SLD
Contributor
Polling data is insane. There's no way to really do good scientific polling anymore. Cell phones have totally changed the nature. Maybe they should go out there and randomly talk to people directly. But you'd have to have a wide spread geographic reach in any serious swing state to ensure a relatively accurate count. But I don't trust these online polls. They just indicate who wants to participate and sometimes those are the fringes.Last poll in Maine had Harris up +5 in ME-2. That one race really says a lot for me. Awaiting an update.I hate to be negative, but the polls just aren't showing enough for Harris to pull this out - in the end, I see a few key states breaking Trump's way and he ekes it out. She has to win both Michigan and Pennsylvania and I am very, very skeptical.
I think that Harris just has too many negatives for people to support her. According to some polls, something like 1/4 of African-American males will not vote for her and many will support Trump. There's just a negative that she's a woman.
Second, polls tend to overestimate support for African-Americans and women in races. There is a tendency not to admit that you're not going to vote for an African American or a woman because you fear being labelled. There's just too much residual racism and sexism in the country for her to get elected. In the end, I see a lot of people holding their nose and voting for Trump. Furthermore, Trump has historically underperformed in polls and over performed in the election results. It happened undeniably in 2016, but in 2020 as well - although to a lesser extent.
Third, it's all about the base. While there are a lot of people enthusiastic for her election, I just don't know if it's enough - especially if African-American males don't really support her as strong as they need to. It will be soooo close in places like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Fourth, there's also been a small, but possibly important, shift in the Electoral College towards Republicans. Traditionally strong Republican strongholds have picked up a net of 3 electoral votes, including 2 in Texas and 1 each in Montana, Florida and North Carolina (they lost two elsewhere). Traditionally Democratic states have lost 1. Swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania each lost one. This handicaps Harris slightly - and the slightest handicap is all it takes.
Using an interactive map, I figure it all boils down to Michigan and Pennsylvania. Both of which I remain skeptical Harris can carry. But possibly. Polling right now shows her ahead a bit in Michigan, but Pennsylvania flips around too much to determine. So given that polls are likely under counting Trump again, I don't see her winning both which is required for her to get over 270. Here's my EV prediction (don't pay attention to the shade of the color):
View attachment 47803
Oh... there is a new poll and Trump is up +7. ??? That is an insane swing. They also have Maine at +9 from +17. 2020 Maine was +9, so maybe the UNH poll in August was a dud.
This is what Trafalgar Polling says is their methodology:
The Trafalgar Group delivers our polling questionnaires utilizing a mix of six different methods:
We utilize short questionnaires of nine questions or less based on our perceptions about attenuated attention spans and the need to “accommodate modern busy lifestyles.” Our polls last one to three minutes and are designed to quickly get opinions from those who would not typically participate in political polls.
- Live callers
- Integrated voice response
- Text messages
- Emails
- Digital dial back interface
- Online targeted opt-in digital survey platforms
We have also pioneered methods to accommodate the “Social Desirability Bias.” This allows us to obtain a poll participant’s true feelings in situations where we believe some individuals are not likely to reveal their actual preferences.
Our approach to polling is markedly different from most of the industry. We believe the old system of delivering 20 or more questions via live phone interviews doesn’t fit the modern world. This old system skews toward people who have strong ideology and/or opinions and even worse, those who are bored and looking for someone to talk to. It also fails to address the growing number of people who refuse to share their honest opinion and the new trend of people who refuse to participate or intentionally give false answers because they question who is asking and why.
But I am skeptical of that methodology too. How are they doing live calls? To cell phones? Too easy for people to ignore. Texts and emails? Who's going to respond? Then online targeted opt in digital surveys. Not sure how that is done precisely. Who are they likely to capture?
So polls have proven poor predictors in the last two cycles. In both 2016 and 2020 Trump performed better than the polls suggested. Hillary was the clear polling leader in 2016 - or so they told us. While Biden lead in 2020, his margin of victory was closer than what they were telling us in the polls.
In the end, i just don't see the enthusiasm for Harris enough to push her through in places like rural Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Another factor is how really divided the left is - especially over Israel and Palestine. I said on these boards that the purpose of this attack was to divide the American public - especially the left in swing states like Michigan with large minorities of Muslims. It's working. Many people in America support the rights of Palestinians and they are generally liberal democrats who are pissed at Biden/Harris for their support of Israel. This could have a HUGE impact in Michigan. That's why I think Trump will likely win.
Another factor, mentioned above is the African-American vote. A poll today indicates that of Black voters under 50, 25% will vote for Trump. for Black men, the number is 28%. This is absurd. And again, in key states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan it could hurt her. These races are all so fucking close. Every single vote for Harris is essential and any time any black person votes for Trump it is a serious, serious loss.
So with tepid support from African Americans and the pro Palestinian block likely either not voting, or voting for someone else, I see Harris having serious struggles.