• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

US mid-term elections - 6NOV18

Predict the results of the 2018 Mid-Terms

  • Republicans retain both the Senate and the House

    Votes: 7 20.6%

  • Republicans lose both the Senate and the House

    Votes: 1 2.9%

  • Republicans retain the Senate, but lose the House

    Votes: 20 58.8%

  • Republicans lose the Senate but retain the House

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I don't know

    Votes: 6 17.6%
  • Total voters
    34
  • Poll closed .
Jimmy Higgins said:
It comes down to turnout. The party with the best turnout wins. .
Click to expand...

:)

Sorry, this is not at your expense but I get a chuckle every time I hear one of the talking heads say this. It reminds me of a football coach (I wish I could remember who) that was being interviewed before a big game. When asked who was going to win the game, the coach looked fairly pensive then said, "well, the way I see it, the team that puts the most points on the board is going to take this game."

This is a line that every talking head political analyst on cable says at least once, though generally more, in every election. The thing is that it is probably the most accurate thing they can say because it is true by definition but it really doesn't say anything.
 
skepticalbip said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
It comes down to turnout. The party with the best turnout wins. .
Click to expand...

:)

Sorry, this is not at your expense but I get a chuckle every time I hear one of the talking heads say this. It reminds me of a football coach (I wish I could remember who) that was being interviewed before a big game. When asked who was going to win the game, the coach looked fairly pensive then said, "well, the way I see it, the team that puts the most points on the board is going to take this game."

This is a line that every talking head political analyst on cable says at least once, though generally more, in every election. The thing is that it is probably the most accurate thing they can say because it is true by definition but it really doesn't say anything.
Click to expand...

The illustrious John Madden - and he wasn't quite so committal

Madden said:
Usually the team with the most points wins the game
Click to expand...
 
Deepak said:
The illustrious John Madden - and he wasn't quite so committal

Madden said:
Usually the team with the most points wins the game
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

AHA, thank you. Apparently my mind embellished a bit over time but it made an impression on me because I thought it was both funny and the perfect answer.
 
I think Republicans will keep the Senate. They'll probably even increase their number of senators by one or maybe two. I'm not sure about the House. Democrats seem to be more likely to take it, but it's too close to call at this point.
 
Jayjay said:
I would defer to fivethirtyeight instead of using my own "wits" to make any kind of predictions. But keep in mind that in 2016 Trump's chances were around 1 out of 7, and he won anyway. Currently 538 puts the chances of Republicans retaining the house at around 1 out of 5 or 6. It's not that unlikely to happen. Think about it... roll a dice, and if it's one, you get two more years of Trump and Republican Congress. Not the kind of odds to be happy or smug about given what's at stake.
Click to expand...

538 predicted a Hillary win based on data before Comey's surprise.
 
Elixir said:
Max Rockatansky said:
When Toffler wrote “Future Shock” he popularized the term “Information Overload”. We’re seeing examples of this daily from both the media and the Internet. The main problem, IMO, isn’t that people are overloaded with factual information, but that they lack the critical thinking skills to determine fact from fiction, opinion from fact.

If all the cable news sources are reporting that a bomb was sent to Obama, it’s a pretty good bet that a bomb was sent to Obama. If one is saying it’s probably Alt-Right Nazis while another is advancing the idea that it’s a false flag by Soros prior to the election, odds are you’re listening to bullshit.
Click to expand...

Good point - when different outlets present conflicting facts, a correction is due from at least one of them - one that is rarely forthcoming. I do think that the sheer sum volume of misinformation plus factual information is more than many individuals can handle, and facilitates an a la carte approach to "fact" selection. I have certainly clicked on or "liked" stuff that turned out to be fake, but have made it a point of focus to try to smell out what's truly rotten. While stuff blowing in from the left is far from pure, it generally has less of the reek of malice that is characteristic of what comes from the right. Apparently one man's rose is another's rotten fish head.
Click to expand...
Some do make corrections, but mainly what we are watching on the cable new networks is about 5 minutes of news and 55 minutes of opinion about the news. IMO, smart people know the difference while those on the backside of the IQ Bell Curve (half of American voters) have no clue about the differences.

Again, this is where it's important to learn critical thinking skills. Example: after the bombs were sent to several Democrats and CNN, Trump blames the media for it with a false accusation. I'm sure there are many idiots ill-informed Americans who believe him.


https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/24/politics/trump-wisconsin-rally-blames-opponents-media/index.html
 
Deepak said:
Max Rockatansky said:
When Toffler wrote “Future Shock” he popularized the term “Information Overload”. We’re seeing examples of this daily from both the media and the Internet. The main problem, IMO, isn’t that people are overloaded with factual information, but that they lack the critical thinking skills to determine fact from fiction, opinion from fact.

If all the cable news sources are reporting that a bomb was sent to Obama, it’s a pretty good bet that a bomb was sent to Obama. If one is saying it’s probably Alt-Right Nazis while another is advancing the idea that it’s a false flag by Soros prior to the election, odds are you’re listening to bullshit.
Click to expand...

Some interesting reading on just that topic http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...elling-factual-news-statements-from-opinions/
Click to expand...

An excellent link. Thanks! Given the differences in demograpics between the viewers of CNN and the viewers of Fox News, I'm sure some conclusions can be drawn there too. :)
 
Loren Pechtel said:
Jayjay said:
I would defer to fivethirtyeight instead of using my own "wits" to make any kind of predictions. But keep in mind that in 2016 Trump's chances were around 1 out of 7, and he won anyway. Currently 538 puts the chances of Republicans retaining the house at around 1 out of 5 or 6. It's not that unlikely to happen. Think about it... roll a dice, and if it's one, you get two more years of Trump and Republican Congress. Not the kind of odds to be happy or smug about given what's at stake.
Click to expand...

538 predicted a Hillary win based on data before Comey's surprise.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the last second Comey announcement as well as the sometimes forgotten fake news story out of NY that the FBI was about to indict the Clintons for their Foundation.
 
I'm going with Republicans retain their positions in both House and Senate due to the Reichstag fire.
 
Axulus said:
Jayjay said:
I would defer to fivethirtyeight instead of using my own "wits" to make any kind of predictions. But keep in mind that in 2016 Trump's chances were around 1 out of 7, and he won anyway. Currently 538 puts the chances of Republicans retaining the house at around 1 out of 5 or 6. It's not that unlikely to happen. Think about it... roll a dice, and if it's one, you get two more years of Trump and Republican Congress. Not the kind of odds to be happy or smug about given what's at stake.
Click to expand...

His chances were about 30% before election day for the 2016 election. Where are you getting the 1 in 7 from?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/
Click to expand...
Bad memory. Thanks for the correction.
 
The bomber appears to have been captured by the FBI. All that is known at this time is he has a criminal history and ties to both NY and FL. (of course, Trump is taking credit for it). How will this effect the election? Some? Not at all? Does it reflect negatively, positively or not at all on Trump?
 
Max Rockatansky said:
The bomber appears to have been captured by the FBI. All that is known at this time is he has a criminal history and ties to both NY and FL. (of course, Trump is taking credit for it). How will this effect the election? Some? Not at all? Does it reflect negatively, positively or not at all on Trump?
Click to expand...
I don't think that there is any significant number of people that had not already decided on how they would vote well before the first bomb was found. I can't see this changing their minds. Of course the talking heads on cable will be doing a lot of spin on this though.
 
Max Rockatansky said:
(of course, Trump is taking credit for it).
Click to expand...

As well he might:
arrested.jpg

Agent Orange probably knew who it was all along!
Either way, he definitely deserves the "credit".

skepticalbip said:
Of course the talking heads on cable will be doing a lot of spin on this though.
Click to expand...

Faux Nooz will be myopically focused on the National Emergency : "Thousands of invaders approaching our southern border! Call out the military! ...
Posse comitatus? Posse WHAT???"
 
Elixir said:
Max Rockatansky said:
(of course, Trump is taking credit for it).
Click to expand...

As well he might:
View attachment 18351

Agent Orange probably knew who it was all along!
Either way, he definitely deserves the "credit".

skepticalbip said:
Of course the talking heads on cable will be doing a lot of spin on this though.
Click to expand...

Faux Nooz will be myopically focused on the National Emergency : "Thousands of invaders approaching our southern border! Call out the military! ...
Posse comitatus? Posse WHAT???"
Click to expand...

That might explain why Donnie backpedaled like a circus clown away from his 0300 Tweet this morning and the capture of "the MAGA Bomber".

- - - Updated - - -

skepticalbip said:
Max Rockatansky said:
The bomber appears to have been captured by the FBI. All that is known at this time is he has a criminal history and ties to both NY and FL. (of course, Trump is taking credit for it). How will this effect the election? Some? Not at all? Does it reflect negatively, positively or not at all on Trump?
Click to expand...
I don't think that there is any significant number of people that had not already decided on how they would vote well before the first bomb was found. I can't see this changing their minds. Of course the talking heads on cable will be doing a lot of spin on this though.
Click to expand...
For most voters, I agree. However, this might motivate the undecideds or the apathetic to make a decision and/or show up on election day.
 
Hm. There's a decent chance the Democrats will take the House but not the Senate.

Implications - a potential for impeachment proceedings in the House that die in the Senate. That should be interesting.

If the Democrats take both, then there could even be a trial in the Senate that fails to convict. That opens up discussion for 2020, depending on how it turns out.

If Democrats take neither, expect a couple more years of "Orange Man Bad" from most news outlets and a few extra articles where the Democrats pretend to engage in self-analysis.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom