SLD
Contributor
I hate to be negative, but the polls just aren't showing enough for Harris to pull this out - in the end, I see a few key states breaking Trump's way and he ekes it out. She has to win both Michigan and Pennsylvania and I am very, very skeptical.
I think that Harris just has too many negatives for people to support her. According to some polls, something like 1/4 of African-American males will not vote for her and many will support Trump. There's just a negative that she's a woman.
Second, polls tend to overestimate support for African-Americans and women in races. There is a tendency not to admit that you're not going to vote for an African American or a woman because you fear being labelled. There's just too much residual racism and sexism in the country for her to get elected. In the end, I see a lot of people holding their nose and voting for Trump. Furthermore, Trump has historically underperformed in polls and over performed in the election results. It happened undeniably in 2016, but in 2020 as well - although to a lesser extent.
Third, it's all about the base. While there are a lot of people enthusiastic for her election, I just don't know if it's enough - especially if African-American males don't really support her as strong as they need to. It will be soooo close in places like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Fourth, there's also been a small, but possibly important, shift in the Electoral College towards Republicans. Traditionally strong Republican strongholds have picked up a net of 3 electoral votes, including 2 in Texas and 1 each in Montana, Florida and North Carolina (they lost two elsewhere). Traditionally Democratic states have lost 1. Swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania each lost one. This handicaps Harris slightly - and the slightest handicap is all it takes.
Using an interactive map, I figure it all boils down to Michigan and Pennsylvania. Both of which I remain skeptical Harris can carry. But possibly. Polling right now shows her ahead a bit in Michigan, but Pennsylvania flips around too much to determine. So given that polls are likely under counting Trump again, I don't see her winning both which is required for her to get over 270. Here's my EV prediction (don't pay attention to the shade of the color):
I think that Harris just has too many negatives for people to support her. According to some polls, something like 1/4 of African-American males will not vote for her and many will support Trump. There's just a negative that she's a woman.
Second, polls tend to overestimate support for African-Americans and women in races. There is a tendency not to admit that you're not going to vote for an African American or a woman because you fear being labelled. There's just too much residual racism and sexism in the country for her to get elected. In the end, I see a lot of people holding their nose and voting for Trump. Furthermore, Trump has historically underperformed in polls and over performed in the election results. It happened undeniably in 2016, but in 2020 as well - although to a lesser extent.
Third, it's all about the base. While there are a lot of people enthusiastic for her election, I just don't know if it's enough - especially if African-American males don't really support her as strong as they need to. It will be soooo close in places like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Fourth, there's also been a small, but possibly important, shift in the Electoral College towards Republicans. Traditionally strong Republican strongholds have picked up a net of 3 electoral votes, including 2 in Texas and 1 each in Montana, Florida and North Carolina (they lost two elsewhere). Traditionally Democratic states have lost 1. Swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania each lost one. This handicaps Harris slightly - and the slightest handicap is all it takes.
Using an interactive map, I figure it all boils down to Michigan and Pennsylvania. Both of which I remain skeptical Harris can carry. But possibly. Polling right now shows her ahead a bit in Michigan, but Pennsylvania flips around too much to determine. So given that polls are likely under counting Trump again, I don't see her winning both which is required for her to get over 270. Here's my EV prediction (don't pay attention to the shade of the color):
