yeah, the holidays appeared to kill 100,000 Americans. That is a somber realization of how fucking selfish and stupid too many people are. No wonder Trump got 74 million votes.

Hopefully the trend continues down. But we are still in the 20,000 dying a week part of the curve. America failed, badly!

 

[Elixir]

Hopefully the trend continues down.

Amen to that. I keep thinking/hoping to see us under 100k new cases one of these days soon (next week?). A little uptick today, but it seems like the momentum is still downward.

But we are still in the 20,000 dying a week part of the curve. America failed, badly!

10-14 days behind the "case curve" it should start showing a steeper decrease soon. If it doesn't, or starts going up, it could be a very long winter indeed; that would have to be mostly the result of the "new variants" as the other major factors (mask use, vaccines administered) should be working to reduce deaths and new case numbers, even if new case reports start leveling off due to increased testing.

 

[Derec]

10-14 days behind the "case curve" it should start showing a steeper decrease soon. If it doesn't, or starts going up, it could be a very long winter indeed; that would have to be mostly the result of the "new variants" as the other major factors (mask use, vaccines administered) should be working to reduce deaths and new case numbers, even if new case reports start leveling off due to increased testing.

I am still very optimistic. The US hospitalization dropped from over 120k to <90k. That means less overworked doctors and nurses and thus hopefully fewer unnecessary deaths. At the same time, most states are now vaccinating those >65 years of age, and 80% of all deaths are in that age group. Vaccination is slower than it really should be, but the rate has picked up some over the last month.

 

[Elixir]

10-14 days behind the "case curve" it should start showing a steeper decrease soon. If it doesn't, or starts going up, it could be a very long winter indeed; that would have to be mostly the result of the "new variants" as the other major factors (mask use, vaccines administered) should be working to reduce deaths and new case numbers, even if new case reports start leveling off due to increased testing.

I am still very optimistic.

I am hopeful, and a little surprised at the January drop worldwide in new case rates. Not optimistic though... at least not yet. The tendency toward complacency as soon as the "curve is flattening" combined with more contagious variants is going to be more than annoying for a while. But hopefully deaths will go way down, and soon. The death rate drop that you predicted to take us down to =<600/day by March 1 isn't going to happen, but I do expect to see it drop faster than it has so far, mirroring new cases from 2-3 weeks prior.

The US hospitalization dropped from over 120k to <90k. That means less overworked doctors and nurses and thus hopefully fewer unnecessary deaths. At the same time, most states are now vaccinating those >65 years of age, and 80% of all deaths are in that age group. Vaccination is slower than it really should be, but the rate has picked up some over the last month.

Eligibility is one thing, availability is another. The vac rate has to pick up much more quickly... some "experts" are predicting another wave even worse than the December debacle.

 

[Derec]

I am hopeful, and a little surprised at the January drop worldwide in new case rates.

I told you that this would happen.

Not optimistic though... at least not yet. The tendency toward complacency as soon as the "curve is flattening" combined with more contagious variants is going to be more than annoying for a while. But hopefully deaths will go way down, and soon.

They will, barring some major development.

The death rate drop that you predicted to take us down to =<600/day by March 1 isn't going to happen, but I do expect to see it drop faster than it has so far, mirroring new cases from 2-3 weeks prior.

I think it will get reasonably close - enough for you to have called it "Happy Talk" a few weeks ago.

Eligibility is one thing, availability is another.

So far, almost 10% of the US population have received at least one dose of the vaccine. It's not like barely anybody gets vaccinated due to lack of availability. Btw, about 16% of US population are over 65, and most of those vaccinated so far have been >65, so a good fraction (over 1/3 for sure) of >65 year olds have received a vaccine already.

The vac rate has to pick up much more quickly... some "experts" are predicting another wave even worse than the December debacle.

We are doing 1.3M vaccinations per day. There is definitely room for improvement, but it is not as slow as you make it sound.

I wonder who these "experts" are. Barring a mutation that renders either vaccines or natural immunity ineffective, It's not going to happen.
The situation is very different than before the Nov-Dec-Jan peak. Most of the confirmed cases happened during that peak, and those infected now have natural immunity. At the same time, vaccinations started in mid-December and ~10% have received at least the first dose. So I do not see where the susceptible population is that would sustain another major peak, let alone one bigger than the Nov-Dec-Jan one.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Optimism is quite stupid at this point. We are going to cross the 500,000 dead threshold. Hooray! It wasn't 1 million.

Hopefully the trend continues downward. Cases are dropping, deaths are lagging downward now. It seems the question is, are cases low enough (because they sure the heck aren't low) that new variants don't screw things up.

 

[Politesse]

Optimism is quite stupid at this point. We are going to cross the 500,000 dead threshold. Hooray! It wasn't 1 million.

Hopefully the trend continues downward. Cases are dropping, deaths are lagging downward now. It seems the question is, are cases low enough (because they sure the heck aren't low) that new variants don't screw things up.

I worry, because at least around here, people have abandoned all caution whatsoever, and those who have been vaccinated seem especially convinced of their invulnerability. A vaccine-resistant strain, or just a new coronavirus, could put us back at square one very easily. Can you imagine the government trying to explain, at this juncture, that there is now essentially a new disease to worry about and shut things down for? Vast swathes of the population would simply refuse to believe it, to take any self-protective action at all. But viruses are dangerous precisely because of their innate capacity to develop novel strains in a relatively short period of time.

 

[Elixir]

Optimism is quite stupid at this point. We are going to cross the 500,000 dead threshold. Hooray! It wasn't 1 million.

Hopefully the trend continues downward. Cases are dropping, deaths are lagging downward now. It seems the question is, are cases low enough (because they sure the heck aren't low) that new variants don't screw things up.

I worry, because at least around here, people have abandoned all caution whatsoever, and those who have been vaccinated seem especially convinced of their invulnerability. A vaccine-resistant strain, or just a new coronavirus, could put us back at square one very easily. Can you imagine the government trying to explain, at this juncture, that there is now essentially a new disease to worry about and shut things down for? Vast swathes of the population would simply refuse to believe it, to take any self-protective action at all. But viruses are dangerous precisely because of their innate capacity to develop novel strains in a relatively short period of time.

Yup, all that. Hence my disgust with "Happy Talk". In addition to some trumpsuckers living in total denial, I also know a relatively few "spiritual" types who believe they are invulnerable due to their transcendent lifestyles. They like to flaunt their disbelief in the effectiveness of establishment countermeasures such as masks. They consider themselves enlightened liberals, and mostly reject so-called "western medicine". (Especially odd, given the 'China Virus".)
I have always rebelled against conformism, but this is one time (the first time I can remember in my 70 years) when toeing the behavioral line can forestall immense human suffering.

 

[Rhea]

And every day that we allow the high number of cases to occur means there are multiple new generations of the virus, each capable of mutating in a terrible way.

Shutting down the number of infections also shuts down the number of viral generations susceptible to mutation.

We do need to remain vigilant to stop the current strains and prevent the future strains.

 

[Elixir]

And every day that we allow the high number of cases to occur means there are multiple new generations of the virus, each capable of mutating in a terrible way.

Shutting down the number of infections also shuts down the number of viral generations susceptible to mutation.

We do need to remain vigilant to stop the current strains and prevent the future strains.

^ Absolutely vital.
People don't get the power of large numbers; they envision something like "the virus tries tricks to avoid immunizations". In fact, even if only one out of millions of viral replications has a random mutation to it, there will be trillions upon trillions of randomly mutated particles in a global population of viruses (virii). It is a virtual certainty that if any change is possible that can enhance its reproductive success, it will be stumbled upon relatively quickly and could take off, if conditions permit (if its host spreads it). It's not something that can be outwitted or out-waited. It will win every single time if it gets enough chances.
Just like genetic algorithms that wade through billions of random design modifications to stumble upon a solution, a large viral population will overcome almost any obstacle to its reproduction if enough if it is allowed to persist.

 

[Worldtraveller]

And every day that we allow the high number of cases to occur means there are multiple new generations of the virus, each capable of mutating in a terrible way.

Shutting down the number of infections also shuts down the number of viral generations susceptible to mutation.

We do need to remain vigilant to stop the current strains and prevent the future strains.

^ Absolutely vital.
People don't get the power of large numbers; they envision something like "the virus tries tricks to avoid immunizations". In fact, even if only one out of millions of viral replications has a random mutation to it, there will be trillions upon trillions of randomly mutated particles in a global population of viruses (virii). It is a virtual certainty that if any change is possible that can enhance its reproductive success, it will be stumbled upon relatively quickly and could take off, if conditions permit (if its host spreads it). It's not something that can be outwitted or out-waited. It will win every single time if it gets enough chances.
Just like genetic algorithms that wade through billions of random design modifications to stumble upon a solution, a large viral population will overcome almost any obstacle to its reproduction if enough if it is allowed to persist.

Exactly. I've been trying to hammer this home to anyone that will listen (and occasionally even those that won't). It doesn't help that some of them are religious and inherently dubious about evolution, regardless of the actual science.

 

[barbos]

Well, looks like infection rate in GB is going down despite new variant.
I wonder if the new variant is not actually more contagious/transmissible, it's just original variant became less transmissible because so many people became infected and subsequently immune.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Well, looks like infection rate in GB is going down despite new variant.
I wonder if the new variant is not actually more contagious/transmissible, it's just original variant became less transmissible because so many people became infected and subsequently immune.

Or maybe the re-lockdown influences transmission?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And every day that we allow the high number of cases to occur means there are multiple new generations of the virus, each capable of mutating in a terrible way.

Shutting down the number of infections also shuts down the number of viral generations susceptible to mutation.

We can't live in fear... or understanding of biology.

We do need to remain vigilant to stop the current strains and prevent the future strains.

Isn't this the issue. The greatest fear is that variants get out of control... and then a mutation occurs that fucks things up badly. The deniers will continue denying... (continuing to be the problem!) and we have to keep wearing those damn masks and not doing things that doesn't require the wide open spaces.

 

[Elixir]

And every day that we allow the high number of cases to occur means there are multiple new generations of the virus, each capable of mutating in a terrible way.

Shutting down the number of infections also shuts down the number of viral generations susceptible to mutation.

We do need to remain vigilant to stop the current strains and prevent the future strains.

^ Absolutely vital.
People don't get the power of large numbers; they envision something like "the virus tries tricks to avoid immunizations". In fact, even if only one out of millions of viral replications has a random mutation to it, there will be trillions upon trillions of randomly mutated particles in a global population of viruses (virii). It is a virtual certainty that if any change is possible that can enhance its reproductive success, it will be stumbled upon relatively quickly and could take off, if conditions permit (if its host spreads it). It's not something that can be outwitted or out-waited. It will win every single time if it gets enough chances.
Just like genetic algorithms that wade through billions of random design modifications to stumble upon a solution, a large viral population will overcome almost any obstacle to its reproduction if enough if it is allowed to persist.

Exactly. I've been trying to hammer this home to anyone that will listen (and occasionally even those that won't). It doesn't help that some of them are religious and inherently dubious about evolution, regardless of the actual science.

Maybe the next iteration will be less contagious and more deadly, therefore more effective at wiping out the deniers.
But that would fly in the face of evolutionary theory - things that kill their hosts tend not to last long.

 

[bilby]

Exactly. I've been trying to hammer this home to anyone that will listen (and occasionally even those that won't). It doesn't help that some of them are religious and inherently dubious about evolution, regardless of the actual science.

Maybe the next iteration will be less contagious and more deadly, therefore more effective at wiping out the deniers.
But that would fly in the face of evolutionary theory - things that kill their hosts tend not to last long.

Less contagious is unlikely for that reason - a less contagious strain will be swamped by its more contagious cousins.

But deadly viruses don't last long because all the hosts are dead. A highly deadly and highly contagious disease with a long infectious period before symptoms develop is quite capable of killing a sizeable fraction of humanity before the death toll causes it to run out of hosts.

The 1348 pandemic killed about a third of the population of Europe. Perhaps more. Some cities had 90%+ mortality rates.

 

[barbos]

Well, looks like infection rate in GB is going down despite new variant.
I wonder if the new variant is not actually more contagious/transmissible, it's just original variant became less transmissible because so many people became infected and subsequently immune.

Or maybe the re-lockdown influences transmission?

it does, but the drop in rates can be observed all over the world even in countries, which did not do any extra measures lately.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The UK variant in Stupidfuckingstan (The US) is growing in percentage of new cases. Doubling its percentage of total new cases every 7 or 9 days. So it is more contagious, you just need it to spread in a stupid fucking country to see it.

 

[barbos]

The UK variant in Stupidfuckingstan (The US) is growing in percentage of new cases. Doubling its percentage of total new cases every 7 or 9 days. So it is more contagious, you just need it to spread in a stupid fucking country to see it.

Spread faster != more contageous.
original variant may have harder time spreading relative to the new one because half of the people probably have some kind of immunity to it already