RavenSky
The Doctor's Wife
I am horrified and embarrassed that it is only a 25 point gap and the same as previous elections
-
Features
US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race
- Thread starter lpetrich
- Start date
I am horrified and embarrassed that it is only a 25 point gap and the same as previous elections
Jimmy Higgins
Contributor
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2001
- Messages
- 45,986
- Basic Beliefs
- Calvinistic Atheist
This number has been in polls before, and in general, I don't believe it has changed much over the last few months.
angelo
Deleted
Most polls are accurate in an election outcome. But I'm reminded of the last British elections where most polls showed David Cameron's government heading for defeat which didn't eventuate.
whichphilosophy
Contributor
- Joined
- Jun 10, 2004
- Messages
- 6,803
- Basic Beliefs
- Energy is itself a Life form
There is a margin of error allowable.It's difficult when the race is very close. In the BREXIT referendum the indications were that the UK would stay as reflected in most polls throughout the campaign.
Jimmy Higgins
Contributor
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2001
- Messages
- 45,986
- Basic Beliefs
- Calvinistic Atheist
So Clinton is winning Virginia and very tight in Georgia but losing Maine? Yeah, you have a good handle on American Politics.
- - - Updated - - -
The polling was right based on the proportion they thought would likely vote. The idiots turned out in greater numbers that day.
Jimmy Higgins
Contributor
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2001
- Messages
- 45,986
- Basic Beliefs
- Calvinistic Atheist
What do you him to say, Assad will step down in a transition to another Assad ally in 10 or so years and Russia will win out? Do you want the actual truth?
Elixir
Made in America
- Joined
- Oct 22, 2002
- Messages
- 41,239
- Location
- Frozen in Michigan
- Gender
- Old Fart
- Basic Beliefs
- Don't be a dick.
"Make Mark be naked."
[YOUTUBE]https://youtu.be/nRp1CK_X_Yw[/YOUTUBE]
[YOUTUBE]https://youtu.be/nRp1CK_X_Yw[/YOUTUBE]
Using Hollywood elites to advocate against I guy whose popularity is, in part, based on anti-elitism. Well done.
maxparrish
Veteran Member
- Joined
- Aug 30, 2005
- Messages
- 2,262
- Location
- SF Bay Area
- Basic Beliefs
- Libertarian-Conservative, Agnostic.
Clinton is on the cusp of losing this election, and at least Nate Silver sees it. Hillary needs to hold these three swing states (her weakest): NH, Colorado, and Penn. And if polls keep shifting towards Trump, then she is going to have a serious threat.
Here is how it stacks up, today:
Clinton has to AT LEAST do as well as Trump in the debates. If not, she could lose.
Elixir
Made in America
If she can't do at least as well as Trump in the debates, she deserves to lose.
maxparrish
Veteran Member
- Joined
- Aug 30, 2005
- Messages
- 2,262
- Location
- SF Bay Area
- Basic Beliefs
- Libertarian-Conservative, Agnostic.
She should polish the floor with him...BUT Trump has had an uncanny ability to take the lowest road and impress the knuckle draggers. His ability to quip slurs that resonate (Crooked Hillary) are of greater import to the masses than making a logical and coherent argument.
On the other hand, this will be his first one on one debate, he has to be careful with the women, and his campaign staff is trying to keep him on a script. Moreover, for every attack against hillary (e.g. email, her foundation, etc.) she has an equal counter-act (Trump university, Trump foundation, mocking the disabled, etc.).
It's almost too bad that the moderators will eat up time (and give Trump opportunities to dodge). Were this an old fashioned forensic debate, with its cross-exam period, I think Hillary could do a Liz Warren on him (although Warren is the best). I can't imagine Trump having the IQ to cross-exam anyone on policy.
blastula
Contributor
- Joined
- Apr 13, 2006
- Messages
- 9,963
- Gender
- Late for dinner
- Basic Beliefs
- Gnostic atheist
^Poor comprehension. They're advocating to those who don't or shouldn't like Trump to vote. It's not saying anything to Trump supporters or the vague "anti-elitists" where the great orange Richie Rich does not qualify as an elitist.
Lots of Trump supporters in the comments had their feelings hurt though and are vowing to boycott all Marvel movies from now on. Sad!
Last edited:
- Joined
- Oct 22, 2002
- Messages
- 41,239
- Location
- Frozen in Michigan
- Gender
- Old Fart
- Basic Beliefs
- Don't be a dick.
He's (at least claims to be) a multi billionaire. You can't get much more elite than that.
That you think he's anti-elite is your shortcoming.
blastula
Contributor
- Joined
- Apr 13, 2006
- Messages
- 9,963
- Gender
- Late for dinner
- Basic Beliefs
- Gnostic atheist
Clinton is on the cusp of losing this election, and at least Nate Silver sees it. Hillary needs to hold these three swing states (her weakest): NH, Colorado, and Penn. And if polls keep shifting towards Trump, then she is going to have a serious threat.
Here is how it stacks up, today:
Clinton has to AT LEAST do as well as Trump in the debates. If not, she could lose.
Of course she could lose. There hasn't been a time in this race where anyone could say she couldn't. Even if a forecast says she has a 90% chance of winning, that still means she could lose. At this point though, she is in a better position than Trump. She has demographics on her side in the states she needs. Trump has a bigger uphill climb and an unlikelier path. He has had a lower ceiling than she has.
A good portion of the uncertainty is the time left to the election. Something unforseen can happen to turn it in either direction, and sure that does include what happens in the debates. But as we get closer to election day that portion of the uncertainty will go down. A 7 point lead in the last minute of a footbal game is much safer than a 7 point lead in the 3rd quarter.
Also, 538 forecasts right now 280+ electoral votes for her.
maxparrish
Veteran Member
- Joined
- Aug 30, 2005
- Messages
- 2,262
- Location
- SF Bay Area
- Basic Beliefs
- Libertarian-Conservative, Agnostic.
Clinton is on the cusp of losing this election, and at least Nate Silver sees it. Hillary needs to hold these three swing states (her weakest): NH, Colorado, and Penn. And if polls keep shifting towards Trump, then she is going to have a serious threat.
Here is how it stacks up, today:
Clinton has to AT LEAST do as well as Trump in the debates. If not, she could lose.
Of course she could lose. There hasn't been a time in this race where anyone could say she couldn't. Even if a forecast says she has a 90% chance of winning, that still means she could lose. At this point though, she is in a better position than Trump. She has demographics on her side in the states she needs. Trump has a bigger uphill climb and an unlikelier path. He has had a lower ceiling than she has.
A good portion of the uncertainty is the time left to the election. Something unforseen can happen to turn it in either direction, and sure that does include what happens in the debates. But as we get closer to election day that portion of the uncertainty will go down. A 7 point lead in the last minute of a footbal game is much safer than a 7 point lead in the 3rd quarter.
Also, 538 forecasts right now 280+ electoral votes for her.
The forecast is based on slim probabilities that Nate Silver has warned about. When his calculations showed (about five days ago) it as close as 55/45 for Nov 8, that is nearly a toss-up. His current probs for Clinton is back up to 60/40.
Read Nates article, dated today (the 22nd). He explains why her lead isn't that good.
"Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win
Here’s why that isn’t as good as it sounds.
By Nate Silver"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-leading-in-exactly-the-states-she-needs-to-win/
RavenSky
The Doctor's Wife
seriously
angelo
Deleted
Another major terrorist attack in the states would almost assure a Trump victory.
Hey, fingers crossed, buddy!