The World-O-Meter Thread

[Politesse]

I admit that I was wrong too - for one thing I predicted that the 7-day new case average would be between 2 and 4 times your prediction by Easter. Now it looks like it will exceed 4x.
I was also quite surprised by the rapidity of the decline after mid January, and the suddenness with which it leveled off and then began rising again.
But the bottom line is that our bet is OVER.

World-o-Meters logged 60,066 new US cases cases yesterday.
It's up to 46,860 today.

That's 106,926 cases already for the week leading up to Easter Sunday, 4/4.
So even if there are zero more cases for the rest of eternity, unless some already reported cases are un-reported (that doesn't happen IME) the 7-day average on 4/4 will exceed 15,000.

(106,926/7=15,275)

@Derec, please pull out your credit card and call in a $100 donation to TFT (in the name of "Elixir", please)
Zipr will let me know when it's received.
Thank you.

I suspect TFT will get its check right around the time Elizabeth Warren gets her check for proving her ancestry (at the possible cost of her presidential bid!) to 45.

 

[Politesse]

I was horrified but not surprised to learn that cases have once again surged in Stanislaus County where I usually commute to work. It was one of those disappointing things where no new cases were reported yesterday, but then wham, 200 new ones today. The hospitals still don't have beds; they are one of the last California counties to move out of the purple category yet even under the revised rules, and I am feeling very pessimistic about the odds of getting my classroom back any time soon.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

France surpassed Russia in total number of infections.
And Russia fell below 8K in 7 day average. Death rate does not fall much, though.

If the death rate isn't down then the infection rate is probably bad data.

 

[Elixir]

If the death rate isn't down then the infection rate is probably bad data.

It's a sure thing that infections data are bad. Testing would have to be constant and universal for it not to be. But as they say... dead men don't lie.

I suspect TFT will get its check right around the time Elizabeth Warren gets her check for proving her ancestry (at the possible cost of her presidential bid!) to 45.

I don't want Derec's money, but TFT can probably use it. I think he will remit. I don't agree much with Derec, but that doesn't make him a slimeball. I'd be disappointed if he didn't man up.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

7,000+ new cases in Michigan today. What is happening there that isn't happening elsewhere. New daily cases are shooting up. 7000+ today, 5400 a week ago, 3700 two weeks ago. Not a spike, but definitely a surge. It is reported the people coming in are 40s and 50s. I have a hard time thinking Michigan is a special case unless we have a variant there.

 

[ZiprHead]

7,000+ new cases in Michigan today. What is happening there that isn't happening elsewhere. New daily cases are shooting up. 7000+ today, 5400 a week ago, 3700 two weeks ago. Not a spike, but definitely a surge. It is reported the people coming in are 40s and 50s. I have a hard time thinking Michigan is a special case unless we have a variant there.

It's weird. Midland county is very white, very middle and upper middle class. It's the home of Dow Chemical so lots of engineers and scientists. I live in Saginaw county just SE of Midland. Much more lower class and poorer, lots more minorities. Last I checked a couple days ago, Midland county has twice the cases of covid Saginaw county does. Maybe those wealthy white folks feel more indestructible than us poor folks in Saginaw.

 

[Elixir]

7,000+ new cases in Michigan today. What is happening there that isn't happening elsewhere. New daily cases are shooting up. 7000+ today, 5400 a week ago, 3700 two weeks ago. Not a spike, but definitely a surge. It is reported the people coming in are 40s and 50s. I have a hard time thinking Michigan is a special case unless we have a variant there.

Looks pretty consilient with the national picture. 7-day avg is now over 65k and climbing, up about 10k from the low a couple of weeks ago. MI looks like a major contributor to the trend, but lost of States are seeing increases. NY and FL are on the upswing, and PA looks terrible. Even my home State (CO) is up 35-40% in the last two weeks. Anti-vaxers and anti-maskers are still lapping up Russian/Trumpian propaganda, and we are all still paying the price.

 

[James Brown]

In my neighborhood, a truck has this on a bumper sticker:

"I hope Russia tricks me into voting for Trump again."

I don't know what to think about that.

 

[barbos]

France surpassed Russia in total number of infections.
And Russia fell below 8K in 7 day average. Death rate does not fall much, though.

If the death rate isn't down then the infection rate is probably bad data.

Faking statistics would be hard and at this point pointless. But, as I said, rather slow decline in death rate is suspicious.

 

[Derec]

Looks pretty consilient with the national picture. 7-day avg is now over 65k and climbing, up about 10k from the low a couple of weeks ago. MI looks like a major contributor to the trend, but lost of States are seeing increases. NY and FL are on the upswing, and PA looks terrible. Even my home State (CO) is up 35-40% in the last two weeks.

Michigan is crazy. Not sure what is going there. A lot of variant? A lot more testing? People throwing caution to the wind? In any case, all the counties in the "thumb" of the mitten are red or deep red on this map, with deep red indicating >100 cases/100,000/d. Red and deep red counties are isolated and sparsely populated on the rest of the map, so Michigan is definitely an outlier.

I still think this will prove to be a bump and not a surge.

We are adding ~65k in new confirmed cases, so maybe .25M in actual cases per day. At the same time, over ~1.4M people equivalents are getting vaccinated per day. So we are increasing the number of immune people by close to 2M. So I am still optimistic, even though my prediction was overly optimistic a few months ago (I picked the wrong Easter damn it!) By May 1st, we should be at ~50% people having received at least one dose.

Anti-vaxers and anti-maskers are still lapping up Russian/Trumpian propaganda, and we are all still paying the price.

1. Cumulative vaccination fraction is still way too low (~30% for at least one dose) for anti-vaxers to play any meaningful role here. After 50-60% got their first dose, that will change. But by that time, we should finally be very close to full herd immunity. "Natural immunity" is ~40%, add 50% from vaccinations, minus ~20% estimated overlap and you are right there at 70%.

2. Anti-maskers are a real problem. As is general sense of pandemic fatigue. Not a good combination with variants.

3. Damn, Trump really is living rent-free in your head. He was evicted from public housing months ago. Time for you to do the same.

 

[Derec]

I suspect TFT will get its check right around the time Elizabeth Warren gets her check for proving her ancestry (at the possible cost of her presidential bid!) to 45.

You mean the "proof" that she may be as much as 1/1024 a Cherokee princess? I do not think that is a fair comparison. Sadly, Elixir's numbers are much more convincing than Fauxcachontas'.

 

[Derec]

I was horrified but not surprised to learn that cases have once again surged in Stanislaus County where I usually commute to work. It was one of those disappointing things where no new cases were reported yesterday, but then wham, 200 new ones today. The hospitals still don't have beds; they are one of the last California counties to move out of the purple category yet even under the revised rules, and I am feeling very pessimistic about the odds of getting my classroom back any time soon.

Stanislaus County is currently at only 14 cases per 100,000. That is not higher than the rest of the state and below the average for US (~20 cases/100,000/day).

 

[Derec]

I don't want Derec's money, but TFT can probably use it. I think he will remit. I don't agree much with Derec, but that doesn't make him a slimeball. I'd be disappointed if he didn't man up.

I will, unless you want to go double or nothing until the Orthodox Easter.

 

[Jokodo]

(I picked the wrong Easter damn it!)

I suppose you refer to Orthodox/Julian Easter 2021, but arguably Easter '22 is more realistic...

 

[Politesse]

I was horrified but not surprised to learn that cases have once again surged in Stanislaus County where I usually commute to work. It was one of those disappointing things where no new cases were reported yesterday, but then wham, 200 new ones today. The hospitals still don't have beds; they are one of the last California counties to move out of the purple category yet even under the revised rules, and I am feeling very pessimistic about the odds of getting my classroom back any time soon.

Stanislaus County is currently at only 14 cases per 100,000. That is not higher than the rest of the state and below the average for US (~20 cases/100,000/day).

Yes, I'm still hopeful that the numbers will contiinue to relent generally.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

France surpassed Russia in total number of infections.
And Russia fell below 8K in 7 day average. Death rate does not fall much, though.

If the death rate isn't down then the infection rate is probably bad data.

Faking statistics would be hard and at this point pointless. But, as I said, rather slow decline in death rate is suspicious.

I'm not saying a deliberate fake, just bad data.

 

[bilby]

I was horrified but not surprised to learn that cases have once again surged in Stanislaus County where I usually commute to work. It was one of those disappointing things where no new cases were reported yesterday, but then wham, 200 new ones today. The hospitals still don't have beds; they are one of the last California counties to move out of the purple category yet even under the revised rules, and I am feeling very pessimistic about the odds of getting my classroom back any time soon.

Stanislaus County is currently at only 14 cases per 100,000. That is not higher than the rest of the state and below the average for US (~20 cases/100,000/day).

"Only".

We just had a three day lockdown here in Greater Brisbane, because after months of zero cases, we had a day of 1.6 cases per million per day (not counting quarantined arrivals from overseas).

The three days allowed for full contact tracing of all known cases, including genomic testing of the virus to confirm that the assumed source of infection in each case was correct. All close contacts of confirmed cases are now in isolation, and we will have a two week period during which it is mandatory to wear a mask outside the home. If no further cases emerge in that two week period, we will return to "normal", with no restrictions other than a requirement to register attendance at public places (such as bars or restaurants). Those registrations are to assist contact tracing in the event of another outbreak.

This outbreak has been traced back to hospital staff working with infected overseas arrivals.

This is what "only" looks like in a pandemic. If you're accepting that there are some infectious people out and about, unaware of their infectious status, and permitted to mingle with the community, no numbers of infections are "only".

 

[Elixir]

I don't want Derec's money, but TFT can probably use it. I think he will remit. I don't agree much with Derec, but that doesn't make him a slimeball. I'd be disappointed if he didn't man up.

I will, unless you want to go double or nothing until the Orthodox Easter.

Four weeks later, you expect a 75+% decline? Sounds like easy money. But again... please just go ahead and send zipr the hundred. I didn't think you would reneg.
Of course, if May2 rolls around and you feel badly about the fact that the US 7-day average is still in the 20-40k/day range, go ahead and send TFT some more money as penance.

I don't want to play gotcha or make a career out of fleecing the gullible on the issue: I would just like the Happy Talk to ease up so people aren't thinking we have beaten this thing.
There is still a massive reservoir of COVID virus out there in the human population, and with every passing day, every asymptomatic antivaxer/anti-masker, the probability increases of the emergence of a deadly virulent strain.
We will be lucky at this point if the worldwide infection rate EVER drops below 50k/day. Last time the world was at that level (reported) was a year and four days ago.

 

[ZiprHead]

Today in Michigan:

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Today in Michigan:

View attachment 32627

This is useless without a scale.