Shadowy Man
Contributor
Between that and your DOGE check you’ll have it made!Still waiting for my Soros check.Presumably George Soros paid them to chant that.
Between that and your DOGE check you’ll have it made!Still waiting for my Soros check.Presumably George Soros paid them to chant that.
At the earliest. Could be a year from November, after the midterm, when shit truly merits fan. Prior to that, every effort will be made to persuade the electorate that everything is great, regardless of facts.The problem is that the impact of these issue probably won’t be apparent until the end of summer or around mid September at the earliest.
Of course the US economy is in bad shape. It has been in a worrisome condition ever since the 2001 recession was "fixed" with stimulus instead of being allowed to run its course. When you suppress the symptoms they come back stronger later, which happened in 2008. The economy since 2008 has been queasy, and the 2020 lockdowns were a disaster. Ending the lockdowns "created growth" according to some measures, but the stimulus during the lockdowns has made an inflation disaster that is only now easing.
The current situation has been building since 2001. The can got larger every time it got kicked down the road. We're running out of road to kick it down.
The US has defaulted on its debt obligations more than once in the past, so doing so again isn't outside the realm of possibility.
JamieDimon said:You’re going to see cracks in the bond market. I just don’t know whether that crisis is six months away or six years away. I’m telling you it will happen—and you will panic.
Of course the US economy is in bad shape. It has been in a worrisome condition ever since the 2001 recession was "fixed" with stimulus instead of being allowed to run its course. When you suppress the symptoms they come back stronger later, which happened in 2008. The economy since 2008 has been queasy, and the 2020 lockdowns were a disaster. Ending the lockdowns "created growth" according to some measures, but the stimulus during the lockdowns has made an inflation disaster that is only now easing.
The current situation has been building since 2001. The can got larger every time it got kicked down the road. We're running out of road to kick it down.
The US has defaulted on its debt obligations more than once in the past, so doing so again isn't outside the realm of possibility.
Most of your comment is either wrong or exaggerated but I'll comment myself with one question:
Where do you get the "more than once"? FDR stopped redeeming paper for gold in 1933, but IIRC any other "default" claim is nitpicking.
Of course the US economy is in bad shape. It has been in a worrisome condition ever since the 2001 recession was "fixed" with stimulus instead of being allowed to run its course. When you suppress the symptoms they come back stronger later, which happened in 2008. The economy since 2008 has been queasy, and the 2020 lockdowns were a disaster. Ending the lockdowns "created growth" according to some measures, but the stimulus during the lockdowns has made an inflation disaster that is only now easing.
The current situation has been building since 2001. The can got larger every time it got kicked down the road. We're running out of road to kick it down.
The US has defaulted on its debt obligations more than once in the past, so doing so again isn't outside the realm of possibility.
Most of your comment is either wrong or exaggerated but I'll comment myself with one question:
Where do you get the "more than once"? FDR stopped redeeming paper for gold in 1933, but IIRC any other "default" claim is nitpicking.
Except for the times the US has defaulted, it never has.
Perhaps the default of the continental currency in 1779 doesn't count because it was before the constitution.
There was also the partial default of 1782 but that was eventually paid - sort of. The funding act of 1790 repudiated the loans it was defaulting on, but offered to convert them into loans that would be redeemed on less favorable terms. So they did get paid, kind of, just not what was promised, so you probably don't consider that a default.
In 1862 there was the greenback default. The original greenbacks were redeemable in gold until the US Treasury defaulted on that. They were replaced with unbacked greenbacks after that. It was a wartime measure, but it was still a default.
You are familiar with the liberty bond default of 1934, you even mentioned it yourself. I am told "it wasn't a default they got paid". They loaned gold on the promise of gold, they got paid back in depreciated paper and told "take this or you get nothing at all". Half a loaf is better than none, so it is said, so they did get something. Still, I do count that as a default.
There was another one in 1968 which had the government refusing to honor the silver dollars the same way it had previously refused to redeem gold. This time the offer was to trade the silver backed dollar for an equivalently marked treasury note, very much like 1934.
Then there was 1971, the closing of the Bretton Woods window by Nixon. This time it was other countries that felt the brunt of the default, not domestic investors, but it does exist as well. Once again they were offered gold and got paper, so the diehard can claim there was no default.
Of course default isn't the end of the world, but to pretend it hasn't happened before is just foolish.
The 37th Congress (1861–1863) faced a financial crisis in 1862, as spiraling costs of war rapidly depleted the Union’s reserves of gold and silver coin, the only legal tender of the United States. After intense debate, Congress authorized the issuance of paper U.S. Notes (popularly called “greenbacks”), declaring them lawful money for all payments except interest on public debt and import duties. The Legal Tender Act, intended as an emergency measure, dramatically extended federal power and changed the nation’s monetary standard.
... Personally I feel that many types of inflation should NOT be tackled with interest hikes. In particular, raising interest rates are appropriate when "overheating" is pushing up wages, but the present inflation risks have other sources ...
And many more will fear arrest and deportation at their workplaces, and will quit working (or find work at places that they expct are less likely to be raided) until this all blows over.Supposely 200,000 immigrants have already been deported in 2025, but that figure may be misleading: Many "Wetbacks" are turned back early before they have a chance to enter the labor market.
Inflation disaster? It didn't even approach the 1970s. The global economy was jostled in the pandemic. Inflation began as a supply side issue, not stimulus problems. Stimulus would be on the down end. Stuff got more expensive because supply dropped and it rippled. Inflation we experienced was hardly a "disaster".Of course the US economy is in bad shape. It has been in a worrisome condition ever since the 2001 recession was "fixed" with stimulus instead of being allowed to run its course. When you suppress the symptoms they come back stronger later, which happened in 2008. The economy since 2008 has been queasy, and the 2020 lockdowns were a disaster. Ending the lockdowns "created growth" according to some measures, but the stimulus during the lockdowns has made an inflation disaster that is only now easing.
The current situation has been developing since 1981 with trickle down economics and the GOP embracing deficit spending to starve the beast. You say "kicking the can", this is the GOP's whole plan.The current situation has been building since 2001.
The can got larger every time it got kicked down the road. We're running out of road to kick it down.
Inflation disaster? It didn't even approach the 1970s. The global economy was jostled in the pandemic. Inflation began as a supply side issue, not stimulus problems. Stimulus would be on the down end. Stuff got more expensive because supply dropped and it rippled. Inflation we experienced was hardly a "disaster".Of course the US economy is in bad shape. It has been in a worrisome condition ever since the 2001 recession was "fixed" with stimulus instead of being allowed to run its course. When you suppress the symptoms they come back stronger later, which happened in 2008. The economy since 2008 has been queasy, and the 2020 lockdowns were a disaster. Ending the lockdowns "created growth" according to some measures, but the stimulus during the lockdowns has made an inflation disaster that is only now easing.
The current situation has been developing since 1981 with trickle down economics and the GOP embracing deficit spending to starve the beast. You say "kicking the can", this is the GOP's whole plan.The current situation has been building since 2001.
The can got larger every time it got kicked down the road. We're running out of road to kick it down.
In December 2020, Powell defended high asset prices by invoking the controversial Fed model [which argues that, very roughly stock earnings yield should equal bond yields], saying: "Admittedly P/Es are high but that's maybe not as relevant in a world where we think the 10-year Treasury is going to be lower than it's been historically from a return perspective". The author of the Fed model, Edward Yardeni, said Powell's actions could form the greatest financial bubble in history, while the Wall Street Journal described Powell's comparison as an attempt to "rewrite the laws of investing".
Start by comparing the yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries. Not surprisingly these numbers move closely together, with 30-year yield usually about 0.1% higher. Logical: The long duration carries risk and the extra 0.1% compensates for that risk. But right now, the yield difference is a whopping 0.3%. In effect, the market "thinks" that between 2035 and 2055 the dollar may lose value.
Or that interest will be higher in that period.Start by comparing the yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries. Not surprisingly these numbers move closely together, with 30-year yield usually about 0.1% higher. Logical: The long duration carries risk and the extra 0.1% compensates for that risk. But right now, the yield difference is a whopping 0.3%. In effect, the market "thinks" that between 2035 and 2055 the dollar may lose value.