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US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

This is a bit of a derail, but is this true or has the alt-right just gotten him paranoid?

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Tom Sawyer said:
blastula said:
Poll: After Trump Tape Revelation, Clinton's Lead Up to Double Digits - NBC News
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That's it? Her lead is that small? I get all the partisan and base bullshit, but y'all are taking it too far with this guy.
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I'm not surprised. National polls, as well as the popular vote, don't mean anything in the U.S. It's the state by state results that matter, and last I looked fivethirtyeight has HRC with an 84% chance of winning in their polls only forecast. Nate Silver has the states ordered by margin of lead for each Candidate. If his analysis is correct, and holds, Colorado decides the election in Clinton's favor.
 
Terrell said:
Tom Sawyer said:
That's it? Her lead is that small? I get all the partisan and base bullshit, but y'all are taking it too far with this guy.
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I'm not surprised. National polls, as well as the popular vote, don't mean anything in the U.S. It's the state by state results that matter, and last I looked fivethirtyeight has HRC with an 84% chance of winning in their polls only forecast. Nate Silver has the states ordered by margin of lead for each Candidate. If his analysis is correct, and holds, Colorado decides the election in Clinton's favor.
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Oh, it'd matter for the House. Polling in Texas at Trump's first low from his first meltdown showed a single digit lead, which would be very big in the overall popular vote count. It is the one big state they have to counter Illinois, New York, and California in the popular vote tally. I think a 10 point victory means Clinton can be close to the House. A 15 point would seem to point to a House takeover. Also, there is a desire by some (like me) who want Trump to lose as badly as possible to kill this vile movement in the US. They got their idiot candidate, now the US must trash them for putting him on the ballot.

In the electoral college, Trump won't be Mondale'd, but it is possible, I think for him to receive a lower percentage of the popular vote than Mondale did, but things need to continue going south, as America shows, it has very little in the way of memory. I think a group of women that Trump assaulted on a stage would do it.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Terrell said:
I'm not surprised. National polls, as well as the popular vote, don't mean anything in the U.S. It's the state by state results that matter, and last I looked fivethirtyeight has HRC with an 84% chance of winning in their polls only forecast. Nate Silver has the states ordered by margin of lead for each Candidate. If his analysis is correct, and holds, Colorado decides the election in Clinton's favor.
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Oh, it'd matter for the House. Polling in Texas at Trump's first low from his first meltdown showed a single digit lead, which would be very big in the overall popular vote count. It is the one big state they have to counter Illinois, New York, and California in the popular vote tally. I think a 10 point victory means Clinton can be close to the House. A 15 point would seem to point to a House takeover. Also, there is a desire by some (like me) who want Trump to lose as badly as possible to kill this vile movement in the US. They got their idiot candidate, now the US must trash them for putting him on the ballot.

In the electoral college, Trump won't be Mondale'd, but it is possible, I think for him to receive a lower percentage of the popular vote than Mondale did, but things need to continue going south, as America shows, it has very little in the way of memory. I think a group of women that Trump assaulted on a stage would do it.
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Not necessarily we'll have to see how people vote on a district by district basis. You still have to deal with the issue of gerrymandering since each state gets to draw it's own district lines. The exception to this is the states where there's only 1 congressman, or if a state has a provision in it's constitution prohibiting gerrymandering.
 
Juveniles on Steroids...

Maybe Trump will go on stage wearing a kilt, and then present his ass to the world....yeah probably won't happen, but what a pathetic warrior image that this fat orangutan is...courtesy of Wayne Allyn Root via World-Nut-Daily:
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/...ed-video-of-trump-boasting-of-sexual-assault/
All of this bad stuff, all of these secretly recorded videos, they just make the story better. Trump isn’t a man; he is a folk hero. He’s Paul Bunyan. He’s the Loch Ness Monster. He’s Sir William Wallace, the hero warrior of “Braveheart.”

Yes, Trump’s an animal, a savage – but he’s our animal. He’s our savage. He’s a tough guy fighting viciously for us. And if he’s fighting “dirty”? Great. It’s about time we had someone on our side who brings a bazooka to a gun fight, instead of a knife.

Yes, any other politician would have stepped down, or backed down after that secretly recorded video was released. Trump DOUBLED DOWN. Instead of playing doormat or shrinking violet to Hillary at the debate, even after the release of that terrible video, Trump promised to put her in prison. Are you kidding me? This guy has balls in a nation filled with neutered men.
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Yeah, that bazooka is going to be fired right up the Repug ass this November...
 
Terrell said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
Oh, it'd matter for the House. Polling in Texas at Trump's first low from his first meltdown showed a single digit lead, which would be very big in the overall popular vote count. It is the one big state they have to counter Illinois, New York, and California in the popular vote tally. I think a 10 point victory means Clinton can be close to the House. A 15 point would seem to point to a House takeover. Also, there is a desire by some (like me) who want Trump to lose as badly as possible to kill this vile movement in the US. They got their idiot candidate, now the US must trash them for putting him on the ballot.

In the electoral college, Trump won't be Mondale'd, but it is possible, I think for him to receive a lower percentage of the popular vote than Mondale did, but things need to continue going south, as America shows, it has very little in the way of memory. I think a group of women that Trump assaulted on a stage would do it.
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Not necessarily we'll have to see how people vote on a district by district basis.
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Sure. Gerrymandering will be an issue.

However, winning 15% in the popular will make it harder for local state reps to win. Latino turnout in Texas will be crucial as will angry women voters in suburbs where a lot of gerrymandering occurs to dilute urban voters.
 
funinspace said:
Maybe Trump will go on stage wearing a kilt, and then present his ass to the world....yeah probably won't happen, but what a pathetic warrior image that this fat orangutan is...courtesy of Wayne Allyn Root via World-Nut-Daily:
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/...ed-video-of-trump-boasting-of-sexual-assault/
All of this bad stuff, all of these secretly recorded videos, they just make the story better. Trump isn’t a man; he is a folk hero. He’s Paul Bunyan. He’s the Loch Ness Monster. He’s Sir William Wallace, the hero warrior of “Braveheart.”

Yes, Trump’s an animal, a savage – but he’s our animal. He’s our savage. He’s a tough guy fighting viciously for us. And if he’s fighting “dirty”? Great. It’s about time we had someone on our side who brings a bazooka to a gun fight, instead of a knife.

Yes, any other politician would have stepped down, or backed down after that secretly recorded video was released. Trump DOUBLED DOWN. Instead of playing doormat or shrinking violet to Hillary at the debate, even after the release of that terrible video, Trump promised to put her in prison. Are you kidding me? This guy has balls in a nation filled with neutered men.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that bazooka is going to be fired right up the Repug ass this November...
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That isn't determined yet. The Republicans are still holding hard on the Senate, and could possibly still hold onto the Senate. Trump losing isn't necessarily the GOP losing. The GOP is trying hard to separate themselves from Trump, but Giuliani, Christie, and Sessions are doing their best to keep the GOP attached to Trump.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Terrell said:
Not necessarily we'll have to see how people vote on a district by district basis.
Click to expand...
Sure. Gerrymandering will be an issue.

However, winning 15% in the popular will make it harder for local state reps to win. Latino turnout in Texas will be crucial as will angry women voters in suburbs where a lot of gerrymandering occurs to dilute urban voters.
Click to expand...

It might, but voters do have the option to split their tickets. High minority turnout, not just Latinos, helps the Democrats. Single White females are more likely to vote for the Democrats than MWFs we'll have to see relative turnout among those groups as well.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
The GOP is trying hard to separate themselves from Trump, but Giuliani, Christie, and Sessions are doing their best to keep the GOP attached to Trump.
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And with that lies the possibility that the GOP will lose not only the Senate, but the House as well. (I have mixed feelings about that.) The GOP trying to separate themselves from Trump while holding onto Trump (per Ryan), creates an ill-defined entity that causes everyone from the alt-right to the Sanders-left to vomit a little in their mouth. I don't think there exists a single right-leaning individual (other than possibly Trump) who sees this as a desired outcome, but the GOP has become an uncontrolled and very loose amalgam of disparate ideologies. There is nothing left there for people to rally around.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
funinspace said:
Maybe Trump will go on stage wearing a kilt, and then present his ass to the world....yeah probably won't happen, but what a pathetic warrior image that this fat orangutan is...courtesy of Wayne Allyn Root via World-Nut-Daily:
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/...ed-video-of-trump-boasting-of-sexual-assault/

Yeah, that bazooka is going to be fired right up the Repug ass this November...
Click to expand...
That isn't determined yet. The Republicans are still holding hard on the Senate, and could possibly still hold onto the Senate. Trump losing isn't necessarily the GOP losing. The GOP is trying hard to separate themselves from Trump, but Giuliani, Christie, and Sessions are doing their best to keep the GOP attached to Trump.
Click to expand...
Yeah, nothing is in concrete yet. But polling data should start showing the real trend by this weekend or Monday. Odds were already slightly in the Dems favor for gaining control of the Senate, and I don't see how this isn't going to shift further in their favor in the coming week...
 
Meanwhile in the "Turn it up to 11" douchebaggery catergory...

article said:
Donald Trump tweeted on Tuesday that “the shackles have been taken off” his campaign — a thinly veiled threat suggesting that the final 28 days of the presidential race will be filled with personal attacks. That scorched-earth strategy is on full display in the Trump campaign’s latest ad, which targets Hillary Clinton’s health.

“Our next president faces daunting challenges in a dangerous world,” a voice-over says at the beginning of the ad. “Iran promoting terrorism; North Korea threatening; ISIS on the rise; Libya and North Africa in chaos. Hillary Clinton failed every single time as secretary of state. Now she wants to be president.”


The 30-second spot, titled “Dangerous,” then cuts to clips of Clinton coughing on the stump and being helped up the stairs and into her van.
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No words, should have sent a poet.

Next Trump will have commercial spots saying Clinton is going to try and steal the election.
 
Interesting info from 538

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-women-are-defeating-donald-trump/

Aggregate polling
Clinton leads in womens' votes by 15%.
Trump leads in mens' votes by 5%

A 10% difference, though remember, women vote in larger numbers than men.

In 2012, Obama lead in womens' vote by 8% and Romney lead in mens' votes by 7%

"That’s the difference between a close election — as you’ll remember, those national polls in late 2012 showed the race neck-and-neck3 — and one that’s starting to look like a blowout."

Most interesting stuff to keep in mind when looking at general polls.
 
Political scientists refer to that phenomenon as Revenge of the Pussy.
 
So, how long before Trump starts railing about the "five Jew bankers"? I saw a bit from today and he sounded like Alex Jones regarding a nation with no borders.


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