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US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

fast said:
Trump should openly buy delegate votes. Electoral votes, absolutely not, as that's both illegal and immoral. But, an open offer of a million dollars each sounds like an idea that would further boost his numbers and chances.
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He doesn't actually have enough money to do that. Like pretty much everything else about him, his claimed net worth is a lie.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
angelo said:
The greatest democracy on earth has a voting system that resembles a dogs breakfast. Unless a candidate raises millions of dollars, he/she cannot even get a look in. Does that assure the best person possible is chosen to lead the free world?
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No it doesn't. That's the US system. I don't know who'd be considered the greatest democracy on Earth, but it's not them.
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Technically, not even a true democracy. So, there's that...
 
beero1000 said:
Tom Sawyer said:
No it doesn't. That's the US system. I don't know who'd be considered the greatest democracy on Earth, but it's not them.
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Technically, not even a true democracy. So, there's that...
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Correct. It was specifically set up to be a republic and not a democracy. It's made moves towards a more democratic system over time, such as how people now vote for Senators instead of having the State government appoint them, but it was designed from the beginning to keep power in the hands of the elite and not in the hands of the people.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
beero1000 said:
Technically, not even a true democracy. So, there's that...
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Correct. It was specifically set up to be a republic and not a democracy. It's made moves towards a more democratic system over time, such as how people now vote for Senators instead of having the State government appoint them, but it was designed from the beginning to keep power in the hands of the elite and not in the hands of the people.
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Of course it was.

I mean, have you met the people? They are truly ghastly.
 
fast said:
Trump should openly buy delegate votes. Electoral votes, absolutely not, as that's both illegal and immoral. But, an open offer of a million dollars each sounds like an idea that would further boost his numbers and chances.
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Trump isn't that rich when it comes liquid assets. Most of his holdings are in property and image, and it isn't simple to translate that into capital.
 
I'd like to take the opportunity to point out that in 2008, Obama didn't pull ahead of Hillary until May.

Democrats narrowly avoided a terrible mistake in 2008. Will they make that mistake in 2016? Or will they choose Sanders instead?
 
Jason Harvestdancer said:
I'd like to take the opportunity to point out that in 2008, Obama didn't pull ahead of Hillary until May.
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In the pledged delegate totals, Obama was winning in February. That is why the Superdelegates started moving over. He was leading in pledged delegates most of the way in the race.
Democrats narrowly avoided a terrible mistake in 2008. Will they make that mistake in 2016? Or will they choose Sanders instead?
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In 2016, Clinton has been leading nearly the entire way in pledged delegates. Clinton will win the nomination and the General Election. The only question is will a Trump nomination kill the Republican leadership in the House and Senate.
 
Jason Harvestdancer said:
I'd like to take the opportunity to point out that in 2008, Obama didn't pull ahead of Hillary until May.

Democrats narrowly avoided a terrible mistake in 2008. Will they make that mistake in 2016? Or will they choose Sanders instead?
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But Clinton is way further ahead of Sanders than she was of Obama. Obama had a path to victory at this point and Sanders doesn't. Also, choosing Clinton isn't a mistake. She'll be a competent and effective President.
 
If you don't particularly like Clinton, think of it as voting for three Supreme Court Justices, and somebody who does not believe in Arthur Laffer's ideas.
 
The winners in New York State were two favorite children, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton -- both sexes of favorite child.

Jeb Bush endorses Ted Cruz for president - CNNPolitics.com
"Ted is a consistent, principled conservative who has demonstrated the ability to appeal to voters and win primary contests," Bush said in a statement provided to CNN. "Washington is broken, and the only way Republicans can hope to win back the White House and put our nation on a better path is to support a nominee who can articulate how conservative policies will help people rise up and reach their full potential."
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Back when he was still in the race,
During the campaign, Bush did not cloak his contempt for Trump, who he described as a "bully" and "not a conservative."
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On April 26: CT, DE, MD, PA, RI -- D: 384, R: 172 delegates

The front runners are Clinton with 1941 delegates and Trump with 846 delegates. In the best case for both of them, Clinton will get 2325 and Trump 1018 delegates. Their victory margins are 2383 and 1237 delegates, meaning that neither would win at this stage. A more likely outcome for Clinton would be 2133 to 2299 delegates (1/2 to 3/4 of the new one).

On May 3 is IN, with D: 83 and R: 57.
On May 7 is Guam, with D: 7
On May 10 is D: WV 29 and R: NE and WV 70
On May 17 is D: KY and OR 116 and R: OR 28
On May 24 is R: WA 44

So there is a good likelihood of Clinton getting a victory margin by mid-May. Trump, however, will get close to it by the end of that month, but he will not pass it.

On June 4 is the US Virgin Islands with D: 7
On June 5 is Puerto Rico with D: 60
On June 7 is D: CA, MT, NJ, NM, ND, and SD 694 and R: CA, MT, NJ, NM, and SD with 303
On June 14 is the District of Columbia with D: 20

The two parties' national conventions start July 18 (R) and July 25 (D).

The Democratic Party's one will almost certainly be a Clinton coronation, while there is still a chance that the Republican Party's one will be a brokered one and not a Trump coronation.

Checking on RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls, Clinton and Trump are both likely to win IN, PA, MD, and CA.
 
You will see a more quite refined Trump from now on. Not the brash loud-mouthed man of the past. He has new advisors and speech writers.
 
angelo said:
You will see a more quite refined Trump from now on. Not the brash loud-mouthed man of the past. He has new advisors and speech writers.
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Ya, I don't think that "restraining himself" is something that Trump will be able to pull off.
 
Sanders is definitely trying to win me over by PZ Myers

He quotes Sanders is definitely trying to win me over by Mark the Mad Biologist, in turn from The significant differences between Hillary's and Bernie's higher ed plans (essay):
The plan Sanders proposed in Congress calls for providing “an assurance that not later than five years after the date of enactment of this act, not less than 75 percent of instruction at public institutions of higher education in the state is provided by tenured or tenure-track faculty.” This use of federal funds to restore tenure represents one of the many policies that one does not find in Clinton’s proposal.
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and
Sanders also wants to make sure that more money ends up in the classroom: “a state that receives a grant under this section shall use any remaining grant funds and matching funds required under this section to increase the quality of instruction and student support services by carrying out the following: A) Expanding academic course offerings to students. (B) Increasing the number and percentage of full-time instructional faculty. (C) Providing all faculty with professional supports to help students succeed, such as professional development opportunities, office space and shared governance in the institution. (D) Compensating part-time faculty for work done outside of the classroom relating to instruction, such as holding office hours….”
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Great proposals, but many right-wingers hate teachers, or at least often act like they do.
In perhaps his most radical and needed proposal, Sanders pushes these institutions to return to their core missions: “A state that receives a grant under this section may not use grant funds or matching funds required under this section (A) for the construction of nonacademic facilities, such as student centers or stadiums; (B) for merit-based student financial aid; or (C) to pay the salaries or benefits of school administrators.” Sanders’s plan would thus decrease the cost of making public higher education free by decreasing the costs associated with administration, athletics and merit-based aid that goes mostly to the wealthiest students.
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Great idea, but the right wing will forget about all their expressed contempt for bureaucrats and swoon with adoration at all these administrative bureaucrats. "More money for our beloved bureaucrats and less money for teachers. We have suffered so much under teachers' rule that it's time for some payback."
 
Sad to say, Sanders is losing except in Rhode Island.

Trump is smoking Cruz in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. The best Cruz did was 21.5% in Pennsylvania. MSNBC polling showed large numbers of GOP voters will not vote for Trump, even if he wins the nomination. Kasich has no chance at all. Except maybe vying for a VP spot. Cruz so far has not gained a single delegate. Cruz has even trailed Kasitch in Connecticut, Delaware. Maryland and Rhode Island. Goodbye Teddy!
 
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