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US mid-term elections - 6NOV18

Predict the results of the 2018 Mid-Terms

  • Republicans lose the Senate but retain the House

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    34
  • Poll closed .
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-factor-midterms-polling_us_5bd34ce3e4b0d38b588314a9

Two Thirds of Americans say this election is a referendum om Trump. 52.2% of Americans disapprove of Trump, only 44.4% approve, according to Real Clear Politics tracking polls. Early voting shows massive record turnouts across America. 10 days til November 6th.

No polls on how much this election is a referendum On Mitch McConnell and his plans to slash SS, Medicare and Medicaid.
 
I'm glad they caught the magabomber before anyone got hurt or killed by him. Hopefully they'll prosecute him to the fullest extent of the law.

As for the election. I don't know. It depends on those who dislike Trump turning out & voting Democratic. Where these people live, in terms of state & district also matters. Are they located in states/districts where the Republicans would normally have a small advantage? If so it may make the difference. If they're mostly concentrated in areas that already lean or are solidly Democratic it likely won't make a difference.
 
I would defer to fivethirtyeight instead of using my own "wits" to make any kind of predictions. But keep in mind that in 2016 Trump's chances were around 1 out of 7, and he won anyway. Currently 538 puts the chances of Republicans retaining the house at around 1 out of 5 or 6. It's not that unlikely to happen. Think about it... roll a dice, and if it's one, you get two more years of Trump and Republican Congress. Not the kind of odds to be happy or smug about given what's at stake.

538 predicted a Hillary win based on data before Comey's surprise.

538 make a statistical, not an absolute, prediction. If those reading their site are dumb enough to imagine that '70% chance of victory' means 'We predict that this person will win', then that's a problem with the readers, not the site nor its methodology. 70% chance of winning means you will lose three times out of ten in their simulations; For the actual result to hit one of those 30% of 'less likely' results is not unexpected or remarkable.

A Hillary win in 2016 was the more likely result, given the information available before the votes were cast. And even a very small variation from the actual results, in the most marginal states, could have lead to a Hillary 'landslide'.

People are shit at understanding probability and statistics. The smart money is on the Dems taking the house. But that in no way implies that the GOP cannot hold it, or that if they do, there is necessarily something nefarious going on - To determine whether there is cheating, you need to look for evidence of cheating, not at the prior probability assigned to the eventual result.

Sometimes card players get dealt a great hand. Sometimes they get one by cheating. Only by catching them cheating can you confidently accuse them of being crooked.
 
When Toffler wrote “Future Shock” he popularized the term “Information Overload”. We’re seeing examples of this daily from both the media and the Internet. The main problem, IMO, isn’t that people are overloaded with factual information, but that they lack the critical thinking skills to determine fact from fiction, opinion from fact.

If all the cable news sources are reporting that a bomb was sent to Obama, it’s a pretty good bet that a bomb was sent to Obama. If one is saying it’s probably Alt-Right Nazis while another is advancing the idea that it’s a false flag by Soros prior to the election, odds are you’re listening to bullshit.

Good point - when different outlets present conflicting facts, a correction is due from at least one of them - one that is rarely forthcoming. I do think that the sheer sum volume of misinformation plus factual information is more than many individuals can handle, and facilitates an a la carte approach to "fact" selection. I have certainly clicked on or "liked" stuff that turned out to be fake, but have made it a point of focus to try to smell out what's truly rotten. While stuff blowing in from the left is far from pure, it generally has less of the reek of malice that is characteristic of what comes from the right. Apparently one man's rose is another's rotten fish head.

It's usually pretty easy to spot the news in amongst the nonsense - the trick is to look at whether they are telling you what happened, or how you should feel about what happened.

A news outlet will say something like:

Two people were killed and another three injured today, during a fire at <factory>. Fire crews took over three hours to bring the blaze under control, and a number of nearby businesses had to be evacuated. The cause of the fire is not yet known.

A bullshit outlet would say:

Tragedy today at the <factory>, as a deadly blaze claims the lives of two fathers, leaving their young families in shock. The brave crews from the fire department battled for three hours as the flames threatened to take hold of other businesses nearby. Arson has not been ruled out as a possible cause.

I am often surprised by the inability of my friends to spot the significant difference between these two report styles. Personally, I find it rather offensive that Rupert Murdoch's minions have such a low opinion of me that they imagine I won't find the deaths of other people tragic without them prompting me to have that response.

Indeed, I note that the emotional response required is now almost always the first word of a report - it wouldn't do for the viewer to not know how they are supposed to feel until after they find out what happened, now would it?
 
I am often surprised by the inability of my friends to spot the significant difference between these two report styles. Personally, I find it rather offensive that Rupert Murdoch's minions have such a low opinion of me that they imagine I won't find the deaths of other people tragic without them prompting me to have that response.

Indeed, I note that the emotional response required is now almost always the first word of a report - it wouldn't do for the viewer to not know how they are supposed to feel until after they find out what happened, now would it?

Because I have DodgyFoxtel ;), sometimes after work and I am bored I play a game. I turn on Sky News and see how long I last until Peta Credlin or Andrew Bolt tell me how I must think, me getting the shits and changing the channel. My record is 3:28, but I was distracted because I was heating something up in the microwave.
 
When Toffler wrote “Future Shock” he popularized the term “Information Overload”. We’re seeing examples of this daily from both the media and the Internet. The main problem, IMO, isn’t that people are overloaded with factual information, but that they lack the critical thinking skills to determine fact from fiction, opinion from fact.

If all the cable news sources are reporting that a bomb was sent to Obama, it’s a pretty good bet that a bomb was sent to Obama. If one is saying it’s probably Alt-Right Nazis while another is advancing the idea that it’s a false flag by Soros prior to the election, odds are you’re listening to bullshit.

Good point - when different outlets present conflicting facts, a correction is due from at least one of them - one that is rarely forthcoming. I do think that the sheer sum volume of misinformation plus factual information is more than many individuals can handle, and facilitates an a la carte approach to "fact" selection. I have certainly clicked on or "liked" stuff that turned out to be fake, but have made it a point of focus to try to smell out what's truly rotten. While stuff blowing in from the left is far from pure, it generally has less of the reek of malice that is characteristic of what comes from the right. Apparently one man's rose is another's rotten fish head.

It's usually pretty easy to spot the news in amongst the nonsense - the trick is to look at whether they are telling you what happened, or how you should feel about what happened.

A news outlet will say something like:

Two people were killed and another three injured today, during a fire at <factory>. Fire crews took over three hours to bring the blaze under control, and a number of nearby businesses had to be evacuated. The cause of the fire is not yet known.

A bullshit outlet would say:

Tragedy today at the <factory>, as a deadly blaze claims the lives of two fathers, leaving their young families in shock. The brave crews from the fire department battled for three hours as the flames threatened to take hold of other businesses nearby. Arson has not been ruled out as a possible cause.

I am often surprised by the inability of my friends to spot the significant difference between these two report styles. Personally, I find it rather offensive that Rupert Murdoch's minions have such a low opinion of me that they imagine I won't find the deaths of other people tragic without them prompting me to have that response.

Indeed, I note that the emotional response required is now almost always the first word of a report - it wouldn't do for the viewer to not know how they are supposed to feel until after they find out what happened, now would it?

Agreed on your examples of "fake news" and opinion vs fact, especially the last example about "Rupert Murdoch's minions". Obviously the strategy exists on MSNBC, Daily Kos and other LW outlets just as it does on RW outlets.
 
It's usually pretty easy to spot the news in amongst the nonsense - the trick is to look at whether they are telling you what happened, or how you should feel about what happened.

A news outlet will say something like:

Two people were killed and another three injured today, during a fire at <factory>. Fire crews took over three hours to bring the blaze under control, and a number of nearby businesses had to be evacuated. The cause of the fire is not yet known.

A bullshit outlet would say:

Tragedy today at the <factory>, as a deadly blaze claims the lives of two fathers, leaving their young families in shock. The brave crews from the fire department battled for three hours as the flames threatened to take hold of other businesses nearby. Arson has not been ruled out as a possible cause.

I am often surprised by the inability of my friends to spot the significant difference between these two report styles. Personally, I find it rather offensive that Rupert Murdoch's minions have such a low opinion of me that they imagine I won't find the deaths of other people tragic without them prompting me to have that response.

Indeed, I note that the emotional response required is now almost always the first word of a report - it wouldn't do for the viewer to not know how they are supposed to feel until after they find out what happened, now would it?

Agreed on your examples of "fake news" and opinion vs fact, especially the last example about "Rupert Murdoch's minions". Obviously the strategy exists on MSNBC, Daily Kos and other LW outlets just as it does on RW outlets.

I think a major reason we are seeing so much rise in ideologically driven "news" in the U.S. is that the FCC removed their rule that implemented the FCC Fairness Doctrine in 2011. Since that time all U.S. news agencies seem to have become ever more agenda and opinion driven than news driven.
 
It's usually pretty easy to spot the news in amongst the nonsense - the trick is to look at whether they are telling you what happened, or how you should feel about what happened.

A news outlet will say something like:

Two people were killed and another three injured today, during a fire at <factory>. Fire crews took over three hours to bring the blaze under control, and a number of nearby businesses had to be evacuated. The cause of the fire is not yet known.

A bullshit outlet would say:

Tragedy today at the <factory>, as a deadly blaze claims the lives of two fathers, leaving their young families in shock. The brave crews from the fire department battled for three hours as the flames threatened to take hold of other businesses nearby. Arson has not been ruled out as a possible cause.

I am often surprised by the inability of my friends to spot the significant difference between these two report styles. Personally, I find it rather offensive that Rupert Murdoch's minions have such a low opinion of me that they imagine I won't find the deaths of other people tragic without them prompting me to have that response.

Indeed, I note that the emotional response required is now almost always the first word of a report - it wouldn't do for the viewer to not know how they are supposed to feel until after they find out what happened, now would it?

Agreed on your examples of "fake news" and opinion vs fact, especially the last example about "Rupert Murdoch's minions". Obviously the strategy exists on MSNBC, Daily Kos and other LW outlets just as it does on RW outlets.

I think a major reason we are seeing so much rise in ideologically driven "news" in the U.S. is that the FCC removed their rule that implemented the FCC Fairness Doctrine in 2011. Since that time all U.S. news agencies seem to have become ever more agenda and opinion driven than news driven.

I travel outside the country quite a bit, usually just to Canada and Mexico. One constant is that most countries have an english-version of CNN International. I like CNN International, not a single mention of the Kardashians, a lot less about American politics and, obviously, a more global view of the world.
 
I think a major reason we are seeing so much rise in ideologically driven "news" in the U.S. is that the FCC removed their rule that implemented the FCC Fairness Doctrine in 2011. Since that time all U.S. news agencies seem to have become ever more agenda and opinion driven than news driven.

I travel outside the country quite a bit, usually just to Canada and Mexico. One constant is that most countries have an english-version of CNN International. I like CNN International, not a single mention of the Kardashians, a lot less about American politics and, obviously, a more global view of the world.
I know what you are saying. U.S. news generally spends better than 80% of their programming on Trump and their ideologically driven opinions of what Trump is doing and what they think Trump will do. This is both the right and left driven "news" outlets. This is quite different than what news programming gave us twenty years ago.

There is a lot happening in the world not covered by U.S. media so I generally rely on international news agencies for news.
 
I travel outside the country quite a bit, usually just to Canada and Mexico. One constant is that most countries have an english-version of CNN International. I like CNN International, not a single mention of the Kardashians, a lot less about American politics and, obviously, a more global view of the world.

Ya, it's weird. CNN International is fucking excellent. CNN America just seems to be two groups of partisan dipshits screaming back and forth at each other.
 
Never seen CNN international? How does it compare to the CBC?

Better for international stories and it does a lot of well researched and in depth stories. The only real downside is that sometimes when you're watching it, you remember that this is the same organization which does CNN America and the discordance that creates is unnerving.
 
I think a major reason we are seeing so much rise in ideologically driven "news" in the U.S. is that the FCC removed their rule that implemented the FCC Fairness Doctrine in 2011. Since that time all U.S. news agencies seem to have become ever more agenda and opinion driven than news driven.

I travel outside the country quite a bit, usually just to Canada and Mexico. One constant is that most countries have an english-version of CNN International. I like CNN International, not a single mention of the Kardashians, a lot less about American politics and, obviously, a more global view of the world.
I know what you are saying. U.S. news generally spends better than 80% of their programming on Trump and their ideologically driven opinions of what Trump is doing and what they think Trump will do. This is both the right and left driven "news" outlets. This is quite different than what news programming gave us twenty years ago. I remember the change as a kid when watching Huntley and Brinkley. Some time in the early 70s they reserved a couple minutes at the end to give an "editorial/opinion" piece.

There is a lot happening in the world not covered by U.S. media so I generally rely on international news agencies for news.

It's a money-making operation. CNN tried to stick with pure news and was getting their ass beat regularly by Glenn Beck, Bill O'Reilly and Rachel Maddow so they flipped and joined the pundrity games to see their profits rise.

More than 20 years ago. HBO's "From the Earth to the Moon" touched on it during their Apollo 13 episode. Since Hanks and Howard had already done the Apollo 13 movie, they chose to show it from the groundside. One aspect was between the Walter Cronkite-like old school reporter of "Just the News" and a young punk who wanted to show "the human side" by invading the privacy of the families.
 
It's a money-making operation. CNN tried to stick with pure news and was getting their ass beat regularly by Glenn Beck, Bill O'Reilly and Rachel Maddow so they flipped and joined the pundrity games to see their profits rise.

...which is why they are die-hard capitalist and not really a "left."
 
In a couple of weeks US voters will have the chance to vote in the Mid-Term elections. While the Republicans seem certain to retain the Senate, the House is still up for grabs. Early voting opened last Monday, so I've already voted. Personally, I'm hoping the Democrats take the House, but the Republicans retain the Senate and am predicting that is how it will turn out. What are your thoughts?


538 predicts 6 in 7 Chance Democrats win control (85.2%) of the House.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

I hope the Dems take control of both houses, but doubt that will happen. I voted Reps retain the Senate, Dems take the House.
 
It's a money-making operation. CNN tried to stick with pure news and was getting their ass beat regularly by Glenn Beck, Bill O'Reilly and Rachel Maddow so they flipped and joined the pundrity games to see their profits rise.

...which is why they are die-hard capitalist and not really a "left."

Their niche is center-left, Fox is far right and MSNBC is far left. In an age when practically everyone in America has a choice of dozens of channels, they tend to watch what pleases them most. However, in the end, corporations are all about profit regardless of what they are selling.
 
It's a money-making operation. CNN tried to stick with pure news and was getting their ass beat regularly by Glenn Beck, Bill O'Reilly and Rachel Maddow so they flipped and joined the pundrity games to see their profits rise.

...which is why they are die-hard capitalist and not really a "left."

Their niche is center-left, Fox is far right and MSNBC is far left. In an age when practically everyone in America has a choice of dozens of channels, they tend to watch what pleases them most. However, in the end, corporations are all about profit regardless of what they are selling.

But then CNN, with Don Lemon, looks like it is making a play for MSNBCs far left audience.

It is a shame that the ideological political position of a "news" media can be so easily identified. I gotta wonder if an objective news source would attract an audience. Surely there must be some in the US that would prefer to hear simple facts so they can draw their own conclusions than to be spoon fed what they should believe reality is.
 
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It's a money-making operation. CNN tried to stick with pure news and was getting their ass beat regularly by Glenn Beck, Bill O'Reilly and Rachel Maddow so they flipped and joined the pundrity games to see their profits rise.

...which is why they are die-hard capitalist and not really a "left."

Their niche is center-left, Fox is far right and MSNBC is far left. In an age when practically everyone in America has a choice of dozens of channels, they tend to watch what pleases them most. However, in the end, corporations are all about profit regardless of what they are selling.

Which is why they don't sell what hurts their profits. There is no far left in for-profit news. Far right does not have that constraint.
 
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