McCarthy went to speak with Trump in person.
Anyone who thinks Trump is done hasn't been paying attention. 2016 was a wake up call. The number of votes he received while running against a stalwart moderate Democrat was another wake up call. His insurrection going unpunished by the GOP was another. Trump isn't done. The GOP just won't make it happen. At the moment, Trump is the only position the right-wing appears to care about.
And unlike the Neocons, the world really does seem to operate different for Trump.
Trump isn't "done" yet, but if i were the GOP, I'd be very concerned about the wisdom of hitching their wagon to him in the long term. Yes, he got a lot of votes against a stalwart moderate Democrat. Yes, he bulldozed over stalwart Republicans to win the nomination. But now they're in a bind. Trump - and folks like Gaetz and Greene trying to out-crazy Trump - really fire up the base and make a lot of noise, but elections are won through turnout, swing voters, and pocketbook issues.
In 2020, Trump lost swing voters very badly, the Democrats won the turnout ground game, and the fact that we were in an economic pit following a bungled pandemic response didn't help. Yet despite getting shellacked in not only the Presidential race, but losing the Senate and House, the GOP kinda has to stick with the guy who lost them everything. They're between a rock and a crazed Trump base. If they waver even a little, his supporters get out the noose. If they stick with him, they could lose again. Remember, he lost to "sleepy Joe." The most milquetoast, moderate, unoffensive choice the Democrats could muster. In normal times, this would cause a political party to reevaluate their approach or face another defeat. The Republicans can't do that, or they alienate the Red Hats and lose even more bigly.
On top of that, we've got next year's election. Conventional wisdom is that the incumbent President's party loses seats - and sometimes one or both houses of Congress - in the mid terms. This is usually because all the sunshine and rainbows (or hope and change) campaign promises don't manifest themselves in the short two years available, and so voters - especially swing voters - can be swayed. 2010 was basically a referendum on Obama's handling of the post Great Recession, and while slow and steady may win the race for a tortoise, it doesn't work in the "what have you done for me lately" world of US politics.
This time might be very different. If the pandemic recovery continues at it's present pace, those pocketbooks are going to be a lot fatter a year from now, the swing voters will be coming off a year of the kids back in school, being back in the office, going back to sporting events and concerts, and life returning to "normal," with a booming stock market, low unemployment, and other economic indicators going strong for a long time. If (and this is a very big Delta Variant if) this trend continues, then all the Democrats have to do in order to win 2022 is very loudly take credit for all of it, and remind those swing voters where they were under Trump. Even if they're only able to eke out a win, it will put Trump and Trumpism even farther away in the rear view mirror. If sticking with Trump loses them another election, is the Grand Old Party going to stick with him until 2024?
There's only been one President who lost an election and then came back to win again 4 years later. Is Trump really going to be the next Grover Cleveland? I have my doubts.
