US mid-term elections - 6NOV18

[Max Rockatansky]

In a couple of weeks US voters will have the chance to vote in the Mid-Term elections. While the Republicans seem certain to retain the Senate, the House is still up for grabs. Early voting opened last Monday, so I've already voted. Personally, I'm hoping the Democrats take the House, but the Republicans retain the Senate and am predicting that is how it will turn out. What are your thoughts?


538 predicts 6 in 7 Chance Democrats win control (85.2%) of the House.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It is simply too hard to tell. It comes down to turnout. The party with the best turnout wins. If the Dems can get enough turnout, the Senate isn't impossible, it still isn't likely as North Dakota is spitting out a female Senator that dared to believe a woman.

The Dems should win the House, but with the Gerrymandering, it is hard to tell. 2016 was the greatest blow to the groin I've experienced with an election. It went from triple threat victory to a triple threat loss thanks to some bad calls and despite outgaining the opponents on the field. So I remain very suspect of what polls are telling us. Trump is rallying, telling people to fear the Hondurans, to get them to the poll. That young white men are in danger, go to the polls! Is that enough? It was enough in 2016 to maintain majorities.

The other issue, the BIGGER issue will be beyond the House as the Dems can win upwards of 10 Governorships as well as a handful of Legislatures across the country. Those victories will mean a lot more than not regaining the Senate.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

I think that the Dems will take both the House and the Senate.

For reasons which are completely incomprehensible to me, I continue to have faith in the sanity and reasonableness of the American population, despite all available evidence pointing to how invalid a position that actually is. I tell myself things like "Hey, the surge in early voting means that Dem candidates are going to end up doing better than expected and take some more close races". Then I end up getting all disappointed and saying to myself "Oh ya, these were Americans. Why the fuck did I expect better from them?".

So, my real prediction is that the Dems are going to fail to take either the House or the Senate, but I'm not willing to admit that this is my real prediction because I have this inane and unwarranted belief that Americans will end up doing something that makes sense.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

The bigger question: If the Democrats win both the House and the Senate, will it change anything? I'm 50/50 on that.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

It is simply too hard to tell. It comes down to turnout. The party with the best turnout wins. If the Dems can get enough turnout, the Senate isn't impossible, it still isn't likely as North Dakota is spitting out a female Senator that dared to believe a woman.

The Dems should win the House, but with the Gerrymandering, it is hard to tell. 2016 was the greatest blow to the groin I've experienced with an election. It went from triple threat victory to a triple threat loss thanks to some bad calls and despite outgaining the opponents on the field. So I remain very suspect of what polls are telling us. Trump is rallying, telling people to fear the Hondurans, to get them to the poll. That young white men are in danger, go to the polls! Is that enough? It was enough in 2016 to maintain majorities.

The other issue, the BIGGER issue will be beyond the House as the Dems can win upwards of 10 Governorships as well as a handful of Legislatures across the country. Those victories will mean a lot more than not regaining the Senate.

Agreed 100% on turnout. The demographic with the best turnout is white elderly Americans. I'm 62 and voted early last Monday. Out of about 20 people there I was among the youngest.

The youth vote talks big but is often too busy or too apathetic to vote when the time comes.

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The bigger question: If the Democrats win both the House and the Senate, will it change anything? I'm 50/50 on that.

I think it would stop a lot of the bullshit coming out of the WH. It would also cause the RNC to rethink their priorities.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think that the Dems will take both the House and the Senate.

For reasons which are completely incomprehensible to me, I continue to have faith in the sanity and reasonableness of the American population, despite all available evidence pointing to how invalid a position that actually is. I tell myself things like "Hey, the surge in early voting means that Dem candidates are going to end up doing better than expected and take some more close races". Then I end up getting all disappointed and saying to myself "Oh ya, these were Americans. Why the fuck did I expect better from them?".

So, my real prediction is that the Dems are going to fail to take either the House or the Senate, but I'm not willing to admit that this is my real prediction because I have this inane and unwarranted belief that Americans will end up doing something that makes sense.

What are you talking about?! Americans right now thing health care and covering pre-existing conditions is very important. So I don't see why voting in the GOP in 2016 was counter to that principle at all. It seems like a completely reasonable thing to do.

Farmers can't sell their crops due to tariffs... but hey... they still support Trump because...

RVonse goes on about how the factories are coming back to the US and cites an article that talks about companies looking to move their production from China to other places that aren't the US. And he supports Trump because... OMFG!!!

It is like a horror film. Oh my god, we keep splitting up and dying. What should we do? Let's split up and look around some more in the pitch blackness of dark.

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The bigger question: If the Democrats win both the House and the Senate, will it change anything? I'm 50/50 on that.

Well yeah, the budgeting process will require some level of compromise where the Dems give in 90%, the Republicans -10%, and Jolly Penguin says the Dems just aren't compromising enough.

 

[Elixir]

The bigger question: If the Democrats win both the House and the Senate, will it change anything? I'm 50/50 on that.

I think that even if the Dems only take the house, the Cheato Cabal will be faced with more investigations than they can shake a stick at, and much of the fascist agenda will be slowed. Those investigations will not end up jailing anyone significant, but could tarnish the Republicans' image (is that even possible?) and effect outcomes in 2020.

 

[Worldtraveller]

It is simply too hard to tell. It comes down to turnout. The party with the best turnout wins.

Actually, with the current level of gerrymandering, Dems have to have about 15% more turnout to break even.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

It is simply too hard to tell. It comes down to turnout. The party with the best turnout wins.

Actually, with the current level of gerrymandering, Dems have to have about 15% more turnout to break even.

That's just for the House races, though. They don't gerrymander states - aside from the odd way they split Dakota in two.

 

[RVonse]

It is like a horror film. Oh my god, we keep splitting up and dying. What should we do? Let's split up and look around some more in the pitch blackness of dark.

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The disconnect is obviously due to you watching your horror fiction on CNN and other main stream venues. While at the same time, I am actually experiencing Pleasantville in real life.

Regardless of your politics, the media is corporate owned by 6 global entities now. You can't trust what they tell you anymore.

 

[Worldtraveller]

It is simply too hard to tell. It comes down to turnout. The party with the best turnout wins.

Actually, with the current level of gerrymandering, Dems have to have about 15% more turnout to break even.

That's just for the House races, though. They don't gerrymander states - aside from the odd way they split Dakota in two.

At the federal level, yes, but it's also (sometimes even more so) true at the state level for lots of house and senate districts.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It is simply too hard to tell. It comes down to turnout. The party with the best turnout wins.

Actually, with the current level of gerrymandering, Dems have to have about 15% more turnout to break even.

That's just for the House races, though. They don't gerrymander states - aside from the odd way they split Dakota in two.

Well in states they also make voting harder for the less white-ish peoples.

It is like a horror film. Oh my god, we keep splitting up and dying. What should we do? Let's split up and look around some more in the pitch blackness of dark.

- - - Updated - - -

The disconnect is obviously due to you watching your horror fiction on CNN and other main stream venues. While at the same time, I am actually experiencing Pleasantville in real life.

Regardless of your politics, the media is corporate owned by 6 global entities now. You can't trust what they tell you anymore.

You cited an article to support your 'they are coming back' narrative... but the article made no indication that any but one company even suggested the possibility of moving a portion to the US.

 

[Terrell]

I don't know who will win. I hope it turns blue in at least one house, but I have my doubts. One thing I'll be glad of, is when this election is over so I can watch TV without being inundated with political ads, most of which are negative. I'm not sure if Central Florida still decides who wins FL but we get ads like it does.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't know who will win. I hope it turns blue in at least one house, but I have my doubts. One thing I'll be glad of, is when this election is over so I can watch TV without being inundated with political ads, most of which are negative. I'm not sure if Central Florida still decides who wins FL but we get ads like it does.

Ohio has a couple important races like Florida, but our senate race is a runaway so ads aren't too bad. I can't imagine living in Florida during election time.

 

[Terrell]

I don't know who will win. I hope it turns blue in at least one house, but I have my doubts. One thing I'll be glad of, is when this election is over so I can watch TV without being inundated with political ads, most of which are negative. I'm not sure if Central Florida still decides who wins FL but we get ads like it does.

Ohio has a couple important races like Florida, but our senate race is a runaway so ads aren't too bad. I can't imagine living in Florida during election time.

Yeah, there have been times where there are multiple political ads in a row. It seems to be the worst when watching ESPN, FS1, the other sports networks, or watching football games.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

It is like a horror film. Oh my god, we keep splitting up and dying. What should we do? Let's split up and look around some more in the pitch blackness of dark.

- - - Updated - - -

The disconnect is obviously due to you watching your horror fiction on CNN and other main stream venues. While at the same time, I am actually experiencing Pleasantville in real life.

Regardless of your politics, the media is corporate owned by 6 global entities now. You can't trust what they tell you anymore.

When Toffler wrote “Future Shock” he popularized the term “Information Overload”. We’re seeing examples of this daily from both the media and the Internet. The main problem, IMO, isn’t that people are overloaded with factual information, but that they lack the critical thinking skills to determine fact from fiction, opinion from fact.

If all the cable news sources are reporting that a bomb was sent to Obama, it’s a pretty good bet that a bomb was sent to Obama. If one is saying it’s probably Alt-Right Nazis while another is advancing the idea that it’s a false flag by Soros prior to the election, odds are you’re listening to bullshit.

 

[Elixir]

It is like a horror film. Oh my god, we keep splitting up and dying. What should we do? Let's split up and look around some more in the pitch blackness of dark.

- - - Updated - - -

The disconnect is obviously due to you watching your horror fiction on CNN and other main stream venues. While at the same time, I am actually experiencing Pleasantville in real life.

Regardless of your politics, the media is corporate owned by 6 global entities now. You can't trust what they tell you anymore.

When Toffler wrote “Future Shock” he popularized the term “Information Overload”. We’re seeing examples of this daily from both the media and the Internet. The main problem, IMO, isn’t that people are overloaded with factual information, but that they lack the critical thinking skills to determine fact from fiction, opinion from fact.

If all the cable news sources are reporting that a bomb was sent to Obama, it’s a pretty good bet that a bomb was sent to Obama. If one is saying it’s probably Alt-Right Nazis while another is advancing the idea that it’s a false flag by Soros prior to the election, odds are you’re listening to bullshit.

Good point - when different outlets present conflicting facts, a correction is due from at least one of them - one that is rarely forthcoming. I do think that the sheer sum volume of misinformation plus factual information is more than many individuals can handle, and facilitates an a la carte approach to "fact" selection. I have certainly clicked on or "liked" stuff that turned out to be fake, but have made it a point of focus to try to smell out what's truly rotten. While stuff blowing in from the left is far from pure, it generally has less of the reek of malice that is characteristic of what comes from the right. Apparently one man's rose is another's rotten fish head.

 

[Jayjay]

I would defer to fivethirtyeight instead of using my own "wits" to make any kind of predictions. But keep in mind that in 2016 Trump's chances were around 1 out of 7, and he won anyway. Currently 538 puts the chances of Republicans retaining the house at around 1 out of 5 or 6. It's not that unlikely to happen. Think about it... roll a dice, and if it's one, you get two more years of Trump and Republican Congress. Not the kind of odds to be happy or smug about given what's at stake.

 

[Axulus]

I would defer to fivethirtyeight instead of using my own "wits" to make any kind of predictions. But keep in mind that in 2016 Trump's chances were around 1 out of 7, and he won anyway. Currently 538 puts the chances of Republicans retaining the house at around 1 out of 5 or 6. It's not that unlikely to happen. Think about it... roll a dice, and if it's one, you get two more years of Trump and Republican Congress. Not the kind of odds to be happy or smug about given what's at stake.

His chances were about 30% before election day for the 2016 election. Where are you getting the 1 in 7 from?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/

 

[Deepak]

It is like a horror film. Oh my god, we keep splitting up and dying. What should we do? Let's split up and look around some more in the pitch blackness of dark.

- - - Updated - - -

The disconnect is obviously due to you watching your horror fiction on CNN and other main stream venues. While at the same time, I am actually experiencing Pleasantville in real life.

Regardless of your politics, the media is corporate owned by 6 global entities now. You can't trust what they tell you anymore.

When Toffler wrote “Future Shock” he popularized the term “Information Overload”. We’re seeing examples of this daily from both the media and the Internet. The main problem, IMO, isn’t that people are overloaded with factual information, but that they lack the critical thinking skills to determine fact from fiction, opinion from fact.

If all the cable news sources are reporting that a bomb was sent to Obama, it’s a pretty good bet that a bomb was sent to Obama. If one is saying it’s probably Alt-Right Nazis while another is advancing the idea that it’s a false flag by Soros prior to the election, odds are you’re listening to bullshit.

Some interesting reading on just that topic http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...elling-factual-news-statements-from-opinions/