The World-O-Meter Thread

[Elixir]

Not bad for Russia that time of year. In Minnesota, they need to wait three hours for it to thaw.

I wonder if their propaganda efforts might be backfiring.
Russian intelligence reportedly used fake news sites to spread misinformation about coronavirus vaccines

Apparently those efforts are attempting to discredit the "western" (Pfizer, Moderna. J&J) vaccines, while promoting their "Sputnik" product. But the Russian people are less that enthusiastic even about their own vaccine, if reports are to be believed.

As an aside, it is kind of funny/sad to see them recycling the Sputnik name. I still remember sitting in my third grade classroom where we had all been trained how to hide under our one-piece desks when the atomic bombs began to fall, and the anxiety on the teacher's voice as she explained that the dreaded Russians now had an object traveling over our heads that we couldn't do anything about. (The fact that all it did was go "beep beep beep" was little consolation.)

That was probably the last time that anything "The Russians" did actually provoked that kind of response, at least in me. Yeah, the Cuba thing was kinda scary, but at least it seemed like something we could act against.

Sputnik isn't just a proper noun, and doesn't just refer back to the early Soviet space program, although the overtones of "technical excellence" are certainly there.

It's an old Russian word for a travelling companion, someone who joins you on a journey for mutual support and protection. As such, it's a good name both for an artificial satellite, and for a vaccine.

I remember (from third grade) that it simply meant "traveler", but will defer to you or better yet Barbos.
Believing it to mean traveler, I thought that was a bit of a stretch for a vaccine...

Obviously it has very different connotations to Americans, particularly those old enough to remember the artificial satellites and the Cold War; But Americans aren't the intended audience, and aren't as important as they like to think, so nobody cares.

I used to like thinking Americans were "important" until I got to live in Europe (mostly France) for a couple of summers as a teen. I practiced really hard to not sound like an American, and CERTAINLY not to act like one.
But now... any American traveling anywhere should be ready to be frowned upon, belittled, mocked and taunted for coming from Trumpistan.
Now it's Australians' and New Zealanders' turn to look down their noses ...

Sputnik use human variants of the viruses (instead of monkey one)

So it's NOT an mRNA vaccine like the Pfizer and Moderna? The thought of using virus variations to provoke the immune response would be enough to double the number of anti-vax 'Murkins overnight.

 

[barbos]

Sputnik isn't just a proper noun, and doesn't just refer back to the early Soviet space program, although the overtones of "technical excellence" are certainly there.

It's an old Russian word for a travelling companion, someone who joins you on a journey for mutual support and protection. As such, it's a good name both for an artificial satellite, and for a vaccine.

I remember (from third grade) that it simply meant "traveler", but will defer to you or better yet Barbos.
Believing it to mean traveler, I thought that was a bit of a stretch for a vaccine...

Co-traveler:

traveler=putnik
co-traveler = s-putnik -> sputnik

Essentially "satellite"

And it's pronounced spootnik.

Obviously it has very different connotations to Americans, particularly those old enough to remember the artificial satellites and the Cold War; But Americans aren't the intended audience, and aren't as important as they like to think, so nobody cares.

I used to like thinking Americans were "important" until I got to live in Europe (mostly France) for a couple of summers as a teen. I practiced really hard to not sound like an American, and CERTAINLY not to act like one.
But now... any American traveling anywhere should be ready to be frowned upon, belittled, mocked and taunted for coming from Trumpistan.
Now it's Australians' and New Zealanders' turn to look down their noses ...

Sputnik use human variants of the viruses (instead of monkey one)

So it's NOT an mRNA vaccine like the Pfizer and Moderna? The thought of using virus variations to provoke the immune response would be enough to double the number of anti-vax 'Murkins overnight.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_V_COVID-19_vaccine#Technology

The recombinant adenovirus types 26 and 5 are both used as vectors in the vaccine. They were biotechnology-derived and contain the SARS-CoV-2 S protein cDNA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford–AstraZeneca_COVID-19_vaccine#Vaccine_platform

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Not bad for Russia that time of year. In Minnesota, they need to wait three hours for it to thaw.

I wonder if their propaganda efforts might be backfiring.
Russian intelligence reportedly used fake news sites to spread misinformation about coronavirus vaccines

Apparently those efforts are attempting to discredit the "western" (Pfizer, Moderna. J&J) vaccines, while promoting their "Sputnik" product. But the Russian people are less that enthusiastic even about their own vaccine, if reports are to be believed.

My wife has been seeing a lot of crap about the western vaccines in Chinese-language stuff, also. The Chinese vaccine scored very badly so the government is talking shit about the competition. I think it's more directed domestically, though.

Sputnik V is just more sophisticated(better) version of AstraZeneca. Sputnik use human variants of the viruses (instead of monkey one) and it is also a combination of two different instead of one - two different shots.

But note that the AstraZeneca isn't on a pair with the mRNA vaccines and since they're using a viral vector you run the risk of the body turning on the vaccine and rendering boosters pretty much useless.

 

[barbos]

But note that the AstraZeneca isn't on a pair with the mRNA vaccines and since they're using a viral vector you run the risk of the body turning on the vaccine and rendering boosters pretty much useless.

Sputnik IS on pair with Pfizer and it uses two different vectors for first and second shot.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine#Adenovirus_vector_vaccines

 

[barbos]

7 day average fell below 10k for daily infection rate in Russia.

 

[Elixir]

7 day average fell below 10k for daily infection rate in Russia.

Russia's daily reporting looks incredibly* regular. But that's a good number. Extrapolated to US population that would be around 23K.
Meanwhile, here in the US (where we have at least one state that chooses not to report cases or deaths for days on end), our 7-day average for daily new cases might fall below 50k some time in the next week or two at the current pace.

* literally




Note the difference in shape recently...

 

[barbos]

Interesting data from Russia.
They randomly tested population in Saint Petersburg, claiming that it is a good representation of all big cities in Russia.
And 50% tested positive now, while only 25% last November.
The official number for infected is only 7% versus this 50%

This thing could be massively asymptomatic or very mild. And the number of infections they report might be really people with specific COVID19 symptoms who decided to call a doctor.

Also, drop in reported new infections does suggest some kind of herd immunity.

On the other hand, Europe is not doing great at all. Looks like they are having new variant which does not care about herd immunity from previous one.
I mean it's so much more contagious that level of herd immunity is simply insufficient to prevent infection among remaining non-infected people

 

[barbos]

Speaking of Sputnik V, EU is slowly moving toward swallowing pride and buying it. Lots of troubles with AstraZeneca and all of the Pfizer vaccine staying in US leaves them no options.

I guess they WOULD have to give Western Ukraine to Russia

 

[Elixir]

Does anyone remember how far "behind" Italy we were at this time last year?
Their 7-day average for new cases has doubled in the last month, showing exactly the pattern that has a lot of US epidemiologists worried (and me too). World stats are up in the last 3 weeks as well.

We (USA) have had a couple of days of less than 50K cases. 7-day average still around 55K, and should keep dropping this week.
If the new case numbers can plateau under 50K/day, we may okay by the time vaccines are readily available for everyone, But if we follow the Italy (or world) pattern, it's going to be a long spring/summer. At least hospitals are less likely to be overrun, given the reduction in percentages of serious/critical cases. But we certainly cannot afford to let cases double in the next month!

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Some states are seeing increases, some small like Idaho and New Hampshire, some not small like Michigan and Minnesota. The increases aren't ginormous, but we'll need a week to see it is a bump on a road to a plateau or another generalized increase. Presumably, with the eldest getting vaccinated earliest, the deaths hopefully cut down dramatically even if the deniers, low ballers, and idiots manage another wave and we hope we don't get a bonus mutation.

Not all states are seeing this increase yet, so it isn't quite time to worry (again). Though with Spring Break and Texas acting like a belligerent fool, who the heck knows. We are racin' to vaccination with the noted idiots being idiots still. Hopefully the ceiling is 600,000 deaths. I forget what the moral victory was for Trump last spring, 100,000?

 

[Elixir]

Some states are seeing increases, some small like Idaho and New Hampshire, some not small like Michigan and Minnesota. The increases aren't ginormous, but we'll need a week to see it is a bump on a road to a plateau or another generalized increase. Presumably, with the eldest getting vaccinated earliest, the deaths hopefully cut down dramatically even if the deniers, low ballers, and idiots manage another wave and we hope we don't get a bonus mutation.

Not all states are seeing this increase yet, so it isn't quite time to worry (again). Though with Spring Break and Texas acting like a belligerent fool, who the heck knows. We are racin' to vaccination with the noted idiots being idiots still. Hopefully the ceiling is 600,000 deaths. I forget what the moral victory was for Trump last spring, 100,000?

I'm not sure there is any ceiling - with all the anti-maskers, anti-vaxers and free-dumb freaks we will likely never be rid of COVID.
Between Feb 22-25, the 7-day new case average increased - the only time that happened since Jan 11-12. Until yesterday, 3/17.
It looks like we're going to be hovering around 50K/day on average for quite a while unless someone can beat some sense into Texas, Florida and their ilk. New York and California seem to be on the steady path as well, even without the same percentage of FOXwashed idiots. Those four states alone will keep case rates and body bag sales robust indefinitely.
It's vexing.

Mrs Elixir has a "friend" who calls herself a shaman, "doesn't believe in" masks or vaccines and has repeatedly boasted of her refusal to "live in fear".
This morning the local county website touted the large percentage of the county population that has been vaccinated, and that person commented "Scary".
I about laughed my ass off. What else are ya gonna do?

 

[Derec]

Does anyone remember how far "behind" Italy we were at this time last year?

No, but that was last year. These days, we are well ahead of Italy.
We have vaccinated ~3x as many people as Italy (23.9 1 dose/13.0 2 doses vs. 8.7/4.0 for Italy) and, if we assume roughly equal ratio of confirmed cases to true cases, we have suffered more infections per capita and thus have a higher rate of natural immunity too.

 

[Elixir]

Does anyone remember how far "behind" Italy we were at this time last year?

No, but that was last year. These days, we are well ahead of Italy.
We have vaccinated ~3x as many people as Italy (23.9 1 dose/13.0 2 doses vs. 8.7/4.0 for Italy) and, if we assume roughly equal ratio of confirmed cases to true cases, we have suffered more infections per capita and thus have a higher rate of natural immunity too.

That looks right, according to this COVID World Tracker ...
And a good thing, too; their new case curve is looking pretty ugly right now. Ours isn't looking the best either, but better than the world as a whole - which is different from the past year.
Still, we're stuck with that 7-day average in the mid 50 thousands and it's looking pretty stubborn at the moment. The anti-mask right and the anti-vax left and right will need to come around before this thing subsides to background noise levels.

Several months ago I said that I didn't believe the US had either the will or the way to put us down below 15k new cases per day by Easter. Noe it seems that I was wrong about the "way" part. We know what to do and have the means to do it. But we are still lacking the collective will.

 

[Elixir]

Looking through that tracker site (linked above)and at the WoM new case curves for each country, it is curious that the only two Countries with greater vaccination rates than the US have vastly different looking recent new case rates. In the UK (featuring 43 vaccinations per hundred people vw US' 36) the curve has dropped and is in a plateau at relatively low levels, much like the US. But Chile, with the "best" vaccination record in the world at 45 vaccination per hundred people, looks like it's experiencing another surge. With less than 5% of their population reported as having been infected vs over 9% in the US and over 6% in the UK, perhaps that's a factor? Is the Brazil variant ravaging them despite the vaccination rate?

 

[barbos]

That looks right, according to this COVID World Tracker

Looks like Russia is only 3.8% vaccinated. Pretty ridiculous considering that Russia registered its own vaccine first.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The US in general, seems to really be in a plateau now. Though a few states are trending up. Michigan is the most pronounced. Other states like New Jersey and Delaware are showing slow increases.

Cases are still relatively high overall, but "manageable" and steady. It is quite something, that this deep into the pandemic, we are still at around a quarter million confirmed infected weekly! And we can hypothesize that states like Texas and Florida and Alabama and Mississippi and Georgia aren't remotely keeping up on Covid these days.

 

[Elixir]

The US in general, seems to really be in a plateau now.

Yup. 7-day average has gone up by an additional thousand cases a day in the last week (as of 3/23, it's at 57,661 - almost exactly the same as two weeks ago).
Between the anti masker and anti-vaxers it's hard to see any further relief in sight.

"Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain" - Schiller

Cases are still relatively high overall, but "manageable" and steady.

Yes, that's the good news. Daily US deaths are just under a thousand a day now (only 10x the Boulder massacre EVERY DAY), while "active cases" and hospitalizations are still declining. But the decline is slowing (esp hospitalizations, which are starting to plateau at levels comparable to last August). Against any other backdrop, this would be a major disaster. Compared to the Trump era though, it's cause for celebration.

 

[Politesse]

The US in general, seems to really be in a plateau now. Though a few states are trending up. Michigan is the most pronounced. Other states like New Jersey and Delaware are showing slow increases.

Cases are still relatively high overall, but "manageable" and steady. It is quite something, that this deep into the pandemic, we are still at around a quarter million confirmed infected weekly! And we can hypothesize that states like Texas and Florida and Alabama and Mississippi and Georgia aren't remotely keeping up on Covid these days.

I suspect that those who invented the "purple/red/orange" system in the first place never imagined that at some point the country being mostly in the red would be treated as having achieved victory over the virus.

Sometimes I think about all the racist shit that went out openly over our airwaves during the two Ebola crises, bemoaning how anyone could ever be so mindlessly stupid as to break quarantine rules or voluntarily refuse free treatments from the WHO. Well, now we know, I guess! We handled this threat so much worse than Ghana, Mali, Burkina Faso et al ever did.

 

[Elixir]

7-Day new case average is higher than it has been for over two weeks.
I think maybe @Derec should throw in the towel on our bet. 10 days until Easter, and he is betting on a 75% decline in new cases while the last ten days have seen nothing but increases.

ETA: A correction -

Daily US deaths are just under a thousand a day now (only 10x the Boulder massacre EVERY DAY)

It's actually 100x Boulder shootings EVERY DAY.

 

[Elixir]

I will offer a prediction that you will no doubt find crazy. By Easter, i.e. April 4th, the new daily cases (7 day average as always) will be as follows:

Worst case scenario: 15-30k/d
Most likely scenario: 5-15k/d
Best case scenario: <5k/d

It appears to me that when I wake up a week from Monday, the 7-day Average for Easter Sunday will easily exceed your "worst case" scenario, @Derec.
Would you like to go double or nothing on that? Step up now if you want to take me up on that.
Or you can just pull out your credit card and send TFT the $100; Zipr will notify me when it is received.
Thank you - I'm sorry your "predictions" turned out to be Happy Talk.