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What would happen if the health insurance economy collapsed

I don't think that the health care insurance companies are at risk of collapse. They never before ObamaCare had a large number of private, at risk, individual health care policies. Their main business was to administer the self-insurance of businesses who employ more than 50 people. ObamaCare put them into the single person at risk policy business by offering them federal subsidies.
I heard recently that private individual policies are only about 5% of all of the health care insurance business including VA, Medicare, Medicaid. So I agree with Don, the major insurance carriers are in no danger of collapsing, imploding, exploding or whatever other scare-word the Republicans are using in lock-step this week.

ObamaCare can't survive long with the Republicans in power, no matter what happened today with the TrumpCare fiasco. They can subject ObamaCare to a death of a thousand cuts. They dealt ObamaCare a serious blow by burying a single sentence in an otherwise unrelated bill when they weren't in power that killed the risk channel of ObamaCare, the reason that the premiums jumped and insurers dropped out of some of the exchanges in 2016, before the election.
Agree with Don again - and "death of a thousand cuts" is a perfect way to put it.

There was an interesting perspective from one of the Senators this morning. He pointed out that Trump used to be vocally in favor of a single-payer system and/or a public option in the current system. He was expressing hope that since Paul Ryan's plan has clearly crashed and burned, Democratic and moderate Republican leaders might be able to get Trump's support for a public option.

If Trump were not a malignant narcissistic egomaniac, I might have some hope, too. Unfortunately, he will never ever cooperate with any congress person who voted against "TrumpCare" even though he himself hated Ryan's plan
 
They dealt ObamaCare a serious blow by burying a single sentence in an otherwise unrelated bill when they weren't in power that killed the risk channel of ObamaCare, the reason that the premiums jumped and insurers dropped out of some of the exchanges in 2016, before the election.

And why were the Dems asleep at the switch when that happened?

Whether or not he can explain that has nothing to do with whether or not what he said is true.
 
They dealt ObamaCare a serious blow by burying a single sentence in an otherwise unrelated bill when they weren't in power that killed the risk channel of ObamaCare, the reason that the premiums jumped and insurers dropped out of some of the exchanges in 2016, before the election.

And why were the Dems asleep at the switch when that happened?

Yes, they were. The provision that they killed was the rail channel, not the risk channel. It was a provision that paid money to an insurance company that signed on too many patients who had long delayed procedures that they had done immediately. There was a lot of this and needless to say the lack of enough premiums being received and so many major surgeries being performed meant that some unlucky companies lost a large amount of money in the early phase of the exchanges. There was also a second wave of this type of problem, hidden medical problems that showed up after a year or two of preventive care

The money for the payments comes from the lucky companies that signed up an overwhelming numbers of healthy people and who had a loss ratio better than 0.8. That is, they had excess profits. This is an equalizing scheme in other words.

It is worth noting that the Republican written Medicare drug benefit has a permanent rail channel, so the Republicans aren't philosophically opposed to the idea. They wrote this provision to force some companies to raise their rates dramatically or to withdraw from the exchanges or even in some cases to go bankrupt. Exactly what happened so that the Republicans could point to this and say that ObamaCare is failing.

This could be changed by another single sentence.
 
But the biggest loser is Trump himself. He may not yet even understand it yet, but today marked the effective end of his presidency.

It is now obvious to everyone in Washington that he is in over his head. He is incompetent. He did everything completely wrong. He backed a loser bill that made no one happy. Doctors were against it. Hospitals were against it. The insurance companies were against it. The AARP was against it. He had no visible understanding of what was in the bill. His attention span was what, three weeks on health care. The ACA took Obama about eighteen months.

Fine example of short attention span Donnie who thought policy-making was as simplistic as one sentence soundbites.
 
But the biggest loser is Trump himself. He may not yet even understand it yet, but today marked the effective end of his presidency.

It is now obvious to everyone in Washington that he is in over his head. He is incompetent. He did everything completely wrong. He backed a loser bill that made no one happy. Doctors were against it. Hospitals were against it. The insurance companies were against it. The AARP was against it. He had no visible understanding of what was in the bill. His attention span was what, three weeks on health care. The ACA took Obama about eighteen months.

Fine example of short attention span Donnie who thought policy-making was as simplistic as one sentence soundbites.

Who knew health care could be so complicated.
 
Agreed. But I don't think that the health care insurance companies will risk their companies in the way that Wall Street hung themselves out, in 2000 to 2007. Wall Street knew that they were selling junk. But they got caught in their own rhetoric and sell's pitches, that they ended up buying a substantial amount of their own junk. I think that the insurance companies are a breed apart from Wall Street. They make their livings by accessing risk. At least I hope that they are.

The intrinsic truth about health care is that it will never lend itself to the market. It never has in any country in the world. There is considerable amount of evidence that the opposite is true, that the countries with the greatest amount of for profit in the health care industry are the countries with the highest health care costs.

The driving force behind any Republican health care bill will be to loose the free market on it. The power of decades of supporting a fantasy. I don't know where we can go from here.

The business model of health insurance is predicated on the premise that a person is entitled to all the health care they can afford. Health insurance simply expands this group of people, and it is a profitable model. The group contributes to the pot and takes out, as needed.

The problem arises when the premise shifts to, "all people are entitled to healthcare." A lot of people can't afford to contribute, but still need to take out. This really cuts into profits.

The GOP ideology of the free market health insurance, simply won't work, unless it restricts itself to those who can afford minimal payments. There is no way to "cover everybody" in the free market, because the profit margin drops to the point where some other opportunity will attract the capital.

If health insurance remains a private business and we have universal coverage, the only business model which works is the public utility. This means a government sanctioned and regulated monopoly, where service standards are set by law, a certain percent return on investment is allowed and efficiency is rewarded. Those who can't pay receive subsidies for their premiums. This is basically the Obamacare model, without the monopoly.

This is true. And needless to say, if you cover everybody, if you provide everyone with health care, there is no reason to do it through private, for profit insurance companies. We have more than twenty years of proof of this in the Medicare Advantage program. The Republicans passed this years ago, to prove that private, for profit insurance companies were more efficient running Medicare than the government was. Not too surprisingly this proved the opposite, that the government was much more efficient at providing Medicare than the private companies. The private companies still have to be subsidized even while they are able to cherry pick who they sign up, and the government has to cover everyone else.

The most widely used and proven model around the world is not single payer. It is the Bismark model that uses private, non-profit, community rate based companies, used since the 1870's in Germany. It was spread to most of Europe by Hitler and the Nazis into the countries that they occupied in World War II. It was continued in virtually all of the countries after the war because it is so efficient, although it is slightly less efficient than single payer.

Briefly, there are about 200 of these non-profit insurance companies in Germany. For the most part they are run by labor unions or industrial trade groups. They charge everyone the same premium, a community rate. This means that the young and the healthy subsidize the old and the sick. They pay 70 or 80% of the medical bill. The policies coverage is the same for every company like ObamaCare*. The insurance is paid for nominally half by your employer and half by you, although most employers cover the whole cost. You can chose which ever company that you want but the premiums don't vary much and most people go with the insurance company associated with their union or company trade group. You can buy a policy from your insurance company that covers your 20 or 30% co-payment and I believe that the insurance companies are allowed to make a small profit on these policies. Mine was about €250 a month. When I was in Germany around the turn of the century they didn't have any deductibles.

You can opp out of the system and buy private insurance, but once you are out you can never come back in. So the young and healthy pay less, but the old and sick pay considerably more.

I may not know about all of the options available. I was assigned a secretary to help me adjust to German ways. I quickly found out that she helped me by doing everything and informing me what she had done after she had done it. This is apparently the German way.

All of the providers are paid the same for the same procedures. These rates are set every year by three part negotiations between the providers' industry group, the insurance industry group and the government in each German state. This relieves the requirement that each insurance company has to negotiate with each provider as they have to do in the US and eliminates the US's problem of your insurance company limiting the providers, doctors and hospitals that you can go to, a requirement that the Germans wouldn't stand for.

All is not rosy in Germany, with the health care. Costs are increasing faster than the cost of living. This is because the same thing is happening there that happened in the US in the last three decades of the 20th century, the hospitals and clinics are being bought up by for profit companies.



* By the way, this saves a lot of money because the providers don't have to check coverage, and they don't have to get pre-approvals and they don't have to argue with the insurance company about billing like they have to do in the US. This is not a trivial cost. The McKinsey Group estimated that providers spent over 400 billion dollars a year doing these things in the US in 2007. This is why ObamaCare standardized the policies, not to force everyone to buy coverage that they don't want or need. In fact, in ObamaCare while men are covered for mammograms they aren't charged premiums for them, because they are males.
 
Keeping these health insurance corporation dinosaurs alive is like keeping the horse shoeing industry alive after the advent of the automobile.

Health insurance is something that should be removed from profit seeking organizations.

That is how you reduce costs and control costs.

At best there is a conflict of interest in the pharma industry between providing cost effective medicines and making huge profits.

Universal health insurance and aggressive negotiation with big pharma as a whole nation would greatly reduce drug costs.

You wouldn't have to touch the pharmaceutical industry at all.
 
At best there is a conflict of interest in the pharma industry between providing cost effective medicines and making huge profits.

Universal health insurance and aggressive negotiation with big pharma as a whole nation would greatly reduce drug costs.

You wouldn't have to touch the pharmaceutical industry at all.

Good points. In fact there are several generic products on the market. However I also believe that some doctors prescribe whole batteries of medications. A friend of mine has a whole drawer full of them and still has to keep seeing the doctor.

In fact an insurance deducted from every persons (with provisions to cover the unemployed and retired) can produce if well managed a low cost insurance for all. I'm not sure how this is done in the USA already.
 
Whether or not he can explain that has nothing to do with whether or not what he said is true.
I am not doubting what he said was true. I am asking a sincere question.

Conservatives are always complaining about how large and complex bills are.

We all know that politicians from both parties rarely read the entire bills they vote on.

Exactly what was the point of your question?
 
Universal health insurance and aggressive negotiation with big pharma as a whole nation would greatly reduce drug costs.

You wouldn't have to touch the pharmaceutical industry at all.

Good points. In fact there are several generic products on the market. However I also believe that some doctors prescribe whole batteries of medications. A friend of mine has a whole drawer full of them and still has to keep seeing the doctor.

In fact an insurance deducted from every persons (with provisions to cover the unemployed and retired) can produce if well managed a low cost insurance for all. I'm not sure how this is done in the USA already.

In the US there is Medicare D that covers some of the costs of medications for people over age 65.

Each year it buys drugs for tens of millions of people.

But it is forbidden by law from using it's huge buying power to negotiate lower drug prices.

It is as if Big Pharma wrote the law.
 
It would be nice if Trump would resign now and not put the whole ship of state through his inept leadership completely aground on the rocks and broken. He is simply a boob along with his sunshine pals Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnel. They are the proof that being a bullies a racists, bigots and sometimes a billionaire does not qualify a person for political office and can in fact be a disqualifier.

It is not a question of what government should do so much as a question of whether a government can survive being run by lunatic narcissists with self enrichment and agradizement agendas. These people are really dangerous. Some of their actions smack of murderous intent...every bit as bad as ISIS...in fact potentially far more fatal to far more people.:thinking:
 
Good points. In fact there are several generic products on the market. However I also believe that some doctors prescribe whole batteries of medications. A friend of mine has a whole drawer full of them and still has to keep seeing the doctor.

In fact an insurance deducted from every persons (with provisions to cover the unemployed and retired) can produce if well managed a low cost insurance for all. I'm not sure how this is done in the USA already.

In the US there is Medicare D that covers some of the costs of medications for people over age 65.

Each year it buys drugs for tens of millions of people.

But it is forbidden by law from using it's huge buying power to negotiate lower drug prices.

It is as if Big Pharma wrote the law.

Maybe Pharma did write the laws. :)
 
Universal health insurance and aggressive negotiation with big pharma as a whole nation would greatly reduce drug costs.

You wouldn't have to touch the pharmaceutical industry at all.

Good points. In fact there are several generic products on the market. However I also believe that some doctors prescribe whole batteries of medications. A friend of mine has a whole drawer full of them and still has to keep seeing the doctor.

In fact an insurance deducted from every persons (with provisions to cover the unemployed and retired) can produce if well managed a low cost insurance for all. I'm not sure how this is done in the USA already.

It's not going to be cheap, healthcare is expensive.
 
I don't think that the health care insurance companies are at risk of collapse. They never before ObamaCare had a large number of private, at risk, individual health care policies. Their main business was to administer the self-insurance of businesses who employ more than 50 people. ObamaCare put them into the single person at risk policy business by offering them federal subsidies.

ObamaCare can't survive long with the Republicans in power, no matter what happened today with the TrumpCare fiasco. They can subject ObamaCare to a death of a thousand cuts. They dealt ObamaCare a serious blow by burying a single sentence in an otherwise unrelated bill when they weren't in power that killed the risk channel of ObamaCare, the reason that the premiums jumped and insurers dropped out of some of the exchanges in 2016, before the election.
Well we know at least ONE of those companies dropped not due to losing money, but in an attempt to force the DOJ into a merger with Humana. Given that Anthem and Cigna were also planning a merger, I think some of this "pulling out" continues to be political blackmail.
 
Good points. In fact there are several generic products on the market. However I also believe that some doctors prescribe whole batteries of medications. A friend of mine has a whole drawer full of them and still has to keep seeing the doctor.

In fact an insurance deducted from every persons (with provisions to cover the unemployed and retired) can produce if well managed a low cost insurance for all. I'm not sure how this is done in the USA already.

It's not going to be cheap, healthcare is expensive.

One way to make health insurance a lot cheaper for everybody would be to just lower the age of Medicare to 50.

It would cost a tiny bit in taxes, but would take a huge burden off the private insurance industry which could lower prices.

That is something that could be set up in less than a year and would yield immediate savings.

Then you slowly move to health insurance for everybody.
 
It's not going to be cheap, healthcare is expensive.

One way to make health insurance a lot cheaper for everybody would be to just lower the age of Medicare to 50.

It would cost a tiny bit in taxes, but would take a huge burden off the private insurance industry which could lower prices.

That is something that could be set up in less than a year and would yield immediate savings.

Then you slowly move to health insurance for everybody.

That would have been a better plan than Obamacare, but too late no. But to lower health care the government will have to have the backbone to tell people they don't need medical services. Only way to save on medical costs is to ration it.
 
That would have been a better plan than Obamacare, but too late no. But to lower health care the government will have to have the backbone to tell people they don't need medical services. Only way to save on medical costs is to ration it.

Or have the backbone to tell people that saving on medical costs is down the list of priorities when it comes to medical care, so they need to pay more so that it won't be rationed as much.
 
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