Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly

[whichphilosophy]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_most-draw8


Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1984.

When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision. Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.

And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win.

The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are:

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

The good news is that if Trump does win, it will mean that Hilary wont so maybe not such a bad thing.

 

[iolo]

The Thousand Year Reich looms, hey? The last one went twelve or so, God help us all!

 

[whichphilosophy]

The Thousand Year Reich looms, hey? The last one went twelve or so, God help us all!

There's always Clintler to create havoc in another Middle Eastern country.

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The Thousand Year Reich looms, hey? The last one went twelve or so, God help us all!

There's always Clintler to create havoc in another Middle Eastern country.

 

[Elixir]

There's always Clintler to create havoc in another Middle Eastern country.

- - - Updated - - -

The Thousand Year Reich looms, hey? The last one went twelve or so, God help us all!

There's always Clintler to create havoc in another Middle Eastern country.

You can say that again!
Better we just "bomb the crap out them". Keeps bomb-makers gainfully employed.

 

[credoconsolans]

The title is a bit alarming. 30 years is true, but that equates to 8 residential elections.

And considering Trump is not your average Republican candidate, I think that will skew his results.

 

[Harry Bosch]

There's always Clintler to create havoc in another Middle Eastern country.

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There's always Clintler to create havoc in another Middle Eastern country.

You can say that again!
Better we just "bomb the crap out them". Keeps bomb-makers gainfully employed.

Yea, I'm sure that Trump's strategy of invasion with US troops, occupation, kill family members, and take their resources will bring stability to the ME!!

 

[laughing dog]

The title is a bit alarming. 30 years is true, but that equates to 8 residential elections.

And considering Trump is not your average Republican candidate, I think that will skew his results.

One can only hope.

 

[Random Person]

Lichtman correctly predicted the popular vote, which is of limited utility.

If his model picked Al Gore I'm gonna call it a miss.

 

[Deepak]

Sadly, since the buyout of Weekly Reader by Scholastic we don't have that poll to rely on anymore.

I think Scholastic is running an open online poll which is of limited utility.

 

[whichphilosophy]

You can say that again!
Better we just "bomb the crap out them". Keeps bomb-makers gainfully employed.

Yea, I'm sure that Trump's strategy of invasion with US troops, occupation, kill family members, and take their resources will bring stability to the ME!!

The idea that Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi (with 700 idle war planes) would not be a bad idea as long as it didn't back ISIS. Putting US troops on the ground to fight ISIS (even if paid by the Middle East) is not such a good idea however.

Unfortunately years of invasions has led the US into a bit of a predicament.

 

[iolo]

There's always Clintler to create havoc in another Middle Eastern country.

- - - Updated - - -



There's always Clintler to create havoc in another Middle Eastern country.

You can say that again!
Better we just "bomb the crap out them". Keeps bomb-makers gainfully employed.

Heil Trump and Death to Humanity, hey? As a master race you resemble drunken toads.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1984.

Interesting that it is stated that he predicted the winner of the 'popular vote'. As we know, the winner of the popular vote doesn't always win the election. If he had predicted the winner of every election, surely that would be stated. So, that must mean he hasn't predicted the winners of the elections.

 

[blastula]

The good news is that if Trump does win, it will mean that Hilary wont so maybe not such a bad thing.

Yeah maybe Trump will nuke Europe like he says he hasn't ruled out. Would be good news for everyone.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1984.

Interesting that it is stated that he predicted the winner of the 'popular vote'. As we know, the winner of the popular vote doesn't always win the election. If he had predicted the winner of every election, surely that would be stated. So, that must mean he hasn't predicted the winners of the elections.

That would still entail that he predicted correctly the winner of the election (if he used the prediction of the popular vote to make a prediction on the election) except in the case of Bush vs. Gore, but Bush's victory required SCOTUS assistance.

 

[Cobalt]

Meh. Somebody has to win a coin flipping tournament. Color me unimpressed.

 

[whichphilosophy]

Meh. Somebody has to win a coin flipping tournament. Color me unimpressed.

Maybe that's how he really predicted the winners and got lucky each flip.

 

[untermensche]

Yea, I'm sure that Trump's strategy of invasion with US troops, occupation, kill family members, and take their resources will bring stability to the ME!!

The idea that Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi (with 700 idle war planes) would not be a bad idea as long as it didn't back ISIS. Putting US troops on the ground to fight ISIS (even if paid by the Middle East) is not such a good idea however.

Unfortunately years of invasions has led the US into a bit of a predicament.

Saudi Arabia is a brutal dictatorship that fosters religious fundamentalism.

It is a huge problem.

But it is a partner with some US business interests and allows the right US businessmen to get very rich, so this grotesque dictatorship is actually protected and supported by the US government.

Hillary will be business as usual.

Trump is an insane know-nothing that is extremely dangerous.

 

[whichphilosophy]

The idea that Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi (with 700 idle war planes) would not be a bad idea as long as it didn't back ISIS. Putting US troops on the ground to fight ISIS (even if paid by the Middle East) is not such a good idea however.

Unfortunately years of invasions has led the US into a bit of a predicament.

Saudi Arabia is a brutal dictatorship that fosters religious fundamentalism.

It is a huge problem.

But it is a partner with some US business interests and allows the right US businessmen to get very rich, so this grotesque dictatorship is actually protected and supported by the US government.

Hillary will be business as usual.

Trump is an insane know-nothing that is extremely dangerous.

Indeed Saudi is, and we armed it to the teeth with the latest modern weaponry technology. For Hilary surely business as usual would also equate to dangerous insane policies.

 

[untermensche]

Saudi Arabia is a brutal dictatorship that fosters religious fundamentalism.

It is a huge problem.

But it is a partner with some US business interests and allows the right US businessmen to get very rich, so this grotesque dictatorship is actually protected and supported by the US government.

Hillary will be business as usual.

Trump is an insane know-nothing that is extremely dangerous.

Indeed Saudi is, and we armed it to the teeth with the latest modern weaponry technology. For Hilary surely business as usual would also equate to dangerous insane policies.

Easy for you to say.

She would be saddled with the weight of decades of bad US policy.

What exactly can she do to the Saudi dictatorship at this point? Attack it? Pull out US business interests? They will be replaced by Chinese business interests.

The only coherent plan to deal with Saudi Arabia is massive research into alternative energy sources.

Trump's foreign policy is to do whatever he pulls out of his ass today. He has no plan, no coherent picture, no knowledge of history. He is a dangerous bull to let loose with real power anywhere.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

Trump will not win this election, but Clinton can lose it.